grabowski
20c8d283d5
Currency - Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at 5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change. - Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs. - Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD. New documents - production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch 8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number, and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate. - project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028. Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather than at contract signature. First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok) - Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic. - Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes. - The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1. - Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a second data point exists. Corrections - Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the previous "40 to 55%" was not supported. - Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M to 38M. - README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
190 lines
9.0 KiB
Markdown
190 lines
9.0 KiB
Markdown
# Project Scale: Rough Numbers
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One-page sizing of the whole project. Everything here is a planning
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estimate derived from the session's vendor data and standard ratios;
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figures marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation yet. Update this
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page as real quotes and the site decision land.
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## Production capacity
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| Phase | Fleet | Rough output |
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|---|---|---|
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| Launch | 1 semi-auto press (Newbilt Single), 1 shift | ~90,000 to 135,000 records/yr |
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| Duplex | 2 semi-auto presses, 1 to 2 shifts | ~300,000 to 600,000 records/yr |
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| Mature | 2 semi-auto + 2 automated (50/50 fleet), 2 shifts | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr |
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Basis: the automated AD12 presses ~140 records/hour each (vendor datasheet);
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semi-automatic throughput is unpublished, assumed 60 to 80 records/hour per
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press with operator handling (estimate); 16 h/day, 300 days/yr, with
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realistic overall effectiveness of 60 to 70% applied. The theoretical
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ceiling of the mature fleet at 100% uptime is roughly 1.9 to 2.1 million
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records per year.
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**The 60–70% effectiveness assumption is worth challenging.** Newbilt
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publishes **≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime** for the Classic 12" automatic at
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a 28 s cycle (~128 records/h), and quotes ~30 s average for the Duplex.
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Even discounting the vendor's optimism and multiplying availability by
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yield by a realistic performance factor, that implies an OEE nearer 80%
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than 65% — which would make the capacity table here conservative by
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roughly a fifth to a third. Ask both press vendors for the **basis** of
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their uptime and yield figures (measured over what period, at what run
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length, counting which stoppages) as part of the re-quote. It is a free
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question and it moves the whole capacity model.
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## Building
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| Zone | Rough area |
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| Semi-auto press hall (Newbilt Duplex spec) | ~200 m² |
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| Automated press zone | ~100 to 150 m² |
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| Galvanics clean room + water treatment + chemical storage | ~80 to 150 m² |
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| Mastering and cutting room | ~40 to 60 m² |
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| Stamper prep | ~30 m² |
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| Packaging + finished goods warehouse | ~300 to 500 m² |
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| Utility rooms (boiler, compressor, chiller, electrical) | ~100 to 150 m² |
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| Offices, QC/listening, archive, IT, entrance | ~150 to 200 m² |
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| Circulation, walls, misc | ~150 to 250 m² |
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| **Total under roof** | **~1,200 to 1,700 m²** |
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The HVAC budget in the utilities CSV already assumes ~1,500 m² conditioned.
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Single story throughout: all heavy equipment needs ground-slab floor
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loading (multiple tons per m²).
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### Detached utility yard, parking, and what that moves
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The massing model puts the boiler and chiller in a **detached utility yard**
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alongside the main building rather than inside it, which is what the boiler's
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own-room requirement in [facility security](facility-security.md) and biomass
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fuel delivery both push toward:
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| | Area | Height |
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| Boiler hall | 66 m² | 6.0 m |
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| Biomass fuel store | 42 m² | 5.0 m |
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| Chiller room | 60 m² | 5.0 m |
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| Cooling tower (outdoor pad) | 10 m² | 3.5 m |
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| Flue stack | — | 14 m |
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Boiler plus chiller at 126 m² lands inside the 100 to 150 m² the zone table
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allows — but moving them out of the main shed frees that floor for
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production, so either the main building shrinks by ~126 m² or the program
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grows into it. Decide which before the building is priced.
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Staff parking is roofed, in the front yard clear of the loading route:
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**10 car bays** (25 × 6 m canopy) and **~30 scooter spaces** (14 × 5 m),
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carrying a further **~32 kWp** of PV on their canopies. At 4.1 m and 3.5 m
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they sit below the main building's 7.0 m low eave, so they cannot shade it.
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### Expansion headroom: a second building
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Tested against the candidate Mueang Chi parcel, in the massing model at
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`factory_building_rough.FCStd`. The whole zone table above fits inside one
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60 × 25 m building, so a second one is expansion **beyond** the current
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program — doubling pressing capacity, or moving finished goods out to free
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production floor — not a gap in it.
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| | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Total |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Footprint | 60 × 25 m — 1,500 m² | 45 × 38 m — 1,710 m² | 3,210 m² |
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| Roof PV | ~247 kWp | ~251 kWp | **~498 kWp** |
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| Tightest boundary clearance | 15.7 m | 3.0 m | |
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- **45 × 38 m is the sweet spot.** The plot narrows going south, so past
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~45 m of length the width falls away faster than length adds: 40 m gives
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1,607 m², 45 m gives 1,723 m², 50 m drops to 1,558 m², and beyond 65 m
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nothing useful fits.
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- **A 20 m yard** between the buildings covers fire separation and shared
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loading off the phase 1 circulation road.
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- **Roof form: two-bay sawtooth, shaded rows deliberately left empty.**
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A single 38 m monopitch would be the best solar answer — 28 panel rows,
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none shaded, ~17% more yield than what is drawn — but it needs a **13.7 m**
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high wall. The sawtooth holds the high side to **10.35 m**, at a cost: each
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bay falls toward ESE onto the next bay's 3.35 m riser, so the bottom rows
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sit in shadow (the lowest is blocked below a 53° sun profile angle). Those
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two rows on the first bay are left empty rather than populated, which
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trades ~8% of the roof's yield for clean strings, no mismatch losses, and
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a maintenance walkway. Building height won this trade; revisit it if
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cladding a 13.7 m wall turns out cheaper than the lost generation.
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A 7° single pitch (11.7 m high side) sits between the two if wanted.
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- **Coverage stays comfortable**: 3,210 m² is 39% of the deed area (34% of
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the mapped extent), well under the 50 to 60% typically allowed.
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- **The two roofs together clear 500 kWp**, which removes the need for the
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ground-mount solar assumed further down this page.
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Two caveats. Phase 2's tightest corner sits **3.0 m** from the boundary and
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must be checked against the local ผังเมือง setback rule before it is taken as
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real. And the plot's zoning for factory use is still unverified — that gates
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phase 1 every bit as much as phase 2.
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## Land: factory plot
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Industrial plots typically allow 50 to 60% building coverage, and the site
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needs truck access and turning, parking, the outdoor cooling tower, the
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separated BESS enclosure, possible ground-mount solar, and expansion room.
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- Minimum workable: **~4 rai** (6,400 m²)
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- Comfortable with expansion and ground-mount solar: **~6 to 8 rai**
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(9,600 to 12,800 m²)
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Separate asset: the **60 rai** forestry-classified parcel for coppice
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fuelwood (see [biomass](biomass.md)), pending its title check. It is a fuel
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plantation, not a factory site candidate unless the classification allows
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conversion, which forestry land generally does not.
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## Electrical scale
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| Load | Rough figure |
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| Pressing machinery (semi-auto line + 2 automated presses) | ~70 to 80 kW installed |
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| Process chiller (250 kW cooling) | ~80 to 125 kW electrical |
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| Whole-factory HVAC | ~100 to 200 kW peak (estimate) |
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| Electric steam boiler (if chosen over biomass/LPG) | ~300 kW |
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| Compressed air, lighting, IT, misc | ~30 to 50 kW |
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| **Plant peak demand** | **~300 to 450 kW without electric boiler; ~600 to 750 kW with it** |
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Grid connection: a medium-voltage connection with a transformer in the
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**500 to 1,000 kVA** class from PEA, sized by the boiler decision.
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## Solar and storage
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- Roof of a ~1,500 m² building fits roughly **150 to 200 kWp**; reaching the
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illustrative 300 kWp in the utilities CSV needs carport or ground-mount
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on the plot (about 1 rai of ground per additional 100 kWp, estimate)
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- Northern Thailand yield ~1,400 to 1,500 kWh/kWp/yr, so 300 kWp produces
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roughly **420 to 450 MWh/yr**
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- Plant consumption at mature two-shift operation: roughly **1,000 to
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1,500 MWh/yr** without electric steam, up to **~2,500 MWh/yr** with it
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(estimate), so 300 kWp covers on the order of **20 to 35%** of
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consumption; a bigger array shifts that up
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- Battery: **271 kWh** Gobel stack (peak shaving and ride-through, roughly
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two to three hours of the chiller's electrical draw)
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## Steam and fuel
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- Boiler: **400 kg/h at 10 bar / 180 °C** (~300 kW thermal)
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- If biomass: **~350 to 400 t/yr** air-dry wood at mature operation, of
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which the 60 rai coppice could supply **~80 to 135 t/yr**
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- If LPG: **~2.5 to 5 t** bulk tank on site (no gas pipeline in the North)
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## People
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Rough mature-operation headcount (estimate): 4 to 6 press/finishing
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operators per shift, 2 to 3 galvanics, 1 to 2 mastering/cutting engineers,
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1 to 2 QC, 2 maintenance, 3 to 5 admin/sales/logistics. Roughly **15 to 25
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people** across shifts at maturity, fewer than half that at launch.
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## Money (cross-references)
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Figures in USD and THB at 1 USD = 33 THB (5 August 2026); vendor quotes
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keep their original currency alongside.
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- Newbilt semi-auto line: **~USD 232k (~7.7M THB)**, from the June 2024
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quote of EUR 200,500 — expired, in
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[pressing-line](equipment/pressing-line.md)
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- Thai-sourced utilities, HVAC, racking, solar, BESS baseline: **~24M to
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42M THB (~USD 730k to 1.27M)**, detail in the
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[utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv)
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- Not yet priced: automated presses (indicative ~USD 340k each, unverified),
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galvanics line, mastering/cutting room, metrology, building
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construction/fit-out, land
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