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Re-base scale, pressing line, roadmap, revenue model and calculator on the launch plant
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Launch plant (user, October 2026): one Duplex system and one Classic,
with cutting and galvanics in-house, everything in one capital round.

- scale.md: capacity table now launch plant 0.71-0.97M records/yr, the
  second Duplex as a growth option; launch utilities (450-540 kg/h on
  B-1/B-2, ~390 kW on 2 x 250 kW); calculator figure ~0.94M.
- pressing-line.md: launch plant section on top; five-press fleet kept as
  the layout fleet the hall and backbone are built for.
- roadmap.md: long-lead orders for the launch plant, no bridge stampers
  or outsourced cutting, commissioning order, what stays revenue-gated.
- revenue-model.md: operating picture of the launch plant: central
  revenue ~3.75M USD, EBITDA ~1.6M, operating profit ~1.1M, payback ~4
  yr on 216M THB, break-even ~0.3M records; adverse corner cannot cover
  depreciation. Five-press table kept and labelled.
- fleet-calculator.html: start fleet 1 Duplex + 1 Classic, target 850k,
  capex base 6.55M (cases 8.9 / 6.55 / 4.9M), Duplex beyond one, chiller
  500 kW, imported machinery 2.3M, ladder from the launch plant.
- total-investment.md: superseded note updated.
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docs/equipment/pressing-line.md
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@@ -1,6 +1,19 @@
# Pressing Line: Equipment Plan
## Current plan: an all-Newbilt fleet of five presses (October 2026)
## Launch plant: one Duplex system and one Classic (October 2026)
Decided (user, October 2026): the plant launches with **one Newbilt Duplex
system** (two HRP 12 presses, EX 50 main and EX 35 colour extruder) and
**one Newbilt Classic**, bought in one capital round with the galvanics,
stamper-prep and cutting room and commissioned in sequence
([total investment](../finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)).
That is ~0.71 to 0.97 million records a year on two shifts
([scale](../scale.md#production-capacity)). The second Duplex system below
is a growth option with its room, utility modules and ring-main tees
reserved, not part of the investment. The five-press fleet stays the
layout the hall and the utility backbone are built for.
## Layout fleet: an all-Newbilt fleet of five presses (October 2026)
Two **Newbilt Duplex** systems, each with two HRP 12 presses fed by an
**EX 50** main extruder with an **EX 35** auxiliary extruder beside it for
@@ -31,10 +44,10 @@ automated candidate). What it means:
service relationship. The single-vendor risk is the same one the Pheenix
path would have carried.
- **Phasing.** The Newbilt Single 2.1 system of the 2024 quote (one press,
one extruder) is the launch configuration and the first half of Duplex
system 1: its hydraulic aggregate is already sized for the second press.
The second press and the EX 35 complete system 1; system 2 and the
Classic complete the fleet ([scale](../scale.md) capacity table,
one extruder) is the first half of Duplex system 1: its hydraulic
aggregate is already sized for the second press. Since October 2026 the
launch plant buys the whole of system 1 (second press and EX 35) and the
Classic at once; system 2 is the growth step ([scale](../scale.md) capacity table,
[roadmap](../roadmap.md) item 24). The
[press fleet calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) works out the mix of
Duplex systems and Classics for a target output and specials share,
docs/finance/revenue-model.md
+69 -2
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@@ -575,7 +575,74 @@ base salaries in that way.
is likely, but price realisation and cost control each move the margin
by more than a third on their own
## Operating picture at full capacity
## Operating picture of the launch plant (October 2026)
The plant now launches with one Newbilt Duplex system and one Classic,
with cutting and galvanics in-house from the start
([total investment](total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)). Three
presses make ~0.71 to 0.97 million records a year on two shifts
([scale](../scale.md#production-capacity)), against 1.0 to 1.5 million for
the five-press fleet the full-capacity table below was built for. Same
method and the same three cases, with these changes (all estimates):
- **Volume** 0.71M / 0.84M / 0.97M records a year.
- **Direct payroll** stays at 3.7M to 5.4M THB a year (two shifts still
need the press, finishing, galvanics, QC and maintenance crews), so
labour per record rises to 0.12 / 0.16 / 0.23 USD and the direct cost to
1.34 / 1.98 / 2.65 USD.
- **Title services**: 200 / 300 / 400 titles at 580 / 1,155 / 1,730 USD,
60 to 70 % contribution after lacquers, styli and nickel. The middle
price is the per-title fee of the artist demos (37,836 THB).
- **Depreciation** on the launch plant: 8.9M USD over 10 years (adverse),
the 216M THB target (~6.55M USD) over 12.5 years (central), 4.9M USD
over 15 years (favourable).
- **Cash overheads** unchanged at 0.20M to 0.45M USD, paired high to
adverse.
| USD/yr | Adverse | Central | Favourable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Records | 0.71M | 0.84M | 0.97M |
| Blended price | 3.50 | 4.05 | 4.60 |
| Direct cost | 2.65 | 1.98 | 1.34 |
| Contribution per record | 0.85 | 2.07 | 3.26 |
| Pressing contribution | 0.60M | 1.74M | 3.17M |
| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M |
| **Total contribution** | **0.67M** | **1.96M** | **3.65M** |
| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
| **EBITDA** | **0.22M** | **1.63M** | **3.45M** |
| Depreciation | 0.89M | 0.52M | 0.33M |
| **Operating profit** | **-0.67M** | **1.11M** | **3.12M** |
| Revenue | 2.60M (~86M THB) | 3.75M (~124M THB) | 5.15M (~170M THB) |
| Payback on the launch capital (EBITDA, mature year) | never | ~4 yr (3.0 to 5.5 on 4.9M to 8.9M) | ~1.4 yr |
What it says:
- **The central case works on 216M THB**: EBITDA ~1.6M USD (~54M THB) a
year and operating profit ~1.1M USD (~37M THB) once the plant runs at
volume, and it breaks even on operating profit at about **0.3 million
records a year, a little over a third of capacity**.
- **The adverse corner cannot pay for itself at any volume the three
presses make**: it would need ~1.5 million records to cover
depreciation. It stacks the low price, the high cost, the high capital
and the high overheads at once; at the central cost and volume the
price that covers depreciation is only ~2.7 to 3.0 USD (~90 to 98 THB)
a record, below the low price assumed.
- **The caveats of the full-capacity table hold here too**: the central
EBITDA margin (~43 %) is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn,
because the direct cost table leaves out indirect labour, freight,
scrap above the allowance and commissions. Price realisation and
utilisation decide the result, and the ramp year is not in this table
(the ramp-up reserve in the investment covers it).
- Not modelled: cassette and CD-R lines, stamper supply to other
pressing plants, dropshipping fees. The solar PPA lever in the
investment would add its power price to the energy line instead of
capital.
## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
The fleet this table describes (two Duplex systems and a Classic) is now
a growth option; the launch plant is in the section above.
Built from the components above rather than asserted. The
[press fleet calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) runs the same P&L for
@@ -588,7 +655,7 @@ and nickel; a lacquer blank costs about **70 EUR** (team figure, October
2026), one per side, so ~160 USD a two-sided title before recuts. Cash overheads (admin, sales, insurance, facility running,
IT, professional fees, marketing) are estimated at **200–450k USD/yr**
and deliberately paired high-to-adverse. Depreciation is the 4.7–8.9M
capex over 10–15 years.
capex of the earlier full vision over 10–15 years.
| USD/yr | Adverse | Central | Favourable |
|---|---|---|---|
docs/finance/total-investment.md
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@@ -129,8 +129,10 @@ target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)
The five-press full vision below is superseded by the launch plant above.
It stays until the documents that quote its 4.7M to 8.9M USD total (README,
roadmap, revenue model, business plan) are re-based on the launch plant.
Scale, pressing line, roadmap, revenue model (which now has a launch-plant
operating picture) and the fleet calculator are re-based on the launch
plant; the business plan is next. It stays for the record of how the
blocks were built.
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
docs/fleet-calculator.html
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@@ -165,8 +165,8 @@ document.documentElement.setAttribute("data-theme",t);})();
Set the records you want a year and the share of splatter and other
specials. The calculator sizes the press fleet from Newbilt Duplex systems
(two HRP 12 presses, an EX 50 and an EX 35 colour extruder each) and Newbilt
Classic automatic presses, starting from the planned two Duplex systems and
one Classic. It then lists what that fleet needs: people, power, central
Classic automatic presses, starting from the launch plant: one Duplex system
and one Classic. It then lists what that fleet needs: people, power, central
hydraulics, steam, cooling, compressed air, floor, compound and stampers.
Vendor figures are from Newbilt's Duplex site requirements and offer; the
rest are planning figures and estimates from the CNX Vinyl documents. Every
@@ -301,7 +301,7 @@ document.documentElement.setAttribute("data-theme",t);})();
<section class="card">
<h2>From small to fully equipped</h2>
<p class="note" style="margin-top:0">Fleets from the start fleet to a full Payap press hall (about 870 m²:
<p class="note" style="margin-top:0">Fleets from the launch plant to a full Payap press hall (about 870 m²:
the two Duplex bays plus the Classic and ten more Classic positions, or the same floor
with more Duplex systems), at the current settings. Click a row to load it.</p>
<div class="tscroll"><table id="ladT"></table></div>
@@ -334,7 +334,7 @@ document.documentElement.setAttribute("data-theme",t);})();
states them. A real plant staggers cycles, so the boiler and chiller can be sized lower once
a utility engineer has the cycle data.</p>
<p><b>Money.</b> Prices, per-record costs, wages, overheads and depreciation come from
finance/revenue-model.md, capex from finance/total-investment.md (the start fleet plan plus each
finance/revenue-model.md, capex from finance/total-investment.md (the launch plant plus each
Duplex system or Classic added or removed), the electricity tariff and PV from scale.md, the biomass
heat price from biomass.md. Electricity and steam follow the fleet: machines, chiller and compressors
at the hours run, steam from the presses' running time, plus an estimated base load for the rest of
@@ -369,8 +369,8 @@ document.documentElement.setAttribute("data-theme",t);})();
"use strict";
// ---------------------------------------------------------------- inputs
const S0 = {
mode: "target", target: 1000000, spec: 20, grow: "classic", dMin: 2, cMin: 1,
dFleet: 2, cFleet: 1, shifts: 2, hrs: 8, days: 300, eff: 65, rateD: 3, rateC: 2, specF: 100,
mode: "target", target: 850000, spec: 20, grow: "classic", dMin: 1, cMin: 1,
dFleet: 1, cFleet: 1, shifts: 2, hrs: 8, days: 300, eff: 65, rateD: 3, rateC: 2, specF: 100,
priceStd: 3.8, premSpec: 1.15, titleFee: 1155, cur: "USD", boi: "on", exportShare: 70,
};
// [group, id, label, value, unit, kind, source]
@@ -444,13 +444,13 @@ grp("Money", [
["thbUsd", "THB per USD", 33, "THB", "doc", "revenue-model.md and total-investment.md, FX of 5 August 2026"],
["usdEur", "USD per EUR", 1.155, "USD", "doc", "revenue-model.md"],
["overheads", "Cash overheads a year", 330000, "USD", "doc", "revenue-model.md: 200 to 450k (admin, sales, insurance, facility, IT, fees, marketing)"],
["capexBase", "Capex, start fleet plan", 6800000, "USD", "doc", "total-investment.md: 4.7 to 8.9M full vision; added scope not yet rolled up"],
["capexD", "Capex per Duplex system beyond two", 265000, "USD", "doc", "total-investment.md: system 2 ~230 to 300k, estimate"],
["capexBase", "Capex, launch plant", 6550000, "USD", "doc", "total-investment.md launch plant (October 2026): 4.9 to 8.9M USD, 161 to 292M THB; the investor target 216M THB"],
["capexD", "Capex per Duplex system beyond one", 265000, "USD", "doc", "total-investment.md: system 2 ~230 to 300k, estimate"],
["capexC", "Capex per Classic beyond one", 375000, "USD", "doc", "total-investment.md: ~290 to 460k, no Newbilt price on file"],
["deprYears", "Depreciation period", 12.5, "years", "doc", "revenue-model.md: 10 to 15 years"],
]);
grp("BOI and imports", [
["impMach", "Imported machinery in the start-fleet capex", 2750000, "USD", "doc", "total-investment.md block midpoints at vendor prices: presses 1.0M, galvanics 485k, Sibert 250k, lathe system 435k, metrology 580k; added presses count as imported"],
["impMach", "Imported machinery in the launch-plant capex", 2300000, "USD", "doc", "total-investment.md launch plant, block midpoints at vendor prices: Duplex 360k, Classic 375k, galvanics 485k, Sibert 250k, Sillitoe SDMS 125k, metrology 580k, ZLD ~120k; added presses count as imported"],
["dutyMach", "Import duty on that machinery without BOI", 5, "%", "est", "Estimate: Thai MFN averages 4.1 % on HS 8477 plastics machinery (customs-compliance.ai, March 2026), 0 to 10 % across HS 84; set per line once the HS codes are known"],
["vatRate", "VAT", 7, "%", "doc", "Thai VAT; with BOI duty exemption the import VAT is exempt too (Revenue Department, BOI OSOS FAQ; boi.md)"],
["pvcImp", "Share of PVC compound imported", 100, "%", "est", "Estimate: record-grade compound from the specialist suppliers"],
@@ -507,7 +507,7 @@ grp("Workwear: Engelbert Strauss for all staff", [
]);
grp("Planned plant, for the checks", [
["boiler", "Steam boiler bank", 1000, "kg/h", "doc", "steam-cooling.html and scale.md: 2 × 500 kg/h modules (proposal, estimate)"],
["chiller", "Chiller bank", 750, "kW", "doc", "steam-cooling.html and scale.md: 3 × 250 kW air-cooled modules (proposal, estimate)"],
["chiller", "Chiller bank", 500, "kW", "doc", "scale.md launch plant: 2 × 250 kW air-cooled modules (CH-1, CH-2; proposal, estimate); compound built for four"],
["hall", "Payap press hall", 870, "m²", "doc", "site-candidates.md, Payap scenario model"],
]);
const A0 = Object.fromEntries(AS.map(r => [r[1], r[3]]));
@@ -517,9 +517,9 @@ const CASES = {
adverse: { S: { priceStd: 3.4, premSpec: 0.6, titleFee: 580 },
A: { pvcPrice: 2.9, labelCost: 0.09, sleeveCost: 0.17, jacketCost: 0.92, shrinkCost: 0.03, maintCost: 0.23, overheads: 450000, capexBase: 8900000, heatPrice: 0.9, deprYears: 10 } },
central: { S: { priceStd: 3.8, premSpec: 1.15, titleFee: 1155 },
A: { pvcPrice: 2.3, labelCost: 0.06, sleeveCost: 0.13, jacketCost: 0.66, shrinkCost: 0.025, maintCost: 0.17, overheads: 330000, capexBase: 6800000, heatPrice: 0.7, deprYears: 12.5 } },
A: { pvcPrice: 2.3, labelCost: 0.06, sleeveCost: 0.13, jacketCost: 0.66, shrinkCost: 0.025, maintCost: 0.17, overheads: 330000, capexBase: 6550000, heatPrice: 0.7, deprYears: 12.5 } },
favourable: { S: { priceStd: 4.25, premSpec: 1.7, titleFee: 1730 },
A: { pvcPrice: 1.75, labelCost: 0.03, sleeveCost: 0.09, jacketCost: 0.4, shrinkCost: 0.02, maintCost: 0.12, overheads: 200000, capexBase: 4700000, heatPrice: 0.5, deprYears: 15 } },
A: { pvcPrice: 1.75, labelCost: 0.03, sleeveCost: 0.09, jacketCost: 0.4, shrinkCost: 0.02, maintCost: 0.12, overheads: 200000, capexBase: 4900000, heatPrice: 0.5, deprYears: 15 } },
};
function caseNow() {
for (const k in CASES) {
@@ -529,7 +529,7 @@ function caseNow() {
return "";
}
const LADDER = [
["Start fleet (current plan)", 2, 1], ["Step 1", 2, 3], ["Step 2", 2, 5], ["Step 3", 2, 8],
["Launch plant", 1, 1], ["Second Duplex", 2, 1], ["Step 1", 2, 3], ["Step 2", 2, 5], ["Step 3", 2, 8],
["Full hall, Classic-led", 2, 11], ["Full hall, mixed", 4, 7], ["Full hall, specials-led", 6, 3],
];
@@ -679,7 +679,7 @@ function econ(r, b, boiOn = S.boi !== "off") {
`${f1(h.prod * A.wwProdYr)} production and ${f1(h.office * A.wwOffYr)} office kits a year, shipping and Thai duty included`);
const sum = gs => L.filter(l => gs.includes(l[0])).reduce((a, l) => a + l[2], 0);
const direct = L.reduce((a, l) => a + l[2], 0), contrib = rev - direct, ebitda = contrib - A.overheads;
const fleetDelta = (r.D - 2) * A.capexD + (r.C - 1) * A.capexC;
const fleetDelta = (r.D - 1) * A.capexD + (r.C - 1) * A.capexC;
const imp = Math.max(0, A.impMach + fleetDelta);
const dutyM = boiOn ? 0 : imp * A.dutyMach / 100, vatM = boiOn ? 0 : (imp + dutyM) * A.vatRate / 100;
const capex = A.capexBase + fleetDelta + dutyM, depr = capex / Math.max(1, A.deprYears);
docs/roadmap.md
+28 -13
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@@ -90,14 +90,19 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
certificate issuance
12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only
with land privileges under BOI)
13. Order long-lead items: mastering lathe (Agnew or Sillitoe, both built
to order, or second-hand through the contacts OMS named, see
[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)),
stamper-prep machines, first utility packages
14. Engage Stamper Discs for the bridge-stamper relationship with written
turnaround SLAs, and settle where lacquers are cut meanwhile: SST in
Frankfurt already cuts for Poy Records and offered help after Haarlem
([vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md#lacquer-cutting-service-schallplatten-schneid-technik-germany))
13. Order the launch plant's long-lead items (October 2026: everything in
one capital round, see
[total investment](finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)):
the Sillitoe SDMS lathe (built to order; see
[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)), the Pheenix
galvanics line, the Sibert stamper-prep line, the Duplex system and the
Classic, and the first two boiler and chiller modules
14. No bridge stampers and no outsourced cutting in the launch plant
(decided October 2026). Stamper Discs and SST in Frankfurt (which
already cuts for Poy Records and offered help after Haarlem,
[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md#lacquer-cutting-service-schallplatten-schneid-technik-germany))
stay contacts for overflow and for a slipping commissioning, not a
plan
## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)
@@ -118,9 +123,11 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the
equipment, not after it
## Phase 4: Launch (pressing with bridge stampers)
## Phase 4: Launch (the whole chain in-house)
19. First test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
19. Commission in sequence: cutting room and galvanics first (the presses
need their stampers), then the Duplex system, then the Classic. First
test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the
regional pitch. Fan-funded campaigns on the
[artist platform](artist-platform.md) open only after these first
@@ -130,7 +137,12 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)
22. Duplex expansion (second press and extruder are already quoted options)
22. Since October 2026 the Duplex system 1, the galvanics line, the
stamper prep, the cutting room and the Classic are in the launch plant
(Phases 2 to 4); items 23, 24 and 27 below are kept for the record.
What stays revenue-gated: the second Duplex system, further Classics,
the parts of the metrology stack bought from revenue, the biomass
boiler and the phase 2 building
23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep; see
[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)) with the
zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
@@ -157,5 +169,8 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
The phased entry (~1.7M to 2.9M USD) is the default path; the full vision
(~4.7M to 8.9M USD) is reached through it, not instead of it.
Since October 2026 the plant launches with everything in one capital
round (~161M to 292M THB, target ~216M with the levers in
[total investment](finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026));
the gates still come before the round is spent, and the growth options
(second Duplex, more Classics) are funded from revenue.
docs/scale.md
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@@ -9,20 +9,34 @@ page as real quotes and the site decision land.
| Phase | Fleet | Rough output |
|---|---|---|
| Launch | 1 semi-auto press (Newbilt Single, the first half of Duplex system 1), 1 shift | ~90,000 to 135,000 records/yr |
| Duplex | 2 semi-auto presses (Duplex system 1: EX 50 main and EX 35 colour extruder), 1 to 2 shifts | ~175,000 to 540,000 records/yr |
| Mature | 4 semi-auto (two Duplex systems, each EX 50 + EX 35) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), 2 shifts | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr |
| Expansion (option) | the mature fleet + up to 10 more Newbilt Classics, 2 shifts | ~4.7 to 5.8 million records/yr (estimate) |
| Launch plant (decided October 2026) | 2 semi-auto (Duplex system 1: EX 50 main + EX 35 colour extruder) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), commissioned in sequence, 2 shifts at volume | ~0.71 to 0.97 million records/yr |
| Growth option: second Duplex | 4 semi-auto (two Duplex systems) + 1 Classic, 2 shifts; room reserved, not in the investment | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr |
| Expansion (option) | the five-press fleet + up to 10 more Newbilt Classics, 2 shifts | ~4.7 to 5.8 million records/yr (estimate) |
The [press fleet calculator](fleet-calculator.html) sizes the fleet for
any yearly output and specials share, with the people and utilities it
needs; at the user's planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex
system, 2 per Classic, 65 % effectiveness, two shifts) the start fleet
makes ~1.5 million records a year and a full Payap press hall (two Duplex
systems and eleven Classics) ~5.2 million.
system, 2 per Classic, 65 % effectiveness, two shifts) the launch plant
makes ~0.94 million records a year, the five-press fleet ~1.5 million and
a full Payap press hall (two Duplex systems and eleven Classics) ~5.2
million.
Basis: the current fleet plan of October 2026
([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)). The automated Classic
**Launch plant (October 2026).** The plant launches with one Duplex
system and one Classic, with cutting and galvanics in-house
([total investment](finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)).
Its utilities: steam 450 to 540 kg/h on boiler modules B-1 and B-2, cooling
~390 kW at the hot-afternoon peak on chillers CH-1 and CH-2 (2 × 250 kW),
with the boiler hall, chiller compound and ring mains built for the
larger fleet as in [utility phasing](#utility-phasing-backbone-once-modules-with-the-presses).
The building, electrical and steam sections below still size the
five-press fleet that the backbone is built for.
Basis: the fleet plan of October 2026
([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)). Launch plant: two
semi-automatic presses at 60 to 80 records/hour each plus the Classic at
~128/hour, 248 to 288 records/hour, with 60 to 70 % effectiveness ~149 to
202 an hour, 0.71 to 0.97 million a year on the same 16 h and 300 days.
Five-press fleet: The automated Classic
~128 records/hour (28 s cycle, vendor flyer); semi-automatic throughput is
unpublished, assumed 60 to 80 records/hour per press with operator
handling (estimate); 16 h/day, 300 days/yr, with realistic overall