diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 734f00d..2ca9e07 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -78,7 +78,8 @@ steps are open planning items. ([two plans](docs/finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026)): **Plan A, ~182M THB** (~2M above 180M since steam went biomass), the launch plant with six cost levers, and **Plan B, ~217M THB**, the same - launch plant with everything in. + launch plant with everything in. **The main investor wants to go with + Plan B** (19 October 2026); the investor deck leads with it. Chinese boilers, compressor and hydraulics save about 2M THB of that ([Chinese suppliers](docs/suppliers/china-utilities.md)). The business plan is re-based on it (draft 0.2). diff --git a/docs/boi.md b/docs/boi.md index 0af5bff..bcfdc01 100644 --- a/docs/boi.md +++ b/docs/boi.md @@ -59,14 +59,18 @@ the battery, if it qualifies), not on "we press plastic discs." for VAT. What it is worth: the capex blocks in [total investment](finance/total-investment.md) are vendor prices without duty or VAT, so they already assume promotion. Without it, the - ~2.75M USD of imported machinery at the start fleet (presses, galvanics, - Sibert, lathe system, metrology; block midpoints) would carry import duty, - roughly 5 % (Thailand's MFN averages 4.1 % on HS 8477 plastics - machinery, 0 to 10 % across HS 84; estimate until the HS codes are set), - ~0.14M USD, and 7 % import VAT, ~0.2M USD paid at the border and only - recovered later as input tax, mostly as a refund claim because exports - are zero-rated. The [press fleet calculator](fleet-calculator.html) - shows both cases. + ~2.3M USD of imported machinery in the launch plant (presses, galvanics + line, Sibert, cutting room, metrology; block midpoints, as + [total investment](finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026) + states it) would carry import duty, roughly 5 % (Thailand's MFN averages + 4.1 % on HS 8477 plastics machinery, 0 to 10 % across HS 84; estimate + until the HS codes are set), ~0.11M USD, and 7 % import VAT, ~0.17M USD + paid at the border and only recovered later as input tax, mostly as a + refund claim because exports are zero-rated. The + [plant and business plan calculator](fleet-calculator.html) shows both + cases; its BOI switch also counts the water treatment (ZLD/DI) as + imported, ~2.5M USD at the midpoint (figures re-based October 2026; the + earlier ~2.75M was the superseded start fleet). - **100% foreign ownership** of the promoted manufacturing company, overriding Foreign Business Act restrictions for the promoted activity - **Land ownership** for the promoted operation despite foreign diff --git a/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.docx b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.docx index 9566351..32be408 100644 Binary files a/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.docx and b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.docx differ diff --git a/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.pdf b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.pdf index 384896b..521200e 100644 Binary files a/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.pdf and b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A.pdf differ diff --git a/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.docx b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.docx index a841b56..0981c65 100644 Binary files a/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.docx and b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.docx differ diff --git a/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.pdf b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.pdf index 626bbf1..2d387d8 100644 Binary files a/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.pdf and b/docs/business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.pdf differ diff --git a/docs/business-plan/build/content_c.py b/docs/business-plan/build/content_c.py index f396fdc..4cc6e3d 100644 --- a/docs/business-plan/build/content_c.py +++ b/docs/business-plan/build/content_c.py @@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ def _block_rows(): ["Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its " "quoted 5 days)", "150k to 300k", "5.0M to 9.9M", "Estimate"], ["Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent", "137k to 293k", - "4.5M to 9.7M", "Estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase"], + "4.5M to 9.6M", "Estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase"], ] if a: rows.append(["Not bought at launch (levers, section 8.2): solar PV on the factory roof (~520 kWp) " diff --git a/docs/finance/revenue-model.md b/docs/finance/revenue-model.md index 450ac28..a57f275 100644 --- a/docs/finance/revenue-model.md +++ b/docs/finance/revenue-model.md @@ -325,15 +325,16 @@ answer should not be leaned on**. Three reasons: Two readings still fall out of the shape, and both matter. -**The variable price is roughly three-and-a-half to seven times the -model's assumption.** This -model prices a record at 115–150 THB (3.50–4.60 USD) blended. The Thai +**The variable price is roughly three to six times the model's +assumption.** This model prices a record at ~124–174 THB (3.76–5.27 USD) +blended at the planned 60 % specials (115–150 THB, 3.50–4.60 USD, at the +~20 % specials it was first built on; re-based October 2026). The Thai domestic market pays **535–780 THB** for the same per-unit scope, and even at the deepest >3,000 discount never drops below ~455 THB. Some of that gap is scope: their figure carries a printed jacket where this model passes packaging through separately. But a jacket, inner sleeve and shrink at retail is on the order of 100–150 THB, which does not close a -gap of roughly 400 THB. +gap of roughly 360 THB and more. Two readings remain, and they **pull in opposite directions**: @@ -470,7 +471,7 @@ standard/color mix: **These two assumptions are the ones the market data contradicts most sharply.** Domestic Thai pricing runs 535–780 THB per unit on the variable -scope against the 115–150 THB assumed here, and per-title services look +scope against the ~124–174 THB assumed here at 60 % specials, and per-title services look understated as well. The figures above are deliberately left at the conservative Western-benchmark level until a second data point exists: re-basing the whole model on one supplier's price list, in a market with @@ -834,8 +835,8 @@ profits where there are any; see [boi.md](../boi.md). - Still no signed customers and no seller-side validation. The August 2026 data point above is buy-side, from one plant and one buyer, and it contradicts the model on per-title services and probably on run size. - The Making Vinyl trip and early conversations should test the 3.50 to - 4.60 USD blended assumption, and the run-size question — before either + The Making Vinyl trip and early conversations should test the 3.76 to + 5.27 USD blended assumption (60 % specials), and the run-size question, before either anchors a financing case - Demand risk is real: vinyl demand is cyclical and capacity has been added globally; the model assumes the plant can sell what it presses diff --git a/docs/finance/total-investment.md b/docs/finance/total-investment.md index bfe1147..e483f8c 100644 --- a/docs/finance/total-investment.md +++ b/docs/finance/total-investment.md @@ -133,6 +133,11 @@ target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case. ## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~215M THB (October 2026) +**The main investor wants to go with Plan B** (user, 19 October 2026). +Plan B is the proposal from here on: the investor deck leads with it, +and Plan A stays as the comparison, the version with the lowest launch +capital. Nothing in either plan's figures changes with that choice. + Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two versions** for the investor, built from the same documents: diff --git a/docs/project-timeline.md b/docs/project-timeline.md index d7d2e32..b0dda7d 100644 --- a/docs/project-timeline.md +++ b/docs/project-timeline.md @@ -11,6 +11,17 @@ Anchored at **August 2026**. Every duration is an estimate; the ones that are not in this repo at all are flagged as such, and one of them governs the whole schedule. +**Re-read in October 2026; the calendar itself is not redrawn yet.** +Three things changed after it was drawn: the plant now launches with the +whole chain in one capital round (one Newbilt Duplex system and one +Classic, the Pheenix galvanics line, the Sibert line and the cutting +room), commissioned in sequence with galvanics **first**, not as a later +phase; the site strategy is a long lease of raw land +([site candidates](site-candidates.md)), not a purchase; and the price is +the investor's Plan B, ~217M THB, labelled ~215M +([total investment](finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026)). +The USD figures and the land rows below are the August ones. + ## The answer **First paying release lands around Q4 2028 to mid-2029 — roughly 27 to @@ -143,9 +154,9 @@ Nothing else on this page is worth six months. This is. |---|---|---|---| | Land purchase | Design start, ~Q1 2027 | ~4 months | Zoning fails and a new site is needed (~6 months reset) | | Phase 1 construction | Machinery arrival, ~Q3 2028 | ~3–5 months | Soft-paddy soil forces piling, or permits stall | -| Ror.Ngor.4 factory licence | First production, Q4 2028 | ~4 months | Galvanics effluent permitting is raised early, but galvanics is Phase 5, so keep it out of the Phase 1 licence scope | +| Ror.Ngor.4 factory licence | First production, Q4 2028 | ~4 months | Galvanics effluent permitting stalls it: galvanics is in the launch plant and commissioned first, so it is in the licence scope from the first filing | | Solar and BESS | Fit-out, ~Q2 2028 | large | Gobel lead time is documented at 50–60 days; not a risk | -| Hiring and training | Commissioning, ~Q3 2028 | ~2 months | Galvanics process expertise — "the hardest skill to hire" per `equipment-suppliers.md`, but again, Phase 5 | +| Hiring and training | Commissioning, ~Q3 2028 | ~2 months | Galvanics process expertise, "the hardest skill to hire" per `equipment-suppliers.md`, is needed first: galvanics is commissioned before the presses | Construction has the thinnest float of anything with a real duration, and it is thin for a reason: it cannot start until the land is bought, @@ -189,7 +200,7 @@ only money: | Slab rating, 3 t/m² | Must be verified in an existing building; most Thai light-industrial stock will not have it | Specified from the start | | 500–1,000 kVA supply | Existing connection, or a PEA upgrade with its own lead time | Designed in | | BOI land ownership privilege | Unused | Used | -| Galvanics effluent, Phase 5 | Landlord's permission needed, and may not be given | Ours to permit | +| Galvanics effluent (launch plant) | Landlord's permission needed, and may not be given | Ours to permit | Leasing frees a seven-figure sum but, on this page's own critical path, **cannot pull the launch forward on its own** — the press chain governs, @@ -198,11 +209,12 @@ item that is not on the critical path does not move the end date. Leasing only advances the launch if the **press order** also moves forward, which is the BOI question above; the two are one lever, not two. The cost is a building that probably compromises on the two hardest requirements (floor -loading and power) and may block the Phase 5 galvanics line entirely. -Locating in the Northern Region Industrial Estate, which -[boi.md](boi.md) already favours for its shared central effluent -treatment, is the version of leasing that keeps the -galvanics option alive. +loading and power) and may block the galvanics line, which the launch +plant needs from the start, entirely. Locating in the Northern Region +Industrial Estate, which [boi.md](boi.md) already favours for its shared +central effluent treatment, is the version of leasing an existing +building that keeps the galvanics line possible. (Decided since: a long +lease of raw land with a purpose-built plant, which keeps both.) **This is an unresolved fork, not a decision I can make.** It is worth resolving before more design effort goes into the parametric model, diff --git a/docs/roadmap.md b/docs/roadmap.md index b1bc0c6..54c5194 100644 --- a/docs/roadmap.md +++ b/docs/roadmap.md @@ -31,8 +31,11 @@ These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream: collects that run-size distribution from everyone who configures a record. 2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity - sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and - R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes + sub-code, and structure the application around the measures that still + stack: automation and R&D, and the battery if it qualifies. Solar + installations lost BOI promotion on 1 July 2025 (Announcement 3/2568, + see [boi.md](boi.md)), so the roof array is not part of the + application. The application precedes company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to certificate in practice. diff --git a/docs/scale.md b/docs/scale.md index 6475d9f..b36ac17 100644 --- a/docs/scale.md +++ b/docs/scale.md @@ -236,7 +236,7 @@ phase 1 every bit as much as phase 2. ## Land: factory plot Industrial plots typically allow 50 to 60% building coverage, and the site -needs truck access and turning, parking, the outdoor cooling tower, the +needs truck access and turning, parking, the utility yard (air-cooled chillers, no cooling tower), the separated BESS enclosure, possible ground-mount solar, and expansion room. - Minimum workable: **~4 rai** (6,400 m²) @@ -286,7 +286,7 @@ year without electric steam, 0.7M to 1.1M of it demand charge (estimate); the de 400 THB per kVA. Detail and what it decides for steam, PV and the battery in [sustainability](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides). -Galvanics (Phase 5) is not in the table yet. By the Pheenix Alpha and +Galvanics (in the launch plant since October 2026, commissioned first) is not in the table yet. By the Pheenix Alpha and Sibert datasheets, one electroforming line plus the stamper prep machines is ~30 kVA connected, two three-phase plating units and the rest single-phase (see [galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)): diff --git a/docs/site-candidates.md b/docs/site-candidates.md index d0e4cc7..7025470 100644 --- a/docs/site-candidates.md +++ b/docs/site-candidates.md @@ -4,12 +4,14 @@ The site strategy is a long lease of raw land on which the purpose-built plant is constructed (business plan section 6.1, built from `business-plan/build/`). What any site has to offer is unchanged: ~4 rai minimum and 6 to 8 rai with expansion, truck access and turning, room for -the cooling tower and a separated battery enclosure, a 500 to 1,000 kVA +the detached utility yard (boiler hall and an open compound of air-cooled +chillers, no cooling tower) and a separated battery enclosure, a 500 to 1,000 kVA medium-voltage connection, a slab rated 3 t/m² and a frame able to carry the overhead crane ([scale](scale.md), [crane, workshop and tours](crane-workshop-tours.md)), factory permission -for pressing with a steam boiler, and, for Phase 5, permission for an -electroplating line ([galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)). +for pressing with a steam boiler, and permission for an electroplating +line from the start (galvanics is in the launch plant and commissioned +first) ([galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)). ## The three candidates @@ -124,7 +126,7 @@ dropped. Source record with the zone's full rules and annex: Payap scenario model below needs a 150 m square (14.1 rai) as drawn, with a press hall laid out for Duplex systems, a colour store and a reserve. -6. **Galvanics on a campus.** Phase 5 electroplating needs the lessor's +6. **Galvanics on a campus.** The electroplating line, in the launch plant, needs the lessor's written consent; the zero-discharge design ([sustainability](sustainability.md)) becomes a lease condition, not only a commitment. @@ -265,7 +267,7 @@ and every equipment envelope is an estimate. outside the crane zone. - **Utility yard** behind the press hall, across a 6 m lane: - boiler house with chimney and a covered fuel store; - - chiller and cooling tower; + - open chiller compound with air-cooled chillers (no cooling tower); - a raw water tank (5 m × 3 m, as in the phase 1 RFQ); - PEA transformer; - a pipe bridge that drops into the service trench.