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cnx_vinyl/docs/finance/total-investment.md
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Add Pheenix galvanics flyers and Sibert stamper prep specs
docs/equipment/pheenix-alpha/: the four Pheenix Alpha electroforming flyers
(2024: PASU silvering, PPPU pre-plating, PDPU dual-cell plating, PMPB
passivation bench), renamed from their download hashes.
docs/equipment/sibert/: the VSP, VSF and VSC technical specifications
(2021), plus Sibert's 2008-09 optical-disc SPS literature and the 2008
Blu-ray stamper characteristics paper in sps-optical-disc-2009/. Two
byte-identical duplicates in the download were dropped.

New docs/equipment/galvanics.md, the metal-path counterpart to
pressing-line.md: datasheet tables for both ranges and what they change.
Pheenix is a second turnkey galvanics vendor next to Digital Matrix and
can quote lacquer-to-record as one vendor; neither range includes water
treatment. Utilities from the sheets (~27 kVA connected per line, DI water,
12-20 C cooling water, extraction sizes), ~5.6 m2 of footprint, and a cell
count estimate (one PDPU at the low end, two at the high end). The Sibert
machines are single-phase, 200/250/600 kg on castors, centre manually and
list no data interface; the VSC locates on the punched hole; the finisher's
water carries nickel. Weights, cycle times, prices and mould fit are listed
as quote questions.

Backlinks and small updates: README (bullet, layout tree, vendor list),
roadmap items 6 and 23, vendor landscape, supplier map, exhibitor briefing
(on-file notes, Sibert three-phase question answered), digital factory
(Pheenix PLC data, Sibert data question, RFQ clause 5), quality automation
(hardness on the centre slug, BD paper as the acceptance-spec model),
sustainability (finisher water), total investment block label (numbers
unchanged), scale (galvanics feeder note), crane weight table, process
flow, pressing-line stamper-fit question, plant page detail lines.
2026-10-03 21:05:00 +02:00

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Total Investment: Rough Picture

Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.

Currency: USD and THB. FX at 5 August 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB. Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at 1 EUR = 1.155 USD and 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. Original figures compiled July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at ~38 is where it was when they were made.

Full vision, all blocks

Block USD THB Basis
Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex 350k – 370k 11.5M – 12.2M 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote
2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) 580k – 920k 19.1M – 30.5M unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning
Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha) 320k – 650k 10.7M – 21.4M six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, galvanics and stamper prep) is unpriced too
Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) 90k – 240k 3.0M – 8.0M utilities CSV option row
Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) 60k – 170k 1.9M – 5.7M estimate, pricing unpublished (2021 specifications on file)
Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment) 290k – 580k 9.6M – 19.1M estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist
Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) 350k – 810k 11.5M – 26.7M estimate, phaseable
Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline 730k – 1,270k 24.0M – 41.6M reviewed utilities CSV, THB-native
Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works 650k – 1,100k 21.4M – 36.2M estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works
Land 6–8 rai, if purchased 360k – 970k 12.0M – 32.0M estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront
Traceability and factory software 60k – 170k 1.9M – 5.7M estimate
Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) 120k – 230k 3.8M – 7.6M estimate
Working capital, PVC stock, spares 120k – 230k 3.8M – 7.6M estimate
Subtotal ~4.1M – 7.7M ~135M – 254M
Contingency 15% ~0.6M – 1.2M ~20M – 38M
Total, full vision ~4.7M – 8.9M USD ~155M – 294M THB

Added scope, not yet in the roll-up

Decided after the roll-up above was compiled; carried here as estimates until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the building and software lines, and the contingency on top).

Block USD THB Basis
Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door 97k – 227k 3.2M – 7.5M estimate, crane, workshop and tours
Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out 30k – 76k 1.0M – 2.5M estimate, same
Visitor corridor and accessible entrance 67k – 148k 2.2M – 4.9M estimate, same
Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments) 40k – 90k 1.3M – 3.0M estimate, artist platform
Added so far ~235k – 540k ~7.7M – 17.9M about 6 to 7% on the full-vision subtotal

Phased entry

A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly 1.7M to 2.9M USD (~57M to 95M THB):

  • Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
  • Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
  • Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full metrology deferred
  • Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
  • Galvanics, automated presses, full metrology, and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions

The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for exactly this reason.

What moves the number

  • BOI: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see boi.md)
  • Buy vs lease on land and building swings roughly 1.0M to 2.1M USD (~34M to 69M THB) of upfront capital, and also moves the launch date by about three quarters — see project-timeline.md
  • Biggest uncertainty bands: metrology (partly a choice of ambition), the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the automated presses (single unverified price point), and land
  • Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here. Revenue is mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see project-timeline.md). A 10% move in EUR/THB between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
  • Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in equipment-suppliers.md lists who to ask