Currency
- Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at
5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD.
EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change.
- Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent
alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs.
- Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD.
New documents
- production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch
8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house
galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number,
and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate.
- project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028.
Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to
commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the
repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be
over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather
than at contract signature.
First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok)
- Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one
Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic.
- Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes
to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per
unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes.
- The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as
an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit
floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and
it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open
question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1.
- Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and
one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a
second data point exists.
Corrections
- Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated
as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the
previous "40 to 55%" was not supported.
- Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M
to 38M.
- README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
Models the plot and everything on it in FreeCAD, and writes up the
decisions the modelling forced.
Parcel geometry is traced from the DOL LandsMaps cadastral polygon and
reconciled against that portal's own measured edge lengths (40.86 + 26.61
/ 166.81 / 42.48 + 14.94 / 152.46 m), which the trace reproduces to within
about 1% with 1.67 m of closure error over a 444 m perimeter. Note the
mapped extent comes out near 9,570 sqm against a deed area of 8,266 sqm,
a ~16% gap that needs a surveyor before any offer.
On the site: 60x25 m production building on a 10 degree monopitch, a
45x38 m phase-2 building, roof and carport PV, fire and raw water tanks,
a detached boiler/chiller utility yard, perimeter wall and gate, guard
house, roofed staff parking, and the loading and fire-access roads.
Docs:
- scale.md: expansion headroom for a second building, and the detached
utility yard, which frees ~126 sqm inside the main shed
- sustainability.md: roof orientation study (rotating the building for
solar gains under 1 point and costs 4 m of clearance, so it stays
aligned to the plot), and a new water supply section
- facility-security.md: fire water supply behind the existing
suppression design
Figures marked as estimates are planning-grade, not engineering
calculations; the PV module spec is a generic placeholder, and zoning for
factory use on this plot is still unverified.
grabowski