Plan B chosen; stale mirrors fixed; business plan rebuilt
User, 19 Oct 2026: the main investor wants to go with Plan B; fix the stale docs the deck build found. - total-investment.md "Two plans" and README: the main investor wants Plan B (~217M THB, labelled ~215M); Plan A stays as the comparison. - boi.md: duty without BOI on the launch plant's ~2.3M USD of imported machinery (~0.11M duty, ~0.17M import VAT), as total-investment states; the calculator's ~2.5M includes the water treatment; the old ~2.75M was the superseded start fleet. - roadmap.md item 2: the BOI application stacks automation, R&D and the battery if it qualifies; solar lost promotion on 1 July 2025. - project-timeline.md: October re-read note (launch plant with galvanics commissioned first, long lease of raw land, Plan B price; calendar not redrawn); galvanics rows no longer "Phase 5". - revenue-model.md: blended price at 60 % specials ~124 to 174 THB (3.76 to 5.27 USD), the Thai gap "three to six times". - site-candidates.md, scale.md: utility yard with air-cooled chillers, no cooling tower; electroplating permission needed from the start. - Business plan: working capital 4.5M to 9.6M THB (as total-investment); A and B docx and PDF rebuilt (63 pages each, TOC checked).
This commit is contained in:
1 parent
40c049ae15
commit
995bb4ba60
13 files changed
+62
-34
No files matched your search
@@ -11,6 +11,17 @@ Anchored at **August 2026**. Every duration is an estimate; the ones
|
||||
that are not in this repo at all are flagged as such, and one of them
|
||||
governs the whole schedule.
|
||||
|
||||
**Re-read in October 2026; the calendar itself is not redrawn yet.**
|
||||
Three things changed after it was drawn: the plant now launches with the
|
||||
whole chain in one capital round (one Newbilt Duplex system and one
|
||||
Classic, the Pheenix galvanics line, the Sibert line and the cutting
|
||||
room), commissioned in sequence with galvanics **first**, not as a later
|
||||
phase; the site strategy is a long lease of raw land
|
||||
([site candidates](site-candidates.md)), not a purchase; and the price is
|
||||
the investor's Plan B, ~217M THB, labelled ~215M
|
||||
([total investment](finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026)).
|
||||
The USD figures and the land rows below are the August ones.
|
||||
|
||||
## The answer
|
||||
|
||||
**First paying release lands around Q4 2028 to mid-2029 — roughly 27 to
|
||||
@@ -143,9 +154,9 @@ Nothing else on this page is worth six months. This is.
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Land purchase | Design start, ~Q1 2027 | ~4 months | Zoning fails and a new site is needed (~6 months reset) |
|
||||
| Phase 1 construction | Machinery arrival, ~Q3 2028 | ~3–5 months | Soft-paddy soil forces piling, or permits stall |
|
||||
| Ror.Ngor.4 factory licence | First production, Q4 2028 | ~4 months | Galvanics effluent permitting is raised early, but galvanics is Phase 5, so keep it out of the Phase 1 licence scope |
|
||||
| Ror.Ngor.4 factory licence | First production, Q4 2028 | ~4 months | Galvanics effluent permitting stalls it: galvanics is in the launch plant and commissioned first, so it is in the licence scope from the first filing |
|
||||
| Solar and BESS | Fit-out, ~Q2 2028 | large | Gobel lead time is documented at 50–60 days; not a risk |
|
||||
| Hiring and training | Commissioning, ~Q3 2028 | ~2 months | Galvanics process expertise — "the hardest skill to hire" per `equipment-suppliers.md`, but again, Phase 5 |
|
||||
| Hiring and training | Commissioning, ~Q3 2028 | ~2 months | Galvanics process expertise, "the hardest skill to hire" per `equipment-suppliers.md`, is needed first: galvanics is commissioned before the presses |
|
||||
|
||||
Construction has the thinnest float of anything with a real duration,
|
||||
and it is thin for a reason: it cannot start until the land is bought,
|
||||
@@ -189,7 +200,7 @@ only money:
|
||||
| Slab rating, 3 t/m² | Must be verified in an existing building; most Thai light-industrial stock will not have it | Specified from the start |
|
||||
| 500–1,000 kVA supply | Existing connection, or a PEA upgrade with its own lead time | Designed in |
|
||||
| BOI land ownership privilege | Unused | Used |
|
||||
| Galvanics effluent, Phase 5 | Landlord's permission needed, and may not be given | Ours to permit |
|
||||
| Galvanics effluent (launch plant) | Landlord's permission needed, and may not be given | Ours to permit |
|
||||
|
||||
Leasing frees a seven-figure sum but, on this page's own critical path,
|
||||
**cannot pull the launch forward on its own** — the press chain governs,
|
||||
@@ -198,11 +209,12 @@ item that is not on the critical path does not move the end date. Leasing
|
||||
only advances the launch if the **press order** also moves forward, which
|
||||
is the BOI question above; the two are one lever, not two. The cost is a
|
||||
building that probably compromises on the two hardest requirements (floor
|
||||
loading and power) and may block the Phase 5 galvanics line entirely.
|
||||
Locating in the Northern Region Industrial Estate, which
|
||||
[boi.md](boi.md) already favours for its shared central effluent
|
||||
treatment, is the version of leasing that keeps the
|
||||
galvanics option alive.
|
||||
loading and power) and may block the galvanics line, which the launch
|
||||
plant needs from the start, entirely. Locating in the Northern Region
|
||||
Industrial Estate, which [boi.md](boi.md) already favours for its shared
|
||||
central effluent treatment, is the version of leasing an existing
|
||||
building that keeps the galvanics line possible. (Decided since: a long
|
||||
lease of raw land with a purpose-built plant, which keeps both.)
|
||||
|
||||
**This is an unresolved fork, not a decision I can make.** It is worth
|
||||
resolving before more design effort goes into the parametric model,
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in new issue
Block a user