cnx_vinyl/docs/scale.md

Project Scale: Rough Numbers

One-page sizing of the whole project. Everything here is a planning estimate derived from the session's vendor data and standard ratios; figures marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation yet. Update this page as real quotes and the site decision land.

Production capacity

Phase	Fleet	Rough output
Launch	1 semi-auto press (Newbilt Single, the first half of Duplex system 1), 1 shift	~90,000 to 135,000 records/yr
Duplex	2 semi-auto presses (Duplex system 1: EX 50 main and EX 35 colour extruder), 1 to 2 shifts	~175,000 to 540,000 records/yr
Mature	4 semi-auto (two Duplex systems, each EX 50 + EX 35) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), 2 shifts	~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr
Expansion (option)	the mature fleet + up to 10 more Newbilt Classics, 2 shifts	~4.7 to 5.8 million records/yr (estimate)

The press fleet calculator sizes the fleet for any yearly output and specials share, with the people and utilities it needs; at the user's planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex system, 2 per Classic, 65 % effectiveness, two shifts) the start fleet makes ~1.5 million records a year and a full Payap press hall (two Duplex systems and eleven Classics) ~5.2 million.

Basis: the current fleet plan of October 2026 (pressing line). The automated Classic ~128 records/hour (28 s cycle, vendor flyer); semi-automatic throughput is unpublished, assumed 60 to 80 records/hour per press with operator handling (estimate); 16 h/day, 300 days/yr, with realistic overall effectiveness of 60 to 70% applied: 368 to 448 records/hour, ~1.06 to 1.5 million a year. The theoretical ceiling of the mature fleet at 100% uptime is roughly 1.8 to 2.2 million records per year. (The earlier 50/50 fleet, two semi-automatic presses and two Pheenix AD12s, landed in the same range.) The expansion row is an option the plant keeps room for, not a plan: ten more Classics add ~1,280 records/hour on the same basis, and neither the revenue model nor the investment includes them.

The 60–70% effectiveness assumption is worth challenging, but not yet changing. Newbilt publishes ≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime for the Classic 12" automatic at a 28 s cycle (~128 records/h), and quotes ~30 s average for the Duplex. Three reasons not to adjust anything on that basis:

• Machine uptime is not plant OEE. A vendor uptime figure excludes stamper and mould changes, label reels, colour changeovers, PVC lot changes, first-article QC and breaks — precisely the losses that dominate a short-run boutique plant. They are different quantities.
• It would apply only to the automated press (the Classic). The 60–80/h semi-auto figure already embeds operator handling, so applying an uplift to that half would double-count.
• 0.95 × 0.95 is 0.90 before any performance factor; reaching 80% OEE needs a performance factor near 0.89, which nobody has estimated.

Ask both press vendors for the basis of their uptime and yield figures — measured over what period, at what run length, counting which stoppages — as part of the re-quote. It is a free question. If the figures survive scrutiny they would argue for a higher OEE on the automated fleet only, and the same logic would apply to any competitor running the same machine.

Building

Zone	Rough area
Semi-auto press hall (Newbilt Duplex spec)	~200 m²
Automated press zone	~100 to 150 m²
Galvanics clean room + water treatment + chemical storage	~80 to 150 m²
Mastering and cutting room	~40 to 60 m²
Stamper prep	~30 m²
Packaging + finished goods warehouse	~300 to 500 m²
Utility rooms (boiler, compressor, chiller, electrical)	~100 to 150 m²
Offices, QC/listening, archive, IT, entrance	~150 to 200 m²
Maintenance workshop and machine bay (crane-served)	~100 to 150 m²
Visitor corridor (glazed, ground level)	~110 to 130 m²
Circulation, walls, misc	~150 to 250 m²
Total under roof	~1,400 to 2,000 m²

The HVAC budget in the utilities CSV already assumes ~1,500 m² conditioned. Single story throughout: all heavy equipment needs ground-slab floor loading (multiple tons per m²).

The workshop and the visitor corridor were added in October 2026, together with an overhead crane over the production compartment; what they need and what they change in the shell is in crane, workshop and tours. They add ~210 to 280 m² to a program that already filled the 60 × 25 m footprint, which settles the open question below in favour of growing the program into the floor the utility yard frees: at the lower half of the table everything fits; at the upper half, finished goods move to the phase 2 building.

Detached utility yard, parking, and what that moves

The massing model puts the boiler and chiller in a detached utility yard alongside the main building rather than inside it, which is what the boiler's own-room requirement in facility security and biomass fuel delivery both push toward:

	Area	Height
Boiler hall	66 m²	6.0 m
Biomass fuel store	42 m²	5.0 m
Chiller room	60 m²	5.0 m
Cooling tower (outdoor pad)	10 m²	3.5 m
Flue stack	-	14 m

Boiler plus chiller at 126 m² lands inside the 100 to 150 m² the zone table allows, but moving them out of the main shed frees that floor for production, so either the main building shrinks by ~126 m² or the program grows into it. Decide which before the building is priced.

Staff parking is roofed, in the front yard clear of the loading route: 10 car bays (27.7 × 7.0 m canopy, 195 m²) and ~30 scooter spaces (13.7 × 5.5 m, 76 m²), carrying a further ~40 kWp of PV on their canopies — dimensions per the modelled layout in the construction RFQ. At 4.1 m and 3.5 m they sit below the main building's 7.0 m low eave, so they cannot shade it. Fully covered with the 580 W placeholder module the two canopies take 94 modules (~54 kWp); see the Payap parts model in site candidates.

Expansion headroom: a second building

Tested against the candidate Mueang Chi parcel, in the massing model at factory_building_rough.FCStd. The whole zone table above fits inside one 60 × 25 m building, so a second one is expansion beyond the current program — doubling pressing capacity, or moving finished goods out to free production floor — not a gap in it.

	Phase 1	Phase 2	Total
Footprint	60 × 25 m — 1,500 m²	45 × 38 m — 1,710 m²	3,210 m²
Roof PV	~247 kWp	~251 kWp	~498 kWp
Tightest boundary clearance	15.7 m	3.0 m

• 45 × 38 m is the sweet spot. The plot narrows going south, so past ~45 m of length the width falls away faster than length adds: 40 m gives 1,607 m², 45 m gives 1,723 m², 50 m drops to 1,558 m², and beyond 65 m nothing useful fits.
• A 20 m yard between the buildings covers fire separation and shared loading off the phase 1 circulation road.
• Roof form: two-bay sawtooth, shaded rows deliberately left empty. A single 38 m monopitch would be the best solar answer — 28 panel rows, none shaded, ~17% more yield than what is drawn, but it needs a 13.7 m high wall. The sawtooth holds the high side to 10.35 m, at a cost: each bay falls toward ESE onto the next bay's 3.35 m riser, so the bottom rows sit in shadow (the lowest is blocked below a 53° sun profile angle). Those two rows on the first bay are left empty rather than populated, which trades ~8% of the roof's yield for clean strings, no mismatch losses, and a maintenance walkway. Building height won this trade; revisit it if cladding a 13.7 m wall turns out cheaper than the lost generation. A 7° single pitch (11.7 m high side) sits between the two if wanted.
• Coverage stays comfortable: 3,210 m² is 39% of the deed area (34% of the mapped extent), well under the 50 to 60% typically allowed.
• The two roofs together clear 500 kWp, which removes the need for the ground-mount solar assumed further down this page.

Two caveats. Phase 2's tightest corner sits 3.0 m from the boundary and must be checked against the local ผังเมือง setback rule before it is taken as real. And the plot's zoning for factory use is still unverified — that gates phase 1 every bit as much as phase 2.

Land: factory plot

Industrial plots typically allow 50 to 60% building coverage, and the site needs truck access and turning, parking, the outdoor cooling tower, the separated BESS enclosure, possible ground-mount solar, and expansion room.

• Minimum workable: ~4 rai (6,400 m²)
• Comfortable with expansion and ground-mount solar: ~6 to 8 rai (9,600 to 12,800 m²)

Separate asset: the 60 rai forestry-classified parcel for coppice fuelwood (see biomass), pending its title check. It is a fuel plantation, not a factory site candidate unless the classification allows conversion, which forestry land generally does not.

Electrical scale

Load	Rough figure
Pressing machinery (two Duplex systems + the Classic, central hydraulics)	~118 kVA connected, ~73 kW average while running (Newbilt per-machine figures; the EX 35 and the Classic counted like the EX 50 and an HRP 12 until published)
Chiller bank (up to ~650 kW cooling)	~210 to 325 kW electrical at the peak (~80 to 125 kW per 250 kW of cooling, air-cooled, hot season; estimate)
Whole-factory HVAC	~100 to 200 kW peak (estimate)
Electric steam boiler bank (if chosen over biomass/LPG)	~520 to 625 kW for 750 to 900 kg/h
Compressed air, lighting, IT, misc	~30 to 50 kW
Plant peak demand	~430 to 700 kW without electric boiler; ~950 to 1,330 kW with it

Grid connection: a medium-voltage connection from PEA with a transformer in the 800 to 1,000 kVA class without electric steam, 1,250 to 1,600 kVA with it; past 1,000 kW of demand the plant moves to PEA Schedule 4, whose time-of-use rates are the same.

Re-based for the five-press fleet (October 2026; the concept is drawn in steam and cooling). At Newbilt's per-machine figures the two Duplex systems and the Classic need 750 to 900 kg/h of steam and up to ~650 kW of cooling (625 kW presses, 15 kW extruders, 12.5 kW hydraulic oil cooler) at 305 to 540 l/min of circulating water. The peak rows assume all five presses cooling hard on a hot afternoon; the Classic counts as one HRP 12 press plus one extruder until Newbilt states its figures. The presses share one central hydraulic plant and one compressed-air plant. The optional ten more Classics would need up to ~1.9 MW of cooling and ~2.3 to 2.7 t/h of steam: a utility phase of its own.

Tariff: PEA Schedule 3.2.2, Medium General Service on time of use at 22 kV (the flat rate is closed to new customers): 132.93 THB/kW demand charge on the peak-hour maximum, 4.1839 THB/kWh peak (09:00 to 22:00 on weekdays) and 2.6037 THB/kWh off-peak, plus Ft (0.1623 THB/kWh for September to December 2026) and VAT. Two-shift production lands at a blended ~3.81 THB/kWh before the demand charge, roughly 4.5M to 6.8M THB a year without electric steam, 0.7M to 1.1M of it demand charge (estimate); the deposit for the connection is 400 THB per kVA. Detail and what it decides for steam, PV and the battery in sustainability.

Galvanics (Phase 5) is not in the table yet. By the Pheenix Alpha and Sibert datasheets, one electroforming line plus the stamper prep machines is ~30 kVA connected, two three-phase plating units and the rest single-phase (see galvanics and stamper prep): small against the connection, but its own feeder and meter.

Solar and storage

• The phase 1 roof carries ~247 kWp (425 modules on the 1,523 m² roof plane, per the construction RFQ). This supersedes the older rule of thumb of 150 to 200 kWp on a ~1,500 m² building, which the massing model has overtaken
• Northern Thailand yield ~1,400 to 1,500 kWh/kWp/yr, so 300 kWp produces roughly 420 to 450 MWh/yr
• Plant consumption at mature two-shift operation: roughly 1,000 to 1,500 MWh/yr without electric steam, up to ~2,500 MWh/yr with it (estimate), so 300 kWp covers roughly 28 to 45% of consumption without electric steam, falling to ~17% with it; a bigger array shifts that up
• Battery: 271 kWh Gobel stack (ride-through, roughly an hour of the chiller bank's peak electrical draw; peak shaving earns little under PEA's time-of-use tariff, see sustainability)

Steam and fuel

• Boiler bank: the five-press fleet draws ~750 to 900 kg/h at 10 bar / 180 °C (~510 to 610 kW thermal) at Newbilt's 150 to 180 kg/h per press. Proposed: two 500 kg/h modules (B-1 with the launch press and Duplex system 1, B-2 with system 2 and the Classic), 1,000 kg/h installed; a third module for N+1 is an RFQ option (steam and cooling). The 2024 Newbilt quote's ~400 kg/h covers one Duplex system
• Chiller bank: up to ~650 kW of cooling; proposed three 250 kW air-cooled modules rated at 40 °C ambient, one per press stage, behind a plate heat exchanger with warm and cold tanks (estimate)
• If biomass: ~350 to 400 t/yr air-dry wood at ~1.0 to 1.1 million records a year, up to ~550 t/yr at the start fleet's full ~1.5 million (fuel follows records pressed, not presses installed); the 60 rai coppice could supply ~80 to 135 t/yr
• If LPG: a bulk tank on site sized with the boiler bank (the ~2.5 to 5 t first estimated was for one Duplex; no gas pipeline in the North)

People

Rough mature-operation headcount (estimate): 4 to 6 press/finishing operators per shift, 2 to 3 galvanics, 1 to 2 mastering/cutting engineers, 1 to 2 QC, 2 maintenance, 3 to 5 admin/sales/logistics. Roughly 15 to 25 people across shifts at maturity, fewer than half that at launch. For galvanics, OMS's rule of thumb (one person runs about 20 stampers a day, two from about 30) against the 8 to 20 parts a day at full capacity points to one operator per shift (galvanics and stamper prep).

Money (cross-references)

Figures in USD and THB at 1 USD = 33 THB (5 August 2026); vendor quotes keep their original currency alongside.

• Newbilt semi-auto line: ~USD 232k (~7.7M THB), from the June 2024 quote of EUR 200,500 — expired, in pressing-line
• Thai-sourced utilities, HVAC, racking, solar, BESS baseline: ~30M to 51M THB (~USD 910k to 1.56M) for the five-press fleet, detail in the utilities CSV
• Not yet priced: the second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic (estimates in total investment), galvanics line, mastering/cutting room, metrology, building construction/fit-out, land