cnx_vinyl/docs/scale.md

# Project Scale: Rough Numbers

One-page sizing of the whole project. Everything here is a planning
estimate derived from the session's vendor data and standard ratios;
figures marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation yet. Update this
page as real quotes and the site decision land.

## Production capacity

| Phase | Fleet | Rough output |
|---|---|---|
| Launch | 1 semi-auto press (Newbilt Single, the first half of Duplex system 1), 1 shift | ~90,000 to 135,000 records/yr |
| Duplex | 2 semi-auto presses (Duplex system 1: EX 50 main and EX 35 colour extruder), 1 to 2 shifts | ~175,000 to 540,000 records/yr |
| Mature | 4 semi-auto (two Duplex systems, each EX 50 + EX 35) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), 2 shifts | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr |
| Expansion (option) | the mature fleet + up to 10 more Newbilt Classics, 2 shifts | ~4.7 to 5.8 million records/yr (estimate) |

The [press fleet calculator](fleet-calculator.html) sizes the fleet for
any yearly output and specials share, with the people and utilities it
needs; at the user's planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex
system, 2 per Classic, 65 % effectiveness, two shifts) the start fleet
makes ~1.5 million records a year and a full Payap press hall (two Duplex
systems and eleven Classics) ~5.2 million.

Basis: the current fleet plan of October 2026
([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)). The automated Classic
~128 records/hour (28 s cycle, vendor flyer); semi-automatic throughput is
unpublished, assumed 60 to 80 records/hour per press with operator
handling (estimate); 16 h/day, 300 days/yr, with realistic overall
effectiveness of 60 to 70% applied: 368 to 448 records/hour, ~1.06 to 1.5
million a year. The theoretical ceiling of the mature fleet at 100% uptime
is roughly 1.8 to 2.2 million records per year. (The earlier 50/50 fleet,
two semi-automatic presses and two Pheenix AD12s, landed in the same
range.) The expansion row is an option the plant keeps room for, not a
plan: ten more Classics add ~1,280 records/hour on the same basis, and
neither the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md) nor the investment
includes them.

**The 60–70% effectiveness assumption is worth challenging, but not yet
changing.** Newbilt publishes ≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime for the Classic
12" automatic at a 28 s cycle (~128 records/h), and quotes ~30 s average
for the Duplex. Three reasons not to adjust anything on that basis:

- **Machine uptime is not plant OEE.** A vendor uptime figure excludes
  stamper and mould changes, label reels, colour changeovers, PVC lot
  changes, first-article QC and breaks — precisely the losses that
  dominate a short-run boutique plant. They are different quantities.
- It would apply only to the **automated press** (the Classic). The
  60–80/h semi-auto figure already embeds operator handling, so applying
  an uplift to that half would double-count.
- 0.95 × 0.95 is 0.90 before any performance factor; reaching 80% OEE
  needs a performance factor near 0.89, which nobody has estimated.

Ask both press vendors for the **basis** of their uptime and yield
figures — measured over what period, at what run length, counting which
stoppages — as part of the re-quote. It is a free question. If the
figures survive scrutiny they would argue for a higher OEE on the
automated fleet only, and the same logic would apply to any competitor
running the same machine.

## Building

| Zone | Rough area |
|---|---|
| Semi-auto press hall (Newbilt Duplex spec) | ~200 m² |
| Automated press zone | ~100 to 150 m² |
| Galvanics clean room + water treatment + chemical storage | ~80 to 150 m² |
| Mastering and cutting room | ~40 to 60 m² |
| Stamper prep | ~30 m² |
| Packaging + finished goods warehouse | ~300 to 500 m² |
| Utility rooms (boiler, compressor, chiller, electrical) | ~100 to 150 m² |
| Offices, QC/listening, archive, IT, entrance | ~150 to 200 m² |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay (crane-served) | ~100 to 150 m² |
| Visitor corridor (glazed, ground level) | ~110 to 130 m² |
| Circulation, walls, misc | ~150 to 250 m² |
| **Total under roof** | **~1,400 to 2,000 m²** |

The HVAC budget in the utilities CSV already assumes ~1,500 m² conditioned.
Single story throughout: all heavy equipment needs ground-slab floor
loading (multiple tons per m²).

The workshop and the visitor corridor were added in October 2026, together
with an overhead crane over the production compartment; what they need and
what they change in the shell is in
[crane, workshop and tours](crane-workshop-tours.md). They add ~210 to
280 m² to a program that already filled the 60 × 25 m footprint, which
settles the open question below in favour of growing the program into the
floor the utility yard frees: at the lower half of the table everything
fits; at the upper half, finished goods move to the phase 2 building.

### Detached utility yard, parking, and what that moves

The massing model puts the boiler and chiller in a **detached utility yard**
alongside the main building rather than inside it, which is what the boiler's
own-room requirement in [facility security](facility-security.md) and biomass
fuel delivery both push toward:

| | Area | Height |
|---|---|---|
| Boiler hall | 66 m² | 6.0 m |
| Biomass fuel store | 42 m² | 5.0 m |
| Chiller room | 60 m² | 5.0 m |
| Cooling tower (outdoor pad) | 10 m² | 3.5 m |
| Flue stack | - | 14 m |

Boiler plus chiller at 126 m² lands inside the 100 to 150 m² the zone table
allows, but moving them out of the main shed frees that floor for
production, so either the main building shrinks by ~126 m² or the program
grows into it. Decide which before the building is priced.

Staff parking is roofed, in the front yard clear of the loading route:
**10 car bays** (27.7 × 7.0 m canopy, 195 m²) and **~30 scooter spaces**
(13.7 × 5.5 m, 76 m²), carrying a further **~40 kWp** of PV on their
canopies — dimensions per the modelled layout in the
[construction RFQ](finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md). At 4.1 m and 3.5 m
they sit below the main building's 7.0 m low eave, so they cannot shade it.
Fully covered with the 580 W placeholder module the two canopies take 94
modules (~54 kWp); see the Payap parts model in
[site candidates](site-candidates.md#roof-pv-and-parking-canopies-part-and-draft-model-october-2026).

### Expansion headroom: a second building

Tested against the candidate Mueang Chi parcel, in the massing model at
`factory_building_rough.FCStd`. The whole zone table above fits inside one
60 × 25 m building, so a second one is expansion **beyond** the current
program — doubling pressing capacity, or moving finished goods out to free
production floor — not a gap in it.

| | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Footprint | 60 × 25 m — 1,500 m² | 45 × 38 m — 1,710 m² | 3,210 m² |
| Roof PV | ~247 kWp | ~251 kWp | **~498 kWp** |
| Tightest boundary clearance | 15.7 m | 3.0 m | |

- **45 × 38 m is the sweet spot.** The plot narrows going south, so past
  ~45 m of length the width falls away faster than length adds: 40 m gives
  1,607 m², 45 m gives 1,723 m², 50 m drops to 1,558 m², and beyond 65 m
  nothing useful fits.
- **A 20 m yard** between the buildings covers fire separation and shared
  loading off the phase 1 circulation road.
- **Roof form: two-bay sawtooth, shaded rows deliberately left empty.**
  A single 38 m monopitch would be the best solar answer — 28 panel rows,
  none shaded, ~17% more yield than what is drawn, but it needs a **13.7 m**
  high wall. The sawtooth holds the high side to **10.35 m**, at a cost: each
  bay falls toward ESE onto the next bay's 3.35 m riser, so the bottom rows
  sit in shadow (the lowest is blocked below a 53° sun profile angle). Those
  two rows on the first bay are left empty rather than populated, which
  trades ~8% of the roof's yield for clean strings, no mismatch losses, and
  a maintenance walkway. Building height won this trade; revisit it if
  cladding a 13.7 m wall turns out cheaper than the lost generation.
  A 7° single pitch (11.7 m high side) sits between the two if wanted.
- **Coverage stays comfortable**: 3,210 m² is 39% of the deed area (34% of
  the mapped extent), well under the 50 to 60% typically allowed.
- **The two roofs together clear 500 kWp**, which removes the need for the
  ground-mount solar assumed further down this page.

Two caveats. Phase 2's tightest corner sits **3.0 m** from the boundary and
must be checked against the local ผังเมือง setback rule before it is taken as
real. And the plot's zoning for factory use is still unverified — that gates
phase 1 every bit as much as phase 2.

## Land: factory plot

Industrial plots typically allow 50 to 60% building coverage, and the site
needs truck access and turning, parking, the outdoor cooling tower, the
separated BESS enclosure, possible ground-mount solar, and expansion room.

- Minimum workable: **~4 rai** (6,400 m²)
- Comfortable with expansion and ground-mount solar: **~6 to 8 rai**
  (9,600 to 12,800 m²)

Separate asset: the **60 rai** forestry-classified parcel for coppice
fuelwood (see [biomass](biomass.md)), pending its title check. It is a fuel
plantation, not a factory site candidate unless the classification allows
conversion, which forestry land generally does not.

## Electrical scale

| Load | Rough figure |
|---|---|
| Pressing machinery (two Duplex systems + the Classic, central hydraulics) | ~118 kVA connected, ~73 kW average while running (Newbilt per-machine figures; the EX 35 and the Classic counted like the EX 50 and an HRP 12 until published) |
| Chiller bank (up to ~650 kW cooling) | ~210 to 325 kW electrical at the peak (~80 to 125 kW per 250 kW of cooling, air-cooled, hot season; estimate) |
| Whole-factory HVAC | ~100 to 200 kW peak (estimate) |
| Electric steam boiler bank (if chosen over biomass/LPG) | ~520 to 625 kW for 750 to 900 kg/h |
| Compressed air, lighting, IT, misc | ~30 to 50 kW |
| **Plant peak demand** | **~430 to 700 kW without electric boiler; ~950 to 1,330 kW with it** |

Grid connection: a medium-voltage connection from PEA with a transformer in
the **800 to 1,000 kVA** class without electric steam, **1,250 to 1,600 kVA**
with it; past 1,000 kW of demand the plant moves to PEA Schedule 4, whose
time-of-use rates are the same.

**Re-based for the five-press fleet** (October 2026; the concept is drawn
in [steam and cooling](steam-cooling.html)). At Newbilt's per-machine
figures the two Duplex systems and the Classic need 750 to 900 kg/h of
steam and up to ~650 kW of cooling (625 kW presses, 15 kW extruders, 12.5
kW hydraulic oil cooler) at 305 to 540 l/min of circulating water. The
peak rows assume all five presses cooling hard on a hot afternoon; the
Classic counts as one HRP 12 press plus one extruder until Newbilt states
its figures. The presses share one central hydraulic plant and one
compressed-air plant. The optional ten more Classics would need up to ~1.9
MW of cooling and ~2.3 to 2.7 t/h of steam: a utility phase of its own.

Tariff: PEA Schedule 3.2.2, Medium General Service on time of use at
22 kV (the flat rate is closed to new customers): 132.93 THB/kW demand
charge on the peak-hour maximum, 4.1839 THB/kWh peak (09:00 to 22:00 on
weekdays) and 2.6037 THB/kWh off-peak, plus Ft (0.1623 THB/kWh for
September to December 2026) and VAT. Two-shift production lands at a
blended ~3.81 THB/kWh before the demand charge, roughly 4.5M to 6.8M THB a
year without electric steam, 0.7M to 1.1M of it demand charge (estimate); the deposit for the connection is
400 THB per kVA. Detail and what it decides for steam, PV and the battery
in [sustainability](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides).

Galvanics (Phase 5) is not in the table yet. By the Pheenix Alpha and
Sibert datasheets, one electroforming line plus the stamper prep machines
is ~30 kVA connected, two three-phase plating units and the rest
single-phase (see [galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)):
small against the connection, but its own feeder and meter.

## Solar and storage

- The phase 1 roof carries **~247 kWp** (425 modules on the 1,523 m²
  roof plane, per the [construction RFQ](finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md)).
  This supersedes the older rule of thumb of 150 to 200 kWp on a
  ~1,500 m² building, which the massing model has overtaken
- Northern Thailand yield ~1,400 to 1,500 kWh/kWp/yr, so 300 kWp produces
  roughly **420 to 450 MWh/yr**
- Plant consumption at mature two-shift operation: roughly **1,000 to
  1,500 MWh/yr** without electric steam, up to **~2,500 MWh/yr** with it
  (estimate), so 300 kWp covers roughly **28 to 45%** of consumption
  without electric steam, falling to **~17%** with it; a bigger array
  shifts that up
- Battery: **271 kWh** Gobel stack (ride-through, roughly
  an hour of the chiller bank's peak electrical draw; peak shaving earns
  little under PEA's time-of-use tariff, see
  [sustainability](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides))

## Steam and fuel

- Boiler bank: the five-press fleet draws **~750 to 900 kg/h at 10 bar /
  180 °C** (~510 to 610 kW thermal) at Newbilt's 150 to 180 kg/h per press.
  Proposed: **two 500 kg/h modules** (B-1 with the launch press and Duplex
  system 1, B-2 with system 2 and the Classic), 1,000 kg/h installed; a
  third module for N+1 is an RFQ option
  ([steam and cooling](steam-cooling.html)). The 2024 Newbilt quote's
  ~400 kg/h covers one Duplex system
- Chiller bank: up to **~650 kW** of cooling; proposed **three 250 kW
  air-cooled modules** rated at 40 °C ambient, one per press stage, behind a
  plate heat exchanger with warm and cold tanks (estimate)
- If biomass: **~350 to 400 t/yr** air-dry wood at ~1.0 to 1.1 million
  records a year, up to **~550 t/yr** at the start fleet's full ~1.5
  million (fuel follows records pressed, not presses installed); the 60 rai
  coppice could supply **~80 to 135 t/yr**
- If LPG: a bulk tank on site sized with the boiler bank (the ~2.5 to 5 t
  first estimated was for one Duplex; no gas pipeline in the North)

## People

Rough mature-operation headcount (estimate): 4 to 6 press/finishing
operators per shift, 2 to 3 galvanics, 1 to 2 mastering/cutting engineers,
1 to 2 QC, 2 maintenance, 3 to 5 admin/sales/logistics. Roughly **15 to 25
people** across shifts at maturity, fewer than half that at launch. For
galvanics, OMS's rule of thumb (one person runs about 20 stampers a day,
two from about 30) against the 8 to 20 parts a day at full capacity
points to one operator per shift
([galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)).

## Money (cross-references)

Figures in USD and THB at 1 USD = 33 THB (5 August 2026); vendor quotes
keep their original currency alongside.

- Newbilt semi-auto line: **~USD 232k (~7.7M THB)**, from the June 2024
  quote of EUR 200,500 — expired, in
  [pressing-line](equipment/pressing-line.md)
- Thai-sourced utilities, HVAC, racking, solar, BESS baseline: **~30M to
  51M THB (~USD 910k to 1.56M)** for the five-press fleet, detail in the
  [utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv)
- Not yet priced: the second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic
  (estimates in [total investment](finance/total-investment.md)),
  galvanics line, mastering/cutting room, metrology, building
  construction/fit-out, land