cnx_vinyl/docs/finance/total-investment.md

# Total Investment: Rough Picture

Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked
"estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the
researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide
margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.

**Currency: USD and THB.** FX at 5 August 2026: **1 USD = 33 THB**.
Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency
wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at
**1 EUR = 1.155 USD** and **1 GBP = 1.35 USD**. Original figures compiled
July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at
~38 is where it was when they were made.

## Launch plant (October 2026)

Decided (user, October 2026): the plant launches **with everything in one
capital round**, commissioned in sequence, with no bridge stampers and no
outsourced cutting:

- one **Newbilt Duplex** system: two HRP 12 semi-automatic presses, an
  EX 50 main and an EX 35 colour extruder
  ([pressing line](../equipment/pressing-line.md));
- one **Newbilt Classic** fully automatic press;
- one **Pheenix Alpha** galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, one PDPU, PMPB) with
  zero-discharge water treatment
  ([galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md));
- the **Sibert** stamper-prep line (VSF, VSP, VSC);
- a **Sillitoe SDMS** cutting room
  ([vendor landscape](../suppliers/vendor-landscape.md#mastering-and-cutting-sillitoe-audio-technology-australia));
- the **modular steam and cooling plant**: two 500 kg/h boiler modules and
  two 250 kW chiller modules, in a boiler hall and a chiller compound
  built for four each ([scale](../scale.md#utility-phasing-backbone-once-modules-with-the-presses)).

Cassette and CD-R duplication stay in. The second Duplex system and the
further Classics are growth options with room reserved, not in this
investment. Three presses make roughly 0.7 to 0.95 million records a year
on two shifts (estimate: the [scale](../scale.md) basis gives ~0.71 to
0.97 million, the planning rates of the
[fleet calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) ~0.94 million).

| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 0: BOI consultant, legal and lease work, soil test, re-quotes | 40k – 80k | 1.3M – 2.6M | estimate |
| Newbilt Duplex system (two HRP 12, EX 50 + EX 35, trimmer, label oven, shrink wrapper, grinder, label punch) | 350k – 370k | 11.6M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 for the Single 2.1 plus the quoted second press and extruder ~USD 115k; expired, re-quote |
| Newbilt Classic | 290k – 460k | 9.6M – 15.2M | placeholder (the old AD12 band per press); **no Newbilt price on file** |
| Pheenix galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, PDPU, PMPB) | 324k – 445k | 10.7M – 14.7M | **OMS's reference plus 20 %** (user, October 2026): OMS's 4-cell wet room with the know-how transfer, EUR 234k to 321k (~USD 270k to 371k, [galvanics](../equipment/galvanics.md#oms-introduction-letter-9-october-2026)), as the price basis for the Pheenix line; **no Pheenix price on file** (was 320k to 650k, estimate) |
| Galvanics water: ZLD evaporator and DI water | 97k – 258k | 3.2M – 8.5M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) rows, now launch scope |
| Water-treatment building next to galvanics (~12 × 10 m, proposed) | 52k – 87k | 1.7M – 2.9M | estimate at the building rate below |
| Sibert VSF, VSP, VSC | 250k | 8.3M | Sibert's budget confirmation, 5 October 2026; its time, spares, shipping and travel in the freight and working-capital lines |
| Cutting room: Sillitoe SDMS, spare cutterhead and support, mastering console and chain, monitoring, room build-out | 200k – 350k | 6.6M – 11.6M | SDMS list price USD 125k (ex tax and shipping); the rest estimate |
| Metrology and QC stack (XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler, inline vision on three presses, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.6M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable ([quality automation](../quality-automation.md)) |
| PVC lab, day-one tier | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md) |
| Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking | 863k – 1,477k | 28.5M – 48.7M | [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil and site works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.3M | estimate at 12,000 – 20,000 THB/m² plus ~20 % site works; soil is the main variable |
| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
| Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules | 73k – 122k | 2.4M – 4.0M | estimate, [scale](../scale.md#detached-utility-yard-parking-and-what-that-moves) |
| Factory software, ERPNext, artist platform public side | 115k – 310k | 3.8M – 10.2M | estimate: factory software 60k – 170k, ERPNext implementation 15k – 50k ([digital factory](../digital-factory.md#erpnext-the-plants-erp)), artist platform 40k – 90k ([artist platform](../artist-platform.md)) |
| Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication | 55k – 190k | 1.8M – 6.3M | estimate, business plan sections 4.8 and 4.9 |
| Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its quoted 5 days) | 150k – 300k | 5.0M – 9.9M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent | 135k – 290k | 4.5M – 9.6M | estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase |
| Subtotal | ~4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M | midpoint ~5.87M USD, ~194M THB |
| Contingency 15 % | ~0.64M – 1.13M | ~21M – 37M | |
| **Total, launch plant** | **~4.9M – 8.6M USD** | **~161M – 285M THB** | midpoint ~6.76M USD, ~223M THB |

Not in the total: a **reserve for the ramp-up** (staff hired before first
revenue, overheads until volume covers them; ~10M to 20M THB, estimate),
CD replication, financing costs, currency moves, the archive's mobile
shelving (to quote), and the central hydraulic plant around the Newbilt
aggregates: standby pump set, accumulator station and ring main (not
costed yet; a Thai HPU builder quotes it,
[Chinese suppliers](../suppliers/china-utilities.md#hydraulics)). The blocks are vendor prices without Thai duty or
import VAT, so they assume BOI promotion: without it, ~5 % duty on ~2.3M
USD of imported machinery (~0.11M USD) comes on top, plus ~0.17M USD of
import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).

### The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)

*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)
below. Written against the earlier Pheenix estimate (USD 320k to 650k,
total ~227M THB at the midpoint); its galvanics lever is now the base
price.*

The project's investor asked whether the plant can be built for **180M
THB (~5.45M USD), possibly up to 20 % more (216M THB, ~6.55M USD)**.

| Case | Launch plant | Against 180M | Against 216M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end of every block | ~161M THB | fits, ~19M to spare | fits |
| Midpoint | ~227M THB | ~47M over | ~11M over |
| High end of every block | ~292M THB | ~112M over | ~76M over |

**Read honestly: 216M THB is a realistic target for the full equipment
list; 180M THB holds only if the open quotes land low.** At the midpoint
four levers bring the plant inside 216M without dropping any of the
machines decided above (midpoint values with their share of the
contingency, estimates):

| Lever | Saves | Launch plant after it |
|---|---|---|
| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the EPC owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) instead of buying them | ~12.3M THB | ~214M THB |
| Metrology launch tier (XRF, inline vision, audio station), the laser confocal and the wide-area profiler bought from revenue | ~10.1M THB | ~204M THB |
| Pheenix galvanics priced near OMS's reference for a 4-cell wet room | ~6.7M THB | ~198M THB |
| Visitor corridor built later; the plant runs without public tours at first | ~4.1M THB | ~193M THB |

Add the ramp-up reserve of ~10M to 20M THB and that is **~203M to 213M
THB, inside the 216M**. Reaching 180M at the midpoint needs scope cuts on
top: cassette and CD-R later (~4.6M THB) and renting a crane for the
installations while the frame stays crane-ready (~3.7M THB) give ~185M
before the reserve, still above 180M, so 180M is a low-quote outcome, not
a plan.

Chinese suppliers for the boilers, compressed air and hydraulics were
checked in October 2026
([Chinese suppliers](../suppliers/china-utilities.md)): about 2M THB at
the midpoint, ~2.5M with its share of the contingency, mostly on the two
boiler modules (ASME-stamped 1.25 MPa units from makers with Thai
references, installed by a Thai contractor) and a little on the
compressor (a Chinese brand bought through its Thai office). That is
about 1 % of the target and does not change the answer; the Newbilt
hydraulic aggregates stay Newbilt's. Chinese chillers and HVAC, larger
blocks, are not checked yet.

What decides it: the two largest machine lines have no price at all (the
Classic and the Pheenix galvanics line), and the building depends on the
soil. Four requests settle most of the band: the Newbilt re-quote for the
Duplex and the Classic, a Pheenix quote for the galvanics line, the
building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology
stack. Until they are in, quote **~216M THB** to the investor as the
target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.

## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~225M THB (October 2026)

Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:

- **Plan A, ~180M THB**: the launch plant with every machine decided
  above (one Duplex system, one Classic, galvanics, Sibert, the cutting
  room), brought down with six cost levers.
- **Plan B, ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %)**: the second Duplex system at
  launch, so five presses, with everything in.

Both are priced **without contingency** (user decision) and **with the
ramp-up reserve**, because the reserve is cash the investor puts in
before volume carries the plant. Pheenix galvanics is priced at OMS's
reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:

| Plan A: launch plant with six levers | Saves | Subtotal after it |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | | ~193.8M THB (~5.87M USD) |
| Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) | ~10.7M | ~183.1M |
| Metrology launch tier: XRF, inline vision and audio station at launch; laser confocal and wide-area profiler (USD 180k to 350k) bought from revenue | ~8.8M | ~174.4M |
| Visitor corridor built later; no public tours at first | ~3.6M | ~170.8M |
| Cassette and CD-R duplication later | ~4.0M | ~166.8M |
| Crane rented for the installations; frame, runway and machine door stay crane-ready | ~3.2M | ~163.6M |
| Boilers and compressor through the Chinese route ([Chinese suppliers](../suppliers/china-utilities.md)) | ~1.9M | **~161.7M (~4.90M USD)** |
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan A** | | **~177M THB (~5.35M USD)**, ~127M to 226M from the low to the high end of every block |

| Plan B: five presses, everything in | USD | THB, midpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~193.8M |
| Second Duplex system: two HRP 12, EX 50 and EX 35 (calculator basis: two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35; no EX 35 price on file) | 230k – 300k | +8.7M |
| Third chiller module, CH-3 (250 kW; the two boiler modules carry 750 to 900 kg/h) | 48k – 78k | +2.1M |
| Freight and installation for the extra machinery | 24k – 48k | +1.2M |
| Working capital for ~1.25M records a year instead of 0.85M | 64k – 139k | +3.4M |
| Subtotal | **4.61M – 8.07M** | **~209.2M (~6.34M USD)** |
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan B** | | **~224M THB (~6.79M USD)**, ~162M to 286M from the low to the high end of every block |

Plan B keeps what Plan A gives up: owned solar and battery (and with
them the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor
corridor, the bought crane, cassette and CD-R, Thai-supplied utilities.
Its five presses make ~1.0 to 1.5 million records a year at the planned
60 % specials (the [scale](../scale.md#production-capacity) basis; not
Duplex-limited), against ~0.58 to 0.90 million for Plan A's three; the
operating pictures of both are in the
[revenue model](revenue-model.md#operating-pictures-of-plan-a-and-plan-b-october-2026).
The [plant and business plan calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) has
both as presets.

**Not in either plan price:**
- **Contingency.** The blocks are budgetary (plus or minus 30 to 50 % on
  the estimates, top of this page), so the plans carry no buffer for
  quotes landing high. At this page's 15 % that would be ~24M THB on
  Plan A and ~31M on Plan B at the midpoint.
- The central hydraulic plant (not costed yet), the archive's mobile
  shelving (to quote), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves,
  and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).

**What decides between them:** demand. Plan B needs ~1.25 million records
sold a year in its central case, about 70 % more than Plan A's 0.74
million, three fifths of them special editions; market validation
(roadmap item 1) is the evidence for that. Plan A keeps the second Duplex
as a growth step from revenue, with its floor, utility positions and
ring-main tees reserved.

## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)

The five-press full vision below is superseded by the launch plant above.
Scale, pressing line, roadmap, revenue model (which now has a launch-plant
operating picture) and the fleet calculator are re-based on the launch
plant; the business plan is next. It stays for the record of how the
blocks were built.

| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote. The fleet has since changed, see the added-scope table |
| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning. Replaced by the Newbilt Classic in the current fleet, see the added-scope table |
| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, [galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)) is unpriced too; OMS's reference prices (letter, 9 October 2026) put a complete 4-cell wet room at EUR 224k basic to 311k advanced (~USD 259k to 359k; ~270k to 371k with know-how transfer), installation and water treatment extra: at or below this block's low end, kept until quotes exist |
| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row |
| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate kept until the re-base; Sibert has since confirmed USD 250k for the three (its time, spares, shipping and travel extra), the difference is in the table below |
| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 290k – 580k | 9.6M – 19.1M | estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist |
| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.5M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable |
| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 730k – 1,270k | 24.0M – 41.6M | reviewed [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv), THB-native; sized for one Duplex, the five-press re-size is in the table below |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.2M | estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
| Land 6–8 rai, if purchased | 360k – 970k | 12.0M – 32.0M | estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
| Traceability and factory software | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate |
| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Subtotal | ~4.1M – 7.7M | ~135M – 254M | |
| Contingency 15% | ~0.6M – 1.2M | ~20M – 38M | |
| **Total, full vision** | **~4.7M – 8.9M USD** | **~155M – 294M THB** | |

### Added scope, not yet in the roll-up

Decided, or re-priced by a vendor, after the roll-up above was compiled;
carried here until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the
building, software and stamper prep lines, and the contingency on top).

| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
| Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments) | 40k – 90k | 1.3M – 3.0M | estimate, [artist platform](../artist-platform.md) |
| PVC material lab, day-one tier (incl. plaque press and sample conditioning) | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md); not costed in the metrology block above. The mature tier (torque rheometer, DSC, FTIR, ~120k – 240k) is deferred, with partner labs in between |
| Stamper prep re-priced: USD 250k for VSP, VSF and VSC against the 60k – 170k block above | +190k (low case) / +80k (high case) | +6.3M / +2.6M | Sibert's budget confirmation, email of 5 October 2026 ([galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)); itemised quotation to follow. Its time, spare parts, shipping and travel are extra and fall into the freight/installation and spares blocks above |
| Press fleet changed (October 2026) to two Newbilt Duplex systems (two presses each, EX 50 main extruder and EX 35 colour extruder) plus one Newbilt Classic, replacing the two blocks above (930k – 1,290k): Duplex system 1 as the first block (350k – 370k; the quote's second-extruder option becomes the EX 35), system 2 ~230k – 300k (two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set as the yardstick, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35, estimate; no EX 35 price on file), the Classic ~290k – 460k (the AD12 band per press as a placeholder; no Newbilt price on file) | −60k (low case) / −160k (high case) | −2.0M / −5.3M | estimate, [pressing line](../equipment/pressing-line.md); the Newbilt re-quote replaces it. The utilities for five presses are re-sized in the row below |
| Utilities re-sized for the five-press fleet (October 2026): boiler bank 2 × 500 kg/h, chiller bank 3 × 250 kW with plate heat exchanger and tanks, larger softener and loop treatment ([steam and cooling](../steam-cooling.html)) | +185k (low case) / +294k (high case) | +6.1M / +9.7M | estimate, [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) re-based from 24.0M – 41.6M to 30.1M – 51.3M THB |
| Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules (October 2026): yard ~379 m² against 178 m² ([scale](../scale.md#detached-utility-yard-parking-and-what-that-moves)) | 73k – 122k | 2.4M – 4.0M | estimate: the building rate above on the ~200 m² the yard grows by; the open chiller compound costs less than a building, so this is the cautious end. The valved branches and feeders for the empty positions are not priced yet |
| ERPNext for the whole plant (October 2026): configuration with Thai tax, integration with every tool, Nix packaging; `vinyl-erp` server | to quote | to quote | not in the sum: 3.5 to 6 person-months in-house or a partner quote (Ecosoft), plus 2k to 4k USD hardware ([digital factory](../digital-factory.md#erpnext-the-plants-erp)); no licence fee |
| Archive mobile shelving for the father and mother archive (October 2026) | to quote | to quote | not in the sum: A-Z Solutions publishes no prices; quote it and a Thai supplier ([facility security](../facility-security.md#archive-room-mobile-shelving)) |
| **Added so far** | **~678k – 1,027k** | **~22.3M – 33.9M** | about 13 to 17% on the full-vision subtotal |

## Phased entry (superseded October 2026)

Superseded by the launch plant above, which launches with galvanics, the
cutting room and three presses. The earlier phased entry, kept for
reference: a launch phase of roughly **1.7M to 2.9M USD (~57M to 95M
THB)**:

- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full
  metrology deferred; the PVC lab's day-one tier is the added-scope row
  above
- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
- Galvanics, the second Duplex system and the Classic, full metrology,
  and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round
  expansions

The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the
bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass
steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for
exactly this reason.

## What moves the number

- **BOI**: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment
  blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption
  headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see
  [boi.md](../boi.md)). The blocks are vendor prices without Thai duty or
  import VAT, so the headline assumes promotion: without it, ~0.14M USD of
  duty and ~0.2M USD of import VAT (reclaimable later) come on top at the
  start fleet (estimate)
- **Buy vs lease** on land and building swings roughly **1.0M to 2.1M
  USD (~34M to 69M THB)** of upfront capital, and also moves the launch
  date by about three quarters; see
  [project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)
- **Biggest uncertainty bands**: metrology (partly a choice of ambition),
  the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the
  Newbilt Classic (no price on file), and land
- **Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here.** Revenue is
  mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and
  the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged
  against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see
  [project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)). A 10% move in EUR/THB
  between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line
  alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in
  [equipment-suppliers.md](../suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md) lists who
  to ask