grabowski
195dbff1f4
Blended pressing price, direct cost breakdown, margin, EBITDA and payback bands; all arithmetic reviewer-recomputed; adverse payback corner stated honestly alongside mid assumptions
102 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
102 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
# Revenue and Profit per Record: Rough Model
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A first-pass economic model at mature capacity. Every number here is an
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estimate from industry pricing norms and this repo's own cost research;
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nothing is market-validated yet. The point is the shape of the economics
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and which levers matter, not precision. FX: ~38 THB/EUR. Compiled July
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2026.
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## Pricing assumptions (what a pressing plant charges)
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Typical Western pressing-service prices run roughly 2.50 to 5.00+ EUR per
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12" record at volume for standard black, with premiums for color/splatter
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(+0.50 to 1.50), 180 g, and small runs; full-service with printed jacket
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lands around 4 to 8 EUR per unit. Per-title service fees come on top:
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mastering, lacquer cutting, stamper sets, test pressings, setup.
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Working assumptions for CNX at mature volume, blended across run sizes and
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standard/color mix:
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- **Blended pressing price: ~3.0 to 4.0 EUR per record** (pressing,
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labels, inner sleeve, assembly into customer-supplied or locally-made
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jacket; deluxe packaging passed through at cost plus margin)
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- **Per-title services: ~500 to 1,500 EUR per title** (mastering, cutting,
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stampers, test pressings), at roughly 300 to 600 titles/yr at full
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capacity
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- Dropshipping/fulfillment fees per parcel on top, not modeled here
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## Revenue at full capacity
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| Scenario | Records/yr | Pressing revenue | Title services | Total |
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| Mature, low | 1.0M | ~3.0M EUR | ~0.15M EUR | **~3.2M EUR/yr** |
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| Mature, high | 1.5M | ~5.3M EUR | ~0.6M EUR | **~5.9M EUR/yr** |
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(Low: 1.0M x 3.0 EUR + 300 titles x 500 EUR. High: 1.5M x 3.5 EUR + 600
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titles x 1,000 EUR. A pure-volume plant runs at the low per-title end; a
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boutique-heavy mix pushes the title line up and the volume down.)
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## Direct cost per record (estimates)
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| Cost element | EUR/record | Basis |
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| PVC compound | 0.25 to 0.40 | ~150 to 160 g effective virgin per record at 1.5 to 2.5 EUR/kg record-grade; regrind loop covers scrap |
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| Labels | 0.03 to 0.08 | printed pairs, volume |
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| Inner sleeve | 0.08 to 0.15 | poly-lined |
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| Jacket (standard) | 0.35 to 0.80 | local carton partners; pass-through-ish |
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| Shrink wrap | 0.02 to 0.03 | film |
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| Energy | 0.10 to 0.20 | ~1.5 to 2 kWh blended per record at grid/solar mix |
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| Production labor | 0.20 to 0.35 | 15 to 25 staff across shifts at Thai wage levels over 1.0 to 1.5M records |
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| Stamper amortization | 0.03 to 0.06 | in-house stamper over 1,000 to 2,000 pressings |
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| Maintenance, spares, consumables | 0.10 to 0.20 | estimate |
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| Reject allowance | 0.10 to 0.15 | 5 to 10% reject rate carried by good units |
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| **Total direct cost** | **~1.3 to 2.4** | |
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## Margin per record
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- Blended price ~3.0 to 4.0 EUR minus direct cost ~1.3 to 2.4 EUR gives a
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**gross margin of roughly 1.2 to 1.8 EUR per record (~40 to 55%)**
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- Overheads on top: admin/sales, insurance, facility running costs, and
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depreciation (~300k to 600k EUR/yr on the 4M to 7.7M full-vision capex
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over 10 to 15 years), together roughly 0.4 to 0.7 EUR per record at full
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volume
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Rough operating picture at full capacity: **EBITDA ~0.8 to 1.5M EUR/yr;
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operating profit after depreciation ~0.5 to 1.0M EUR/yr**, before tax.
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The BOI CIT exemptions (solar, automation, and any merit measures) shield a
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meaningful part of early-year profits; see [boi.md](../boi.md).
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Payback on the full-vision capex at these margins: **roughly 5 to 8
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years at mid assumptions** (the adverse corner, high capex meeting low
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profit, stretches past 15 years), materially better if the phased entry
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proves the market before the big blocks are bought.
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## What moves the model
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- **Utilization is everything**: the cost structure is mostly fixed, so
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profit swings almost linearly with volume sold; 60% utilization at
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mature fleet size roughly halves operating profit
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- **Mix**: color/splatter and boutique runs carry 20 to 50% price premiums
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and suit the semi-automatic line; the title-services line (mastering,
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cutting, stampers) has software-like margins once the rooms exist
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- **Regional position**: an Asia-Pacific full-service plant competes on
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turnaround and freight against EU/US plants for regional labels; pricing
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power there is unproven and is the single biggest assumption in this
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model
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- **In-house galvanics** removes 150 to 400 EUR per title of external
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stamper cost and days of turnaround, feeding both margin and the sales
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story
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- **Energy**: solar plus heat recovery pushes the energy line toward the
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low end and hedges Thai tariff rises
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## Honest caveats
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- No market validation yet: no signed customers, no confirmed regional
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price points; the Making Vinyl trip and early conversations should test
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the 3.0 to 4.0 EUR blended assumption before it anchors any financing
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case
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- Demand risk is real: vinyl demand is cyclical and capacity has been
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added globally; the model assumes the plant can sell what it presses
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- The reject allowance assumes the QC investment holds rejects at or below
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industry norms; early production will run worse before it runs better
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