Plan B chosen; stale mirrors fixed; business plan rebuilt
User, 19 Oct 2026: the main investor wants to go with Plan B; fix the stale docs the deck build found. - total-investment.md "Two plans" and README: the main investor wants Plan B (~217M THB, labelled ~215M); Plan A stays as the comparison. - boi.md: duty without BOI on the launch plant's ~2.3M USD of imported machinery (~0.11M duty, ~0.17M import VAT), as total-investment states; the calculator's ~2.5M includes the water treatment; the old ~2.75M was the superseded start fleet. - roadmap.md item 2: the BOI application stacks automation, R&D and the battery if it qualifies; solar lost promotion on 1 July 2025. - project-timeline.md: October re-read note (launch plant with galvanics commissioned first, long lease of raw land, Plan B price; calendar not redrawn); galvanics rows no longer "Phase 5". - revenue-model.md: blended price at 60 % specials ~124 to 174 THB (3.76 to 5.27 USD), the Thai gap "three to six times". - site-candidates.md, scale.md: utility yard with air-cooled chillers, no cooling tower; electroplating permission needed from the start. - Business plan: working capital 4.5M to 9.6M THB (as total-investment); A and B docx and PDF rebuilt (63 pages each, TOC checked).
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@@ -325,15 +325,16 @@ answer should not be leaned on**. Three reasons:
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Two readings still fall out of the shape, and both matter.
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**The variable price is roughly three-and-a-half to seven times the
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model's assumption.** This
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model prices a record at 115–150 THB (3.50–4.60 USD) blended. The Thai
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**The variable price is roughly three to six times the model's
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assumption.** This model prices a record at ~124–174 THB (3.76–5.27 USD)
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blended at the planned 60 % specials (115–150 THB, 3.50–4.60 USD, at the
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~20 % specials it was first built on; re-based October 2026). The Thai
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domestic market pays **535–780 THB** for the same per-unit scope, and even
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at the deepest >3,000 discount never drops below ~455 THB. Some of that
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gap is scope: their figure carries a printed jacket where this model
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passes packaging through separately. But a jacket, inner sleeve and
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shrink at retail is on the order of 100–150 THB, which does not close a
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gap of roughly 400 THB.
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gap of roughly 360 THB and more.
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Two readings remain, and they **pull in opposite directions**:
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@@ -470,7 +471,7 @@ standard/color mix:
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**These two assumptions are the ones the market data contradicts most
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sharply.** Domestic Thai pricing runs 535–780 THB per unit on the variable
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scope against the 115–150 THB assumed here, and per-title services look
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scope against the ~124–174 THB assumed here at 60 % specials, and per-title services look
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understated as well. The figures above are deliberately left at the
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conservative Western-benchmark level until a second data point exists:
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re-basing the whole model on one supplier's price list, in a market with
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@@ -834,8 +835,8 @@ profits where there are any; see [boi.md](../boi.md).
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- Still no signed customers and no seller-side validation. The August 2026
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data point above is buy-side, from one plant and one buyer, and it
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contradicts the model on per-title services and probably on run size.
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The Making Vinyl trip and early conversations should test the 3.50 to
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4.60 USD blended assumption, and the run-size question — before either
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The Making Vinyl trip and early conversations should test the 3.76 to
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5.27 USD blended assumption (60 % specials), and the run-size question, before either
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anchors a financing case
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- Demand risk is real: vinyl demand is cyclical and capacity has been
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added globally; the model assumes the plant can sell what it presses
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@@ -133,6 +133,11 @@ target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
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## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~215M THB (October 2026)
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**The main investor wants to go with Plan B** (user, 19 October 2026).
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Plan B is the proposal from here on: the investor deck leads with it,
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and Plan A stays as the comparison, the version with the lowest launch
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capital. Nothing in either plan's figures changes with that choice.
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Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
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versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
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