B4L/cnx_vinyl
Private
Public Access
8
0 Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Actions Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Launch plant roll-up and the investor's 180M THB question

Browse Source 
Decided (user, October 2026): the plant launches with everything in one
capital round, commissioned in sequence: one Newbilt Duplex system, one
Classic, a Pheenix galvanics line with ZLD water, the Sibert line, a
Sillitoe cutting room, and the modular steam and cooling plant (2 x 500
kg/h boilers, 2 x 250 kW chillers, rooms for four each). No bridge
stampers, no outsourced cutting; cassette and CD-R stay; the second
Duplex and further Classics are growth options, not in the investment.

total-investment.md: new 'Launch plant' roll-up, 4.9M to 8.9M USD,
161M to 292M THB incl. 15 % contingency (midpoint ~227M), with what is
left out (ramp-up reserve ~10-20M THB, CD replication, financing, FX,
archive shelving) and the BOI assumption. The investor's question (180M
THB, maybe +20 % = 216M): fits at the low end only; at the midpoint four
levers that keep every machine (solar via PPA, metrology launch tier,
galvanics near OMS's reference, visitor corridor later) give ~193M, plus
reserve ~203-213M, inside 216M; 180M needs low quotes. The quotes that
decide it: Newbilt (Duplex, Classic), Pheenix galvanics, building with
soil test, metrology. Old full vision and phased entry marked superseded
until the mirrors are re-based.

Utilities CSV: chiller bank two modules (4.9-7.9M THB), boiler note for
B-1 and B-2 at launch, ZLD and DI rows now launch scope (carried with
galvanics); baseline 28.47M-48.73M THB. README project status.
This commit is contained in:
grabowski committed 2026-10-16 14:53:19 +07:00
1 parent 07ef9c0b9a
commit 553b4a93d1
3 files changed
+125 -10
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

No files matched your search

docs/finance/total-investment.md
+111 -5
View File
@@ -12,7 +12,111 @@ wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at
July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at
~38 is where it was when they were made.
## Full vision, all blocks
## Launch plant (October 2026)
Decided (user, October 2026): the plant launches **with everything in one
capital round**, commissioned in sequence, with no bridge stampers and no
outsourced cutting:
- one **Newbilt Duplex** system: two HRP 12 semi-automatic presses, an
EX 50 main and an EX 35 colour extruder
([pressing line](../equipment/pressing-line.md));
- one **Newbilt Classic** fully automatic press;
- one **Pheenix Alpha** galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, one PDPU, PMPB) with
zero-discharge water treatment
([galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md));
- the **Sibert** stamper-prep line (VSF, VSP, VSC);
- a **Sillitoe SDMS** cutting room
([vendor landscape](../suppliers/vendor-landscape.md#mastering-and-cutting-sillitoe-audio-technology-australia));
- the **modular steam and cooling plant**: two 500 kg/h boiler modules and
two 250 kW chiller modules, in a boiler hall and a chiller compound
built for four each ([scale](../scale.md#utility-phasing-backbone-once-modules-with-the-presses)).
Cassette and CD-R duplication stay in. The second Duplex system and the
further Classics are growth options with room reserved, not in this
investment. Three presses make roughly 0.7 to 0.95 million records a year
on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
0.97 million, the planning rates of the
[fleet calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) ~0.94 million).
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 0: BOI consultant, legal and lease work, soil test, re-quotes | 40k – 80k | 1.3M – 2.6M | estimate |
| Newbilt Duplex system (two HRP 12, EX 50 + EX 35, trimmer, label oven, shrink wrapper, grinder, label punch) | 350k – 370k | 11.6M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 for the Single 2.1 plus the quoted second press and extruder ~USD 115k; expired, re-quote |
| Newbilt Classic | 290k – 460k | 9.6M – 15.2M | placeholder (the old AD12 band per press); **no Newbilt price on file** |
| Pheenix galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, PDPU, PMPB) | 320k – 650k | 10.6M – 21.4M | estimate; **no Pheenix price on file**; OMS's reference prices for a 4-cell wet room (EUR 224k to 311k, ~USD 259k to 359k) sit at the low end |
| Galvanics water: ZLD evaporator and DI water | 97k – 258k | 3.2M – 8.5M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) rows, now launch scope |
| Water-treatment building next to galvanics (~12 × 10 m, proposed) | 52k – 87k | 1.7M – 2.9M | estimate at the building rate below |
| Sibert VSF, VSP, VSC | 250k | 8.3M | Sibert's budget confirmation, 5 October 2026; its time, spares, shipping and travel in the freight and working-capital lines |
| Cutting room: Sillitoe SDMS, spare cutterhead and support, mastering console and chain, monitoring, room build-out | 200k – 350k | 6.6M – 11.6M | SDMS list price USD 125k (ex tax and shipping); the rest estimate |
| Metrology and QC stack (XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler, inline vision on three presses, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.6M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable ([quality automation](../quality-automation.md)) |
| PVC lab, day-one tier | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md) |
| Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking | 863k – 1,477k | 28.5M – 48.7M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil and site works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.3M | estimate at 12,000 – 20,000 THB/m² plus ~20 % site works; soil is the main variable |
| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
| Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules | 73k – 122k | 2.4M – 4.0M | estimate, [scale](../scale.md#detached-utility-yard-parking-and-what-that-moves) |
| Factory software, ERPNext, artist platform public side | 115k – 310k | 3.8M – 10.2M | estimate: factory software 60k – 170k, ERPNext implementation 15k – 50k ([digital factory](../digital-factory.md#erpnext-the-plants-erp)), artist platform 40k – 90k ([artist platform](../artist-platform.md)) |
| Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication | 55k – 190k | 1.8M – 6.3M | estimate, business plan sections 4.8 and 4.9 |
| Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its quoted 5 days) | 150k – 300k | 5.0M – 9.9M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent | 135k – 290k | 4.5M – 9.6M | estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase |
| Subtotal | ~4.24M – 7.71M | ~140M – 254M | |
| Contingency 15 % | ~0.64M – 1.16M | ~21M – 38M | |
| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.9M – 8.9M USD** | **~161M – 292M THB** | midpoint ~6.9M USD, ~227M THB |
Not in the total: a **reserve for the ramp-up** (staff hired before first
revenue, overheads until volume covers them; ~10M to 20M THB, estimate),
CD replication, financing costs, currency moves, and the archive's mobile
shelving (to quote). The blocks are vendor prices without Thai duty or
import VAT, so they assume BOI promotion: without it, ~5 % duty on ~2.3M
USD of imported machinery (~0.11M USD) comes on top, plus ~0.17M USD of
import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).
### The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)
The project's investor asked whether the plant can be built for **180M
THB (~5.45M USD), possibly up to 20 % more (216M THB, ~6.55M USD)**.
| Case | Launch plant | Against 180M | Against 216M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end of every block | ~161M THB | fits, ~19M to spare | fits |
| Midpoint | ~227M THB | ~47M over | ~11M over |
| High end of every block | ~292M THB | ~112M over | ~76M over |
**Read honestly: 216M THB is a realistic target for the full equipment
list; 180M THB holds only if the open quotes land low.** At the midpoint
four levers bring the plant inside 216M without dropping any of the
machines decided above (midpoint values with their share of the
contingency, estimates):
| Lever | Saves | Launch plant after it |
|---|---|---|
| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the EPC owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) instead of buying them | ~12.3M THB | ~214M THB |
| Metrology launch tier (XRF, inline vision, audio station), the laser confocal and the wide-area profiler bought from revenue | ~10.1M THB | ~204M THB |
| Pheenix galvanics priced near OMS's reference for a 4-cell wet room | ~6.7M THB | ~198M THB |
| Visitor corridor built later; the plant runs without public tours at first | ~4.1M THB | ~193M THB |
Add the ramp-up reserve of ~10M to 20M THB and that is **~203M to 213M
THB, inside the 216M**. Reaching 180M at the midpoint needs scope cuts on
top: cassette and CD-R later (~4.6M THB) and renting a crane for the
installations while the frame stays crane-ready (~3.7M THB) give ~185M
before the reserve, still above 180M, so 180M is a low-quote outcome, not
a plan.
What decides it: the two largest machine lines have no price at all (the
Classic and the Pheenix galvanics line), and the building depends on the
soil. Four requests settle most of the band: the Newbilt re-quote for the
Duplex and the Classic, a Pheenix quote for the galvanics line, the
building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology
stack. Until they are in, quote **~216M THB** to the investor as the
target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)
The five-press full vision below is superseded by the launch plant above.
It stays until the documents that quote its 4.7M to 8.9M USD total (README,
roadmap, revenue model, business plan) are re-based on the launch plant.
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
@@ -54,10 +158,12 @@ building, software and stamper prep lines, and the contingency on top).
| Archive mobile shelving for the father and mother archive (October 2026) | to quote | to quote | not in the sum: A-Z Solutions publishes no prices; quote it and a Thai supplier ([facility security](../facility-security.md#archive-room-mobile-shelving)) |
| **Added so far** | **~678k – 1,027k** | **~22.3M – 33.9M** | about 13 to 17% on the full-vision subtotal |
## Phased entry
## Phased entry (superseded October 2026)
A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly **1.7M to 2.9M USD
(~57M to 95M THB)**:
Superseded by the launch plant above, which launches with galvanics, the
cutting room and three presses. The earlier phased entry, kept for
reference: a launch phase of roughly **1.7M to 2.9M USD (~57M to 95M
THB)**:
- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
@@ -85,7 +191,7 @@ exactly this reason.
start fleet (estimate)
- **Buy vs lease** on land and building swings roughly **1.0M to 2.1M
USD (~34M to 69M THB)** of upfront capital, and also moves the launch
date by about three quarters — see
date by about three quarters; see
[project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)
- **Biggest uncertainty bands**: metrology (partly a choice of ambition),
the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the