grabowski
c50417668b
The current plan (user decision, October 2026) replaces the 50/50 target (two semi-automatic presses and two Pheenix AD12s) with an all-Newbilt fleet of five presses: two Duplex systems in Newbilt's two-extruder configuration (two HRP 12 presses, an extruder each, one hydraulic unit) and one Classic fully automatic press. - pressing-line.md: new "Current plan" section (fleet table, what it means, phasing from the Single 2.1 as the first half of system 1, re-quote questions); site requirements per Duplex system. - scale.md: capacity table and basis (368 to 448 records/h, ~1.06 to 1.5M a year on two shifts, same range as before); pressing electrical row; steam and cooling flagged, not re-based: five presses draw ~750 to 900 kg/h of steam and up to ~625 kW of cooling at Newbilt's per-press figures, against the 400 kg/h / 250 kW sized for one Duplex. - total-investment.md: fleet change as an added-scope row (system 2 ~230k-300k and the Classic ~290k-460k, estimates; -60k / -160k against the two blocks it replaces); headline unchanged until the re-base. - roadmap items 4, 5 and 24, revenue model mature row, crane doc (the Classic's weight now decides 5 t or 3.2 t), vendor landscape (AD12 is the comparison for the Classic), README. The business plan docx is not regenerated.
161 lines
9.1 KiB
Markdown
161 lines
9.1 KiB
Markdown
# Roadmap
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Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated
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by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move.
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Rough durations are estimates.
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## Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now)
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These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
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1. **Market validation**: test the 3.50 to 4.60 USD blended pressing price
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and regional demand with Asian labels and distributors, starting at
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Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest
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assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the
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financing case waits on it. **Partially started**: a first buy-side
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data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are
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recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on
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per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no
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HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest
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argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Making Vinyl
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Europe 2026 added supply-side evidence (strong interest in the
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traceability approach, see the
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[exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show)),
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but no buyer prices yet. Carry the
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open run-size question into these conversations. The
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[artist platform](artist-platform.md)'s price calculator, published
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early with indicative prices and an interest list but no payments,
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collects that run-size distribution from everyone who configures a
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record.
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2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity
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sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and
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R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes
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company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision
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timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to
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certificate in practice.
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3. **60 rai title check**: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal
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status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the
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[biomass plan](biomass.md); if it clears, plant the coppice immediately
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so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase.
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## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window)
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4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired) for the current fleet: the
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two-extruder Duplex as the Single 2.1 upgrade and as a second system,
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the Classic automatic press, and a central hydraulic supply option
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([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)), with PLC/data access as a
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stated purchasing requirement per the
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[traceability spec](traceability.md)
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5. **Pheenix Alpha**: the AD12 left the current fleet plan in October
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2026 (an all-Newbilt fleet); Pheenix stays the comparison for the
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Classic and a galvanics candidate (item 6). After Haarlem the CEO offered a Teams call,
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reference clients and a factory visit near Stockholm; the call follows
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once our questions are ready, and the next Europe trip is planned
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for February 2027 ([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show))
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6. **Galvanics quotes**: Digital Matrix, and Pheenix Alpha in the same
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conversation as item 5 (it builds the electroforming line too), plus
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OMS (Optical Media Services), named by Sibert as the alternative to a
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Pheenix turnkey line (reference prices of 9 October 2026: EUR 224,000
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basic and 311,000 advanced for a 4-cell wet room, installation extra; a
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dedicated offer needs our plans, ideally after a visit to Baarlo), and
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Sibert's itemised quotation for the stamper
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prep machines (a USD 250k budget for all three is confirmed, its time,
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spares, shipping and travel extra); equipment data in
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[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md). In parallel,
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identify the separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge
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system
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7. **Thai utility RFQs** from the candidates in the
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[utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv), with guaranteed
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northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH
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floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever)
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8. **Solar/BESS engineering check**: match the Gobel rack voltage to the
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chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms,
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confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus
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9. **Site selection**: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang
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(Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent
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treatment and licensing simplicity) and, since October 2026, Payap
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University land in Chiang Mai ([site candidates](site-candidates.md)),
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screened against the
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[scale requirements](scale.md): 6 to 8 rai, 1,400 to 2,000 m² single
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story (including the workshop and visitor corridor), multiple tons per
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m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection, and a frame able to carry an
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overhead crane
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## Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing)
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10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate
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11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must
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arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from
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certificate issuance
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12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only
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with land privileges under BOI)
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13. Order long-lead items: mastering lathe (Agnew or Sillitoe, both built
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to order, or second-hand through the contacts OMS named, see
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[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)),
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stamper-prep machines, first utility packages
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14. Engage Stamper Discs for the bridge-stamper relationship with written
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turnaround SLAs, and settle where lacquers are cut meanwhile: SST in
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Frankfurt already cuts for Poy Records and offered help after Haarlem
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([vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md#lacquer-cutting-service-schallplatten-schneid-technik-germany))
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## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)
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15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities,
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solar and BESS installation, security systems per
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[facility-security.md](facility-security.md), and the overhead crane,
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maintenance workshop and visitor corridor per
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[crane-workshop-tours.md](crane-workshop-tours.md) (the crane-ready
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frame itself is in the construction RFQ, so it is decided before the
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shell is ordered)
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16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site
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commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate
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card)
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17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry
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capture (spec in [traceability.md](traceability.md), systems and build
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order in [digital-factory.md](digital-factory.md); the network, servers
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and edge collectors go in before the machinery arrives)
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18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the
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equipment, not after it
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## Phase 4: Launch (pressing with bridge stampers)
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19. First test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
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20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the
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regional pitch. Fan-funded campaigns on the
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[artist platform](artist-platform.md) open only after these first
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releases have shipped and lead times are measured
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21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound
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against the European references
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## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)
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22. Duplex expansion (second press and extruder are already quoted options)
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23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep; see
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[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)) with the
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zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
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**Open question: should this move to Phase 1?** The August 2026 market
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evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press
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capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's
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spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the
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[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md). Sibert, which would sell
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into this line, advised after Haarlem to get presses, boilers,
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operators and live feedback loops right first and to earn some return
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before every manufacturing step is in place
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([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show));
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supplier advice to weigh against the market evidence, not a decision
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24. Second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic automatic press, which
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complete the five-press fleet ([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md))
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25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
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26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
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27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand
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shows up in Phase 4, or to host the joint audio engineering programme
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with Payap University, see [Payap partnership](payap-partnership.md))
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## Standing principle
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Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
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before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
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validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
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The phased entry (~1.7M to 2.9M USD) is the default path; the full vision
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(~4.7M to 8.9M USD) is reached through it, not instead of it.
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