cnx_vinyl/docs/finance/total-investment.md

# Total Investment: Rough Picture

Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked
"estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the
researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide
margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.

**Currency: USD and THB.** FX at 5 August 2026: **1 USD = 33 THB**.
Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency
wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at
**1 EUR = 1.155 USD** and **1 GBP = 1.35 USD**. Original figures compiled
July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at
~38 is where it was when they were made.

## Launch plant (October 2026)

Decided (user, October 2026): the plant launches **with everything in one
capital round**, commissioned in sequence, with no bridge stampers and no
outsourced cutting:

- one **Newbilt Duplex** system: two HRP 12 semi-automatic presses, an
  EX 50 main and an EX 35 colour extruder
  ([pressing line](../equipment/pressing-line.md));
- one **Newbilt Classic** fully automatic press;
- one **Pheenix Alpha** galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, one PDPU, PMPB) with
  zero-discharge water treatment
  ([galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md));
- the **Sibert** stamper-prep line (VSF, VSP, VSC);
- a **Sillitoe SDMS** cutting room
  ([vendor landscape](../suppliers/vendor-landscape.md#mastering-and-cutting-sillitoe-audio-technology-australia));
- the **modular steam and cooling plant**: two 500 kg/h boiler modules and
  two 250 kW chiller modules, in a boiler hall and a chiller compound
  built for four each ([scale](../scale.md#utility-phasing-backbone-once-modules-with-the-presses)).

Cassette and CD-R duplication stay in. The second Duplex system and the
further Classics are growth options with room reserved, not in this
investment. Three presses make roughly 0.7 to 0.95 million records a year
on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
0.97 million, the planning rates of the
[fleet calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) ~0.94 million).

| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 0: BOI consultant, legal and lease work, soil test, re-quotes | 40k – 80k | 1.3M – 2.6M | estimate |
| Newbilt Duplex system (two HRP 12, EX 50 + EX 35, trimmer, label oven, shrink wrapper, grinder, label punch) | 350k – 370k | 11.6M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 for the Single 2.1 plus the quoted second press and extruder ~USD 115k; expired, re-quote |
| Newbilt Classic | 290k – 460k | 9.6M – 15.2M | placeholder (the old AD12 band per press); **no Newbilt price on file** |
| Pheenix galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, PDPU, PMPB) | 324k – 445k | 10.7M – 14.7M | **OMS's reference plus 20 %** (user, October 2026): OMS's 4-cell wet room with the know-how transfer, EUR 234k to 321k (~USD 270k to 371k, [galvanics](../equipment/galvanics.md#oms-introduction-letter-9-october-2026)), as the price basis for the Pheenix line; **no Pheenix price on file** (was 320k to 650k, estimate) |
| Galvanics water: ZLD evaporator and DI water | 97k – 258k | 3.2M – 8.5M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) rows, now launch scope |
| Water-treatment building next to galvanics (~12 × 10 m, proposed) | 52k – 87k | 1.7M – 2.9M | estimate at the building rate below |
| Sibert VSF, VSP, VSC | 250k | 8.3M | Sibert's budget confirmation, 5 October 2026; its time, spares, shipping and travel in the freight and working-capital lines |
| Cutting room: Sillitoe SDMS, spare cutterhead and support, mastering console and chain, monitoring, room build-out | 200k – 350k | 6.6M – 11.6M | SDMS list price USD 125k (ex tax and shipping); the rest estimate |
| Metrology and QC stack (XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler, inline vision on three presses, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.6M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable ([quality automation](../quality-automation.md)) |
| PVC lab, day-one tier | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md) |
| Utilities, steam, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking | 1,045k – 1,764k | 34.5M – 58.2M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three; **biomass steam** (two 500 kg/h modules, 6M to 10M THB, plus the fuel store and handling, 1M to 2M) and **PV on the factory roof** (~520 kWp at 20 to 26 THB/W installed; office roof and parking canopies PV-ready), both user decisions of 17 October 2026; the battery installed (Thai market prices checked October 2026, sources in the CSV) |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil and site works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.3M | estimate at 12,000 – 20,000 THB/m² plus ~20 % site works; soil is the main variable |
| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
| Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules | 73k – 122k | 2.4M – 4.0M | estimate, [scale](../scale.md#detached-utility-yard-parking-and-what-that-moves) |
| Factory software, ERPNext, artist platform public side | 115k – 310k | 3.8M – 10.2M | estimate: factory software 60k – 170k, ERPNext implementation 15k – 50k ([digital factory](../digital-factory.md#erpnext-the-plants-erp)), artist platform 40k – 90k ([artist platform](../artist-platform.md)) |
| Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication | 55k – 190k | 1.8M – 6.3M | estimate, business plan sections 4.8 and 4.9 |
| Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its quoted 5 days) | 150k – 300k | 5.0M – 9.9M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent | 135k – 290k | 4.5M – 9.6M | estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase |
| Subtotal | ~4.42M – 7.79M | ~146M – 257M | midpoint ~6.11M USD, ~202M THB |
| Contingency 15 % | ~0.66M – 1.17M | ~22M – 39M | |
| **Total, launch plant** | **~5.1M – 9.0M USD** | **~168M – 296M THB** | midpoint ~7.02M USD, ~232M THB |

Not in the total: a **reserve for the ramp-up** (staff hired before first
revenue, overheads until volume covers them; ~10M to 20M THB, estimate),
CD replication, financing costs, currency moves, the archive's mobile
shelving (to quote), and the central hydraulic plant around the Newbilt
aggregates: standby pump set, accumulator station and ring main (not
costed yet; a Thai HPU builder quotes it,
[Chinese suppliers](../suppliers/china-utilities.md#hydraulics)). The blocks are vendor prices without Thai duty or
import VAT, so they assume BOI promotion: without it, ~5 % duty on ~2.3M
USD of imported machinery (~0.11M USD) comes on top, plus ~0.17M USD of
import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).

### The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)

*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026)
below. Written against the earlier Pheenix estimate (USD 320k to 650k,
total ~227M THB at the midpoint); its galvanics lever is now the base
price.*

The project's investor asked whether the plant can be built for **180M
THB (~5.45M USD), possibly up to 20 % more (216M THB, ~6.55M USD)**.

| Case | Launch plant | Against 180M | Against 216M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end of every block | ~161M THB | fits, ~19M to spare | fits |
| Midpoint | ~227M THB | ~47M over | ~11M over |
| High end of every block | ~292M THB | ~112M over | ~76M over |

**Read honestly: 216M THB is a realistic target for the full equipment
list; 180M THB holds only if the open quotes land low.** At the midpoint
four levers bring the plant inside 216M without dropping any of the
machines decided above (midpoint values with their share of the
contingency, estimates):

| Lever | Saves | Launch plant after it |
|---|---|---|
| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the EPC owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) instead of buying them | ~12.3M THB | ~214M THB |
| Metrology launch tier (XRF, inline vision, audio station), the laser confocal and the wide-area profiler bought from revenue | ~10.1M THB | ~204M THB |
| Pheenix galvanics priced near OMS's reference for a 4-cell wet room | ~6.7M THB | ~198M THB |
| Visitor corridor built later; the plant runs without public tours at first | ~4.1M THB | ~193M THB |

Add the ramp-up reserve of ~10M to 20M THB and that is **~203M to 213M
THB, inside the 216M**. Reaching 180M at the midpoint needs scope cuts on
top: cassette and CD-R later (~4.6M THB) and renting a crane for the
installations while the frame stays crane-ready (~3.7M THB) give ~185M
before the reserve, still above 180M, so 180M is a low-quote outcome, not
a plan.

Chinese suppliers for the boilers, compressed air and hydraulics were
checked in October 2026
([Chinese suppliers](../suppliers/china-utilities.md)): about 2M THB at
the midpoint, ~2.5M with its share of the contingency, mostly on the two
boiler modules (ASME-stamped 1.25 MPa units from makers with Thai
references, installed by a Thai contractor) and a little on the
compressor (a Chinese brand bought through its Thai office). That is
about 1 % of the target and does not change the answer; the Newbilt
hydraulic aggregates stay Newbilt's. Chinese chillers and HVAC, larger
blocks, are not checked yet.

What decides it: the two largest machine lines have no price at all (the
Classic and the Pheenix galvanics line), and the building depends on the
soil. Four requests settle most of the band: the Newbilt re-quote for the
Duplex and the Classic, a Pheenix quote for the galvanics line, the
building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology
stack. Until they are in, quote **~216M THB** to the investor as the
target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.

## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~215M THB (October 2026)

**The main investor wants to go with Plan B** (user, 19 October 2026).
Plan B is the proposal from here on: the investor deck leads with it,
and Plan A stays as the comparison, the version with the lowest launch
capital. Nothing in either plan's figures changes with that choice.

**Shareholding (user, 20 October 2026): the main investor holds at least
60 % of the company** that holds the plant and the BOI promotion, so at
most **40 % is for sale** to other shareholders. Ploy Printing's stake
(cash, in kind or both), any founders' shares and any further
co-investor all come out of that 40 %. BOI promotion permits up to 100 %
foreign ownership of the promoted activity ([BOI](../boi.md)), so the
split needs no particular nationality on either side. With BOI's 3:1
debt-to-equity ceiling Plan B needs at least ~54M THB of equity; if all
of it were paid in at one share price, the main investor's 60 % would be
at least ~32M THB and the 40 % at most ~22M THB (arithmetic only: the
share price, the valuation, the total equity above the floor and any
founders' or in-kind shares are not agreed). The terms go into the
shareholders' agreement (business plan section 12.2).

Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:

- **Plan A, ~180M THB**: the launch plant with every machine decided
  above (one Duplex system, one Classic, galvanics, Sibert, the cutting
  room), brought down with six cost levers.
- **Plan B, ~215M THB**: the same launch plant, one Duplex system and
  one Classic, with everything in: none of Plan A's six levers taken.
  First drawn as five presses at ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %); re-defined
  by the user on 17 October 2026 ("plan b should also only start with 1
  duplex and 1 classic, but with all levers"). In both plans the second
  Duplex system is a growth step from revenue.
- **Both run on biomass steam, with PV on the factory roof only**
  (user, 17 October 2026: "only put solar on the factory, prepare the
  other buildings for solar, option a and b should operate on biomass").
  The office roof and the parking canopies are built PV-ready. With
  biomass the plant's running load falls to ~230 kW, so the best array
  is ~500 to 550 kWp ([sustainability](../sustainability.md#pv-size-with-biomass-steam)),
  about the ~520 kWp factory roof. Against the earlier electric steam
  and ~640 kWp, in Plan B the biomass boilers and fuel store add ~3.8M
  at the midpoint over the Thai electric bank and the smaller array saves
  ~2.8M, so it rises from ~216M to **~217M**; Plan A leases the array and
  had the cheaper Chinese electric boilers, so it takes the full ~5.4M,
  from ~177M to **~182M**. Biomass saves ~4.2M THB a year of steam energy
  (calculator).

Both are priced **without contingency** (user decision) and **with the
ramp-up reserve**, because the reserve is cash the investor puts in
before volume carries the plant. Pheenix galvanics is priced at OMS's
reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:

| Plan A: launch plant with six levers | Saves | Subtotal after it |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~201.6M THB (~6.11M USD) |
| Solar (~520 kWp on the factory roof) and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~14.7M | ~186.9M |
| Metrology launch tier: XRF, inline vision and audio station at launch; laser confocal and wide-area profiler (USD 180k to 350k) bought from revenue | ~8.8M | ~178.1M |
| Visitor corridor built later; no public tours at first | ~3.6M | ~174.5M |
| Cassette and CD-R duplication later | ~4.0M | ~170.5M |
| Crane rented for the installations; frame, runway and machine door stay crane-ready | ~3.2M | ~167.3M |
| Compressor through the Chinese route ([Chinese suppliers](../suppliers/china-utilities.md)); the route priced only electric boilers, so with biomass it saves only the compressor | ~0.25M | **~167.1M (~5.06M USD)** |
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan A** | | **~182M THB (~5.52M USD)**, ~2M above 180M at the midpoint (177M with the reserve's low end); ~132M to 233M from the low to the high end of every block |

| Plan B: the launch plant, everything in | USD | THB |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar (~520 kWp) and battery ~14.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai compressor ~0.25M, together ~34.5M THB at the midpoint) | 4.42M – 7.79M | ~146M – 257M, **~201.6M (~6.11M USD)** at the midpoint |
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan B** | | **~217M THB (~6.56M USD): ~215M**, ~156M to 277M from the low to the high end of every block |

Plan B costs ~35M THB (~19 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
sits ~0.6M above the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (216M) and 8.4M under
the 225M mark (its high end, ~277M, is above both). It keeps what Plan A leases or defers:
owned solar on the factory roof and the battery, the full
metrology stack from the first release, the visitor corridor and tours
from the start, cassette and CD-R, the bought crane, Thai-supplied
utilities with local service. Both plans have the same three presses and
make the same ~0.58 to 0.90 million records a year at the planned 60 %
specials (Duplex-limited); the operating pictures are in the
[revenue model](revenue-model.md#operating-pictures-of-plan-a-and-plan-b-october-2026).
The [plant and business plan calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) has
both as presets.

**Not in either plan price:**
- **Contingency.** The blocks are budgetary (plus or minus 30 to 50 % on
  the estimates, top of this page), so the plans carry no buffer for
  quotes landing high. At this page's 15 % that would be ~25M THB on
  Plan A and ~30M on Plan B at the midpoint.
- The central hydraulic plant (not costed yet), the archive's mobile
  shelving (to quote), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves,
  and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).

**What decides between them:** not demand, since both make the same
records, but whether the investor funds ~35M THB more at launch for what
Plan A leases or buys from revenue. On the modelled numbers Plan B's
extra earns little: the same EBITDA in the revenue model (the calculator
puts Plan B ~0.06M USD a year ahead, the PPA power bill its owned array
avoids), more depreciation and a longer payback;
its case rests on that bill and on what the operating table leaves out:
full stamper metrology for the traceability pitch from the first release,
tours and the Payap programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, and
utilities with local service. The BOI no longer promotes solar
installations (Announcement 3/2568, in force 1 July 2025; only the
battery may still qualify, see [BOI](../boi.md)), so owning the array
earns no tax benefit, only the bill. Most of Plan B's items can be added
to Plan A later from revenue; the corridor is cheaper to have from the
start. **Plan A over 180M:** the way back is a quote for a Chinese
biomass boiler (ZOZEN, Sitong, Taiguo and Yongxing build them; none
priced yet): ~2M or more below the Getabec-class package brings Plan A
to 180M at the midpoint. Both plans keep the second Duplex as a growth step, with its
floor, utility positions and ring-main tees reserved: ~15.4M THB at the
midpoint for the system (~8.7M), a third chiller module CH-3 (~2.1M),
their freight and installation (~1.2M) and the working capital for the
extra records (~3.4M), estimates on the calculator's basis, as first
priced for the five-press Plan B.

## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)

The five-press full vision below is superseded by the launch plant above.
Scale, pressing line, roadmap, revenue model (which now has a launch-plant
operating picture) and the fleet calculator are re-based on the launch
plant; the business plan is next. It stays for the record of how the
blocks were built.

| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote. The fleet has since changed, see the added-scope table |
| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning. Replaced by the Newbilt Classic in the current fleet, see the added-scope table |
| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, [galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)) is unpriced too; OMS's reference prices (letter, 9 October 2026) put a complete 4-cell wet room at EUR 224k basic to 311k advanced (~USD 259k to 359k; ~270k to 371k with know-how transfer), installation and water treatment extra: at or below this block's low end, kept until quotes exist |
| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row |
| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate kept until the re-base; Sibert has since confirmed USD 250k for the three (its time, spares, shipping and travel extra), the difference is in the table below |
| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 290k – 580k | 9.6M – 19.1M | estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist |
| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.5M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable |
| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 730k – 1,270k | 24.0M – 41.6M | reviewed [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv), THB-native; sized for one Duplex, the five-press re-size is in the table below |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.2M | estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
| Land 6–8 rai, if purchased | 360k – 970k | 12.0M – 32.0M | estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
| Traceability and factory software | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate |
| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Subtotal | ~4.1M – 7.7M | ~135M – 254M | |
| Contingency 15% | ~0.6M – 1.2M | ~20M – 38M | |
| **Total, full vision** | **~4.7M – 8.9M USD** | **~155M – 294M THB** | |

### Added scope, not yet in the roll-up

Decided, or re-priced by a vendor, after the roll-up above was compiled;
carried here until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the
building, software and stamper prep lines, and the contingency on top).

| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
| Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments) | 40k – 90k | 1.3M – 3.0M | estimate, [artist platform](../artist-platform.md) |
| PVC material lab, day-one tier (incl. plaque press and sample conditioning) | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md); not costed in the metrology block above. The mature tier (torque rheometer, DSC, FTIR, ~120k – 240k) is deferred, with partner labs in between |
| Stamper prep re-priced: USD 250k for VSP, VSF and VSC against the 60k – 170k block above | +190k (low case) / +80k (high case) | +6.3M / +2.6M | Sibert's budget confirmation, email of 5 October 2026 ([galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)); itemised quotation to follow. Its time, spare parts, shipping and travel are extra and fall into the freight/installation and spares blocks above |
| Press fleet changed (October 2026) to two Newbilt Duplex systems (two presses each, EX 50 main extruder and EX 35 colour extruder) plus one Newbilt Classic, replacing the two blocks above (930k – 1,290k): Duplex system 1 as the first block (350k – 370k; the quote's second-extruder option becomes the EX 35), system 2 ~230k – 300k (two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set as the yardstick, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35, estimate; no EX 35 price on file), the Classic ~290k – 460k (the AD12 band per press as a placeholder; no Newbilt price on file) | −60k (low case) / −160k (high case) | −2.0M / −5.3M | estimate, [pressing line](../equipment/pressing-line.md); the Newbilt re-quote replaces it. The utilities for five presses are re-sized in the row below |
| Utilities re-sized for the five-press fleet (October 2026): boiler bank 2 × 500 kg/h, chiller bank 3 × 250 kW with plate heat exchanger and tanks, larger softener and loop treatment ([steam and cooling](../steam-cooling.html)) | +185k (low case) / +294k (high case) | +6.1M / +9.7M | estimate, [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) re-based from 24.0M – 41.6M to 30.1M – 51.3M THB |
| Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules (October 2026): yard ~379 m² against 178 m² ([scale](../scale.md#detached-utility-yard-parking-and-what-that-moves)) | 73k – 122k | 2.4M – 4.0M | estimate: the building rate above on the ~200 m² the yard grows by; the open chiller compound costs less than a building, so this is the cautious end. The valved branches and feeders for the empty positions are not priced yet |
| ERPNext for the whole plant (October 2026): configuration with Thai tax, integration with every tool, Nix packaging; `vinyl-erp` server | to quote | to quote | not in the sum: 3.5 to 6 person-months in-house or a partner quote (Ecosoft), plus 2k to 4k USD hardware ([digital factory](../digital-factory.md#erpnext-the-plants-erp)); no licence fee |
| Archive mobile shelving for the father and mother archive (October 2026) | to quote | to quote | not in the sum: A-Z Solutions publishes no prices; quote it and a Thai supplier ([facility security](../facility-security.md#archive-room-mobile-shelving)) |
| **Added so far** | **~678k – 1,027k** | **~22.3M – 33.9M** | about 13 to 17% on the full-vision subtotal |

## Phased entry (superseded October 2026)

Superseded by the launch plant above, which launches with galvanics, the
cutting room and three presses. The earlier phased entry, kept for
reference: a launch phase of roughly **1.7M to 2.9M USD (~57M to 95M
THB)**:

- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full
  metrology deferred; the PVC lab's day-one tier is the added-scope row
  above
- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
- Galvanics, the second Duplex system and the Classic, full metrology,
  and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round
  expansions

The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the
bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass
steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for
exactly this reason.

## What moves the number

- **BOI**: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment
  blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption
  headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see
  [boi.md](../boi.md)). The blocks are vendor prices without Thai duty or
  import VAT, so the headline assumes promotion: without it, ~0.14M USD of
  duty and ~0.2M USD of import VAT (reclaimable later) come on top at the
  start fleet (estimate)
- **Buy vs lease** on land and building swings roughly **1.0M to 2.1M
  USD (~34M to 69M THB)** of upfront capital, and also moves the launch
  date by about three quarters; see
  [project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)
- **Biggest uncertainty bands**: metrology (partly a choice of ambition),
  the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the
  Newbilt Classic (no price on file), and land
- **Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here.** Revenue is
  mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and
  the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged
  against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see
  [project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)). A 10% move in EUR/THB
  between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line
  alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in
  [equipment-suppliers.md](../suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md) lists who
  to ask