Launch plant (user, October 2026): one Duplex system and one Classic,
with cutting and galvanics in-house, everything in one capital round.
- scale.md: capacity table now launch plant 0.71-0.97M records/yr, the
second Duplex as a growth option; launch utilities (450-540 kg/h on
B-1/B-2, ~390 kW on 2 x 250 kW); calculator figure ~0.94M.
- pressing-line.md: launch plant section on top; five-press fleet kept as
the layout fleet the hall and backbone are built for.
- roadmap.md: long-lead orders for the launch plant, no bridge stampers
or outsourced cutting, commissioning order, what stays revenue-gated.
- revenue-model.md: operating picture of the launch plant: central
revenue ~3.75M USD, EBITDA ~1.6M, operating profit ~1.1M, payback ~4
yr on 216M THB, break-even ~0.3M records; adverse corner cannot cover
depreciation. Five-press table kept and labelled.
- fleet-calculator.html: start fleet 1 Duplex + 1 Classic, target 850k,
capex base 6.55M (cases 8.9 / 6.55 / 4.9M), Duplex beyond one, chiller
500 kW, imported machinery 2.3M, ladder from the launch plant.
- total-investment.md: superseded note updated.
Checked October 2026 on the investor's budget question. New
docs/suppliers/china-utilities.md: boiler makers (ZOZEN, Sitong,
Fangkuai, Taiguo, Yuanda, Yongxing, Taishan, Nobeth) with fit for 500
kg/h at 1.25 MPa, claimed certificates, Thai references and listing
prices; the Thai rules for an imported boiler (MR and MOI notification
B.E. 2549: ASME/JIS/EN or equivalent, certification-body verification,
once-through relief does not reach 10.5 bar, licensed controller, annual
inspection); compressor makers with Thai offices (Kaishan, Denair) and
sizing; hydraulic pump sets and accumulators (Huade, Yuci, Hengli, WMD,
Renowell, Inovance, NXQ makers), the shared-ring-main risks and Thai HPU
builders; duty and freight; open RFQs.
Result: about 2M THB at the midpoint (~2.5M with contingency), ~1 % of
the 216M target, mostly the boilers; Newbilt aggregates stay Newbilt's.
total-investment notes it and lists the uncosted central hydraulic
plant; utilities CSV gets the Chinese candidates and route estimates;
backlinks from equipment-suppliers, pressing-line, README.
Phased build list for steam, cooling and hydraulics (launch, Duplex 1,
Duplex 2, Classic, options): everything cheap to oversize and costly to
retrofit (rooms, pads, headers and ring mains with a valved branch per
press position, tanks, HX frame, feeders, one sequencer) is built for the
five-press fleet at launch; boilers, chillers and hydraulic pump sets come
in identical modules as presses arrive. The Single 2.1 aggregate is
proposed as the first central pump set; per-branch isolation and filters.
Rooms sized for four modules each (user decision, estimates until vendor
footprints): boiler hall ~18 x 9 m for four 500 kg/h positions (fired case,
AIX DZL0.5 body), open screened chiller compound ~12.5 x 10.8 m with four
pads (250 kW at 40 C ~ Carrier 30RB 080-090), ~40 m2 pump and HX room; the
cooling tower pad of the water-cooled concept is dropped. Yard 178 -> ~379
m2. Four boilers carry ~8 presses with N+1; four 250 kW chillers carry the
five presses with CH-4 as reserve and no growth position unless the pads
take the ~350 kW frame (RFQ option).
- scale.md: yard table and basis, utility phasing section
- pressing-line.md: hydraulics phasing and re-quote questions
- steam-cooling.html: B-4 position, phasing and rooms card, details, RFQ
questions (pw_sc_check clean)
- construction RFQ: yard table, sealed area 6,549 m2 (68 %)
- total-investment: added-scope row +73k to +122k USD (building rate on
the ~200 m2 the yard grows by)
- Payap parts model: yard rebuilt from Params (blr_n, blr_inst, ch_*,
bh_*, cy_*, pr_*), renders updated
New page docs/steam-cooling.html (site /demos/steam-cooling/): the
utility plant as a clickable process diagram. Steam side: raw water,
softener and dosing, feed tank with heat-pump feedwater recovery, feed
pumps, a bank of two 500 kg/h boilers (third for N+1 as an option),
separator and metering, optional accumulator, blowdown, the 10 bar
header with a valved, metered branch and trap per press, drip legs and
condensate return. Cooling side: Newbilt's press outlets are open (max.
2 bar), so returns drain to a warm tank, pass the heat pump, an optional
dry cooler and a plate heat exchanger to a cold buffer tank, and VFD
pumps feed the 20 to 25 C header at ~10 bar to every press, the
extruders and the central hydraulic oil cooler; the chiller loop
(three 250 kW air-cooled modules at 40 C ambient, fourth as option) stays
closed and clean. Galvanics cooling (12 to 20 C) is a separate circuit.
Operating cases (launch, Duplex system 1, five presses, one module down)
show demand against installed capacity; design basis with sources,
equipment schedule, RFQ questions. Static SVG, no per-frame work.
Design basis at Newbilt's per-machine figures: steam 750 to 900 kg/h,
cooling 652.5 kW (625 presses, 15 extruders, 12.5 hydraulics), 305 to
540 l/min circulating. Also found: Newbilt's 53 l/min at ~60 C out is
~140 kW, above its 125 kW peak; listed as a re-quote question.
Re-based in the same commit:
- scale.md: electrical table (chiller bank ~210 to 325 kW electrical,
plant peak ~430 to 700 kW, ~950 to 1,330 kW with electric steam),
grid 800 to 1,000 kVA (1,250 to 1,600 with electric steam, Schedule
4 past 1,000 kW), tariff 4.5M to 6.8M THB/yr, battery ~1 h of chiller
peak, boiler and chiller banks, biomass up to ~550 t/yr at 1.5 M
records, utilities money line.
- sustainability.md, biomass.md: same figures; electric steam 5.2M to
6.0M THB/yr mature, 1.6M to 1.8M early; fuel saving 4.0M to 5.4M.
- utilities CSV: boiler bank, chiller bank with HX and tanks, softener
and loop treatment re-sized; baseline 23.98M-41.63M -> 30.07M-51.33M.
- total-investment.md: re-size as an added-scope row (+185k / +294k
USD); headline 4.7M to 8.9M unchanged until the investment re-base.
- pressing-line, equipment-suppliers, facility-security, fleet
calculator (boiler 1000 kg/h, chiller 750 kW), plant page detail
texts; README, landing page, build.sh.
User, October 2026: calculations for the later business plan, starting
from 2 Duplex + 1 Classic at 3 records a minute per Duplex and 2 per
Classic, as an interactive tool on the website: pick the yearly output
and the share of splatter/specials, get the machine mix and all the
requirements (people, hydraulics, power, ...).
docs/fleet-calculator.html (single static page, no dependencies):
- target mode sizes the fleet (specials only on Duplex with its EX 35;
grow with Classics or with Duplex systems; start fleet as the floor);
fleet mode takes a fleet and gives its output at the specials share;
- output, capacity, utilisation and the mix bar per machine type;
- needs: people per shift and in total, galvanics operators, machines,
connected kVA and average kW, MWh/yr, central hydraulics (flow, motor,
oil, accumulator), steam, cooling and cooling water, compressed air,
press floor, room climate, compound, trim, titles, electroformed parts
and plating units; checks against the 400 kg/h boiler, 250 kW chiller
and the 870 m2 Payap press hall;
- ladder from the start fleet to a full Payap press hall, click to load;
- every assumption editable with its source (Newbilt Duplex site
requirements V14 and offer 240620-04, scale.md, galvanics.md, revenue
model, Payap model; estimates labelled), shareable link via the hash.
The Classic counts as one HRP 12 press plus one extruder until Newbilt
states figures (Toolex Alpha leaflet as a cross-check).
Site: DEMOS entry (/demos/fleet-calculator/) and landing-page entry.
README bullet and layout line; backlinks from scale.md (capacity) and
pressing-line.md (current plan).
User sketch, October 2026 (filed as docs/equipment/
duplex-cell-layout-sketch.png; arrangement only, the user notes it is not
to scale): operator in the middle, the two presses either side turned 45
degrees towards him, EX 50 and EX 35 side by side behind him, one trimmer
per cell in front on the left.
Sized from the Newbilt site requirements p. 10 (press ~0.9 m2, extruder
~0.5 m2, hydraulic aggregate ~1.0 m2, walk-around space, >= 60 cm to
walls, room height >= 2.5 m): cell ~5 x 3 m, 0.6 to 0.8 m between
machines; EX 35 and trimmer footprints are estimates. The layout drawing
the site requirements refer to on p. 11 is missing from our copy: ask
for it with the re-quote. README layout line for the sketch.
User, October 2026: special designs will need tens of colours, so the
compound store needs far more space, with maybe a few silos for black and
the standard colours; and the wall between stamper prep and galvanics is
to go.
- pressing-line: "Compound storage" bullet (colour store with pallet
racking, ~100 positions in the Payap model, estimate; outdoor silos
proposed; compound stays on the ground floor, ~160 to 270 t a year at
the mature fleet; sacks vs big bags decides the silo filling).
- galvanics: stamper prep open to galvanics, one clean zone.
User, October 2026: the presses run from one shared hydraulic supply
and one compressed-air supply, and the plant may add up to ten more
Newbilt Classics at some point.
- pressing-line: fleet table and intro (shared central supply), new
bullets on the shared supply and the expansion option, re-quote point
(central supply for the whole fleet, extendable, can the Classic run
from it), Hydraulics bullet now the plan.
- scale: "Expansion (option)" capacity row, ~4.7 to 5.8M records/yr on
the same basis, explicitly outside revenue model and investment;
utilities note: fifteen presses would need ~2.3 to 2.7 t/h steam and
up to ~1.9 MW cooling, a utility phase of its own.
Correction from the user: the two Duplex systems are not in the
two-extruder configuration. Each runs two HRP 12 presses from an EX 50
main extruder with an EX 35 auxiliary extruder beside it for a second
colour; the Classic stays. Fleet still five presses. Updated in
pressing-line (table, phasing, re-quote: EX 50 vs the VEX 50 of the 2024
quote, and whether one EX 50 keeps both presses at full rate), scale,
total investment (wording; estimates unchanged), roadmap item 4, README.
The current plan (user decision, October 2026) replaces the 50/50 target
(two semi-automatic presses and two Pheenix AD12s) with an all-Newbilt
fleet of five presses: two Duplex systems in Newbilt's two-extruder
configuration (two HRP 12 presses, an extruder each, one hydraulic unit)
and one Classic fully automatic press.
- pressing-line.md: new "Current plan" section (fleet table, what it
means, phasing from the Single 2.1 as the first half of system 1,
re-quote questions); site requirements per Duplex system.
- scale.md: capacity table and basis (368 to 448 records/h, ~1.06 to 1.5M
a year on two shifts, same range as before); pressing electrical row;
steam and cooling flagged, not re-based: five presses draw ~750 to 900
kg/h of steam and up to ~625 kW of cooling at Newbilt's per-press
figures, against the 400 kg/h / 250 kW sized for one Duplex.
- total-investment.md: fleet change as an added-scope row (system 2
~230k-300k and the Classic ~290k-460k, estimates; -60k / -160k against
the two blocks it replaces); headline unchanged until the re-base.
- roadmap items 4, 5 and 24, revenue model mature row, crane doc (the
Classic's weight now decides 5 t or 3.2 t), vendor landscape (AD12 is
the comparison for the Classic), README.
The business plan docx is not regenerated.
docs/equipment/pheenix-alpha/: the four Pheenix Alpha electroforming flyers
(2024: PASU silvering, PPPU pre-plating, PDPU dual-cell plating, PMPB
passivation bench), renamed from their download hashes.
docs/equipment/sibert/: the VSP, VSF and VSC technical specifications
(2021), plus Sibert's 2008-09 optical-disc SPS literature and the 2008
Blu-ray stamper characteristics paper in sps-optical-disc-2009/. Two
byte-identical duplicates in the download were dropped.
New docs/equipment/galvanics.md, the metal-path counterpart to
pressing-line.md: datasheet tables for both ranges and what they change.
Pheenix is a second turnkey galvanics vendor next to Digital Matrix and
can quote lacquer-to-record as one vendor; neither range includes water
treatment. Utilities from the sheets (~27 kVA connected per line, DI water,
12-20 C cooling water, extraction sizes), ~5.6 m2 of footprint, and a cell
count estimate (one PDPU at the low end, two at the high end). The Sibert
machines are single-phase, 200/250/600 kg on castors, centre manually and
list no data interface; the VSC locates on the punched hole; the finisher's
water carries nickel. Weights, cycle times, prices and mould fit are listed
as quote questions.
Backlinks and small updates: README (bullet, layout tree, vendor list),
roadmap items 6 and 23, vendor landscape, supplier map, exhibitor briefing
(on-file notes, Sibert three-phase question answered), digital factory
(Pheenix PLC data, Sibert data question, RFQ clause 5), quality automation
(hardness on the centre slug, BD paper as the acceptance-spec model),
sustainability (finisher water), total investment block label (numbers
unchanged), scale (galvanics feeder note), crane weight table, process
flow, pressing-line stamper-fit question, plant page detail lines.
docs/equipment/newbilt/flyers-2026/: the six 2026 product flyers
(Classic, Duplex, EX 35, Edge Trimmer, Granulator 400, Label Punch) and
the 2024 Classic print flyer, collected at the booth in Haarlem.
pressing-line.md gets a range table with the flyer figures and what they
change: Classic and Duplex share inserts (one mould family for a
Newbilt-only fleet, Classic now named as automated candidate next to the
Pheenix AD12), edge trim of 20 to 40 g per 12" 180 g record brackets the
~20 % regrind share, the Granulator 400 runs in batches, central
hydraulics is an option, and the EX 35 is not in the 2024 quote.
Sources disagree on the Classic's panel (two 21" vs one 10"), extruder
power (7.5 kW drive in the 2024 flyer vs 15 kW noted earlier) and 10"
support; recorded as re-quote points instead of picking one. Supplier
table and exhibitor briefing corrected to match and given Erwin Neubauer
as a second contact; plant page grinder detail cites the flyer figures.
Currency
- Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at
5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD.
EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change.
- Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent
alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs.
- Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD.
New documents
- production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch
8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house
galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number,
and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate.
- project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028.
Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to
commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the
repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be
over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather
than at contract signature.
First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok)
- Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one
Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic.
- Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes
to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per
unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes.
- The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as
an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit
floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and
it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open
question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1.
- Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and
one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a
second data point exists.
Corrections
- Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated
as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the
previous "40 to 55%" was not supported.
- Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M
to 38M.
- README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
- docs/process-flow.md: mermaid chart plus stage table of every check and
the three artist approval gates, from audio intake to fulfillment
- docs/process-flow.drawio with PNG and PDF exports
- pressing-line.md: floor must carry multiple tons per m2 in machine areas
- README: process-flow entry in document index and layout tree
grabowski