Plan B chosen; stale mirrors fixed; business plan rebuilt

User, 19 Oct 2026: the main investor wants to go with Plan B; fix the
stale docs the deck build found.

- total-investment.md "Two plans" and README: the main investor wants
  Plan B (~217M THB, labelled ~215M); Plan A stays as the comparison.
- boi.md: duty without BOI on the launch plant's ~2.3M USD of imported
  machinery (~0.11M duty, ~0.17M import VAT), as total-investment states;
  the calculator's ~2.5M includes the water treatment; the old ~2.75M
  was the superseded start fleet.
- roadmap.md item 2: the BOI application stacks automation, R&D and the
  battery if it qualifies; solar lost promotion on 1 July 2025.
- project-timeline.md: October re-read note (launch plant with
  galvanics commissioned first, long lease of raw land, Plan B price;
  calendar not redrawn); galvanics rows no longer "Phase 5".
- revenue-model.md: blended price at 60 % specials ~124 to 174 THB
  (3.76 to 5.27 USD), the Thai gap "three to six times".
- site-candidates.md, scale.md: utility yard with air-cooled chillers,
  no cooling tower; electroplating permission needed from the start.
- Business plan: working capital 4.5M to 9.6M THB (as total-investment);
  A and B docx and PDF rebuilt (63 pages each, TOC checked).
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@@ -11,6 +11,17 @@ Anchored at **August 2026**. Every duration is an estimate; the ones
that are not in this repo at all are flagged as such, and one of them
governs the whole schedule.
**Re-read in October 2026; the calendar itself is not redrawn yet.**
Three things changed after it was drawn: the plant now launches with the
whole chain in one capital round (one Newbilt Duplex system and one
Classic, the Pheenix galvanics line, the Sibert line and the cutting
room), commissioned in sequence with galvanics **first**, not as a later
phase; the site strategy is a long lease of raw land
([site candidates](site-candidates.md)), not a purchase; and the price is
the investor's Plan B, ~217M THB, labelled ~215M
([total investment](finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026)).
The USD figures and the land rows below are the August ones.
## The answer
**First paying release lands around Q4 2028 to mid-2029 — roughly 27 to
@@ -143,9 +154,9 @@ Nothing else on this page is worth six months. This is.
|---|---|---|---|
| Land purchase | Design start, ~Q1 2027 | ~4 months | Zoning fails and a new site is needed (~6 months reset) |
| Phase 1 construction | Machinery arrival, ~Q3 2028 | ~3–5 months | Soft-paddy soil forces piling, or permits stall |
| Ror.Ngor.4 factory licence | First production, Q4 2028 | ~4 months | Galvanics effluent permitting is raised early, but galvanics is Phase 5, so keep it out of the Phase 1 licence scope |
| Ror.Ngor.4 factory licence | First production, Q4 2028 | ~4 months | Galvanics effluent permitting stalls it: galvanics is in the launch plant and commissioned first, so it is in the licence scope from the first filing |
| Solar and BESS | Fit-out, ~Q2 2028 | large | Gobel lead time is documented at 50–60 days; not a risk |
| Hiring and training | Commissioning, ~Q3 2028 | ~2 months | Galvanics process expertise — "the hardest skill to hire" per `equipment-suppliers.md`, but again, Phase 5 |
| Hiring and training | Commissioning, ~Q3 2028 | ~2 months | Galvanics process expertise, "the hardest skill to hire" per `equipment-suppliers.md`, is needed first: galvanics is commissioned before the presses |
Construction has the thinnest float of anything with a real duration,
and it is thin for a reason: it cannot start until the land is bought,
@@ -189,7 +200,7 @@ only money:
| Slab rating, 3 t/m² | Must be verified in an existing building; most Thai light-industrial stock will not have it | Specified from the start |
| 500–1,000 kVA supply | Existing connection, or a PEA upgrade with its own lead time | Designed in |
| BOI land ownership privilege | Unused | Used |
| Galvanics effluent, Phase 5 | Landlord's permission needed, and may not be given | Ours to permit |
| Galvanics effluent (launch plant) | Landlord's permission needed, and may not be given | Ours to permit |
Leasing frees a seven-figure sum but, on this page's own critical path,
**cannot pull the launch forward on its own** — the press chain governs,
@@ -198,11 +209,12 @@ item that is not on the critical path does not move the end date. Leasing
only advances the launch if the **press order** also moves forward, which
is the BOI question above; the two are one lever, not two. The cost is a
building that probably compromises on the two hardest requirements (floor
loading and power) and may block the Phase 5 galvanics line entirely.
Locating in the Northern Region Industrial Estate, which
[boi.md](boi.md) already favours for its shared central effluent
treatment, is the version of leasing that keeps the
galvanics option alive.
loading and power) and may block the galvanics line, which the launch
plant needs from the start, entirely. Locating in the Northern Region
Industrial Estate, which [boi.md](boi.md) already favours for its shared
central effluent treatment, is the version of leasing an existing
building that keeps the galvanics line possible. (Decided since: a long
lease of raw land with a purpose-built plant, which keeps both.)
**This is an unresolved fork, not a decision I can make.** It is worth
resolving before more design effort goes into the parametric model,