cnx_vinyl/docs/roadmap.md

Roadmap

Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move. Rough durations are estimates.

Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now)

These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:

1. Market validation: test the 3.50 to 4.60 USD blended pressing price and regional demand with Asian labels and distributors, starting at Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest assumption in the revenue model; the financing case waits on it. Partially started: a first buy-side data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Making Vinyl Europe 2026 added supply-side evidence (strong interest in the traceability approach, see the exhibitor briefing), but no buyer prices yet. Carry the open run-size question into these conversations. The artist platform's price calculator, published early with indicative prices and an interest list but no payments, collects that run-size distribution from everyone who configures a record.
2. BOI track: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and R&D measures stack (see boi.md). The application precedes company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to certificate in practice.
3. 60 rai title check: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the biomass plan; if it clears, plant the coppice immediately so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase.

Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window)

4. Newbilt re-quote (2024 offer expired) for the current fleet: the two-extruder Duplex as the Single 2.1 upgrade and as a second system, the Classic automatic press, and a central hydraulic supply option (pressing line), with PLC/data access as a stated purchasing requirement per the traceability spec
5. Pheenix Alpha: the AD12 left the current fleet plan in October 2026 (an all-Newbilt fleet); Pheenix stays the comparison for the Classic and a galvanics candidate (item 6). After Haarlem the CEO offered a Teams call, reference clients and a factory visit near Stockholm; the call follows once our questions are ready, and the next Europe trip is planned for February 2027 (exhibitor briefing)
6. Galvanics quotes: Digital Matrix, and Pheenix Alpha in the same conversation as item 5 (it builds the electroforming line too), plus OMS (Optical Media Services), named by Sibert as the alternative to a Pheenix turnkey line (reference prices of 9 October 2026: EUR 224,000 basic and 311,000 advanced for a 4-cell wet room, installation extra; a dedicated offer needs our plans, ideally after a visit to Baarlo), and Sibert's itemised quotation for the stamper prep machines (a USD 250k budget for all three is confirmed, its time, spares, shipping and travel extra); equipment data in galvanics and stamper prep. In parallel, identify the separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge system
7. Thai utility RFQs from the candidates in the utilities CSV, with guaranteed northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever)
8. Solar/BESS engineering check: match the Gobel rack voltage to the chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms, confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus
9. Site selection: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang (Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent treatment and licensing simplicity) and, since October 2026, Payap University land in Chiang Mai (site candidates), screened against the scale requirements: 6 to 8 rai, 1,400 to 2,000 m² single story (including the workshop and visitor corridor), multiple tons per m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection, and a frame able to carry an overhead crane

Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing)

10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate
11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from certificate issuance
12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only with land privileges under BOI)
13. Order long-lead items: mastering lathe (Agnew or Sillitoe, both built to order, or second-hand through the contacts OMS named, see vendor landscape), stamper-prep machines, first utility packages
14. Engage Stamper Discs for the bridge-stamper relationship with written turnaround SLAs, and settle where lacquers are cut meanwhile: SST in Frankfurt already cuts for Poy Records and offered help after Haarlem (vendor landscape)

Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)

15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities, solar and BESS installation, security systems per facility-security.md, and the overhead crane, maintenance workshop and visitor corridor per crane-workshop-tours.md (the crane-ready frame itself is in the construction RFQ, so it is decided before the shell is ordered)
16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate card)
17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry capture (spec in traceability.md, systems and build order in digital-factory.md; the network, servers and edge collectors go in before the machinery arrives)
18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the equipment, not after it

Phase 4: Launch (pressing with bridge stampers)

19. First test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the regional pitch. Fan-funded campaigns on the artist platform open only after these first releases have shipped and lead times are measured
21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound against the European references

Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)

22. Duplex expansion (second press and extruder are already quoted options)
23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep; see galvanics and stamper prep) with the zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup. Open question: should this move to Phase 1? The August 2026 market evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the revenue model. Sibert, which would sell into this line, advised after Haarlem to get presses, boilers, operators and live feedback loops right first and to earn some return before every manufacturing step is in place (exhibitor briefing); supplier advice to weigh against the market evidence, not a decision
24. Second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic automatic press, which complete the five-press fleet (pressing line)
25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand shows up in Phase 4, or to host the joint audio engineering programme with Payap University, see Payap partnership)

Standing principle

Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check. The phased entry (~1.7M to 2.9M USD) is the default path; the full vision (~4.7M to 8.9M USD) is reached through it, not instead of it.