grabowski
c50417668b
The current plan (user decision, October 2026) replaces the 50/50 target (two semi-automatic presses and two Pheenix AD12s) with an all-Newbilt fleet of five presses: two Duplex systems in Newbilt's two-extruder configuration (two HRP 12 presses, an extruder each, one hydraulic unit) and one Classic fully automatic press. - pressing-line.md: new "Current plan" section (fleet table, what it means, phasing from the Single 2.1 as the first half of system 1, re-quote questions); site requirements per Duplex system. - scale.md: capacity table and basis (368 to 448 records/h, ~1.06 to 1.5M a year on two shifts, same range as before); pressing electrical row; steam and cooling flagged, not re-based: five presses draw ~750 to 900 kg/h of steam and up to ~625 kW of cooling at Newbilt's per-press figures, against the 400 kg/h / 250 kW sized for one Duplex. - total-investment.md: fleet change as an added-scope row (system 2 ~230k-300k and the Classic ~290k-460k, estimates; -60k / -160k against the two blocks it replaces); headline unchanged until the re-base. - roadmap items 4, 5 and 24, revenue model mature row, crane doc (the Classic's weight now decides 5 t or 3.2 t), vendor landscape (AD12 is the comparison for the Classic), README. The business plan docx is not regenerated.
96 lines
7.7 KiB
Markdown
96 lines
7.7 KiB
Markdown
# Total Investment: Rough Picture
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Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked
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"estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the
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researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide
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margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.
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**Currency: USD and THB.** FX at 5 August 2026: **1 USD = 33 THB**.
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Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency
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wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at
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**1 EUR = 1.155 USD** and **1 GBP = 1.35 USD**. Original figures compiled
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July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at
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~38 is where it was when they were made.
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## Full vision, all blocks
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| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote. The fleet has since changed, see the added-scope table |
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| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning. Replaced by the Newbilt Classic in the current fleet, see the added-scope table |
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| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, [galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)) is unpriced too; OMS's reference prices (letter, 9 October 2026) put a complete 4-cell wet room at EUR 224k basic to 311k advanced (~USD 259k to 359k; ~270k to 371k with know-how transfer), installation and water treatment extra: at or below this block's low end, kept until quotes exist |
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| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row |
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| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate kept until the re-base; Sibert has since confirmed USD 250k for the three (its time, spares, shipping and travel extra), the difference is in the table below |
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| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 290k – 580k | 9.6M – 19.1M | estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist |
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| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.5M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable |
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| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 730k – 1,270k | 24.0M – 41.6M | reviewed [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv), THB-native |
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| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.2M | estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
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| Land 6–8 rai, if purchased | 360k – 970k | 12.0M – 32.0M | estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
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| Traceability and factory software | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate |
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| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
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| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
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| Subtotal | ~4.1M – 7.7M | ~135M – 254M | |
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| Contingency 15% | ~0.6M – 1.2M | ~20M – 38M | |
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| **Total, full vision** | **~4.7M – 8.9M USD** | **~155M – 294M THB** | |
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### Added scope, not yet in the roll-up
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Decided, or re-priced by a vendor, after the roll-up above was compiled;
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carried here until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the
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building, software and stamper prep lines, and the contingency on top).
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| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
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| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
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| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
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| Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments) | 40k – 90k | 1.3M – 3.0M | estimate, [artist platform](../artist-platform.md) |
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| PVC material lab, day-one tier (incl. plaque press and sample conditioning) | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md); not costed in the metrology block above. The mature tier (torque rheometer, DSC, FTIR, ~120k – 240k) is deferred, with partner labs in between |
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| Stamper prep re-priced: USD 250k for VSP, VSF and VSC against the 60k – 170k block above | +190k (low case) / +80k (high case) | +6.3M / +2.6M | Sibert's budget confirmation, email of 5 October 2026 ([galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)); itemised quotation to follow. Its time, spare parts, shipping and travel are extra and fall into the freight/installation and spares blocks above |
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| Press fleet changed (October 2026) to two Newbilt Duplex systems with an extruder per press plus one Newbilt Classic, replacing the two blocks above (930k – 1,290k): Duplex system 1 as the first block (350k – 370k), system 2 ~230k – 300k (two press and extruder sets at the quoted ~115k each, plus its hydraulic unit, estimate), the Classic ~290k – 460k (the AD12 band per press as a placeholder; no Newbilt price on file) | −60k (low case) / −160k (high case) | −2.0M / −5.3M | estimate, [pressing line](../equipment/pressing-line.md); the Newbilt re-quote replaces it. The utilities for five presses are not re-sized yet ([scale](../scale.md)) |
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| **Added so far** | **~420k – 610k** | **~13.8M – 20.2M** | about 8 to 10% on the full-vision subtotal |
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## Phased entry
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A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly **1.7M to 2.9M USD
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(~57M to 95M THB)**:
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- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
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- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
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- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full
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metrology deferred; the PVC lab's day-one tier is the added-scope row
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above
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- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
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- Galvanics, the second Duplex system and the Classic, full metrology,
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and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round
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expansions
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The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the
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bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass
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steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for
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exactly this reason.
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## What moves the number
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- **BOI**: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment
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blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption
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headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see
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[boi.md](../boi.md))
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- **Buy vs lease** on land and building swings roughly **1.0M to 2.1M
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USD (~34M to 69M THB)** of upfront capital, and also moves the launch
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date by about three quarters — see
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[project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)
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- **Biggest uncertainty bands**: metrology (partly a choice of ambition),
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the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the
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Newbilt Classic (no price on file), and land
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- **Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here.** Revenue is
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mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and
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the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged
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against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see
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[project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)). A 10% move in EUR/THB
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between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line
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alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
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- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in
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[equipment-suppliers.md](../suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md) lists who
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to ask
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