Plan B chosen; stale mirrors fixed; business plan rebuilt

User, 19 Oct 2026: the main investor wants to go with Plan B; fix the
stale docs the deck build found.

- total-investment.md "Two plans" and README: the main investor wants
  Plan B (~217M THB, labelled ~215M); Plan A stays as the comparison.
- boi.md: duty without BOI on the launch plant's ~2.3M USD of imported
  machinery (~0.11M duty, ~0.17M import VAT), as total-investment states;
  the calculator's ~2.5M includes the water treatment; the old ~2.75M
  was the superseded start fleet.
- roadmap.md item 2: the BOI application stacks automation, R&D and the
  battery if it qualifies; solar lost promotion on 1 July 2025.
- project-timeline.md: October re-read note (launch plant with
  galvanics commissioned first, long lease of raw land, Plan B price;
  calendar not redrawn); galvanics rows no longer "Phase 5".
- revenue-model.md: blended price at 60 % specials ~124 to 174 THB
  (3.76 to 5.27 USD), the Thai gap "three to six times".
- site-candidates.md, scale.md: utility yard with air-cooled chillers,
  no cooling tower; electroplating permission needed from the start.
- Business plan: working capital 4.5M to 9.6M THB (as total-investment);
  A and B docx and PDF rebuilt (63 pages each, TOC checked).
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grabowski committed 2026-10-20 13:26:28 +07:00
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@@ -325,15 +325,16 @@ answer should not be leaned on**. Three reasons:
Two readings still fall out of the shape, and both matter.
**The variable price is roughly three-and-a-half to seven times the
model's assumption.** This
model prices a record at 115–150 THB (3.50–4.60 USD) blended. The Thai
**The variable price is roughly three to six times the model's
assumption.** This model prices a record at ~124–174 THB (3.76–5.27 USD)
blended at the planned 60 % specials (115–150 THB, 3.50–4.60 USD, at the
~20 % specials it was first built on; re-based October 2026). The Thai
domestic market pays **535–780 THB** for the same per-unit scope, and even
at the deepest >3,000 discount never drops below ~455 THB. Some of that
gap is scope: their figure carries a printed jacket where this model
passes packaging through separately. But a jacket, inner sleeve and
shrink at retail is on the order of 100–150 THB, which does not close a
gap of roughly 400 THB.
gap of roughly 360 THB and more.
Two readings remain, and they **pull in opposite directions**:
@@ -470,7 +471,7 @@ standard/color mix:
**These two assumptions are the ones the market data contradicts most
sharply.** Domestic Thai pricing runs 535–780 THB per unit on the variable
scope against the 115–150 THB assumed here, and per-title services look
scope against the ~124–174 THB assumed here at 60 % specials, and per-title services look
understated as well. The figures above are deliberately left at the
conservative Western-benchmark level until a second data point exists:
re-basing the whole model on one supplier's price list, in a market with
@@ -834,8 +835,8 @@ profits where there are any; see [boi.md](../boi.md).
- Still no signed customers and no seller-side validation. The August 2026
data point above is buy-side, from one plant and one buyer, and it
contradicts the model on per-title services and probably on run size.
The Making Vinyl trip and early conversations should test the 3.50 to
4.60 USD blended assumption, and the run-size question — before either
The Making Vinyl trip and early conversations should test the 3.76 to
5.27 USD blended assumption (60 % specials), and the run-size question, before either
anchors a financing case
- Demand risk is real: vinyl demand is cyclical and capacity has been
added globally; the model assumes the plant can sell what it presses
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@@ -133,6 +133,11 @@ target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~215M THB (October 2026)
**The main investor wants to go with Plan B** (user, 19 October 2026).
Plan B is the proposal from here on: the investor deck leads with it,
and Plan A stays as the comparison, the version with the lowest launch
capital. Nothing in either plan's figures changes with that choice.
Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
versions** for the investor, built from the same documents: