diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 2ca9e07..5d65d10 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -316,8 +316,9 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents: same output, payback ~3.8 years on ~217M THB: its extra pays back through what the table leaves out), the five-press table, and the levers and caveats behind the numbers -- [Investor deck](docs/pitch/index.html) (October 2026): the plant in 15 - web slides for BOI, bank and institutional readers, both plans, with a +- [Investor deck](docs/pitch/index.html) (October 2026): the plant in 16 + web slides for BOI, bank and institutional readers, proposing Plan B + (~215M THB) with Plan A as the comparison, with a presenter view (press P) and a [PDF](docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck.pdf); every figure carries its source in the business plan or the owning doc diff --git a/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck.pdf b/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck.pdf index f61c1ca..6911519 100644 Binary files a/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck.pdf 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/dev/null and b/docs/pitch/img/plan-b-iso-gf.webp differ diff --git a/docs/pitch/img/plan-b-iso-hall.webp b/docs/pitch/img/plan-b-iso-hall.webp new file mode 100644 index 0000000..56750bf Binary files /dev/null and b/docs/pitch/img/plan-b-iso-hall.webp differ diff --git a/docs/pitch/index.html b/docs/pitch/index.html index 7ea7eb9..0702694 100644 --- a/docs/pitch/index.html +++ b/docs/pitch/index.html @@ -191,7 +191,7 @@ svg.chart .z{stroke:rgba(236,230,218,.35);stroke-width:1} /* ---------- slide 10 ---------- */ .s10 .bd{grid-template-columns:1000px 1fr;gap:56px;margin-top:30px} -.kp td{font-size:18px;padding:9px 10px} +.kp td{font-size:19px;padding:11px 10px} .kp th{padding:0 10px 8px} /* ---------- slide 11 ---------- */ @@ -208,7 +208,7 @@ svg.chart .z{stroke:rgba(236,230,218,.35);stroke-width:1} .fin .tbd{margin-top:18px;font-family:var(--serif);font-size:26px;line-height:1.3;color:var(--tx);padding:16px 22px;border-left:3px solid var(--ac);background:var(--acs);border-radius:0 10px 10px 0} /* ---------- slide 12 ---------- */ -.s12 .bd{grid-template-rows:auto auto;gap:22px;margin-top:22px} +.s12 .bd{grid-template-rows:auto auto;gap:16px;margin-top:20px} .s12 .cols{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr 1fr;gap:40px} .s12 .cols .t{font-size:17px} .seq{margin:0;padding:0;list-style:none;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:9px;counter-reset:q} @@ -246,6 +246,27 @@ svg.chart .z{stroke:rgba(236,230,218,.35);stroke-width:1} .chk li{position:relative;padding-left:30px;font-size:17px;line-height:1.4;color:var(--tx2)} .chk li::before{content:"";position:absolute;left:0;top:4px;width:16px;height:16px;border:2px solid var(--ac);border-radius:4px} +/* ---------- Plan B additions ---------- */ +.s1 .plans b{color:var(--ac);font-weight:600} +.tb th.ac{color:var(--ac)} +.tb tr.tot td.neg{color:var(--neg)} +.tot2 .v .usd{font-family:var(--sans);font-size:19px;color:var(--mu);margin-left:14px;letter-spacing:.02em;vertical-align:.35em} 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td.n:nth-child(2),.kp td.n:nth-child(2){color:var(--tx);font-weight:600} +.cmp td.n:nth-child(3),.kp td.n:nth-child(3){color:var(--mu)} + /* Palatino's descent runs below the line box: keep it inside the element */ h1,h2,.stat .v,.s1 .keys .v,.big3 .v,.tot2 .v,.fin .need .v,.ask .v,.kp4 .v,.chain .nm,.flow .fs .nm,.ppl .nm,.pill4 .h,.feat .h,.unl .h{padding-bottom:.1em} h1{padding-bottom:.14em} @@ -316,27 +337,27 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
-
Investment proposal· Draft for discussion · October 2026
+
Investment proposal: Plan B, ~215M THB· Draft for discussion · October 2026

CNX Vinyl

A full-chain vinyl record plant for Asia-Pacific, in Chiang Mai, Thailand

-

Investment proposal, Plans A (~180M THB) and B (~215M THB), October 2026, draft. One plant, two ways to fund it.

+

Investment proposal: Plan B, ~215M THB, the launch plant with everything in. October 2026, draft. Plan A, the lowest-capital variant (~182M THB), appears only as the comparison.

-
~182M
THB, Plan A at the midpoint, labelled ~180M: six cost levers
-
~217M
THB, Plan B at the midpoint, labelled ~215M: everything in
-
0.58 to 0.90M
records a year at 60 % specials, the same three presses in both est.
+
~217M
THB at the midpoint (~6.56M USD), labelled ~215M: ramp-up reserve in, no contingency
+
0.58 to 0.90M
records a year at 60 % specials on three Newbilt presses est.
+
Whole chain
cutting, galvanics, stamper prep and pressing in-house from the first release

Simona Meesaiyati, Project Lead · Alexander Grabowski, Technical Consultant · supported by buildfor.life · label name Poy Records

-
Isometric render of the planned plant: factory hall with solar roof, office, utility yard, car park and road
-
Plan A as the plant and business plan calculator draws it: schematic, on the Payap scenario layout and a placeholder plot. The site is not decided.
+
Isometric render of the planned plant: factory hall with the owned solar array on its roof, office, utility yard, car park and road
+
Plan B as the plant and business plan calculator draws it: the owned ~520 kWp array on the factory roof, office roof and canopies PV-ready. Schematic, on the Payap scenario layout and a placeholder plot; the site is not decided.
-

Source: business plans A and B, draft 0.3 (October 2026), cover and section 1; total-investment.md "Two plans". Render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan A preset. Both prices include the 10M to 20M THB ramp-up reserve and carry no contingency.

- - +

Source: business plan B, draft 0.3 (October 2026), cover and section 1; total-investment.md "Two plans". Render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan B preset (business plan B, figure 8). The price includes the 10M to 20M THB ramp-up reserve and carries no contingency.

+ +
@@ -367,9 +388,9 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none} -

Source: business plan A, sections 1, 3.1 to 3.3 and 9.1; revenue-model.md "First market data point" and "Record Industry's calculator"; roadmap.md item 1. THB at 33 per USD.

- - +

Source: business plan B, sections 1, 3.1 to 3.3 and 9.1; revenue-model.md "First market data point" and "Record Industry's calculator"; roadmap.md item 1. THB at 33 per USD.

+ + @@ -395,17 +416,18 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
-
Isometric view of the press hall with the Duplex system, the Classic and reserved bays
-
Press hall, Plan A preset: Duplex system 1 and the Classic; dashed bays are reserved for growth. Schematic (fleet-calculator.html).
+
Isometric view of the press hall with the Duplex system, the Classic, the crane, the visitor corridor and reserved bays
+
Press hall, Plan B preset: Duplex system 1 and the Classic, the 5 t crane, the visitor corridor and the cassette and CD-R rooms; dashed bays reserved for growth. Schematic (fleet-calculator.html).
-

Source: business plan A, sections 1, 4.0 to 4.4 and 4.7; total-investment.md "Launch plant"; scale.md; production-timeline.md; equipment/pressing-line.md.

- - +

Source: business plan B, sections 1, 4.0 to 4.4, 4.7 and 4.9, figure 10; total-investment.md "Launch plant"; scale.md; production-timeline.md; equipment/pressing-line.md.

+ + @@ -436,7 +458,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
Traceability
A record's key is stamper + press + cycle timestamp + side. Logs are append-only; a complaint resolves to one stamper, press, shift and material lot.
One system of record
ERPNext holds orders, gates, job cards, stock, inspections and metal-part genealogy; machine data sits beside it, keyed to the same names.
Layered quality control
Inline optical inspection of every record, press telemetry every cycle, sampled audio comparison against the master; a lab gate for every PVC lot.
-
Metal and climate
XRF thickness per stamper serial from launch; the whole plant at 20 to 26 °C and 35 to 60 % RH, filtered for the burning season.
+
Metrology and climate
Every stamper measured from the first release: XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler. The plant at 20 to 26 °C, 35 to 60 % RH, filtered.
100 %
of records through inline optical inspection
3 gates
artist approvals recorded before work continues
@@ -448,9 +470,9 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
Record passport demo: what a fan sees from the code on the sleeve (IDs simulated, make-a-record.html).
-

Source: process-flow.md; traceability.md; quality-automation.md; digital-factory.md; business plan A, sections 4 and 5.1 to 5.3.

- - +

Source: process-flow.md; traceability.md; quality-automation.md; digital-factory.md; business plan B, sections 1, 4 and 5.1 to 5.3.

+ + @@ -471,9 +493,9 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none} -

Source: artist-platform.md; business plan A, sections 4.8 and 5.1; digital-factory.md "ERPNext: the plant's ERP". Public side ~USD 40k to 90k est., inside the software block.

- - +

Source: artist-platform.md; business plan B, sections 4.8 and 5.1; digital-factory.md "ERPNext: the plant's ERP". Public side ~USD 40k to 90k est., inside the software block.

+ + @@ -482,27 +504,28 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}

A ~1,500 m² plant on leased land, utilities built for four modules

-
Isometric ground floor with the roofs cut away, labelled zones from galvanics to warehouse
-
Ground floor with the roofs cut away, Plan A preset: galvanics, stamper prep, PVC lab, press hall, inspection, packaging and warehouse; the office with the cutting room. Schematic of the calculator's Payap scenario layout on a placeholder plot.
+
Isometric ground floor with the roofs cut away, labelled zones from galvanics to warehouse, the crane, the visitor corridor and the battery
+
Ground floor with the roofs cut away, Plan B preset: galvanics, stamper prep, PVC lab, press hall, inspection, packaging and warehouse; the office with the cutting room; the 5 t crane, the visitor corridor and the 271 kWh battery. Schematic of the calculator's Payap scenario layout on a placeholder plot.
Site
Long lease, working candidate in Lamphun (Mueang Chi), Chiang Mai options under review; Northern Region Industrial Estate as fallback. Nothing signed.
Land
~4 rai minimum, 6 to 8 rai with expansion. Leasing keeps ~12M to 32M THB of land purchase out of the round; rent ~0.3M to 1.0M THB a year est.
-
Building
Steel portal frame, 60 × 25 m (1,500 m²), crane-ready; 30 kN/m² slab raised 1.2 m for dock-height loading; insulated, airtight envelope.
-
Utility yard
~379 m²: boiler hall and chiller compound for four modules each. Launch: two 500 kg/h biomass boilers, two 250 kW chillers.
-
Roof
~520 kWp PV on the factory roof est.; the office roof and the canopies built PV-ready.
+
Building
Steel portal frame, 60 × 25 m (1,500 m²), with its own 5 t crane; 30 kN/m² slab raised 1.2 m for dock-height loading; insulated, airtight.
+
Visitors
A glazed corridor in process order, built from the start: tours and the Payap programmes without stopping production.
+
Utility yard
~379 m²: boiler hall and chiller compound for four modules each. Launch: two 500 kg/h biomass boilers, two 250 kW chillers, Thai-supplied.
+
Roof
~520 kWp PV on the factory roof and a 271 kWh battery, owned est.; office roof and canopies PV-ready.
Growth
Duplex bays and utility positions reserved; a 45 × 38 m (1,710 m²) second building fits the Mueang Chi plot.
-

Source: business plan A, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md; scale.md; render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan A preset. The 60 × 25 m hall is the Mueang Chi design; the layout is fixed once a plot passes zoning and lease-ability.

- - +

Source: business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md; scale.md; crane-workshop-tours.md; render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan B preset (figure 9). The 60 × 25 m hall is the Mueang Chi design; the layout is fixed once a plot passes zoning and lease-ability.

+ +
Sustainability, utilities and the region
-

Biomass steam, factory-roof solar and zero liquid discharge, in Northern Thailand

+

Biomass steam, owned solar and zero liquid discharge, in the North

Steam from biomass

@@ -511,11 +534,11 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}

Heat recovered first: flue-gas economiser, condensate return, a heat pump lifting the presses' ~60 °C cooling return into feedwater.

-

Solar on the factory roof

+

Owned solar on the roof

~520 kWp

~730 to 780 MWh a year, ~87 % used on site: ~633 MWh, ~61 % of the plant's ~1,036 MWh est. Zero export on PEA's grid.

-

Plan A: through a solar PPA, ~1.9M THB a year power price est. Plan B: owned, with the 271 kWh battery.

+

Owned, with the 271 kWh battery: ~2.3M to 2.5M THB a year off the power bill, payback ~4.1 to 5.8 years est.

Water and material

@@ -526,111 +549,149 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}

Northern Thailand

~15 to 25
jobs across shifts at volume est.
-

Skilled roles in galvanics, cutting, QC and IT; Payap University programmes as a training pipeline (under discussion).

+

Skilled roles in galvanics, cutting, QC and IT; Payap University programmes from day one through the visitor corridor (under discussion).

Chiang Mai, Lamphun and Lampang: the Northern Economic Corridor, promoted by BOI as a creative-economy base. Packaging from Chiang Mai.

Biomass brings fuel contracts, a monsoon stock, ash handling, a 14 m stack with a dust collector and a certified boiler attendant; the stack is a visible point source in Chiang Mai's burning season, so dust control is drawn from the start.

-

Source: business plan A, sections 1, 5.4, 8.4 and 12.1; biomass.md; sustainability.md "PV size with biomass steam"; boi.md "Regional angle"; scale.md. Fuel at ~850k records, planning price 1.35 to 2 THB/kg delivered.

-
CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026
- +

Source: business plan B, sections 1, 5.4, 8.4 and 12.1; biomass.md; sustainability.md "PV size with biomass steam" and "PV, not solar thermal"; boi.md "Regional angle"; scale.md. Fuel at ~850k records, planning price 1.35 to 2 THB/kg delivered.

+
CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026
+
-
Investment
-

Plan A ~182M THB, Plan B ~217M THB: the same plant, six levers apart

+
Investment, Plan B
+

Plan B: ~217M THB at the midpoint, the launch plant with everything in

-
Plan APlan BBars: block midpoint, M THB. Lines: low to high end est.
- +
Plan B, block midpointlow to high end of the blockM THB est.
+
-
-
Plan A
~182M THB
167.1M plus the 10M to 20M ramp-up reserve; ~132M to 233M low to high. Labelled ~180M: ~2M above it at the midpoint.
-
Plan B
~217M THB
201.6M plus the same reserve; ~156M to 277M low to high. Labelled ~215M.
+
+
Plan B, the proposal
~217M THB ~6.56M USD
201.6M for the launch plant plus the 10M to 20M ramp-up reserve; ~156M to 277M from the low to the high end of every block. Labelled ~215M.
-

Plan A's six levers, saving at the midpoint

+
Plan A, the lowest-capital variant: the same plant with six cost levers~182M THB
+

What Plan B buys that Plan A leases or defers

- - - - - - - - + + + + + + + +
LeverM THB
1 · Solar and battery through a solar PPA~14.7
2 · Metrology launch tier; confocal, profiler from revenue~8.8
3 · Visitor corridor built later~3.6
4 · Cassette and CD-R duplication later~4.0
5 · Crane rented for the installations~3.2
6 · Compressor through the Chinese route~0.25
Plan B buys all six at launch~34.5
In at launch in Plan BPlan A insteadM THB
Solar ~520 kWp and 271 kWh battery, ownedSolar PPA~14.7
Full metrology: confocal and profiler tooFrom revenue~8.8
Visitor corridor and accessible entranceBuilt later~3.6
Cassette and CD-R duplicationAdded later~4.0
5 t overhead crane, boughtRented~3.2
Compressor from a Thai supplierChinese route~0.25
Together, at the midpoint~34.5
-

No contingency in either price (at 15 %: ~25M THB on A, ~30M on B). Not in the price: the central hydraulic plant, archive shelving, CD replication, financing costs, currency moves, duty and import VAT (BOI assumed).

+

No contingency in the price (at 15 %: ~30M THB). Not in it: the central hydraulic plant, archive shelving, CD replication, financing costs, currency moves, duty and import VAT (BOI assumed).

-

Source: business plans A and B, sections 8.1 and 8.2; total-investment.md "Launch plant" and "Two plans". Block groups and their midpoints are arithmetic on the block ranges. A Chinese biomass boiler quote ~2M THB below the Thai package would bring Plan A to 180M.

-
CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal · Draft for discussion, October 2026
- +

Source: business plan B, sections 8.1 and 8.2; total-investment.md "Launch plant" and "Two plans". Block groups and their midpoints are arithmetic on the block ranges. Plan A: ~182M THB at the midpoint, ~132M to 233M low to high.

+
CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026
+
+
+
Why Plan B
+

Ownership and control, not a higher modelled return

+

Both plans build the same three presses and make the same records, so demand does not decide between them. The choice is ~35M THB more at launch for what Plan A leases or buys later, and fewer moving parts to finance once the plant runs.

+
+
+
~14.7M THB
No power contract on the roof
The ~520 kWp array and the 271 kWh battery are owned: no 15 to 25 year PPA and no ~1.9M THB a year PPA bill; the array pays back in ~4.1 to 5.8 years est.
+
~8.8M THB
Traceability from the first release
The laser confocal and the wide-area profiler at launch, not from revenue: every stamper fully measured, the core of the pitch to labels.
+
~3.6M THB
Tours and Payap from day one
A glazed corridor in process order for artists, labels, investors and schools, and the student programmes; cheaper to build in than to add.
+
~4.0M THB
Cassette and CD-R sales
Both formats sold from launch next to vinyl. Their revenue is not in the operating model.
+
~3.2M THB
Its own crane
A 5 t crane over the production compartment: machines moved in, out and around without hiring a mobile crane.
+
~0.25M THB
Local service
The compressor from a Thai supplier, like the rest of the utilities, instead of the Chinese route.
+
+
+

What the model says, Plan B against Plan A

+ + + + + + + + + +
Midpoints, estimatesPlan BPlan A
Plan price, reserve in~217M THB~182M THB
EBITDA, central, revenue model1.73M USD1.73M USD
EBITDA, calculator: no PPA bill in B2.23M USD2.17M USD
Depreciation, central0.49M USD0.40M USD
Operating profit, central / adverse1.24M / -0.55M1.33M / -0.41M
Payback on the plan price, central~3.8 yr~3.2 yr
Cash payback and IRR, calculatoryr ~4.2, ~22 %yr ~3.8, ~26 %
+

Read plainly: Plan A has the better modelled return, Plan B the more complete plant. Most of B's items could be added to A later from revenue; the corridor is cheaper from the start, and every year the array is leased costs the PPA bill. Owning the array earns no BOI tax benefit: solar was dropped on 1 July 2025, only the battery may qualify.

+
+
+

Source: total-investment.md "Two plans" ("What decides between them"); revenue-model.md "Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B"; business plan B, sections 1, 8.2, 8.4 and 9.4; fleet-calculator.html, presets planA and planB; sustainability.md "Leasing instead (Plan A)" (PPA terms 15 to 25 years) and "PV, not solar thermal"; boi.md.

+ + +
+ +
-
Operating picture, mature year
-

The central case works; the adverse case loses money

+
Operating picture, Plan B, mature year
+

Plan B's central case works; the adverse case loses money

-
RevenueEBITDA, both plansOperating profit AOperating profit B
- +
RevenueEBITDAOperating profit, after Plan B's depreciationM USD a year
+
- + - - - - + + +
USD a yearAdverseCentralFavourable
USD a year, Plan BAdverseCentralFavourable
Records0.58M0.74M0.90M
Price per record3.764.495.27
Direct cost per record2.702.001.35
Revenue2.28M3.65M5.41M
Revenue, THB~75M~120M~179M
EBITDA0.23M1.73M3.79M
Operating profit A-0.41M1.33M3.54M
Operating profit B-0.55M1.24M3.50M
Payback A, plan price~31 yr~3.2 yr~1.1 yr
Payback B, plan price~37 yr~3.8 yr~1.2 yr
Depreciation0.78M0.49M0.29M
Operating profit-0.55M1.24M3.50M
Payback, plan price~37 yr~3.8 yr~1.2 yr

Read the adverse column as the honest one. A central EBITDA margin of ~47 % is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn: the direct cost leaves out indirect labour, freight, scrap above the reject allowance, sales commissions and the extra cost of specials.

+
+
~0.24M
records a year: break-even on operating profit
+
~1.1M
records the adverse case needs to cover depreciation; the presses make 0.58M
+
~2.8 USD
(~92 THB) a record covers depreciation at central cost and volume
+
-

Source: revenue-model.md "Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)"; business plans A and B, section 9.4. Estimates, mature year at 60 % specials; payback is EBITDA on the plan price including the reserve. Break-even on operating profit ~0.2M records (A), ~0.24M (B); the adverse case needs ~1.0M (A) or ~1.1M (B) records to cover depreciation.

- - -
- - -
-
Cash and returns
-

Ten years of cash: back to zero in year ~3.8 (Plan A) and ~4.2 (Plan B)

-
-
-
Plan A, cumulative cashPlan B, cumulative cashM USD, year 0 to 10
- -
-
- - - - - - - - -
Calculator presetsPlan APlan B
Cash paybackyear ~3.8year ~4.2
IRR, ten years~26 %~22 %
NPV at 10 %~5.4M USD~4.7M USD
Year 0: investment and reserve5.52M USD6.56M USD
Mature-year EBITDA2.17M USD2.23M USD
Simple payback: plan price before the reserve / mature EBITDA2.3 yr2.7 yr
-

Basis: 850k records at 60 % specials at the team's planning rate (3 records a minute per Duplex system), the calculator's own cost build-up with biomass fuel, the cutting engineer and, in Plan A, the PPA power price. Ramp 35, 70 and 90 % in years 1 to 3. Pre-tax, pre-financing, no BOI tax holiday, no terminal value: a sketch, not a forecast.

-

In the revenue model's adverse case, EBITDA pays the plan price back in ~31 years (A) and ~37 years (B). A year-by-year cash model for the ramp is a phase 0 output.

-
-
-

Source: business plans A and B, section 9.4 and figure 12; fleet-calculator.html, presets planA and planB, cash view (values read from the page, October 2026); revenue-model.md. Estimates.

- - +

Source: revenue-model.md "Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)"; business plan B, section 9.4. Estimates, mature year at 60 % specials; depreciation on Plan B's blocks; payback is EBITDA on the plan price including the reserve. Plan A for comparison: operating profit -0.41 / 1.33 / 3.54M USD.

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+
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Cash and returns, Plan B
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Ten years of cash: Plan B back to zero in year ~4.2, IRR ~22 %

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Plan B, cumulative cashPlan A, for comparisonM USD, year 0 to 10
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Calculator presetsPlan BPlan A
Cash paybackyear ~4.2year ~3.8
IRR, ten years~22 %~26 %
NPV at 10 %~4.7M USD~5.4M USD
Year 0: investment and reserve6.56M USD5.52M USD
Mature-year EBITDA2.23M USD2.17M USD
Simple payback: plan price before the reserve / mature EBITDA2.7 yr2.3 yr
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Basis: 850k records at 60 % specials at the team's planning rate (3 records a minute per Duplex system), the calculator's own cost build-up with biomass fuel and the cutting engineer; Plan B pays no PPA power price. Ramp 35, 70 and 90 % in years 1 to 3. Pre-tax, pre-financing, no BOI tax holiday, no terminal value: a sketch, not a forecast.

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In the revenue model's adverse case, EBITDA pays Plan B's price back in ~37 years. A year-by-year cash model for the ramp is a phase 0 output.

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Source: business plan B, section 9.4 and figure 12; fleet-calculator.html, presets planB and planA, cash view (values read from the page, October 2026); revenue-model.md. Estimates.

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BOI promotion and financing

Duty-free machinery under BOI, debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1

@@ -639,36 +700,36 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
Category
Basic plastic consumer-goods manufacturing (Category 6), incentive Group B: no tax holiday on the core activity. Sub-code to confirm with a BOI-registered consultant.
To confirm
Privileges
Machinery import duty exemption, with import VAT; 100 % foreign ownership; visas and work permits through the One Stop Service; raw-material duty relief for export production.
Group B core
Upgrades
Smart and Sustainable Industry (15/2565, refreshed July 2025): typically 3 years of CIT exemption, capped around 50 % of the upgrade spend; R&D merit at 1 % of revenue adds 1 to 3 years.
To structure
-
Solar
No longer promoted since 1 July 2025 (Announcement 3/2568). Only battery storage may still qualify, capped at 12M THB per MW.
Solar dropped
+
Solar
No longer promoted since 1 July 2025 (Announcement 3/2568): Plan B's owned array earns the bill saving, no tax benefit. The 271 kWh battery may still qualify, capped at 12M THB per MW.
Solar dropped
Conditions
Debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1 for the life of the privileges; minimum 1M THB excluding land and working capital; modern machinery; progress and annual reports; machinery imported within ~30 months, full operation by ~36 months.
Binding
Process
e-Investment filing and analyst meeting; ~40 working days to a decision under 200M THB, 60 to 90 above; 4 to 6 months in practice. No machinery order before the certificate.
Phase 0
-

Funding need, reserve in, no contingency

+

Funding need, Plan B: reserve in, no contingency

-
~182M THB
Plan A, ~5.52M USD. Equity at 3:1: at least a quarter, ~46M THB
-
~217M THB
Plan B, ~6.56M USD. Equity at 3:1: at least a quarter, ~54M THB
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~217M THB
~6.56M USD at the midpoint, labelled ~215M; ~156M to 277M low to high
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~54M THB
equity at least: a quarter of the funding at the 3:1 ceiling (arithmetic)
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Collateral
The machinery and equipment. The building only if the lease grants its ownership and the right to mortgage it, a lease condition. No land collateral: the site is a long lease of raw land.
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Collateral
The machinery and equipment, in Plan B including the owned PV array and battery. The building only if the lease grants its ownership and the right to mortgage it. No land collateral: the site is a long lease of raw land.
Equity
The lead investor; Ploy Printing as intended strategic co-investor (terms not yet discussed); the founders.
-
Use of funds
Plan A at the midpoint: equipment (presses, metal path, metrology, lab) ~76M THB, utilities ~35M, building and site ~33M, software, freight, working capital and phase 0 ~23M (block midpoints est.), plus the reserve; released in tranches (slide 15).
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Use of funds
Equipment (presses, metal path, metrology, lab) ~85M THB; building, crane, workshop and corridor ~40M; utilities ~35M; solar and battery ~15M; software, cassette and CD-R, freight, working capital and phase 0 ~28M (block midpoints est.), plus the reserve, in tranches (slide 16).
Without BOI
~5 % duty on ~2.3M USD of imported machinery (~0.11M USD) and ~0.17M USD of import VAT up front est.

Financing structure to be agreed. No loan terms, interest rate or debt-service figures are on file.

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Source: boi.md; business plan A, sections 6.1, 7.1, 8.4 and 12.2; business plan B, section 1 ("The ask"); total-investment.md "Launch plant". Equity floors and use-of-funds groups are arithmetic on the plan's figures, before financing costs.

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Source: boi.md; business plan B, sections 1 ("The ask"), 6.1, 7.1, 8.1, 8.4 and 12.2; total-investment.md "Launch plant". Equity floor and use-of-funds groups are arithmetic on the plan's figures, before financing costs.

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Schedule

First paying release: Q4 2028 to mid-2029, and still open

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Commissioning sequence

@@ -677,6 +738,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
  • Newbilt Duplex system, with boilers B-1 and B-2 and chillers CH-1 and CH-2.
  • Newbilt Classic, once the metal path and the press process are stable.
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    Alongside: cassette and CD-R lines. In the build: owned PV and battery, 5 t crane, visitor corridor.

    Long-lead orders, after the certificate

    @@ -688,12 +750,12 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
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    Source: project-timeline.md, calendar anchored August 2026 (nothing in phase 0 has started, so it shifts day for day; not yet redrawn for the launch plant); business plan A, sections 10 and 11.1; roadmap.md phases 0 to 4.

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    Source: project-timeline.md, calendar anchored August 2026 (nothing in phase 0 has started, so it shifts day for day; not yet redrawn for the launch plant); business plan B, sections 10, 11 and 11.1; roadmap.md phases 0 to 4.

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    - +
    Risks and mitigations

    The risks we carry, and what retires each one

    @@ -702,22 +764,23 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none} SeverityRiskMitigation and status HighPricing power is unproven: market validation (roadmap item 1) is open, with no buyer prices yetValidation gate with regional labels; the platform's calculator as an interest list; no large spending before it clears HighUtilisation and price: the adverse case loses money; the extra cost of specials is not yet in the direct costTreat the adverse column as the honest one; specials gain an upper bound until compound quotes; second Duplex waits for demand - HighNo contingency in the price: at 15 %, ~25M THB on A and ~30M on BQuotes before commitment; release in tranches; how overruns are funded agreed up front + HighNo contingency in Plan B's price: at 15 % ~30M THB; the high end of every block ~277M with the reserveQuotes before commitment; release in tranches; how overruns are funded agreed up front HighGalvanics and cutting on the critical path, galvanics the hardest skill to hire. Sibert advised getting presses, boilers, operators and feedback loops right firstAdvice carried as a risk: commission the metal path first and measure it; hire early, train at the vendors; Stamper Discs and SST as overflow contacts HighPrices not on file: the Newbilt Classic (placeholder band) and the Pheenix line (OMS reference + 20 %, no Pheenix quote)Newbilt re-quote and Pheenix quote in phase 0; OMS's offer as the galvanics benchmark HighVendor build times unknown: the press build carries ~40 % of the scheduleBuild time and order-book position required in every re-quote HighZoning unverified: the Payap point failed, Mueang Chi is uncheckedVerify on the land-use map and with counsel before the BOI filing; industrial estate as fallback + MediumPlan B's ~35M THB more than Plan A earns little in the model: payback ~3.8 against ~3.2 years, a deeper adverse casePhase 0 prices each item against its lever (PPA offer beside the purchase quote); the corridor is cheaper from the start MediumLease terms and building ownership: a weak lease makes the building hard to financeRegistered 30 to 50 year lease with renewal, building ownership and assignment rights; Thai counsel in phase 0 MediumGalvanics effluent and biomass emissions in the first factory licenceZero-discharge design and treatment building from the start; dust collector and 14 m stack drawn; fuel contracts MediumCurrency: EUR on Newbilt and Pheenix, USD on Sibert and Sillitoe, costs in THBCurrency and validity in every quote; THB pricing regionally; hedging decided with the investor -

    Source: business plan A, sections 11.2 and 13 (severities as the plan states them); revenue-model.md "Honest caveats"; roadmap.md item 1; site-candidates.md.

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    Source: business plan B, sections 11.2 and 13 (severities as the plan states them); revenue-model.md "Honest caveats"; roadmap.md item 1; site-candidates.md.

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    Team, partners and vendors

    A small founding team, specialist vendors and a local packaging partner

    @@ -727,7 +790,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
    Simona Meesaiyati
    Project Lead
    Management and the audio side.
    Alexander Grabowski
    Technical Consultant
    The technical side: equipment and vendors, utilities, the building model, the traceability and QC specification, the factory software.
    buildfor.life
    Consulting
    Supports the project in a consulting capacity.
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    To hire at launch: a galvanics process engineer and a cutting engineer (critical path), a plant manager, two shifts of operators, QC, maintenance, sales. About 20 people at the start est.
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    To hire at launch: a galvanics process engineer and a cutting engineer (critical path), a plant manager, two shifts of operators, QC, maintenance, sales. About 20 people at the start est., plus 1 to 2 for the cassette and CD-R lines.

    Partners

    @@ -748,29 +811,29 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}

    Making Vinyl Europe, Haarlem, 30 September to 2 October 2026: strong interest in full traceability; Pheenix offered references and a factory visit, OMS sent galvanics reference prices, SST Frankfurt offered help. Supplier-side evidence.

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    Source: README "Team"; business plan A, sections 1, 12.1 and 12.2; equipment/pressing-line.md; equipment/galvanics.md; suppliers/vendor-landscape.md.

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    Source: README "Team"; business plan B, sections 1, 12.1 and 12.2; equipment/pressing-line.md; equipment/galvanics.md; suppliers/vendor-landscape.md.

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    The ask and next steps
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    Approve phase 0 now; commit in tranches once the gates clear

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    Approve phase 0 now; commit to Plan B in tranches once the gates clear

    Now: phase 0

    1.3M to 2.6M THB

    ~USD 40k to 80k over 3 to 6 months, part of the plan price

    -

    BOI consultant, Thai counsel for the lease and zoning, a soil boring test, and the quotes that settle most of the investment band. Then, on the gates clearing, a commitment in principle to one plan, released in tranches.

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    BOI consultant, Thai counsel for the lease and zoning, a soil boring test, and the quotes that settle most of the band. Then, on the gates clearing, a commitment in principle to Plan B at ~215M THB (~217M at the midpoint), released in tranches.

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    Tranches, share of the investment before the reserve est.

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    Plan B tranches, share of the investment before the reserve est.

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    #TriggerCoversShareA, M THBB, M THB
    0NowPhase 0 work1 to 2 %1.3 to 2.61.3 to 2.6
    1BOI certificate, lease, zoning, soil, pricing validatedDeposits on every long-lead order20 to 30 %~33 to 50~40 to 60
    2Building permit; build dates in writingConstruction, utilities, balance payments35 to 45 %~58 to 75~71 to 91
    3Building watertight; first machinery shippedFit-out, clean zones, ZLD, metrology, software15 to 20 %~25 to 33~30 to 40
    4Metal path commissioned; first stampersWorking capital; the reserve from here on8 to 12 %~13 to 20~16 to 24
    #TriggerCoversShareM THB
    0NowPhase 0 work1 to 2 %1.3 to 2.6
    1BOI certificate, lease, zoning, soil, pricing validatedDeposits on every long-lead order20 to 30 %~40 to 60
    2Building permit; build dates in writingConstruction, utility yard, utilities, balance payments35 to 45 %~71 to 91
    3Building watertight; first machinery shippedFit-out, ZLD, owned PV and battery, crane, corridor, full metrology, software, cassette and CD-R15 to 20 %~30 to 40
    4Metal path commissioned; first stampersWorking capital; the reserve from here on8 to 12 %~16 to 24
    @@ -780,32 +843,32 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
  • Pheenix galvanics quote, against OMS's reference
  • Sillitoe quote and build time; Sibert's itemised quotation
  • Building RFQ to two or three Thai contractors, with the soil test
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  • Metrology quotes; solar PPA offers next to a purchase quote
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  • Metrology quotes; solar and battery purchase quotes, a PPA offer beside them
  • Biomass boilers from Getabec and Chinese makers; fuel offers

    • Decisions for the investor

      -
    • Plan A or Plan B; the equity and debt mix within 3:1
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    • The equity and debt mix within 3:1 (equity at least ~54M THB)
    • How quotes landing above the plan price are funded
      • -
    • CD replication, yes or no, before the BOI filing; hedging of the EUR orders
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    • Each Plan B item weighed against its lever; CD replication before the BOI filing; hedging of the EUR orders
    Phase 0 unlocks
    The BOI filing, the lease heads of terms and the zoning answer, and quotes in place of the estimated blocks: the next version of the plan.
    -
    The round unlocks
    Every long-lead order and the build, commissioned in sequence: metal path, Duplex, Classic. First paying release Q4 2028 to mid-2029, open.
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    Revenue then funds
    The second Duplex system (~15.4M THB at the midpoint est.), metrology, corridor, cassette and CD-R where Plan A defers them.
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    The round unlocks
    Every long-lead order and the build, commissioned in sequence: metal path, Duplex, Classic, with the owned PV, crane and corridor in place. First paying release Q4 2028 to mid-2029, open.
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    Revenue then funds
    The second Duplex system (~15.4M THB at the midpoint est.), PV on the PV-ready office roof and canopies (~120 kWp, ~2.4M to 3.1M THB est.), the phase 2 building.
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    Source: business plans A and B, sections 8.3, 14.1 and 14.2; roadmap.md phases 0 to 2. Gates before any order: market validation, the BOI certificate, and land (zoning, lease terms, soil).

    - - +

    Source: business plan B, sections 8.3, 14.1 and 14.2; roadmap.md phases 0 to 2. Tranche amounts are the shares applied to Plan B's ~201.6M THB before the reserve (arithmetic). Gates before any order: market validation, the BOI certificate, and land (zoning, lease terms, soil).

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