cnx_vinyl/docs/scale.md

# Project Scale: Rough Numbers

One-page sizing of the whole project. Everything here is a planning
estimate derived from the session's vendor data and standard ratios;
figures marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation yet. Update this
page as real quotes and the site decision land.

## Production capacity

| Phase | Fleet | Rough output |
|---|---|---|
| Launch | 1 semi-auto press (Newbilt Single), 1 shift | ~90,000 to 135,000 records/yr |
| Duplex | 2 semi-auto presses, 1 to 2 shifts | ~175,000 to 540,000 records/yr |
| Mature | 2 semi-auto + 2 automated (50/50 fleet), 2 shifts | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr |

Basis: the automated AD12 presses ~140 records/hour each (vendor datasheet);
semi-automatic throughput is unpublished, assumed 60 to 80 records/hour per
press with operator handling (estimate); 16 h/day, 300 days/yr, with
realistic overall effectiveness of 60 to 70% applied. The theoretical
ceiling of the mature fleet at 100% uptime is roughly 1.9 to 2.1 million
records per year.

**The 60–70% effectiveness assumption is worth challenging, but not yet
changing.** Newbilt publishes ≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime for the Classic
12" automatic at a 28 s cycle (~128 records/h), and quotes ~30 s average
for the Duplex. Three reasons not to adjust anything on that basis:

- **Machine uptime is not plant OEE.** A vendor uptime figure excludes
  stamper and mould changes, label reels, colour changeovers, PVC lot
  changes, first-article QC and breaks — precisely the losses that
  dominate a short-run boutique plant. They are different quantities.
- It would apply only to the **automated half** of the fleet. The
  60–80/h semi-auto figure already embeds operator handling, so applying
  an uplift to that half would double-count.
- 0.95 × 0.95 is 0.90 before any performance factor; reaching 80% OEE
  needs a performance factor near 0.89, which nobody has estimated.

Ask both press vendors for the **basis** of their uptime and yield
figures — measured over what period, at what run length, counting which
stoppages — as part of the re-quote. It is a free question. If the
figures survive scrutiny they would argue for a higher OEE on the
automated fleet only, and the same logic would apply to any competitor
running the same machine.

## Building

| Zone | Rough area |
|---|---|
| Semi-auto press hall (Newbilt Duplex spec) | ~200 m² |
| Automated press zone | ~100 to 150 m² |
| Galvanics clean room + water treatment + chemical storage | ~80 to 150 m² |
| Mastering and cutting room | ~40 to 60 m² |
| Stamper prep | ~30 m² |
| Packaging + finished goods warehouse | ~300 to 500 m² |
| Utility rooms (boiler, compressor, chiller, electrical) | ~100 to 150 m² |
| Offices, QC/listening, archive, IT, entrance | ~150 to 200 m² |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay (crane-served) | ~100 to 150 m² |
| Visitor corridor (glazed, ground level) | ~110 to 130 m² |
| Circulation, walls, misc | ~150 to 250 m² |
| **Total under roof** | **~1,400 to 2,000 m²** |

The HVAC budget in the utilities CSV already assumes ~1,500 m² conditioned.
Single story throughout: all heavy equipment needs ground-slab floor
loading (multiple tons per m²).

The workshop and the visitor corridor were added in October 2026, together
with an overhead crane over the production compartment; what they need and
what they change in the shell is in
[crane, workshop and tours](crane-workshop-tours.md). They add ~210 to
280 m² to a program that already filled the 60 × 25 m footprint, which
settles the open question below in favour of growing the program into the
floor the utility yard frees: at the lower half of the table everything
fits; at the upper half, finished goods move to the phase 2 building.

### Detached utility yard, parking, and what that moves

The massing model puts the boiler and chiller in a **detached utility yard**
alongside the main building rather than inside it, which is what the boiler's
own-room requirement in [facility security](facility-security.md) and biomass
fuel delivery both push toward:

| | Area | Height |
|---|---|---|
| Boiler hall | 66 m² | 6.0 m |
| Biomass fuel store | 42 m² | 5.0 m |
| Chiller room | 60 m² | 5.0 m |
| Cooling tower (outdoor pad) | 10 m² | 3.5 m |
| Flue stack | - | 14 m |

Boiler plus chiller at 126 m² lands inside the 100 to 150 m² the zone table
allows, but moving them out of the main shed frees that floor for
production, so either the main building shrinks by ~126 m² or the program
grows into it. Decide which before the building is priced.

Staff parking is roofed, in the front yard clear of the loading route:
**10 car bays** (27.7 × 7.0 m canopy, 195 m²) and **~30 scooter spaces**
(13.7 × 5.5 m, 76 m²), carrying a further **~40 kWp** of PV on their
canopies — dimensions per the modelled layout in the
[construction RFQ](finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md). At 4.1 m and 3.5 m
they sit below the main building's 7.0 m low eave, so they cannot shade it.

### Expansion headroom: a second building

Tested against the candidate Mueang Chi parcel, in the massing model at
`factory_building_rough.FCStd`. The whole zone table above fits inside one
60 × 25 m building, so a second one is expansion **beyond** the current
program — doubling pressing capacity, or moving finished goods out to free
production floor — not a gap in it.

| | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Footprint | 60 × 25 m — 1,500 m² | 45 × 38 m — 1,710 m² | 3,210 m² |
| Roof PV | ~247 kWp | ~251 kWp | **~498 kWp** |
| Tightest boundary clearance | 15.7 m | 3.0 m | |

- **45 × 38 m is the sweet spot.** The plot narrows going south, so past
  ~45 m of length the width falls away faster than length adds: 40 m gives
  1,607 m², 45 m gives 1,723 m², 50 m drops to 1,558 m², and beyond 65 m
  nothing useful fits.
- **A 20 m yard** between the buildings covers fire separation and shared
  loading off the phase 1 circulation road.
- **Roof form: two-bay sawtooth, shaded rows deliberately left empty.**
  A single 38 m monopitch would be the best solar answer — 28 panel rows,
  none shaded, ~17% more yield than what is drawn, but it needs a **13.7 m**
  high wall. The sawtooth holds the high side to **10.35 m**, at a cost: each
  bay falls toward ESE onto the next bay's 3.35 m riser, so the bottom rows
  sit in shadow (the lowest is blocked below a 53° sun profile angle). Those
  two rows on the first bay are left empty rather than populated, which
  trades ~8% of the roof's yield for clean strings, no mismatch losses, and
  a maintenance walkway. Building height won this trade; revisit it if
  cladding a 13.7 m wall turns out cheaper than the lost generation.
  A 7° single pitch (11.7 m high side) sits between the two if wanted.
- **Coverage stays comfortable**: 3,210 m² is 39% of the deed area (34% of
  the mapped extent), well under the 50 to 60% typically allowed.
- **The two roofs together clear 500 kWp**, which removes the need for the
  ground-mount solar assumed further down this page.

Two caveats. Phase 2's tightest corner sits **3.0 m** from the boundary and
must be checked against the local ผังเมือง setback rule before it is taken as
real. And the plot's zoning for factory use is still unverified — that gates
phase 1 every bit as much as phase 2.

## Land: factory plot

Industrial plots typically allow 50 to 60% building coverage, and the site
needs truck access and turning, parking, the outdoor cooling tower, the
separated BESS enclosure, possible ground-mount solar, and expansion room.

- Minimum workable: **~4 rai** (6,400 m²)
- Comfortable with expansion and ground-mount solar: **~6 to 8 rai**
  (9,600 to 12,800 m²)

Separate asset: the **60 rai** forestry-classified parcel for coppice
fuelwood (see [biomass](biomass.md)), pending its title check. It is a fuel
plantation, not a factory site candidate unless the classification allows
conversion, which forestry land generally does not.

## Electrical scale

| Load | Rough figure |
|---|---|
| Pressing machinery (semi-auto line + 2 automated presses) | ~70 to 80 kW installed |
| Process chiller (250 kW cooling) | ~80 to 125 kW electrical |
| Whole-factory HVAC | ~100 to 200 kW peak (estimate) |
| Electric steam boiler (if chosen over biomass/LPG) | ~300 kW |
| Compressed air, lighting, IT, misc | ~30 to 50 kW |
| **Plant peak demand** | **~300 to 450 kW without electric boiler; ~600 to 750 kW with it** |

Grid connection: a medium-voltage connection with a transformer in the
**500 to 1,000 kVA** class from PEA, sized by the boiler decision.

Galvanics (Phase 5) is not in the table yet. By the Pheenix Alpha and
Sibert datasheets, one electroforming line plus the stamper prep machines
is ~30 kVA connected, two three-phase plating units and the rest
single-phase (see [galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)):
small against the connection, but its own feeder and meter.

## Solar and storage

- The phase 1 roof carries **~247 kWp** (425 modules on the 1,523 m²
  roof plane, per the [construction RFQ](finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md)).
  This supersedes the older rule of thumb of 150 to 200 kWp on a
  ~1,500 m² building, which the massing model has overtaken
- Northern Thailand yield ~1,400 to 1,500 kWh/kWp/yr, so 300 kWp produces
  roughly **420 to 450 MWh/yr**
- Plant consumption at mature two-shift operation: roughly **1,000 to
  1,500 MWh/yr** without electric steam, up to **~2,500 MWh/yr** with it
  (estimate), so 300 kWp covers roughly **28 to 45%** of consumption
  without electric steam, falling to **~17%** with it; a bigger array
  shifts that up
- Battery: **271 kWh** Gobel stack (peak shaving and ride-through, roughly
  two to three hours of the chiller's electrical draw)

## Steam and fuel

- Boiler: **400 kg/h at 10 bar / 180 °C** (~300 kW thermal)
- If biomass: **~350 to 400 t/yr** air-dry wood at mature operation, of
  which the 60 rai coppice could supply **~80 to 135 t/yr**
- If LPG: **~2.5 to 5 t** bulk tank on site (no gas pipeline in the North)

## People

Rough mature-operation headcount (estimate): 4 to 6 press/finishing
operators per shift, 2 to 3 galvanics, 1 to 2 mastering/cutting engineers,
1 to 2 QC, 2 maintenance, 3 to 5 admin/sales/logistics. Roughly **15 to 25
people** across shifts at maturity, fewer than half that at launch.

## Money (cross-references)

Figures in USD and THB at 1 USD = 33 THB (5 August 2026); vendor quotes
keep their original currency alongside.

- Newbilt semi-auto line: **~USD 232k (~7.7M THB)**, from the June 2024
  quote of EUR 200,500 — expired, in
  [pressing-line](equipment/pressing-line.md)
- Thai-sourced utilities, HVAC, racking, solar, BESS baseline: **~24M to
  42M THB (~USD 730k to 1.27M)**, detail in the
  [utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv)
- Not yet priced: automated presses (indicative ~USD 340k each, unverified),
  galvanics line, mastering/cutting room, metrology, building
  construction/fit-out, land