User, 19 Oct 2026: build the deck again but focus on Plan B, the main investor wants to go with that. - Proposes Plan B, ~217M THB at the midpoint (~6.56M USD), labelled ~215M; Plan A (~182M) only as the comparison. Every running footer, source line and speaker note now presents Plan B. - New slide 9 "Why Plan B": ownership and control, not a higher modelled return (owned roof PV and battery instead of a PPA, full metrology from the first release, corridor and tours from day one, cassette and CD-R, bought crane, Thai utilities; ~34.5M THB together); Plan A has the better modelled return, owning the array earns no BOI tax benefit. - Investment by block for Plan B with low-high ranges, the "what Plan B buys" table, no contingency (~30M at 15 %); operating picture, cash curve (payback ~4.2, IRR ~22 %, NPV ~4.7M USD) and BOI slide (equity at least ~54M THB at 3:1, owned PV and battery as collateral) for B; B-specific risks; the ask with the Plan B tranches only. - Plan B renders replace the Plan A ones; PDF regenerated, 16 pages, 1.5 MB. - README and landing page entries say 16 slides and Plan B. - Checks: every slide at 1920/1440/1280/390 px without overflow, navigation and presenter sync, PDF pages and text, no em dashes.
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@@ -316,8 +316,9 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents:
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same output, payback ~3.8 years on ~217M THB: its extra pays back
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through what the table leaves out), the five-press table, and the levers and
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caveats behind the numbers
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- [Investor deck](docs/pitch/index.html) (October 2026): the plant in 15
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web slides for BOI, bank and institutional readers, both plans, with a
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- [Investor deck](docs/pitch/index.html) (October 2026): the plant in 16
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web slides for BOI, bank and institutional readers, proposing Plan B
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(~215M THB) with Plan A as the comparison, with a
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presenter view (press P) and a
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[PDF](docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck.pdf); every figure carries its
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source in the business plan or the owning doc
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/* ---------- slide 12 ---------- */
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/* ---------- Plan B additions ---------- */
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/* Palatino's descent runs below the line box: keep it inside the element */
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h1,h2,.stat .v,.s1 .keys .v,.big3 .v,.tot2 .v,.fin .need .v,.ask .v,.kp4 .v,.chain .nm,.flow .fs .nm,.ppl .nm,.pill4 .h,.feat .h,.unl .h{padding-bottom:.1em}
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h1{padding-bottom:.14em}
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@@ -316,27 +337,27 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
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<!-- 1 -->
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<section class="slide s1 grooves" data-title="CNX Vinyl">
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<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Investment proposal<span class="no">· Draft for discussion · October 2026</span></div>
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<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Investment proposal: Plan B, ~215M THB<span class="no">· Draft for discussion · October 2026</span></div>
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<div class="bd">
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<div>
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<h1>CNX Vinyl</h1>
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<p class="sub">A full-chain vinyl record plant for Asia-Pacific, in Chiang Mai, Thailand</p>
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<p class="plans">Investment proposal, Plans A (~180M THB) and B (~215M THB), October 2026, draft. One plant, two ways to fund it.</p>
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<p class="plans">Investment proposal: <b>Plan B, ~215M THB</b>, the launch plant with everything in. October 2026, draft. Plan A, the lowest-capital variant (~182M THB), appears only as the comparison.</p>
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<div class="keys">
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<div><div class="v">~182M</div><div class="l">THB, Plan A at the midpoint, labelled ~180M: six cost levers</div></div>
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<div><div class="v b">~217M</div><div class="l">THB, Plan B at the midpoint, labelled ~215M: everything in</div></div>
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<div><div class="v">0.58 to 0.90M</div><div class="l">records a year at 60 % specials, the same three presses in both <span class="e">est.</span></div></div>
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<div><div class="v">~217M</div><div class="l">THB at the midpoint (~6.56M USD), labelled ~215M: ramp-up reserve in, no contingency</div></div>
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<div><div class="v">0.58 to 0.90M</div><div class="l">records a year at 60 % specials on three Newbilt presses <span class="e">est.</span></div></div>
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<div><div class="v">Whole chain</div><div class="l">cutting, galvanics, stamper prep and pressing in-house from the first release</div></div>
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</div>
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<p class="by">Simona Meesaiyati, Project Lead · Alexander Grabowski, Technical Consultant · supported by buildfor.life · label name Poy Records</p>
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</div>
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<figure>
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<div class="fig"><img src="img/plan-a-cover.webp" width="1800" height="1010" alt="Isometric render of the planned plant: factory hall with solar roof, office, utility yard, car park and road"></div>
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<figcaption>Plan A as the plant and business plan calculator draws it: schematic, on the Payap scenario layout and a placeholder plot. The site is not decided.</figcaption>
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<div class="fig"><img src="img/plan-b-cover.webp" width="1800" height="1010" alt="Isometric render of the planned plant: factory hall with the owned solar array on its roof, office, utility yard, car park and road"></div>
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<figcaption>Plan B as the plant and business plan calculator draws it: the owned ~520 kWp array on the factory roof, office roof and canopies PV-ready. Schematic, on the Payap scenario layout and a placeholder plot; the site is not decided.</figcaption>
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</figure>
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</div>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plans A and B, draft 0.3 (October 2026), cover and section 1; total-investment.md "Two plans". Render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan A preset. Both prices include the 10M to 20M THB ramp-up reserve and carry no contingency.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">CNX Vinyl, label name Poy Records, is a planned record plant near Chiang Mai with the whole chain under one roof: cutting, plating, pressing, packaging and fulfilment. We present two versions of one plant. Plan A is about 182M THB at the midpoint, labelled 180M, with six cost levers; Plan B is about 217M THB, labelled 215M, with everything in. Both include the 10M to 20M THB ramp-up reserve and neither carries a contingency. Both run the same three presses. Every figure comes from business plan draft 0.3 and the planning repository, and estimates are labelled. Nothing is ordered, signed or sited yet. Sources: business plan A, section 1; total-investment.md "Two plans".</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, draft 0.3 (October 2026), cover and section 1; total-investment.md "Two plans". Render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan B preset (business plan B, figure 8). The price includes the 10M to 20M THB ramp-up reserve and carries no contingency.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">CNX Vinyl, label name Poy Records, is a planned record plant near Chiang Mai with the whole chain under one roof. We propose Plan B: about 217M THB at the midpoint, labelled 215M, everything in, reserve included, no contingency. The main investor wants to go with Plan B. If asked why not Plan A: it builds the same three presses for about 182M by leasing the roof array, renting a crane, taking a Chinese compressor and deferring metrology, the corridor and cassette and CD-R; slide 9 sets out plainly what Plan B's extra buys and what it does not earn. Nothing is ordered or signed yet. Sources: business plan B, section 1; total-investment.md "Two plans".</aside>
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</section>
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<!-- 2 -->
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@@ -367,9 +388,9 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
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</ul>
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</div>
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</div>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan A, sections 1, 3.1 to 3.3 and 9.1; revenue-model.md "First market data point" and "Record Industry's calculator"; roadmap.md item 1. THB at 33 per USD.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">The customer we serve presses abroad today. Lead times have normalised to roughly 10 to 16 weeks for a standard black LP, but freight, time zones and the queue remain. The one Thai shop we have seen presses only; its stampers come from abroad, so short runs and represses are slow and expensive. On price, our assumption of USD 3.76 to 5.27 a record sits between the European ex-works level of about USD 2.43 and the Thai market. Be clear with lenders: buyer-side validation, roadmap item 1, is still open, and the Thai evidence is one supplier and one afternoon. The financing case waits on it. Sources: business plan A, sections 3.1 to 3.3; revenue-model.md; roadmap.md.</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 1, 3.1 to 3.3 and 9.1; revenue-model.md "First market data point" and "Record Industry's calculator"; roadmap.md item 1. THB at 33 per USD.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">The customer we serve presses abroad today. Lead times have normalised to roughly 10 to 16 weeks for a standard black LP, but freight, time zones and the queue remain. The one Thai shop we have seen presses only; its stampers come from abroad, so short runs and represses are slow and expensive. On price, our assumption of USD 3.76 to 5.27 a record sits between the European ex-works level of about USD 2.43 and the Thai market. Be clear with lenders: buyer-side validation, roadmap item 1, is still open, and the Thai evidence is one supplier and one afternoon. The financing case waits on it. Sources: business plan B, sections 3.1 to 3.3; revenue-model.md; roadmap.md.</aside>
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</section>
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<!-- 3 -->
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@@ -395,17 +416,18 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
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</div>
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<ul class="list sm" style="margin-top:26px">
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<li><b>Metal archive:</b> the father and the mother of every side are kept, so a repress starts from our own metal: 2 to 3 weeks from an archived mother (planning figure).</li>
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<li><b>Growth from revenue, not in either price:</b> a second Duplex system lifts output to ~1.0 to 1.5M records a year; its floor, utility positions and pipe tees are reserved.</li>
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<li><b>Also from launch:</b> cassette and CD-R duplication in-house. Full CD replication is a separate investor decision, outside the price.</li>
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<li><b>Growth from revenue, not in the plan price:</b> a second Duplex system lifts output to ~1.0 to 1.5M records a year; its floor, utility positions and pipe tees are reserved.</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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<figure>
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<div class="fig"><img src="img/plan-a-iso-hall.webp" width="1800" height="1010" alt="Isometric view of the press hall with the Duplex system, the Classic and reserved bays"></div>
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<figcaption>Press hall, Plan A preset: Duplex system 1 and the Classic; dashed bays are reserved for growth. Schematic (fleet-calculator.html).</figcaption>
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<div class="fig"><img src="img/plan-b-iso-hall.webp" width="1800" height="1010" alt="Isometric view of the press hall with the Duplex system, the Classic, the crane, the visitor corridor and reserved bays"></div>
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<figcaption>Press hall, Plan B preset: Duplex system 1 and the Classic, the 5 t crane, the visitor corridor and the cassette and CD-R rooms; dashed bays reserved for growth. Schematic (fleet-calculator.html).</figcaption>
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</figure>
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</div>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan A, sections 1, 4.0 to 4.4 and 4.7; total-investment.md "Launch plant"; scale.md; production-timeline.md; equipment/pressing-line.md.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">This is a plant, not a pressing shop: the cutting room, galvanics and stamper preparation are in-house from the first release, so there are no bridge stampers and no outsourced cutting. Three Newbilt presses: a Duplex system of two semi-automatic presses with a colour extruder, and one fully automatic Classic at about 128 records an hour (vendor flyer). At the planned 60 % special pressings the Duplex sets the pace: 0.58 to 0.90 million records a year on two shifts, central 0.74 million; the calculator gives about 0.94 million at the team's planning rates. Expect the question why the whole chain at once; the answer is on the risk slide. Sources: business plan A, sections 4.0 to 4.4; scale.md.</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 1, 4.0 to 4.4, 4.7 and 4.9, figure 10; total-investment.md "Launch plant"; scale.md; production-timeline.md; equipment/pressing-line.md.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">This is a plant, not a pressing shop: cutting, galvanics and stamper preparation are in-house from the first release, with no bridge stampers. Three Newbilt presses: a Duplex system of two semi-automatic presses with a colour extruder, and one fully automatic Classic at about 128 records an hour (vendor flyer). At the planned 60 % special pressings the Duplex sets the pace: 0.58 to 0.90 million records a year on two shifts, central 0.74 million; the calculator gives about 0.94 million at the team's planning rates. Why the whole chain at once is answered on the risk slide. In Plan B the cassette and CD-R lines run from launch too. Sources: business plan B, sections 4.0 to 4.4; scale.md.</aside>
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</section>
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<!-- 4 -->
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@@ -436,7 +458,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
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<div><div class="h">Traceability</div><div class="x">A record's key is stamper + press + cycle timestamp + side. Logs are append-only; a complaint resolves to one stamper, press, shift and material lot.</div></div>
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<div><div class="h">One system of record</div><div class="x">ERPNext holds orders, gates, job cards, stock, inspections and metal-part genealogy; machine data sits beside it, keyed to the same names.</div></div>
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<div><div class="h">Layered quality control</div><div class="x">Inline optical inspection of every record, press telemetry every cycle, sampled audio comparison against the master; a lab gate for every PVC lot.</div></div>
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<div><div class="h">Metal and climate</div><div class="x">XRF thickness per stamper serial from launch; the whole plant at 20 to 26 °C and 35 to 60 % RH, filtered for the burning season.</div></div>
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<div><div class="h">Metrology and climate</div><div class="x">Every stamper measured from the first release: XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler. The plant at 20 to 26 °C, 35 to 60 % RH, filtered.</div></div>
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<div class="kp4">
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<div><div class="v">100 %</div><div class="l">of records through inline optical inspection</div></div>
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<div><div class="v">3 gates</div><div class="l">artist approvals recorded before work continues</div></div>
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@@ -448,9 +470,9 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
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<figcaption>Record passport demo: what a fan sees from the code on the sleeve (IDs simulated, make-a-record.html).</figcaption>
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</figure>
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</div>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> process-flow.md; traceability.md; quality-automation.md; digital-factory.md; business plan A, sections 4 and 5.1 to 5.3.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">Walk the chain left to right. The three diamonds are the artist's approvals: the master plan, the master and the test pressing; nothing proceeds without a recorded approval. What a lender should take away is control: every lacquer, father, mother, stamper, press cycle and material lot gets an identity that knows its parents, so a complaint resolves backwards in minutes. Every record passes inline optical inspection; audio is compared on samples, first-off per stamper and more often as a stamper ages. At Making Vinyl Europe this traceability was what the industry responded to most; that is supplier feedback, not buyer validation. Sources: process-flow.md; traceability.md; quality-automation.md; business plan A, section 5.1.</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> process-flow.md; traceability.md; quality-automation.md; digital-factory.md; business plan B, sections 1, 4 and 5.1 to 5.3.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">The three diamonds are the artist's approvals: the master plan, the master and the test pressing; nothing proceeds without a recorded approval. What a lender should take away is control: every lacquer, father, mother, stamper, press cycle and material lot gets an identity that knows its parents, so a complaint resolves backwards in minutes. Every record passes inline optical inspection; audio is compared on samples, first-off per stamper and more often as a stamper ages. At Making Vinyl Europe this traceability was what the industry responded to most; that is supplier feedback, not buyer validation. Plan B measures every stamper fully from the first release. Sources: process-flow.md; traceability.md; quality-automation.md; business plan B, sections 5.1 and 5.2.</aside>
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</section>
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</figure>
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</div>
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</div>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> artist-platform.md; business plan A, sections 4.8 and 5.1; digital-factory.md "ERPNext: the plant's ERP". Public side ~USD 40k to 90k <i>est.</i>, inside the software block.</p>
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<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
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<aside class="notes">The platform is the plant's front door. Anyone, from a bedroom artist to a label, configures a record and gets an itemised offer from the same price list that drives the invoice in ERPNext. The fan-funding mode lets an artist pre-sell a run: fans pay into a ring-fenced account and are refunded automatically if the goal is missed; the rule comes from Qrates, whose service was suspended with funded projects caught in the wind-down. A Thai legal opinion comes before the first campaign, and whether CNX is seller of record is still an open decision. The name is not decided. The public side is an estimated USD 40k to 90k. Sources: artist-platform.md; business plan A, section 4.8.</aside>
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<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> artist-platform.md; business plan B, sections 4.8 and 5.1; digital-factory.md "ERPNext: the plant's ERP". Public side ~USD 40k to 90k <i>est.</i>, inside the software block.</p>
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||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">The platform is the plant's front door. Anyone, from a bedroom artist to a label, configures a record and gets an itemised offer from the same price list that drives the invoice in ERPNext. The fan-funding mode lets an artist pre-sell a run: fans pay into a ring-fenced account and are refunded automatically if the goal is missed; the rule comes from Qrates, whose service was suspended with funded projects caught in the wind-down. A Thai legal opinion comes before the first campaign, and whether CNX is seller of record is still an open decision. The name is not decided. The public side is an estimated USD 40k to 90k. Sources: artist-platform.md; business plan B, section 4.8.</aside>
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</section>
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|
||||
<h2>A ~1,500 m² plant on leased land, utilities built for four modules</h2>
|
||||
<div class="bd">
|
||||
<figure>
|
||||
<div class="fig"><img src="img/plan-a-iso-gf.webp" width="1800" height="1010" alt="Isometric ground floor with the roofs cut away, labelled zones from galvanics to warehouse"></div>
|
||||
<figcaption>Ground floor with the roofs cut away, Plan A preset: galvanics, stamper prep, PVC lab, press hall, inspection, packaging and warehouse; the office with the cutting room. Schematic of the calculator's Payap scenario layout on a placeholder plot.</figcaption>
|
||||
<div class="fig"><img src="img/plan-b-iso-gf.webp" width="1800" height="1010" alt="Isometric ground floor with the roofs cut away, labelled zones from galvanics to warehouse, the crane, the visitor corridor and the battery"></div>
|
||||
<figcaption>Ground floor with the roofs cut away, Plan B preset: galvanics, stamper prep, PVC lab, press hall, inspection, packaging and warehouse; the office with the cutting room; the 5 t crane, the visitor corridor and the 271 kWh battery. Schematic of the calculator's Payap scenario layout on a placeholder plot.</figcaption>
|
||||
</figure>
|
||||
<dl class="dl">
|
||||
<dt>Site</dt><dd>Long lease, working candidate in Lamphun (Mueang Chi), Chiang Mai options under review; Northern Region Industrial Estate as fallback. Nothing signed.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Land</dt><dd>~4 rai minimum, 6 to 8 rai with expansion. Leasing keeps ~12M to 32M THB of land purchase out of the round; rent ~0.3M to 1.0M THB a year <span class="e">est.</span></dd>
|
||||
<dt>Building</dt><dd>Steel portal frame, 60 × 25 m (1,500 m²), crane-ready; 30 kN/m² slab raised 1.2 m for dock-height loading; insulated, airtight envelope.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Utility yard</dt><dd>~379 m²: boiler hall and chiller compound for four modules each. Launch: two 500 kg/h biomass boilers, two 250 kW chillers.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Roof</dt><dd>~520 kWp PV on the factory roof <span class="e">est.</span>; the office roof and the canopies built PV-ready.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Building</dt><dd>Steel portal frame, 60 × 25 m (1,500 m²), with its own 5 t crane; 30 kN/m² slab raised 1.2 m for dock-height loading; insulated, airtight.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Visitors</dt><dd>A glazed corridor in process order, built from the start: tours and the Payap programmes without stopping production.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Utility yard</dt><dd>~379 m²: boiler hall and chiller compound for four modules each. Launch: two 500 kg/h biomass boilers, two 250 kW chillers, Thai-supplied.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Roof</dt><dd>~520 kWp PV on the factory roof and a 271 kWh battery, owned <span class="e">est.</span>; office roof and canopies PV-ready.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Growth</dt><dd>Duplex bays and utility positions reserved; a 45 × 38 m (1,710 m²) second building fits the Mueang Chi plot.</dd>
|
||||
</dl>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan A, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md; scale.md; render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan A preset. The 60 × 25 m hall is the Mueang Chi design; the layout is fixed once a plot passes zoning and lease-ability.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">The strategy is a long lease of raw land with a purpose-built plant on it. That keeps an estimated 12M to 32M THB of land purchase out of the round, but it also means there is no land to pledge: the lease must give the company ownership of the buildings and the right to mortgage or assign them. Mueang Chi in Lamphun is the working candidate the design and the construction RFQ are tested against; its zoning is still unverified. The point Payap University gave in Chiang Mai failed zoning; its other land is unchecked. The render shows the calculator's Payap scenario layout, not a decided site. Sources: business plan A, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md.</aside>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md; scale.md; crane-workshop-tours.md; render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan B preset (figure 9). The 60 × 25 m hall is the Mueang Chi design; the layout is fixed once a plot passes zoning and lease-ability.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">The strategy is a long lease of raw land with a purpose-built plant on it. That keeps an estimated 12M to 32M THB of land purchase out of the round, but it also means there is no land to pledge: the lease must give the company ownership of the buildings and the right to mortgage or assign them. Mueang Chi in Lamphun is the working candidate; its zoning is still unverified. The point Payap University gave in Chiang Mai failed zoning; its other land is unchecked. Plan B builds the crane and the visitor corridor from the start. The render shows the calculator's Payap scenario layout, not a decided site. Sources: business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 7 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s7" data-title="Sustainability and utilities">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Sustainability, utilities and the region</div>
|
||||
<h2>Biomass steam, factory-roof solar and zero liquid discharge, in Northern Thailand</h2>
|
||||
<h2>Biomass steam, owned solar and zero liquid discharge, in the North</h2>
|
||||
<div class="bd">
|
||||
<div class="card">
|
||||
<h3>Steam from biomass</h3>
|
||||
@@ -511,11 +534,11 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<p class="t">Heat recovered first: flue-gas economiser, condensate return, a heat pump lifting the presses' ~60 °C cooling return into feedwater.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="card">
|
||||
<h3>Solar on the factory roof</h3>
|
||||
<h3>Owned solar on the roof</h3>
|
||||
<div class="stat"><div class="v">~520 kWp</div></div>
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chSolar" width="370" height="76" viewBox="0 0 370 76" role="img" aria-label="Share of the plant's electricity from the roof array"></svg>
|
||||
<p class="t">~730 to 780 MWh a year, ~87 % used on site: ~633 MWh, ~61 % of the plant's ~1,036 MWh <span class="e">est.</span> Zero export on PEA's grid.</p>
|
||||
<p class="t"><b class="ac">Plan A:</b> through a solar PPA, ~1.9M THB a year power price <span class="e">est.</span> <b class="bc">Plan B:</b> owned, with the 271 kWh battery.</p>
|
||||
<p class="t"><b class="ac">Owned, with the 271 kWh battery:</b> ~2.3M to 2.5M THB a year off the power bill, payback ~4.1 to 5.8 years <span class="e">est.</span></p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="card">
|
||||
<h3>Water and material</h3>
|
||||
@@ -526,111 +549,149 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<div class="card">
|
||||
<h3>Northern Thailand</h3>
|
||||
<div class="stat"><div class="v">~15 to 25</div><div class="l">jobs across shifts at volume <span class="e">est.</span></div></div>
|
||||
<p class="t">Skilled roles in galvanics, cutting, QC and IT; Payap University programmes as a training pipeline (under discussion).</p>
|
||||
<p class="t">Skilled roles in galvanics, cutting, QC and IT; Payap University programmes from day one through the visitor corridor (under discussion).</p>
|
||||
<p class="t">Chiang Mai, Lamphun and Lampang: the Northern Economic Corridor, promoted by BOI as a creative-economy base. Packaging from Chiang Mai.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="note7">Biomass brings fuel contracts, a monsoon stock, ash handling, a 14 m stack with a dust collector and a certified boiler attendant; the stack is a visible point source in Chiang Mai's burning season, so dust control is drawn from the start.</p>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan A, sections 1, 5.4, 8.4 and 12.1; biomass.md; sustainability.md "PV size with biomass steam"; boi.md "Regional angle"; scale.md. Fuel at ~850k records, planning price 1.35 to 2 THB/kg delivered.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Steam is the plant's largest energy load, and both plans burn biomass from launch: about 0.67M THB of wood chips a year against about 4.9M THB for electric steam, which also cuts grid demand from about 980 kW to about 264 kW. Solar goes on the factory roof only, sized to the load: about 520 kWp, most of it used on site because a factory on PEA's grid runs zero export. The BOI no longer promotes solar since 1 July 2025, so owning the array earns the bill saving, not a tax benefit. Galvanics runs zero liquid discharge, the strongest answer to the effluent permit. All figures are estimates. Sources: biomass.md; sustainability.md; business plan A, sections 5.4 and 8.4.</aside>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 1, 5.4, 8.4 and 12.1; biomass.md; sustainability.md "PV size with biomass steam" and "PV, not solar thermal"; boi.md "Regional angle"; scale.md. Fuel at ~850k records, planning price 1.35 to 2 THB/kg delivered.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Steam is the plant's largest energy load, and both plans burn biomass from launch: about 0.67M THB of wood chips a year against about 4.9M THB for electric steam, and grid demand of about 264 kW instead of 980. Solar goes on the factory roof only: about 520 kWp sized to the load, mostly used on site under PEA's zero export. The BOI no longer promotes solar since 1 July 2025, so Plan B owns the array for the bill saving, about 2.3M to 2.5M THB a year, not for a tax benefit. Galvanics runs zero liquid discharge, the strongest answer to the effluent permit. Estimates. Sources: biomass.md; sustainability.md; business plan B, sections 5.4 and 8.4.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 8 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s8" data-title="Investment">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Investment</div>
|
||||
<h2>Plan A ~182M THB, Plan B ~217M THB: the same plant, six levers apart</h2>
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Investment, Plan B</div>
|
||||
<h2>Plan B: ~217M THB at the midpoint, the launch plant with everything in</h2>
|
||||
<div class="bd">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:12px"><span><i style="background:var(--ac)"></i>Plan A</span><span><i style="background:var(--b)"></i>Plan B</span><span>Bars: block midpoint, M THB. Lines: low to high end <span class="e">est.</span></span></div>
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chInvest" width="1000" height="600" viewBox="0 0 1000 600" role="img" aria-label="Investment by block, Plan A and Plan B"></svg>
|
||||
<div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:12px"><span><i style="background:var(--ac)"></i>Plan B, block midpoint</span><span><i style="background:transparent;height:2px;border-top:2px solid rgba(236,230,218,.6);border-radius:0;vertical-align:4px"></i>low to high end of the block</span><span>M THB <span class="e">est.</span></span></div>
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chInvest" width="1000" height="600" viewBox="0 0 1000 600" role="img" aria-label="Plan B investment by block group, low, midpoint and high"></svg>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<div class="tot2">
|
||||
<div class="card"><div class="h ac">Plan A</div><div class="v ac">~182M THB</div><div class="l">167.1M plus the 10M to 20M ramp-up reserve; ~132M to 233M low to high. Labelled ~180M: ~2M above it at the midpoint.</div></div>
|
||||
<div class="card"><div class="h bc">Plan B</div><div class="v bc">~217M THB</div><div class="l">201.6M plus the same reserve; ~156M to 277M low to high. Labelled ~215M.</div></div>
|
||||
<div class="tot2" style="grid-template-columns:1fr">
|
||||
<div class="card warn"><div class="h ac">Plan B, the proposal</div><div class="v ac">~217M THB <span class="usd">~6.56M USD</span></div><div class="l">201.6M for the launch plant plus the 10M to 20M ramp-up reserve; ~156M to 277M from the low to the high end of every block. Labelled ~215M.</div></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<h3 style="margin-top:24px">Plan A's six levers, saving at the midpoint</h3>
|
||||
<div class="cmpA"><span>Plan A, the lowest-capital variant: the same plant with six cost levers</span><b>~182M THB</b></div>
|
||||
<h3 style="margin-top:24px">What Plan B buys that Plan A leases or defers</h3>
|
||||
<table class="tb lev">
|
||||
<tr><th>Lever</th><th class="n">M THB</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>1 · Solar and battery through a solar PPA</td><td class="n">~14.7</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>2 · Metrology launch tier; confocal, profiler from revenue</td><td class="n">~8.8</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>3 · Visitor corridor built later</td><td class="n">~3.6</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>4 · Cassette and CD-R duplication later</td><td class="n">~4.0</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>5 · Crane rented for the installations</td><td class="n">~3.2</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>6 · Compressor through the Chinese route</td><td class="n">~0.25</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr class="tot"><td>Plan B buys all six at launch</td><td class="n">~34.5</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><th>In at launch in Plan B</th><th>Plan A instead</th><th class="n">M THB</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Solar ~520 kWp and 271 kWh battery, owned</td><td>Solar PPA</td><td class="n">~14.7</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Full metrology: confocal and profiler too</td><td>From revenue</td><td class="n">~8.8</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Visitor corridor and accessible entrance</td><td>Built later</td><td class="n">~3.6</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Cassette and CD-R duplication</td><td>Added later</td><td class="n">~4.0</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>5 t overhead crane, bought</td><td>Rented</td><td class="n">~3.2</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Compressor from a Thai supplier</td><td>Chinese route</td><td class="n">~0.25</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr class="tot"><td>Together, at the midpoint</td><td></td><td class="n">~34.5</td></tr>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
<p class="s" style="margin-top:16px"><b class="ac">No contingency in either price</b> (at 15 %: ~25M THB on A, ~30M on B). Not in the price: the central hydraulic plant, archive shelving, CD replication, financing costs, currency moves, duty and import VAT (BOI assumed).</p>
|
||||
<p class="s" style="margin-top:16px"><b class="ac">No contingency in the price</b> (at 15 %: ~30M THB). Not in it: the central hydraulic plant, archive shelving, CD replication, financing costs, currency moves, duty and import VAT (BOI assumed).</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plans A and B, sections 8.1 and 8.2; total-investment.md "Launch plant" and "Two plans". Block groups and their midpoints are arithmetic on the block ranges. A Chinese biomass boiler quote ~2M THB below the Thai package would bring Plan A to 180M.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Both plans buy every machine. Plan B takes none of the six levers; Plan A leases the solar array through a PPA, buys the confocal and profiler from revenue, builds the visitor corridor later, adds cassette and CD-R later, rents a crane for the installations and takes a Chinese-brand compressor: about 34.5M THB apart at the midpoint. A credit committee will ask three things: the prices carry no contingency; the Classic and the Pheenix line have no vendor price, the Pheenix line being priced at OMS's reference plus 20 %; and the building depends on a soil test. Sources: total-investment.md "Two plans"; business plan A, sections 8.1, 8.2 and 8.4.</aside>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 8.1 and 8.2; total-investment.md "Launch plant" and "Two plans". Block groups and their midpoints are arithmetic on the block ranges. Plan A: ~182M THB at the midpoint, ~132M to 233M low to high.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Plan B is the launch plant with every block in: 201.6M THB at the midpoint plus the ramp-up reserve, about 217M, labelled 215M. Low to high it runs about 156M to 277M, with no contingency: at 15 % that would be about 30M more. The table is what Plan B buys that Plan A leases or defers, about 34.5M at the midpoint. Why not Plan A? It reaches about 182M by leasing the array, renting the crane and deferring the rest. Expect two questions: the Classic and Pheenix line are unpriced by their vendors, and the building waits on a soil test. Sources: total-investment.md "Two plans"; business plan B, sections 8.1 to 8.4.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 9 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s8b grooves" data-title="Why Plan B" style="--gx:0%;--gy:100%;--gr:30%">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Why Plan B</div>
|
||||
<h2>Ownership and control, not a higher modelled return</h2>
|
||||
<p class="lede">Both plans build the same three presses and make the same records, so demand does not decide between them. The choice is ~35M THB more at launch for what Plan A leases or buys later, and fewer moving parts to finance once the plant runs.</p>
|
||||
<div class="bd">
|
||||
<div class="why">
|
||||
<div><div class="n">~14.7M THB</div><div class="h">No power contract on the roof</div><div class="x">The ~520 kWp array and the 271 kWh battery are owned: no 15 to 25 year PPA and no ~1.9M THB a year PPA bill; the array pays back in ~4.1 to 5.8 years <span class="e">est.</span></div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="n">~8.8M THB</div><div class="h">Traceability from the first release</div><div class="x">The laser confocal and the wide-area profiler at launch, not from revenue: every stamper fully measured, the core of the pitch to labels.</div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="n">~3.6M THB</div><div class="h">Tours and Payap from day one</div><div class="x">A glazed corridor in process order for artists, labels, investors and schools, and the student programmes; cheaper to build in than to add.</div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="n">~4.0M THB</div><div class="h">Cassette and CD-R sales</div><div class="x">Both formats sold from launch next to vinyl. Their revenue is not in the operating model.</div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="n">~3.2M THB</div><div class="h">Its own crane</div><div class="x">A 5 t crane over the production compartment: machines moved in, out and around without hiring a mobile crane.</div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="n">~0.25M THB</div><div class="h">Local service</div><div class="x">The compressor from a Thai supplier, like the rest of the utilities, instead of the Chinese route.</div></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3>What the model says, Plan B against Plan A</h3>
|
||||
<table class="tb cmp">
|
||||
<tr><th>Midpoints, estimates</th><th class="n ac">Plan B</th><th class="n">Plan A</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Plan price, reserve in</td><td class="n">~217M THB</td><td class="n">~182M THB</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>EBITDA, central, revenue model</td><td class="n">1.73M USD</td><td class="n">1.73M USD</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>EBITDA, calculator: no PPA bill in B</td><td class="n">2.23M USD</td><td class="n">2.17M USD</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Depreciation, central</td><td class="n">0.49M USD</td><td class="n">0.40M USD</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Operating profit, central / adverse</td><td class="n">1.24M / -0.55M</td><td class="n">1.33M / -0.41M</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Payback on the plan price, central</td><td class="n">~3.8 yr</td><td class="n">~3.2 yr</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Cash payback and IRR, calculator</td><td class="n">yr ~4.2, ~22 %</td><td class="n">yr ~3.8, ~26 %</td></tr>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
<div class="card warn" style="margin-top:20px;padding:18px 22px"><p class="t" style="font-size:17.5px"><b>Read plainly:</b> Plan A has the better modelled return, Plan B the more complete plant. Most of B's items could be added to A later from revenue; the corridor is cheaper from the start, and every year the array is leased costs the PPA bill. Owning the array earns no BOI tax benefit: solar was dropped on 1 July 2025, only the battery may qualify.</p></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> total-investment.md "Two plans" ("What decides between them"); revenue-model.md "Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B"; business plan B, sections 1, 8.2, 8.4 and 9.4; fleet-calculator.html, presets planA and planB; sustainability.md "Leasing instead (Plan A)" (PPA terms 15 to 25 years) and "PV, not solar thermal"; boi.md.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Present this slide plainly; a lender will weigh it. Both plans make the same records, so demand does not decide between them. On the modelled numbers Plan B's extra 35M THB earns little: the same EBITDA in the revenue model, about 0.06M USD a year more in the calculator for the PPA bill the owned array avoids, more depreciation and a longer payback. Its case is ownership and control: no long power contract on the roof, full stamper metrology for the traceability pitch, tours and the Payap programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, local service. Why not A? Its better modelled return leaves those items to finance or contract later. Sources: total-investment.md; business plan B, section 8.2.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 10 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s9" data-title="Operating picture">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Operating picture, mature year</div>
|
||||
<h2>The central case works; the adverse case loses money</h2>
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Operating picture, Plan B, mature year</div>
|
||||
<h2>Plan B's central case works; the adverse case loses money</h2>
|
||||
<div class="bd">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:10px"><span><i style="background:rgba(236,230,218,.32)"></i>Revenue</span><span><i style="background:var(--ac)"></i>EBITDA, both plans</span><span><i style="background:#b9833a"></i>Operating profit A</span><span><i style="background:var(--b)"></i>Operating profit B</span></div>
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chOp" width="900" height="560" viewBox="0 0 900 560" role="img" aria-label="Revenue, EBITDA and operating profit by scenario"></svg>
|
||||
<div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:10px"><span><i style="background:rgba(236,230,218,.32)"></i>Revenue</span><span><i style="background:var(--ac)"></i>EBITDA</span><span><i style="background:var(--b)"></i>Operating profit, after Plan B's depreciation</span><span>M USD a year</span></div>
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chOp" width="900" height="560" viewBox="0 0 900 560" role="img" aria-label="Plan B revenue, EBITDA and operating profit by scenario"></svg>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<table class="tb op">
|
||||
<tr><th>USD a year</th><th class="n">Adverse</th><th class="n">Central</th><th class="n">Favourable</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><th>USD a year, Plan B</th><th class="n">Adverse</th><th class="n">Central</th><th class="n">Favourable</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Records</td><td class="n">0.58M</td><td class="n">0.74M</td><td class="n">0.90M</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Price per record</td><td class="n">3.76</td><td class="n">4.49</td><td class="n">5.27</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Direct cost per record</td><td class="n">2.70</td><td class="n">2.00</td><td class="n">1.35</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Revenue</td><td class="n">2.28M</td><td class="n">3.65M</td><td class="n">5.41M</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Revenue, THB</td><td class="n">~75M</td><td class="n">~120M</td><td class="n">~179M</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">EBITDA</td><td class="n">0.23M</td><td class="n">1.73M</td><td class="n">3.79M</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Operating profit A</td><td class="n neg">-0.41M</td><td class="n">1.33M</td><td class="n">3.54M</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Operating profit B</td><td class="n neg">-0.55M</td><td class="n">1.24M</td><td class="n">3.50M</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Payback A, plan price</td><td class="n">~31 yr</td><td class="n">~3.2 yr</td><td class="n">~1.1 yr</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Payback B, plan price</td><td class="n">~37 yr</td><td class="n">~3.8 yr</td><td class="n">~1.2 yr</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Depreciation</td><td class="n">0.78M</td><td class="n">0.49M</td><td class="n">0.29M</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr class="tot"><td class="k">Operating profit</td><td class="n neg">-0.55M</td><td class="n">1.24M</td><td class="n">3.50M</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td class="k">Payback, plan price</td><td class="n">~37 yr</td><td class="n">~3.8 yr</td><td class="n">~1.2 yr</td></tr>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
<div class="card warn" style="margin-top:20px;padding:18px 22px">
|
||||
<p class="t" style="font-size:17.5px"><b>Read the adverse column as the honest one.</b> A central EBITDA margin of ~47 % is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn: the direct cost leaves out indirect labour, freight, scrap above the reject allowance, sales commissions and the extra cost of specials.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="kp4 op3">
|
||||
<div><div class="v">~0.24M</div><div class="l">records a year: break-even on operating profit</div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="v">~1.1M</div><div class="l">records the adverse case needs to cover depreciation; the presses make 0.58M</div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="v">~2.8 USD</div><div class="l">(~92 THB) a record covers depreciation at central cost and volume</div></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> revenue-model.md "Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)"; business plans A and B, section 9.4. Estimates, mature year at 60 % specials; payback is EBITDA on the plan price including the reserve. Break-even on operating profit ~0.2M records (A), ~0.24M (B); the adverse case needs ~1.0M (A) or ~1.1M (B) records to cover depreciation.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">These are mature-year pictures, not a forecast. Each column is internally consistent: adverse pairs low volume with the low price, the high cost, the high capital and the high overheads. Revenue and EBITDA are the same in both plans because the plant is the same; only depreciation and payback differ. The central case gives EBITDA of about USD 1.73M, roughly 57M THB. Lenders should read the adverse column: it loses money, and the central margin of about 47 % is too good to trust until indirect labour, freight, commissions and the cost of specials are in the model. Price realisation and utilisation decide solvency. Sources: revenue-model.md; business plan A, section 9.4.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 10 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s10" data-title="Cash and returns">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Cash and returns</div>
|
||||
<h2>Ten years of cash: back to zero in year ~3.8 (Plan A) and ~4.2 (Plan B)</h2>
|
||||
<div class="bd">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:10px"><span><i style="background:var(--ac)"></i>Plan A, cumulative cash</span><span><i style="background:var(--b)"></i>Plan B, cumulative cash</span><span>M USD, year 0 to 10</span></div>
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chCash" width="1000" height="640" viewBox="0 0 1000 640" role="img" aria-label="Cumulative cash over ten years, Plan A and Plan B"></svg>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<table class="tb kp">
|
||||
<tr><th>Calculator presets</th><th class="n ac">Plan A</th><th class="n bc">Plan B</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Cash payback</td><td class="n">year ~3.8</td><td class="n">year ~4.2</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>IRR, ten years</td><td class="n">~26 %</td><td class="n">~22 %</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>NPV at 10 %</td><td class="n">~5.4M USD</td><td class="n">~4.7M USD</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Year 0: investment and reserve</td><td class="n">5.52M USD</td><td class="n">6.56M USD</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Mature-year EBITDA</td><td class="n">2.17M USD</td><td class="n">2.23M USD</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Simple payback: plan price before the reserve / mature EBITDA</td><td class="n">2.3 yr</td><td class="n">2.7 yr</td></tr>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
<p class="t" style="margin-top:20px;font-size:17px"><b>Basis:</b> 850k records at 60 % specials at the team's planning rate (3 records a minute per Duplex system), the calculator's own cost build-up with biomass fuel, the cutting engineer and, in Plan A, the PPA power price. Ramp 35, 70 and 90 % in years 1 to 3. Pre-tax, pre-financing, no BOI tax holiday, no terminal value: a sketch, not a forecast.</p>
|
||||
<div class="card warn" style="margin-top:18px;padding:16px 22px"><p class="t" style="font-size:17px">In the revenue model's adverse case, EBITDA pays the plan price back in ~31 years (A) and ~37 years (B). A year-by-year cash model for the ramp is a phase 0 output.</p></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plans A and B, section 9.4 and figure 12; fleet-calculator.html, presets planA and planB, cash view (values read from the page, October 2026); revenue-model.md. Estimates.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">This curve is the calculator's, not the operating table's. It runs 850,000 records at the team's faster Duplex planning rate, its own cost build-up including biomass fuel and, for Plan A, the PPA power bill, and a ramp of 35, 70 and 90 % before the mature year. Year 0 is the midpoint investment plus a 15M THB reserve. On that basis Plan A is back to zero in year 3.8 with an IRR of about 26 %; Plan B in year 4.2 at about 22 %. It is pre-tax and pre-financing, with no terminal value. Put the adverse case beside it: about 31 and 37 years. Sources: fleet-calculator.html; business plans A and B, section 9.4.</aside>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> revenue-model.md "Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)"; business plan B, section 9.4. Estimates, mature year at 60 % specials; depreciation on Plan B's blocks; payback is EBITDA on the plan price including the reserve. Plan A for comparison: operating profit -0.41 / 1.33 / 3.54M USD.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">These are mature-year pictures for Plan B, not a forecast. Each column is internally consistent: adverse pairs low volume with the low price, the high cost, the high capital and the high overheads. The central case gives EBITDA of about USD 1.73M, roughly 57M THB, and operating profit of about 1.24M after Plan B's depreciation; it breaks even at about 0.24 million records. Lenders should read the adverse column: it loses about 0.55M USD, and the central margin of about 47 % is too good to trust until indirect labour, freight, commissions and the cost of specials are in. Why not A? Same EBITDA, less depreciation: 1.33M central. Sources: revenue-model.md; business plan B, section 9.4.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 11 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s10" data-title="Cash and returns">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Cash and returns, Plan B</div>
|
||||
<h2>Ten years of cash: Plan B back to zero in year ~4.2, IRR ~22 %</h2>
|
||||
<div class="bd">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:10px"><span><i style="background:var(--ac)"></i>Plan B, cumulative cash</span><span><i style="background:transparent;height:2px;border-top:2px dashed rgba(236,230,218,.45);border-radius:0;vertical-align:4px"></i>Plan A, for comparison</span><span>M USD, year 0 to 10</span></div>
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chCash" width="1000" height="640" viewBox="0 0 1000 640" role="img" aria-label="Cumulative cash over ten years, Plan B, with Plan A faint for comparison"></svg>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<table class="tb kp">
|
||||
<tr><th>Calculator presets</th><th class="n ac">Plan B</th><th class="n">Plan A</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Cash payback</td><td class="n">year ~4.2</td><td class="n">year ~3.8</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>IRR, ten years</td><td class="n">~22 %</td><td class="n">~26 %</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>NPV at 10 %</td><td class="n">~4.7M USD</td><td class="n">~5.4M USD</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Year 0: investment and reserve</td><td class="n">6.56M USD</td><td class="n">5.52M USD</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Mature-year EBITDA</td><td class="n">2.23M USD</td><td class="n">2.17M USD</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>Simple payback: plan price before the reserve / mature EBITDA</td><td class="n">2.7 yr</td><td class="n">2.3 yr</td></tr>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
<p class="t" style="margin-top:20px;font-size:17px"><b>Basis:</b> 850k records at 60 % specials at the team's planning rate (3 records a minute per Duplex system), the calculator's own cost build-up with biomass fuel and the cutting engineer; Plan B pays no PPA power price. Ramp 35, 70 and 90 % in years 1 to 3. Pre-tax, pre-financing, no BOI tax holiday, no terminal value: a sketch, not a forecast.</p>
|
||||
<div class="card warn" style="margin-top:18px;padding:16px 22px"><p class="t" style="font-size:17px">In the revenue model's adverse case, EBITDA pays Plan B's price back in ~37 years. A year-by-year cash model for the ramp is a phase 0 output.</p></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, section 9.4 and figure 12; fleet-calculator.html, presets planB and planA, cash view (values read from the page, October 2026); revenue-model.md. Estimates.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">This curve is the calculator's, not the operating table's: 850,000 records at the team's faster Duplex planning rate, its own cost build-up including biomass fuel, no PPA bill because Plan B owns the array, and a ramp of 35, 70 and 90 % before the mature year. Year 0 is the midpoint investment plus a 15M THB reserve, 6.56M USD. On that basis Plan B is back to zero in year 4.2, with an IRR of about 22 % and an NPV of about 4.7M USD at 10 %. Pre-tax, pre-financing, no terminal value. Why not A? Its curve, faint here, turns earlier on less capital. Put the adverse case beside it: about 37 years. Sources: fleet-calculator.html; business plan B, section 9.4.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 12 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s11" data-title="BOI and financing">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>BOI promotion and financing</div>
|
||||
<h2>Duty-free machinery under BOI, debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1</h2>
|
||||
@@ -639,36 +700,36 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<div class="r"><div class="k">Category</div><div class="x">Basic plastic consumer-goods manufacturing (Category 6), incentive Group B: no tax holiday on the core activity. Sub-code to confirm with a BOI-registered consultant.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag no">To confirm</span></div></div>
|
||||
<div class="r"><div class="k">Privileges</div><div class="x">Machinery import duty exemption, with import VAT; 100 % foreign ownership; visas and work permits through the One Stop Service; raw-material duty relief for export production.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag ok">Group B core</span></div></div>
|
||||
<div class="r"><div class="k">Upgrades</div><div class="x">Smart and Sustainable Industry (15/2565, refreshed July 2025): typically 3 years of CIT exemption, capped around 50 % of the upgrade spend; R&D merit at 1 % of revenue adds 1 to 3 years.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag md">To structure</span></div></div>
|
||||
<div class="r"><div class="k">Solar</div><div class="x">No longer promoted since 1 July 2025 (Announcement 3/2568). Only battery storage may still qualify, capped at 12M THB per MW.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag hi">Solar dropped</span></div></div>
|
||||
<div class="r"><div class="k">Solar</div><div class="x">No longer promoted since 1 July 2025 (Announcement 3/2568): Plan B's owned array earns the bill saving, no tax benefit. The 271 kWh battery may still qualify, capped at 12M THB per MW.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag hi">Solar dropped</span></div></div>
|
||||
<div class="r"><div class="k">Conditions</div><div class="x">Debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1 for the life of the privileges; minimum 1M THB excluding land and working capital; modern machinery; progress and annual reports; machinery imported within ~30 months, full operation by ~36 months.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag md">Binding</span></div></div>
|
||||
<div class="r"><div class="k">Process</div><div class="x">e-Investment filing and analyst meeting; ~40 working days to a decision under 200M THB, 60 to 90 above; 4 to 6 months in practice. No machinery order before the certificate.</div><div class="st"><span class="tag no">Phase 0</span></div></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="fin">
|
||||
<h3>Funding need, reserve in, no contingency</h3>
|
||||
<h3>Funding need, Plan B: reserve in, no contingency</h3>
|
||||
<div class="need">
|
||||
<div class="card"><div class="v ac">~182M THB</div><div class="l">Plan A, ~5.52M USD. Equity at 3:1: at least a quarter, ~46M THB</div></div>
|
||||
<div class="card"><div class="v bc">~217M THB</div><div class="l">Plan B, ~6.56M USD. Equity at 3:1: at least a quarter, ~54M THB</div></div>
|
||||
<div class="card warn"><div class="v ac">~217M THB</div><div class="l">~6.56M USD at the midpoint, labelled ~215M; ~156M to 277M low to high</div></div>
|
||||
<div class="card"><div class="v">~54M THB</div><div class="l">equity at least: a quarter of the funding at the 3:1 ceiling (arithmetic)</div></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<dl class="dl" style="margin-top:22px;grid-template-columns:130px 1fr;gap:12px 18px">
|
||||
<dt>Collateral</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">The machinery and equipment. The building only if the lease grants its ownership and the right to mortgage it, a lease condition. No land collateral: the site is a long lease of raw land.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Collateral</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">The machinery and equipment, in Plan B including the owned PV array and battery. The building only if the lease grants its ownership and the right to mortgage it. No land collateral: the site is a long lease of raw land.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Equity</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">The lead investor; Ploy Printing as intended strategic co-investor (terms not yet discussed); the founders.</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Use of funds</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">Plan A at the midpoint: equipment (presses, metal path, metrology, lab) ~76M THB, utilities ~35M, building and site ~33M, software, freight, working capital and phase 0 ~23M (block midpoints <span class="e">est.</span>), plus the reserve; released in tranches (slide 15).</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Use of funds</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">Equipment (presses, metal path, metrology, lab) ~85M THB; building, crane, workshop and corridor ~40M; utilities ~35M; solar and battery ~15M; software, cassette and CD-R, freight, working capital and phase 0 ~28M (block midpoints <span class="e">est.</span>), plus the reserve, in tranches (slide 16).</dd>
|
||||
<dt>Without BOI</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">~5 % duty on ~2.3M USD of imported machinery (~0.11M USD) and ~0.17M USD of import VAT up front <span class="e">est.</span></dd>
|
||||
</dl>
|
||||
<p class="tbd">Financing structure to be agreed. No loan terms, interest rate or debt-service figures are on file.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> boi.md; business plan A, sections 6.1, 7.1, 8.4 and 12.2; business plan B, section 1 ("The ask"); total-investment.md "Launch plant". Equity floors and use-of-funds groups are arithmetic on the plan's figures, before financing costs.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Vinyl pressing lands in BOI Group B: no tax holiday on the core activity, but duty-free machinery with the import VAT, full foreign ownership and work permits. Tax value comes from the upgrade measures for automation, metrology and energy efficiency. Solar is no longer promoted since 1 July 2025. The condition that shapes financing is debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1 for the life of the privileges, so at least a quarter of the funding is equity. There is no loan structure, rate or debt-service figure on file; the structure is to be agreed with the investor and lenders. Collateral is the machinery; the land is leased. Sources: boi.md; business plan A, sections 7.1 and 12.2.</aside>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> boi.md; business plan B, sections 1 ("The ask"), 6.1, 7.1, 8.1, 8.4 and 12.2; total-investment.md "Launch plant". Equity floor and use-of-funds groups are arithmetic on the plan's figures, before financing costs.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Vinyl pressing lands in BOI Group B: no tax holiday on the core activity, but duty-free machinery with the import VAT, full foreign ownership and work permits. Tax value comes from the upgrade measures. Solar is no longer promoted since 1 July 2025, so Plan B owns its array for the bill alone; the battery may qualify. The condition that shapes financing is debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1, so at least a quarter of Plan B's 217M, about 54M THB, is equity. No loan structure, rate or debt-service figure is on file; the structure is to be agreed. Collateral is the machinery, the array and the battery; the land is leased. Sources: boi.md; business plan B, sections 7.1 and 12.2.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 12 -->
|
||||
<!-- 13 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s12" data-title="Schedule">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Schedule</div>
|
||||
<h2>First paying release: Q4 2028 to mid-2029, and still open</h2>
|
||||
<div class="bd">
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chGantt" width="1712" height="468" viewBox="0 0 1712 468" role="img" aria-label="Calendar from phase 0 to first paying release"></svg>
|
||||
<svg class="chart" id="chGantt" width="1712" height="448" viewBox="0 0 1712 448" role="img" aria-label="Calendar from phase 0 to first paying release"></svg>
|
||||
<div class="cols">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3>Commissioning sequence</h3>
|
||||
@@ -677,6 +738,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<li>Newbilt Duplex system, with boilers B-1 and B-2 and chillers CH-1 and CH-2.</li>
|
||||
<li>Newbilt Classic, once the metal path and the press process are stable.</li>
|
||||
</ol>
|
||||
<p class="s" style="margin-top:10px">Alongside: cassette and CD-R lines. In the build: owned PV and battery, 5 t crane, visitor corridor.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3>Long-lead orders, after the certificate</h3>
|
||||
@@ -688,12 +750,12 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> project-timeline.md, calendar anchored August 2026 (nothing in phase 0 has started, so it shifts day for day; not yet redrawn for the launch plant); business plan A, sections 10 and 11.1; roadmap.md phases 0 to 4.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">This is the August 2026 calendar, the only one on file. It was drawn for a one-press launch and has not been redrawn for the launch plant: commissioning the cutting room and galvanics before the presses is not yet in it, and only the press build time is even assumed. So the date is open: Q4 2028 at the optimistic end, mid-2029 if the press build takes 15 to 18 months. Nothing in phase 0 has started, so it slides day for day. The critical path is BOI certificate, long-lead orders, vendor builds, freight and commissioning; construction has three to five months of float. BOI windows keep 15 to 18 months of margin. Sources: project-timeline.md; business plan A, sections 10 and 11.</aside>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> project-timeline.md, calendar anchored August 2026 (nothing in phase 0 has started, so it shifts day for day; not yet redrawn for the launch plant); business plan B, sections 10, 11 and 11.1; roadmap.md phases 0 to 4.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">This is the August 2026 calendar, the only one on file, drawn for a one-press launch: commissioning the cutting room and galvanics first is not yet in it, and only the press build time is assumed. The date is open: Q4 2028 at best, mid-2029 if the press build takes 15 to 18 months. Phase 0 has not started, so it slides day for day. The critical path runs through the BOI certificate and the vendor builds; construction has three to five months of float. Plan B's array, battery, crane and corridor go in during the build; PEA's interconnection review, 3 to 6 months, is filed with procurement. Sources: project-timeline.md; business plan B, sections 10 and 11.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 13 -->
|
||||
<!-- 14 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s13" data-title="Risks and mitigations">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Risks and mitigations</div>
|
||||
<h2>The risks we carry, and what retires each one</h2>
|
||||
@@ -702,22 +764,23 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<tr><th>Severity</th><th>Risk</th><th>Mitigation and status</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag hi">High</span></td><td>Pricing power is unproven: market validation (roadmap item 1) is open, with no buyer prices yet</td><td>Validation gate with regional labels; the platform's calculator as an interest list; no large spending before it clears</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag hi">High</span></td><td>Utilisation and price: the adverse case loses money; the extra cost of specials is not yet in the direct cost</td><td>Treat the adverse column as the honest one; specials gain an upper bound until compound quotes; second Duplex waits for demand</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag hi">High</span></td><td>No contingency in the price: at 15 %, ~25M THB on A and ~30M on B</td><td>Quotes before commitment; release in tranches; how overruns are funded agreed up front</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag hi">High</span></td><td>No contingency in Plan B's price: at 15 % ~30M THB; the high end of every block ~277M with the reserve</td><td>Quotes before commitment; release in tranches; how overruns are funded agreed up front</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag hi">High</span></td><td>Galvanics and cutting on the critical path, galvanics the hardest skill to hire. Sibert advised getting presses, boilers, operators and feedback loops right first</td><td>Advice carried as a risk: commission the metal path first and measure it; hire early, train at the vendors; Stamper Discs and SST as overflow contacts</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag hi">High</span></td><td>Prices not on file: the Newbilt Classic (placeholder band) and the Pheenix line (OMS reference + 20 %, no Pheenix quote)</td><td>Newbilt re-quote and Pheenix quote in phase 0; OMS's offer as the galvanics benchmark</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag hi">High</span></td><td>Vendor build times unknown: the press build carries ~40 % of the schedule</td><td>Build time and order-book position required in every re-quote</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag hi">High</span></td><td>Zoning unverified: the Payap point failed, Mueang Chi is unchecked</td><td>Verify on the land-use map and with counsel before the BOI filing; industrial estate as fallback</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag md">Medium</span></td><td>Plan B's ~35M THB more than Plan A earns little in the model: payback ~3.8 against ~3.2 years, a deeper adverse case</td><td>Phase 0 prices each item against its lever (PPA offer beside the purchase quote); the corridor is cheaper from the start</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag md">Medium</span></td><td>Lease terms and building ownership: a weak lease makes the building hard to finance</td><td>Registered 30 to 50 year lease with renewal, building ownership and assignment rights; Thai counsel in phase 0</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag md">Medium</span></td><td>Galvanics effluent and biomass emissions in the first factory licence</td><td>Zero-discharge design and treatment building from the start; dust collector and 14 m stack drawn; fuel contracts</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td><span class="tag md">Medium</span></td><td>Currency: EUR on Newbilt and Pheenix, USD on Sibert and Sillitoe, costs in THB</td><td>Currency and validity in every quote; THB pricing regionally; hedging decided with the investor</td></tr>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan A, sections 11.2 and 13 (severities as the plan states them); revenue-model.md "Honest caveats"; roadmap.md item 1; site-candidates.md.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Every plan has risks; the point is which are being retired, by what and when. The severities are the business plan's own. The top three are commercial: pricing power is unproven, the adverse case loses money, and there is no contingency. The next group is execution: galvanics and cutting now sit on the critical path, the Classic and the Pheenix line have no vendor price, and no build time is quoted. Sibert, which sells into this plant, advised getting presses, boilers and operators right first; we decided the full chain anyway and carry that advice as a risk. Most of these retire in phase 0, before any capital is committed. Source: business plan A, section 13.</aside>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 11.2 and 13 (severities as the plan states them); revenue-model.md "Honest caveats"; roadmap.md item 1; site-candidates.md.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">The severities are the business plan's own. The top three are commercial: pricing power is unproven, the adverse case loses money, and Plan B's price carries no contingency, about 30M THB at 15 %. The next group is execution: galvanics and cutting now sit on the critical path, the Classic and the Pheenix line have no vendor price, and no build time is quoted. Sibert advised getting presses, boilers and operators right first; we carry that advice as a risk. Plan B adds its own: higher launch capital than Plan A and a longer payback. Most of these retire in phase 0, before any capital is committed. Source: business plan B, section 13.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 14 -->
|
||||
<!-- 15 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s14" data-title="Team and vendors">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Team, partners and vendors</div>
|
||||
<h2>A small founding team, specialist vendors and a local packaging partner</h2>
|
||||
@@ -727,7 +790,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<div><div class="nm">Simona Meesaiyati</div><div class="ro">Project Lead</div><div class="x">Management and the audio side.</div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="nm">Alexander Grabowski</div><div class="ro">Technical Consultant</div><div class="x">The technical side: equipment and vendors, utilities, the building model, the traceability and QC specification, the factory software.</div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="nm">buildfor.life</div><div class="ro">Consulting</div><div class="x">Supports the project in a consulting capacity.</div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="x"><b style="color:var(--tx)">To hire at launch:</b> a galvanics process engineer and a cutting engineer (critical path), a plant manager, two shifts of operators, QC, maintenance, sales. About 20 people at the start <span class="e">est.</span></div></div>
|
||||
<div><div class="x"><b style="color:var(--tx)">To hire at launch:</b> a galvanics process engineer and a cutting engineer (critical path), a plant manager, two shifts of operators, QC, maintenance, sales. About 20 people at the start <span class="e">est.</span>, plus 1 to 2 for the cassette and CD-R lines.</div></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="ppl">
|
||||
<h3>Partners</h3>
|
||||
@@ -748,29 +811,29 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<p class="s" style="margin-top:16px">Making Vinyl Europe, Haarlem, 30 September to 2 October 2026: strong interest in full traceability; Pheenix offered references and a factory visit, OMS sent galvanics reference prices, SST Frankfurt offered help. Supplier-side evidence.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> README "Team"; business plan A, sections 1, 12.1 and 12.2; equipment/pressing-line.md; equipment/galvanics.md; suppliers/vendor-landscape.md.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">The founding team is two people: Simona leads the project and the audio side, Alexander the technical side; buildfor.life supports in a consulting capacity. The plant needs most of its crew from the start, and two hires are on the critical path: a galvanics process engineer and a cutting engineer. The vendors are established specialists: Newbilt for all three presses, Pheenix Alpha for galvanics, Sibert for stamper preparation, Sillitoe for the cutting system. Ploy Printing intends to co-invest and will supply packaging, so that contract is priced at arm's length and Ploy abstains on it. Shareholder terms are open. Sources: README; business plan A, section 12.</aside>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> README "Team"; business plan B, sections 1, 12.1 and 12.2; equipment/pressing-line.md; equipment/galvanics.md; suppliers/vendor-landscape.md.</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">The founding team is two people: Simona leads the project and the audio side, Alexander the technical side; buildfor.life supports in a consulting capacity. The plant needs most of its crew from the start, and two hires are on the critical path: a galvanics process engineer and a cutting engineer. The vendors are established specialists: Newbilt for all three presses, Pheenix Alpha for galvanics, Sibert for stamper preparation, Sillitoe for the cutting system. Ploy Printing intends to co-invest and will supply packaging, so that contract is priced at arm's length and Ploy abstains on it. Shareholder terms are open. Sources: README; business plan B, section 12.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- 15 -->
|
||||
<!-- 16 -->
|
||||
<section class="slide s15 grooves" data-title="The ask">
|
||||
<div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>The ask and next steps</div>
|
||||
<h2>Approve phase 0 now; commit in tranches once the gates clear</h2>
|
||||
<h2>Approve phase 0 now; commit to Plan B in tranches once the gates clear</h2>
|
||||
<div class="bd">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<div class="ask" style="display:grid;grid-template-columns:500px 1fr;gap:32px;align-items:start">
|
||||
<div><h3>Now: phase 0</h3><div class="v">1.3M to 2.6M THB</div><p class="s" style="margin-top:10px">~USD 40k to 80k over 3 to 6 months, part of the plan price</p></div>
|
||||
<p class="t" style="padding-top:34px">BOI consultant, Thai counsel for the lease and zoning, a soil boring test, and the quotes that settle most of the investment band. Then, on the gates clearing, a commitment in principle to one plan, released in tranches.</p>
|
||||
<p class="t" style="padding-top:34px">BOI consultant, Thai counsel for the lease and zoning, a soil boring test, and the quotes that settle most of the band. Then, on the gates clearing, a commitment in principle to Plan B at ~215M THB (~217M at the midpoint), released in tranches.</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<h3 style="margin-top:26px">Tranches, share of the investment before the reserve <span class="e">est.</span></h3>
|
||||
<h3 style="margin-top:26px">Plan B tranches, share of the investment before the reserve <span class="e">est.</span></h3>
|
||||
<table class="tb tr">
|
||||
<tr><th>#</th><th>Trigger</th><th>Covers</th><th class="n">Share</th><th class="n">A, M THB</th><th class="n">B, M THB</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>0</td><td>Now</td><td>Phase 0 work</td><td class="n">1 to 2 %</td><td class="n">1.3 to 2.6</td><td class="n">1.3 to 2.6</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>1</td><td>BOI certificate, lease, zoning, soil, pricing validated</td><td>Deposits on every long-lead order</td><td class="n">20 to 30 %</td><td class="n">~33 to 50</td><td class="n">~40 to 60</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>2</td><td>Building permit; build dates in writing</td><td>Construction, utilities, balance payments</td><td class="n">35 to 45 %</td><td class="n">~58 to 75</td><td class="n">~71 to 91</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>3</td><td>Building watertight; first machinery shipped</td><td>Fit-out, clean zones, ZLD, metrology, software</td><td class="n">15 to 20 %</td><td class="n">~25 to 33</td><td class="n">~30 to 40</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>4</td><td>Metal path commissioned; first stampers</td><td>Working capital; the reserve from here on</td><td class="n">8 to 12 %</td><td class="n">~13 to 20</td><td class="n">~16 to 24</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><th>#</th><th>Trigger</th><th>Covers</th><th class="n">Share</th><th class="n">M THB</th></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>0</td><td>Now</td><td>Phase 0 work</td><td class="n">1 to 2 %</td><td class="n">1.3 to 2.6</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>1</td><td>BOI certificate, lease, zoning, soil, pricing validated</td><td>Deposits on every long-lead order</td><td class="n">20 to 30 %</td><td class="n">~40 to 60</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>2</td><td>Building permit; build dates in writing</td><td>Construction, utility yard, utilities, balance payments</td><td class="n">35 to 45 %</td><td class="n">~71 to 91</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>3</td><td>Building watertight; first machinery shipped</td><td>Fit-out, ZLD, owned PV and battery, crane, corridor, full metrology, software, cassette and CD-R</td><td class="n">15 to 20 %</td><td class="n">~30 to 40</td></tr>
|
||||
<tr><td>4</td><td>Metal path commissioned; first stampers</td><td>Working capital; the reserve from here on</td><td class="n">8 to 12 %</td><td class="n">~16 to 24</td></tr>
|
||||
</table>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
@@ -780,32 +843,32 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
<li>Pheenix galvanics quote, against OMS's reference</li>
|
||||
<li>Sillitoe quote and build time; Sibert's itemised quotation</li>
|
||||
<li>Building RFQ to two or three Thai contractors, with the soil test</li>
|
||||
<li>Metrology quotes; solar PPA offers next to a purchase quote</li>
|
||||
<li>Metrology quotes; solar and battery purchase quotes, a PPA offer beside them</li>
|
||||
<li>Biomass boilers from Getabec and Chinese makers; fuel offers</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<h3 style="margin-top:26px">Decisions for the investor</h3>
|
||||
<ul class="list sm">
|
||||
<li>Plan A or Plan B; the equity and debt mix within 3:1</li>
|
||||
<li>The equity and debt mix within 3:1 (equity at least ~54M THB)</li>
|
||||
<li>How quotes landing above the plan price are funded</li>
|
||||
<li>CD replication, yes or no, before the BOI filing; hedging of the EUR orders</li>
|
||||
<li>Each Plan B item weighed against its lever; CD replication before the BOI filing; hedging of the EUR orders</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="unl">
|
||||
<div class="u"><div class="h">Phase 0 unlocks</div><div class="x">The BOI filing, the lease heads of terms and the zoning answer, and quotes in place of the estimated blocks: the next version of the plan.</div></div>
|
||||
<div class="u"><div class="h">The round unlocks</div><div class="x">Every long-lead order and the build, commissioned in sequence: metal path, Duplex, Classic. First paying release Q4 2028 to mid-2029, open.</div></div>
|
||||
<div class="u"><div class="h">Revenue then funds</div><div class="x">The second Duplex system (~15.4M THB at the midpoint <span class="e">est.</span>), metrology, corridor, cassette and CD-R where Plan A defers them.</div></div>
|
||||
<div class="u"><div class="h">The round unlocks</div><div class="x">Every long-lead order and the build, commissioned in sequence: metal path, Duplex, Classic, with the owned PV, crane and corridor in place. First paying release Q4 2028 to mid-2029, open.</div></div>
|
||||
<div class="u"><div class="h">Revenue then funds</div><div class="x">The second Duplex system (~15.4M THB at the midpoint <span class="e">est.</span>), PV on the PV-ready office roof and canopies (~120 kWp, ~2.4M to 3.1M THB <span class="e">est.</span>), the phase 2 building.</div></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plans A and B, sections 8.3, 14.1 and 14.2; roadmap.md phases 0 to 2. Gates before any order: market validation, the BOI certificate, and land (zoning, lease terms, soil).</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">The ask has two steps. Now: approve phase 0, about 1.3M to 2.6M THB over three to six months, part of the plan price. It buys the BOI consultant, Thai counsel on the lease and zoning, the soil test and the quotes that settle most of the investment band. Then, once market validation, the BOI certificate and the land gates clear, a commitment in principle to one plan, released in tranches so nothing is ordered before the certificate and validated pricing. Decisions for the investor: which plan, the equity and debt mix within 3:1, how quotes landing high are funded, and CD replication before the BOI filing. Sources: business plan A, sections 8.3 and 14.</aside>
|
||||
<p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 8.3, 14.1 and 14.2; roadmap.md phases 0 to 2. Tranche amounts are the shares applied to Plan B's ~201.6M THB before the reserve (arithmetic). Gates before any order: market validation, the BOI certificate, and land (zoning, lease terms, soil).</p>
|
||||
<footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
|
||||
<aside class="notes">Now: approve phase 0, about 1.3M to 2.6M THB over three to six months, part of the plan price, for the BOI consultant, counsel, the soil test and the quotes. Then, once market validation, the BOI certificate and the land gates clear, a commitment in principle to Plan B at about 215M THB, released in tranches so nothing is ordered before the certificate and validated pricing. Decisions: the equity and debt mix within 3:1, how quotes landing high are funded, and CD replication before the BOI filing. Why not A? It stays on file as the lowest-capital variant. Sources: business plan B, sections 8.3 and 14.</aside>
|
||||
</section>
|
||||
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<nav class="ctl" id="ctl" aria-label="Slide controls">
|
||||
<button type="button" id="bPrev" title="Previous slide (Left)" aria-label="Previous slide"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M15 5l-7 7 7 7"/></svg></button>
|
||||
<span class="cnt" id="cnt">1 / 15</span>
|
||||
<span class="cnt" id="cnt">1 / 16</span>
|
||||
<button type="button" id="bNext" title="Next slide (Right)" aria-label="Next slide"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M9 5l7 7-7 7"/></svg></button>
|
||||
<span class="sep"></span>
|
||||
<button type="button" id="bOv" title="Overview (O)" aria-label="Overview"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24"><rect x="4" y="4" width="6.5" height="6.5" rx="1"/><rect x="13.5" y="4" width="6.5" height="6.5" rx="1"/><rect x="4" y="13.5" width="6.5" height="6.5" rx="1"/><rect x="13.5" y="13.5" width="6.5" height="6.5" rx="1"/></svg></button>
|
||||
@@ -821,18 +884,17 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
|
||||
Units: M THB, M USD, M THB a year, MWh a year; dates ISO.
|
||||
====================================================================== */
|
||||
const SRC = {
|
||||
bp33: "Business plan A, section 3.3; revenue-model.md 'First market data point' and 'Record Industry's calculator'",
|
||||
bp91: "Business plan A, section 9.1 (blended price USD 3.76 to 5.27 at 60 % specials)",
|
||||
bp33: "Business plan B, section 3.3; revenue-model.md 'First market data point' and 'Record Industry's calculator'",
|
||||
bp91: "Business plan B, section 9.1 (blended price USD 3.76 to 5.27 at 60 % specials)",
|
||||
ti: "total-investment.md 'Launch plant' (block ranges) and 'Two plans'",
|
||||
bpA81: "Business plan A, section 8.1, all blocks",
|
||||
bpB81: "Business plan B, section 8.1, all blocks",
|
||||
rm: "revenue-model.md 'Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)'; business plans A and B, section 9.4",
|
||||
calcA: "fleet-calculator.html preset planA, cash view (business plan A, figure 12)",
|
||||
rm: "revenue-model.md 'Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)'; business plan B, section 9.4",
|
||||
calcB: "fleet-calculator.html preset planB, cash view (business plan B, figure 12)",
|
||||
bio: "biomass.md; business plan A, sections 1 and 8.4",
|
||||
pv: "sustainability.md 'What ~520 kWp means on the grid'; business plan A, section 1",
|
||||
calcA: "fleet-calculator.html preset planA, cash view (comparison only)",
|
||||
bio: "biomass.md; business plan B, sections 1 and 8.4",
|
||||
pv: "sustainability.md 'What ~520 kWp means on the grid'; business plan B, section 1",
|
||||
tl: "project-timeline.md, Gantt (August 2026 calendar)",
|
||||
bp10: "Business plan A, section 10"
|
||||
bp10: "Business plan B, section 10"
|
||||
};
|
||||
const DATA = {
|
||||
fx: { usdThb: 33, src: "ti" },
|
||||
@@ -841,31 +903,32 @@ const DATA = {
|
||||
{ k: "cnx", label: "CNX assumed blended price, 60\u00a0% specials", lo: 124, hi: 174, txt: "124 to 174 THB", src: "bp91" },
|
||||
{ k: "th", label: "Thai market, per unit incl. a printed jacket (ResurRec)", lo: 535, hi: 780, txt: "535 to 780 THB", src: "bp33" }
|
||||
],
|
||||
/* investment groups, [low, high] in M THB; sums give 121.65 to 212.6 (A) and 146.15 to 257.1 (B) */
|
||||
/* Plan B block groups, [low, high] in M THB; the nine groups sum to 146.15 to 257.1 (midpoint 201.6) */
|
||||
invest: {
|
||||
blocks: [
|
||||
{ k: "press", label: "Presses: Newbilt Duplex and Classic", a: [21.2, 27.4], b: [21.2, 27.4], src: "ti" },
|
||||
{ k: "metal", label: "Metal path: cutting, galvanics, ZLD, prep", a: [30.5, 46.0], b: [30.5, 46.0], src: "ti" },
|
||||
{ k: "metro", label: "Metrology and PVC lab", a: [7.4, 20.2], b: [13.4, 31.7], src: "bpA81" },
|
||||
{ k: "util", label: "Utilities, HVAC, utility yard", a: [24.25, 44.9], b: [24.45, 45.2], src: "bpA81" },
|
||||
{ k: "bldg", label: "Building, crane, workshop, corridor", a: [23.7, 41.8], b: [27.8, 51.2], src: "bpB81" },
|
||||
{ k: "solar", label: "Solar PV and battery, owned", a: [0, 0], b: [12.4, 17.0], src: "bpB81", aTxt: "via the PPA" },
|
||||
{ k: "soft", label: "Software, ERPNext, platform", a: [3.8, 10.2], b: [3.8, 10.2], src: "ti" },
|
||||
{ k: "cass", label: "Cassette and CD-R duplication", a: [0, 0], b: [1.8, 6.3], src: "bpB81", aTxt: "later" },
|
||||
{ k: "other", label: "Phase 0, freight and installation, working capital", a: [10.8, 22.1], b: [10.8, 22.1], src: "ti" },
|
||||
{ k: "res", label: "Ramp-up reserve", a: [10, 20], b: [10, 20], src: "ti" }
|
||||
{ k: "press", label: "Presses: Newbilt Duplex and Classic", b: [21.2, 27.4], src: "ti" },
|
||||
{ k: "metal", label: "Metal path: cutting, galvanics, ZLD, prep", b: [30.5, 46.0], src: "ti" },
|
||||
{ k: "metro", label: "Metrology, full stack, and PVC lab", b: [13.4, 31.7], src: "bpB81" },
|
||||
{ k: "util", label: "Utilities, HVAC, utility yard", b: [24.45, 45.2], src: "bpB81" },
|
||||
{ k: "bldg", label: "Building, crane, workshop, corridor", b: [27.8, 51.2], src: "bpB81" },
|
||||
{ k: "solar", label: "Solar PV and battery, owned", b: [12.4, 17.0], src: "bpB81" },
|
||||
{ k: "soft", label: "Software, ERPNext, platform", b: [3.8, 10.2], src: "ti" },
|
||||
{ k: "cass", label: "Cassette and CD-R duplication", b: [1.8, 6.3], src: "bpB81" },
|
||||
{ k: "other", label: "Phase 0, freight and installation, working capital", b: [10.8, 22.1], src: "ti" },
|
||||
{ k: "res", label: "Ramp-up reserve", b: [10, 20], src: "ti" }
|
||||
],
|
||||
total: { a: { mid: 167.1, price: 182, lo: 132, hi: 233 }, b: { mid: 201.6, price: 217, lo: 156, hi: 277 }, src: "ti" }
|
||||
total: { sub: [146, 201.6, 257], price: [156, 217, 277], src: "bpB81" },
|
||||
planA: { price: 182, lo: 132, hi: 233, src: "ti" }
|
||||
},
|
||||
op: {
|
||||
cases: ["Adverse", "Central", "Favourable"],
|
||||
revenue: [2.28, 3.65, 5.41], ebitda: [0.23, 1.73, 3.79],
|
||||
opA: [-0.41, 1.33, 3.54], opB: [-0.55, 1.24, 3.50], src: "rm"
|
||||
revenue: [2.28, 3.65, 5.41], ebitda: [0.23, 1.73, 3.79], op: [-0.55, 1.24, 3.50], src: "rm",
|
||||
opA: [-0.41, 1.33, 3.54] /* Plan A, comparison only (source line) */
|
||||
},
|
||||
cash: {
|
||||
years: [0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10],
|
||||
a: { cum: [-5.52,-5.06,-3.68,-1.77,0.41,2.58,4.75,6.93,9.10,11.27,13.45], pay: 3.8, src: "calcA" },
|
||||
b: { cum: [-6.56,-6.08,-4.66,-2.70,-0.47,1.76,3.99,6.22,8.46,10.69,12.92], pay: 4.2, src: "calcB" }
|
||||
b: { cum: [-6.56,-6.08,-4.66,-2.70,-0.47,1.76,3.99,6.22,8.46,10.69,12.92], pay: 4.2, src: "calcB" },
|
||||
a: { cum: [-5.52,-5.06,-3.68,-1.77,0.41,2.58,4.75,6.93,9.10,11.27,13.45], pay: 3.8, src: "calcA" }
|
||||
},
|
||||
steam: { biomass: 0.67, electric: 4.9, src: "bio" },
|
||||
solar: { used: 633, plant: 1036, share: 61, src: "pv" },
|
||||
@@ -879,7 +942,7 @@ const DATA = {
|
||||
{ g: "Site", label: "Design and building permit", s: "2027-03-01", e: "2027-06-29" },
|
||||
{ g: "Site", label: "Construction", s: "2027-07-01", e: "2028-02-26" },
|
||||
{ g: "Site", label: "Factory licence (Ror.Ngor. 4)", s: "2028-01-01", e: "2028-05-30" },
|
||||
{ g: "Site", label: "Utilities, solar, fit-out", s: "2028-03-01", e: "2028-06-29" },
|
||||
{ g: "Site", label: "Utilities, PV, battery, fit-out", s: "2028-03-01", e: "2028-06-29" },
|
||||
{ g: "Machines", label: "Press build at vendor (assumed)", s: "2027-06-15", e: "2028-04-10", crit: 1 },
|
||||
{ g: "Machines", label: "Sea freight", s: "2028-04-10", e: "2028-05-30", crit: 1 },
|
||||
{ g: "Machines", label: "Install, commission, train", s: "2028-07-01", e: "2028-09-14", crit: 1 },
|
||||
@@ -901,6 +964,7 @@ function el(p, tag, a, txt) {
|
||||
}
|
||||
const f1 = x => x.toFixed(1);
|
||||
const f2 = x => (x < 0 ? "-" : "") + Math.abs(x).toFixed(2);
|
||||
const fr = x => (Math.round(x * 100) % 10 ? x.toFixed(2) : x.toFixed(1));
|
||||
const mid = r => (r[0] + r[1]) / 2;
|
||||
const C = { ac: "#e8b04a", b: "#8eaac3", tx: "#efe9dd", tx2: "#d2cbbd", mu: "#a59e91", dim: "#827b70", neg: "#d6876c", line: "rgba(236,230,218,.15)", line2: "rgba(236,230,218,.08)" };
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -924,30 +988,37 @@ function chPrice() {
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Plan B by block group: midpoint bar, low-to-high whisker, the range in the right column, totals below */
|
||||
function chInvest() {
|
||||
const s = document.getElementById("chInvest"); if (!s) return;
|
||||
const L = 372, R = 905, max = 55, X = v => L + v / max * (R - L), rh = 56, top = 10;
|
||||
const D = DATA.invest, B = D.blocks, L = 372, R = 790, W = 1000, max = 55, X = v => L + v / max * (R - L), rh = 46, top = 30;
|
||||
const bot = top + rh * B.length;
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: W - 2, y: 16, "text-anchor": "end", "font-size": 12.5, "font-weight": 600, "letter-spacing": "1.6", fill: C.mu }, "LOW TO HIGH");
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(0), y: 16, "font-size": 12.5, "font-weight": 600, "letter-spacing": "1.6", fill: C.mu }, "MIDPOINT");
|
||||
for (const t of [0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50]) {
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: X(t), x2: X(t), y1: top, y2: top + rh * DATA.invest.blocks.length, class: "gr" });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(t), y: top + rh * DATA.invest.blocks.length + 24, "text-anchor": "middle", "font-size": 14 }, t + "M");
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: X(t), x2: X(t), y1: top, y2: bot, class: "gr" });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(t), y: bot + 22, "text-anchor": "middle", "font-size": 14 }, t + "M");
|
||||
}
|
||||
DATA.invest.blocks.forEach((b, i) => {
|
||||
const y = top + i * rh, res = b.k === "res";
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: y + 33, fill: res ? C.mu : C.tx2, "font-size": 16.5 }, b.label);
|
||||
[["a", C.ac, 8], ["b", C.b, 29]].forEach(([p, col, dy]) => {
|
||||
const r = b[p], m = mid(r), yy = y + dy;
|
||||
if (r[1] === 0) {
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(0) + 6, y: yy + 13, fill: C.dim, "font-size": 14, "font-style": "italic" }, b[p + "Txt"] || "none");
|
||||
return;
|
||||
}
|
||||
el(s, "rect", { x: X(0), y: yy, width: X(m) - X(0), height: 17, rx: 3, fill: col, "fill-opacity": res ? 0.35 : 0.92, stroke: res ? col : "none", "stroke-dasharray": res ? "4 3" : "" });
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: X(r[0]), x2: X(r[1]), y1: yy + 8.5, y2: yy + 8.5, stroke: C.tx, "stroke-opacity": .55, "stroke-width": 1.5 });
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: X(r[0]), x2: X(r[0]), y1: yy + 3, y2: yy + 14, stroke: C.tx, "stroke-opacity": .55, "stroke-width": 1.5 });
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: X(r[1]), x2: X(r[1]), y1: yy + 3, y2: yy + 14, stroke: C.tx, "stroke-opacity": .55, "stroke-width": 1.5 });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: Math.max(X(r[1]), X(m)) + 10, y: yy + 14, fill: col, "font-size": 15, "font-weight": 600 }, f1(m));
|
||||
});
|
||||
if (i < DATA.invest.blocks.length - 1) el(s, "line", { x1: 0, x2: R + 70, y1: y + rh, y2: y + rh, stroke: C.line2 });
|
||||
B.forEach((b, i) => {
|
||||
const y = top + i * rh, res = b.k === "res", r = b.b, m = mid(r), yy = y + 14;
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: y + 29, fill: res ? C.mu : C.tx2, "font-size": 16.5 }, b.label);
|
||||
el(s, "rect", { x: X(0), y: yy, width: X(m) - X(0), height: 19, rx: 3, fill: C.ac, "fill-opacity": res ? 0.3 : 0.92, stroke: res ? C.ac : "none", "stroke-dasharray": res ? "4 3" : "" });
|
||||
const yc = yy + 9.5, wk = { stroke: C.tx, "stroke-opacity": .6, "stroke-width": 1.5 };
|
||||
el(s, "line", Object.assign({ x1: X(r[0]), x2: X(r[1]), y1: yc, y2: yc }, wk));
|
||||
el(s, "line", Object.assign({ x1: X(r[0]), x2: X(r[0]), y1: yc - 6, y2: yc + 6 }, wk));
|
||||
el(s, "line", Object.assign({ x1: X(r[1]), x2: X(r[1]), y1: yc - 6, y2: yc + 6 }, wk));
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: Math.max(X(r[1]), X(m)) + 10, y: yc + 5.5, fill: res ? C.mu : C.ac, "font-size": 16, "font-weight": 700 }, f1(m));
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: W - 2, y: yc + 5.5, "text-anchor": "end", fill: C.mu, "font-size": 15 }, res ? r[0] + " to " + r[1] : f1(r[0] + 1e-9) + " to " + f1(r[1] + 1e-9));
|
||||
if (i < B.length - 1) el(s, "line", { x1: 0, x2: W, y1: y + rh, y2: y + rh, stroke: C.line2 });
|
||||
});
|
||||
const T = D.total, y1 = bot + 66, y2 = y1 + 40;
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: 0, x2: W, y1: bot + 38, y2: bot + 38, stroke: C.line });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: y1, fill: C.tx2, "font-size": 16.5 }, "Launch plant, every block");
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(0), y: y1, fill: C.tx, "font-size": 17, "font-weight": 600 }, f1(T.sub[1]) + "M THB");
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: W - 2, y: y1, "text-anchor": "end", fill: C.mu, "font-size": 15 }, "~" + T.sub[0] + " to " + T.sub[2]);
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: y2, fill: C.ac, "font-size": 19, "font-weight": 700 }, "Plan B, reserve in");
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(0), y: y2, fill: C.ac, "font-size": 19, "font-weight": 700 }, "~" + T.price[1] + "M THB");
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: W - 2, y: y2, "text-anchor": "end", fill: C.tx2, "font-size": 16, "font-weight": 600 }, "~" + T.price[0] + " to " + T.price[2]);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function chOp() {
|
||||
@@ -957,20 +1028,21 @@ function chOp() {
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: L, x2: R, y1: Y(t), y2: Y(t), class: t === 0 ? "z" : "gr" });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: L - 12, y: Y(t) + 5, "text-anchor": "end", "font-size": 14 }, t + "M");
|
||||
}
|
||||
const gw = (R - L) / 3, bw = 46, gap = 12;
|
||||
const ser = [["revenue", "rgba(236,230,218,.32)", C.tx2], ["ebitda", C.ac, C.ac], ["opA", "#b9833a", "#d9a560"], ["opB", C.b, C.b]];
|
||||
const gw = (R - L) / 3, bw = 62, gap = 16;
|
||||
const ser = [["revenue", "rgba(236,230,218,.32)", C.tx2], ["ebitda", C.ac, C.ac], ["op", C.b, C.b]];
|
||||
D.cases.forEach((c, i) => {
|
||||
const gx = L + gw * i + (gw - (bw * 4 + gap * 3)) / 2;
|
||||
const gx = L + gw * i + (gw - (bw * ser.length + gap * (ser.length - 1))) / 2;
|
||||
ser.forEach(([k, fill, tcol], j) => {
|
||||
const v = D[k][i], x = gx + j * (bw + gap), y0 = Y(0), y1 = Y(v);
|
||||
el(s, "rect", { x: x, y: Math.min(y0, y1), width: bw, height: Math.max(1, Math.abs(y1 - y0)), rx: 3, fill: v < 0 ? C.neg : fill });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: x + bw / 2, y: v < 0 ? y1 + 20 : y1 - 8, "text-anchor": "middle", fill: v < 0 ? C.neg : tcol, "font-size": 14.5, "font-weight": 600 }, f2(v));
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: x + bw / 2, y: v < 0 ? y1 + 20 : y1 - 8, "text-anchor": "middle", fill: v < 0 ? C.neg : tcol, "font-size": 15, "font-weight": 600 }, f2(v));
|
||||
});
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: L + gw * i + gw / 2, y: B + 40, "text-anchor": "middle", fill: C.tx, "font-size": 18, "font-weight": 600 }, c);
|
||||
if (i) el(s, "line", { x1: L + gw * i, x2: L + gw * i, y1: T, y2: B + 10, stroke: C.line2 });
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Plan B leads; Plan A is drawn faint, dashed, for comparison */
|
||||
function chCash() {
|
||||
const s = document.getElementById("chCash"); if (!s) return;
|
||||
const D = DATA.cash, L = 70, R = 900, T = 20, B = 580, lo = -8, hi = 14;
|
||||
@@ -980,22 +1052,19 @@ function chCash() {
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: L - 12, y: Y(t) + 5, "text-anchor": "end", "font-size": 14 }, t + "M");
|
||||
}
|
||||
D.years.forEach(y => el(s, "text", { x: X(y), y: B + 28, "text-anchor": "middle", "font-size": 14 }, y === 0 ? "Y0" : String(y)));
|
||||
// payback markers
|
||||
[["a", C.ac, -1], ["b", C.b, 1]].forEach(([p, col, side]) => {
|
||||
const px = X(D[p].pay);
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: px, x2: px, y1: Y(0), y2: Y(side < 0 ? 7.6 : -4.6), stroke: col, "stroke-dasharray": "3 4", "stroke-width": 1.5 });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: px + (side < 0 ? -8 : 8), y: Y(side < 0 ? 8 : -5.4), "text-anchor": side < 0 ? "end" : "start", fill: col, "font-size": 15, "font-weight": 600 }, "year ~" + D[p].pay);
|
||||
});
|
||||
[["b", C.b], ["a", C.ac]].forEach(([p, col]) => {
|
||||
const pts = D[p].cum.map((v, i) => X(i).toFixed(1) + "," + Y(v).toFixed(1)).join(" ");
|
||||
el(s, "polyline", { points: pts, fill: "none", stroke: col, "stroke-width": 3.5, "stroke-linejoin": "round" });
|
||||
D[p].cum.forEach((v, i) => el(s, "circle", { cx: X(i), cy: Y(v), r: 5, fill: "#0d0f14", stroke: col, "stroke-width": 2.5 }));
|
||||
});
|
||||
const a = D.a.cum, b = D.b.cum;
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(0) + 10, y: Y(a[0]) - 14, fill: C.ac, "font-size": 15, "font-weight": 600 }, f2(a[0]));
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(0) + 10, y: Y(b[0]) + 26, fill: C.b, "font-size": 15, "font-weight": 600 }, f2(b[0]));
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(10) + 12, y: Y(a[10]) - 2, fill: C.ac, "font-size": 15, "font-weight": 600 }, f2(a[10]));
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(10) + 12, y: Y(b[10]) + 16, fill: C.b, "font-size": 15, "font-weight": 600 }, f2(b[10]));
|
||||
// Plan A, faint
|
||||
el(s, "polyline", { points: a.map((v, i) => X(i).toFixed(1) + "," + Y(v).toFixed(1)).join(" "), fill: "none", stroke: "rgba(236,230,218,.4)", "stroke-width": 2, "stroke-dasharray": "7 6", "stroke-linejoin": "round" });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(10) + 12, y: Y(a[10]) - 4, fill: C.mu, "font-size": 14 }, "A " + f2(a[10]));
|
||||
// Plan B payback marker
|
||||
const px = X(D.b.pay);
|
||||
el(s, "line", { x1: px, x2: px, y1: Y(0), y2: Y(-4.6), stroke: C.ac, "stroke-dasharray": "3 4", "stroke-width": 1.5 });
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: px + 8, y: Y(-5.4), fill: C.ac, "font-size": 15.5, "font-weight": 700 }, "back to zero, year ~" + D.b.pay);
|
||||
// Plan B
|
||||
el(s, "polyline", { points: b.map((v, i) => X(i).toFixed(1) + "," + Y(v).toFixed(1)).join(" "), fill: "none", stroke: C.ac, "stroke-width": 4, "stroke-linejoin": "round" });
|
||||
b.forEach((v, i) => el(s, "circle", { cx: X(i), cy: Y(v), r: 5.5, fill: "#0d0f14", stroke: C.ac, "stroke-width": 2.8 }));
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(0) + 12, y: Y(b[0]) + 26, fill: C.ac, "font-size": 16, "font-weight": 700 }, f2(b[0]));
|
||||
el(s, "text", { x: X(10) + 12, y: Y(b[10]) + 18, fill: C.ac, "font-size": 16, "font-weight": 700 }, f2(b[10]));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function chSteam() {
|
||||
@@ -1021,7 +1090,7 @@ function chSolar() {
|
||||
|
||||
function chGantt() {
|
||||
const s = document.getElementById("chGantt"); if (!s) return;
|
||||
const D = DATA.gantt, L = 390, R = 1700, T = 30, rh = 25;
|
||||
const D = DATA.gantt, L = 390, R = 1700, T = 30, rh = 24;
|
||||
const d = x => new Date(x + "T00:00:00Z").getTime(), t0 = d(D.from), t1 = d(D.to);
|
||||
const X = x => L + (d(x) - t0) / (t1 - t0) * (R - L);
|
||||
const n = D.rows.length, Bt = T + n * rh;
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -71,13 +71,15 @@ document.documentElement.setAttribute("data-theme",t);})();
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li>
|
||||
<a href="pitch/">
|
||||
<strong>Investment proposal (slides)</strong>
|
||||
<span>The plant in 15 slides for BOI, bank and institutional
|
||||
readers: the opportunity, the full chain under one roof, the
|
||||
platform, site and utilities, Plans A and B by block, the operating
|
||||
picture with its adverse case, cash and returns, BOI promotion and
|
||||
its conditions, schedule, risks, team and the ask. Press P for the
|
||||
presenter view; a PDF is linked in the control bar.</span>
|
||||
<strong>Investment proposal, Plan B (slides)</strong>
|
||||
<span>The plant in 16 slides for BOI, bank and institutional
|
||||
readers, proposing Plan B (~215M THB), the plan the main investor
|
||||
wants, with Plan A as the comparison: the opportunity, the full
|
||||
chain under one roof, the platform, site and utilities, Plan B by
|
||||
block and why Plan B, the operating picture with its adverse case,
|
||||
cash and returns, BOI promotion and its conditions, schedule,
|
||||
risks, team and the ask. Press P for the presenter view; a PDF is
|
||||
linked in the control bar.</span>
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in new issue
Block a user