cnx_vinyl/docs/scale.md

# Project Scale: Rough Numbers

One-page sizing of the whole project. Everything here is a planning
estimate derived from the session's vendor data and standard ratios;
figures marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation yet. Update this
page as real quotes and the site decision land.

## Production capacity

| Phase | Fleet | Rough output |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant (decided October 2026) | 2 semi-auto (Duplex system 1: EX 50 main + EX 35 colour extruder) + 1 automated (Newbilt Classic), commissioned in sequence, 2 shifts at volume | ~0.58 to 0.90 million records/yr at the planned 60 % specials (Duplex-limited); ~0.71 to 0.97 million at ~20 % |
| Growth option: second Duplex | 4 semi-auto (two Duplex systems) + 1 Classic, 2 shifts; room reserved, not in the investment | ~1.0 to 1.5 million records/yr |
| Full hall (option) | 4 Duplex systems + 6 Classics, the hall laid out 60/40 for Duplex, 2 shifts | ~2.3 to 3.6 million records/yr at 60 % specials, ~3.6 to 4.7 million at ~20 % (estimate) |

The [press fleet calculator](fleet-calculator.html) sizes the fleet for
any yearly output and specials share, with the people and utilities it
needs; at the user's planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex
system, 2 per Classic, 65 % effectiveness, two shifts) the launch plant
makes ~0.94 million records a year, the five-press fleet ~1.5 million and
a full Payap press hall (two Duplex systems and eleven Classics) ~5.2
million.

**Launch plant (October 2026).** The plant launches with one Duplex
system and one Classic, with cutting and galvanics in-house
([total investment](finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)).
Its utilities: steam 450 to 540 kg/h on boiler modules B-1 and B-2, cooling
~390 kW at the hot-afternoon peak on chillers CH-1 and CH-2 (2 × 250 kW),
with the boiler hall, chiller compound and ring mains built for the
larger fleet as in [utility phasing](#utility-phasing-backbone-once-modules-with-the-presses).
The building, electrical and steam sections below still size the
five-press fleet that the backbone is built for.

Basis: the fleet plan of October 2026
([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)). Launch plant: two
semi-automatic presses at 60 to 80 records/hour each plus the Classic at
~128/hour, 248 to 288 records/hour, with 60 to 70 % effectiveness ~149 to
202 an hour, 0.71 to 0.97 million a year on the same 16 h and 300 days.
Five-press fleet: The automated Classic
~128 records/hour (28 s cycle, vendor flyer); semi-automatic throughput is
unpublished, assumed 60 to 80 records/hour per press with operator
handling (estimate); 16 h/day, 300 days/yr, with realistic overall
effectiveness of 60 to 70% applied: 368 to 448 records/hour, ~1.06 to 1.5
million a year. The theoretical ceiling of the mature fleet at 100% uptime
is roughly 1.8 to 2.2 million records per year. (The earlier 50/50 fleet,
two semi-automatic presses and two Pheenix AD12s, landed in the same
range.) The full-hall row is an option the plant keeps room for, not a
plan: the press hall is laid out 60/40 by floor for Duplex systems, since
the plant focuses on special pressings
([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)). Eight semi-automatic
presses and six Classics give 1,250 to 1,410 records/hour gross, ~3.6 to
4.7 million a year on the same basis, and neither the
[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md) nor the investment includes
them.

**Specials share 60 % and more (October 2026).** Specials run only on the
Duplex systems, so at 60 % they set the output wherever the Duplex makes
less than 60 % of the fleet's records: the launch plant drops to ~0.58 to
0.90 million (the Classic runs at about two thirds load) and the full
hall to ~2.3 to 3.6 million (the six Classics about half loaded). The
five-press fleet is not affected. At the planning rates of the
[calculator](fleet-calculator.html) (3 a minute per Duplex system) the
launch plant stays balanced at ~0.94 million. A hall balanced by output
at 60 % specials would give the Duplex systems ~70 to 75 % of the floor
(estimate), e.g. five Duplex bays and four Classic positions.

**The 60–70% effectiveness assumption is worth challenging, but not yet
changing.** Newbilt publishes ≥95% yield and ≥95% uptime for the Classic
12" automatic at a 28 s cycle (~128 records/h), and quotes ~30 s average
for the Duplex. Three reasons not to adjust anything on that basis:

- **Machine uptime is not plant OEE.** A vendor uptime figure excludes
  stamper and mould changes, label reels, colour changeovers, PVC lot
  changes, first-article QC and breaks — precisely the losses that
  dominate a short-run boutique plant. They are different quantities.
- It would apply only to the **automated press** (the Classic). The
  60–80/h semi-auto figure already embeds operator handling, so applying
  an uplift to that half would double-count.
- 0.95 × 0.95 is 0.90 before any performance factor; reaching 80% OEE
  needs a performance factor near 0.89, which nobody has estimated.

Ask both press vendors for the **basis** of their uptime and yield
figures — measured over what period, at what run length, counting which
stoppages — as part of the re-quote. It is a free question. If the
figures survive scrutiny they would argue for a higher OEE on the
automated fleet only, and the same logic would apply to any competitor
running the same machine.

## Building

| Zone | Rough area |
|---|---|
| Semi-auto press hall (Newbilt Duplex spec) | ~200 m² |
| Automated press zone | ~100 to 150 m² |
| Galvanics clean room + water treatment + chemical storage | ~80 to 150 m² |
| Mastering and cutting room | ~40 to 60 m² |
| Stamper prep | ~30 m² |
| Packaging + finished goods warehouse | ~300 to 500 m² |
| Utility rooms (boiler, compressor, chiller, electrical) | ~100 to 150 m² |
| Offices, QC/listening, archive, IT, entrance | ~150 to 200 m² |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay (crane-served) | ~100 to 150 m² |
| Visitor corridor (glazed, ground level) | ~110 to 130 m² |
| Circulation, walls, misc | ~150 to 250 m² |
| **Total under roof** | **~1,400 to 2,000 m²** |

The HVAC budget in the utilities CSV already assumes ~1,500 m² conditioned.
Single story throughout: all heavy equipment needs ground-slab floor
loading (multiple tons per m²).

The workshop and the visitor corridor were added in October 2026, together
with an overhead crane over the production compartment; what they need and
what they change in the shell is in
[crane, workshop and tours](crane-workshop-tours.md). They add ~210 to
280 m² to a program that already filled the 60 × 25 m footprint, which
settles the open question below in favour of growing the program into the
floor the utility yard frees: at the lower half of the table everything
fits; at the upper half, finished goods move to the phase 2 building.

### Detached utility yard, parking, and what that moves

The massing model puts the boiler and chiller in a **detached utility yard**
alongside the main building rather than inside it, which is what the boiler's
own-room requirement in [facility security](facility-security.md) and biomass
fuel delivery both push toward. Its rooms are built once for **four boiler
and four chiller modules** (decided October 2026), while the modules
themselves arrive one press stage at a time
([utility phasing](#utility-phasing-backbone-once-modules-with-the-presses)):

| | Area | Height |
|---|---|---|
| Boiler hall, four 500 kg/h module positions | ~162 m² (18 × 9 m) | 6.0 m |
| Biomass fuel store | 42 m² | 5.0 m |
| Chiller compound, four 250 kW pads, open to the sky, screened | ~135 m² (12.5 × 10.8 m) | screen ~2.5 m |
| Cooling pump and heat-exchanger room | ~40 m² (8 × 5 m) | 4.0 m |
| Flue stack | - | 14 m |

All sizes are estimates until the boiler and chiller vendors send
footprints:

- **Boiler hall.** The fuel is still open, so the fired case sets the
  size. The largest piece of a 500 kg/h biomass boiler is about
  3.3 × 2.0 × 2.7 m (AIX DZL0.5 listing, checked October 2026). Four
  3.5 m bays plus a 4 m bay for the feed tank, softener, feed pumps and
  steam header make 18 m. A 2.5 m firing aisle, 1.5 m of fuel feed, the
  boiler and 1.3 m behind it make 9 m. Dust collectors, fans and the stack
  stand outside along the back wall. An electric bank (~3.0 × 1.5 m per
  500 kg/h module, vendor listing) would need about half the hall.
- **Chillers.** Air-cooled chillers need open air, so the earlier
  "chiller room" becomes an open, screened compound plus a small enclosed
  room for the heat exchanger, the cold tank and the pumps. A 250 kW
  module rated at 40 °C is about the size of a Carrier 30RB 080 to 090:
  2.4 to 3.6 × 2.24 × 2.28 m (Carrier's published dimensions, checked
  October 2026). The pads are 4.0 × 2.6 m, in two rows of two, with
  ~1.8 m to the screen and 2.0 m between the rows; the chosen unit's
  clearance drawing governs. The cooling tower pad of the earlier
  water-cooled concept is gone; a dry cooler, if bought, gets a pad sized
  with its quote.
- **What four positions carry.**
  - Steam: four boilers give 2,000 kg/h, or 1,500 kg/h with one held in
    reserve, enough for about eight presses at 180 kg/h. The five-press
    fleet runs on B-1 and B-2, B-3 is the reserve, and B-4 is room for
    about three more presses.
  - Cooling: four chillers give 1,000 kW. The five presses (~652.5 kW)
    already need three, so CH-4 is the reserve and there is no growth
    position. Each further press adds ~130 kW with its extruder and
    hydraulics; a sixth eats into the reserve, and seven is the limit with
    none.
  - Pads laid out for the next frame up (Carrier 30RB 120 to 150 class,
    ~4.8 m long, roughly 350 kW at 40 °C, estimate) would let four
    chillers carry about eight presses with one in reserve, matching the
    boiler hall. That is a priced option for the chiller RFQ.

The yard grows from 178 m² to ~379 m². The old 126 m² of boiler hall and
chiller room fitted the 100 to 150 m² the zone table allows for them in the
main building; the four-module rooms would not, which is one more reason the
yard stays detached. Moving the plant out frees that zone-table floor for
production, so either the main building shrinks by that much or the program
grows into it. Decide which before the building is priced. The
[Payap parts model](site-candidates.md#roof-pv-and-parking-canopies-part-and-draft-model-october-2026)
draws the yard this way.

Staff parking is roofed, in the front yard clear of the loading route:
**10 car bays** (27.7 × 7.0 m canopy, 195 m²) and **~30 scooter spaces**
(13.7 × 5.5 m, 76 m²), carrying a further **~40 kWp** of PV on their
canopies — dimensions per the modelled layout in the
[construction RFQ](finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md). At 4.1 m and 3.5 m
they sit below the main building's 7.0 m low eave, so they cannot shade it.
Fully covered with the 580 W placeholder module the two canopies take 94
modules (~54 kWp); see the Payap parts model in
[site candidates](site-candidates.md#roof-pv-and-parking-canopies-part-and-draft-model-october-2026).

### Expansion headroom: a second building

Tested against the candidate Mueang Chi parcel, in the massing model at
`factory_building_rough.FCStd`. The whole zone table above fits inside one
60 × 25 m building, so a second one is expansion **beyond** the current
program — doubling pressing capacity, or moving finished goods out to free
production floor — not a gap in it.

| | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Footprint | 60 × 25 m — 1,500 m² | 45 × 38 m — 1,710 m² | 3,210 m² |
| Roof PV | ~247 kWp | ~251 kWp | **~498 kWp** |
| Tightest boundary clearance | 15.7 m | 3.0 m | |

- **45 × 38 m is the sweet spot.** The plot narrows going south, so past
  ~45 m of length the width falls away faster than length adds: 40 m gives
  1,607 m², 45 m gives 1,723 m², 50 m drops to 1,558 m², and beyond 65 m
  nothing useful fits.
- **A 20 m yard** between the buildings covers fire separation and shared
  loading off the phase 1 circulation road.
- **Roof form: two-bay sawtooth, shaded rows deliberately left empty.**
  A single 38 m monopitch would be the best solar answer — 28 panel rows,
  none shaded, ~17% more yield than what is drawn, but it needs a **13.7 m**
  high wall. The sawtooth holds the high side to **10.35 m**, at a cost: each
  bay falls toward ESE onto the next bay's 3.35 m riser, so the bottom rows
  sit in shadow (the lowest is blocked below a 53° sun profile angle). Those
  two rows on the first bay are left empty rather than populated, which
  trades ~8% of the roof's yield for clean strings, no mismatch losses, and
  a maintenance walkway. Building height won this trade; revisit it if
  cladding a 13.7 m wall turns out cheaper than the lost generation.
  A 7° single pitch (11.7 m high side) sits between the two if wanted.
- **Coverage stays comfortable**: 3,210 m² is 39% of the deed area (34% of
  the mapped extent), well under the 50 to 60% typically allowed.
- **The two roofs together clear 500 kWp**, which removes the need for the
  ground-mount solar assumed further down this page.

Two caveats. Phase 2's tightest corner sits **3.0 m** from the boundary and
must be checked against the local ผังเมือง setback rule before it is taken as
real. And the plot's zoning for factory use is still unverified — that gates
phase 1 every bit as much as phase 2.

## Land: factory plot

Industrial plots typically allow 50 to 60% building coverage, and the site
needs truck access and turning, parking, the outdoor cooling tower, the
separated BESS enclosure, possible ground-mount solar, and expansion room.

- Minimum workable: **~4 rai** (6,400 m²)
- Comfortable with expansion and ground-mount solar: **~6 to 8 rai**
  (9,600 to 12,800 m²)

Separate asset: the **60 rai** forestry-classified parcel for coppice
fuelwood (see [biomass](biomass.md)), pending its title check. It is a fuel
plantation, not a factory site candidate unless the classification allows
conversion, which forestry land generally does not.

## Electrical scale

| Load | Rough figure |
|---|---|
| Pressing machinery (two Duplex systems + the Classic, central hydraulics) | ~118 kVA connected, ~73 kW average while running (Newbilt per-machine figures; the EX 35 and the Classic counted like the EX 50 and an HRP 12 until published) |
| Chiller bank (up to ~650 kW cooling) | ~210 to 325 kW electrical at the peak (~80 to 125 kW per 250 kW of cooling, air-cooled, hot season; estimate) |
| Whole-factory HVAC | ~100 to 200 kW peak (estimate) |
| Electric steam boiler bank (if chosen over biomass/LPG) | ~520 to 625 kW for 750 to 900 kg/h |
| Compressed air, lighting, IT, misc | ~30 to 50 kW |
| **Plant peak demand** | **~430 to 700 kW without electric boiler; ~950 to 1,330 kW with it** |

Grid connection: a medium-voltage connection from PEA with a transformer in
the **800 to 1,000 kVA** class without electric steam, **1,250 to 1,600 kVA**
with it; past 1,000 kW of demand the plant moves to PEA Schedule 4, whose
time-of-use rates are the same.

**Re-based for the five-press fleet** (October 2026; the concept is drawn
in [steam and cooling](steam-cooling.html)). At Newbilt's per-machine
figures the two Duplex systems and the Classic need 750 to 900 kg/h of
steam and up to ~650 kW of cooling (625 kW presses, 15 kW extruders, 12.5
kW hydraulic oil cooler) at 305 to 540 l/min of circulating water. The
peak rows assume all five presses cooling hard on a hot afternoon; the
Classic counts as one HRP 12 press plus one extruder until Newbilt states
its figures. The presses share one central hydraulic plant and one
compressed-air plant. The optional full hall (four Duplex systems and six
Classics, fourteen presses) would need up to ~1.8 MW of cooling and ~2.1
to 2.5 t/h of steam: a utility phase of its own.

Tariff: PEA Schedule 3.2.2, Medium General Service on time of use at
22 kV (the flat rate is closed to new customers): 132.93 THB/kW demand
charge on the peak-hour maximum, 4.1839 THB/kWh peak (09:00 to 22:00 on
weekdays) and 2.6037 THB/kWh off-peak, plus Ft (0.1623 THB/kWh for
September to December 2026) and VAT. Two-shift production lands at a
blended ~3.81 THB/kWh before the demand charge, roughly 4.5M to 6.8M THB a
year without electric steam, 0.7M to 1.1M of it demand charge (estimate); the deposit for the connection is
400 THB per kVA. Detail and what it decides for steam, PV and the battery
in [sustainability](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides).

Galvanics (Phase 5) is not in the table yet. By the Pheenix Alpha and
Sibert datasheets, one electroforming line plus the stamper prep machines
is ~30 kVA connected, two three-phase plating units and the rest
single-phase (see [galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)):
small against the connection, but its own feeder and meter.

## Solar and storage

- The phase 1 roof carries **~247 kWp** (425 modules on the 1,523 m²
  roof plane, per the [construction RFQ](finance/phase1-construction-rfq.md)).
  This supersedes the older rule of thumb of 150 to 200 kWp on a
  ~1,500 m² building, which the massing model has overtaken
- Northern Thailand yield ~1,400 to 1,500 kWh/kWp/yr, so 300 kWp produces
  roughly **420 to 450 MWh/yr**
- Plant consumption at mature two-shift operation: roughly **1,000 to
  1,500 MWh/yr** without electric steam, up to **~2,500 MWh/yr** with it
  (estimate), so 300 kWp covers roughly **28 to 45%** of consumption
  without electric steam, falling to **~17%** with it; a bigger array
  shifts that up
- Battery: **271 kWh** Gobel stack (ride-through, roughly
  an hour of the chiller bank's peak electrical draw; peak shaving earns
  little under PEA's time-of-use tariff, see
  [sustainability](sustainability.md#grid-tariff-pea-and-what-it-decides))

## Steam and fuel

- Boiler bank: the five-press fleet draws **~750 to 900 kg/h at 10 bar /
  180 °C** (~510 to 610 kW thermal) at Newbilt's 150 to 180 kg/h per press.
  Proposed: **two 500 kg/h modules** (B-1 with the launch press and Duplex
  system 1, B-2 with system 2 and the Classic), 1,000 kg/h installed; a
  third module for N+1 is an RFQ option, and the hall has a fourth position
  for growth ([steam and cooling](steam-cooling.html)). The 2024 Newbilt quote's
  ~400 kg/h covers one Duplex system
- Chiller bank: up to **~650 kW** of cooling; proposed **three 250 kW
  air-cooled modules** rated at 40 °C ambient, one per press stage, behind a
  plate heat exchanger with warm and cold tanks (estimate); the compound's
  fourth pad takes the N+1 module
- If biomass: **~350 to 400 t/yr** air-dry wood at ~1.0 to 1.1 million
  records a year, up to **~550 t/yr** at the start fleet's full ~1.5
  million (fuel follows records pressed, not presses installed); the 60 rai
  coppice could supply **~80 to 135 t/yr**
- If LPG: a bulk tank on site sized with the boiler bank (the ~2.5 to 5 t
  first estimated was for one Duplex; no gas pipeline in the North)

### Utility phasing: backbone once, modules with the presses

The plant starts with one press. Everything that is cheap to oversize now
and costly to change in a running plant is built for the five-press fleet
at launch; the machines that make steam, cold water and oil pressure are
bought in identical modules as presses arrive. Identical modules mean one
set of spares and one service routine, and N+1 later is one more module,
not a redesign.

| Stage | Steam | Cooling | Hydraulics and air |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch: Newbilt Single 2.1, one press | Boiler hall for four modules; T-1, WT-1, P-1; steam main and condensate return with a valved, blanked branch at every press position; **B-1** | Compound with four pads; TK-2 and TK-3 at full size; HX-1 frame for ~650 kW with plates for the launch duty; P-2 to P-4 on VFDs; supply and return mains for ~540 l/min with a valved branch per position; **CH-1** | Plant room at full size; hydraulic and air ring mains along the service trench, sized for the fleet, with a valved, capped tee per position; the Single 2.1's own unit in the plant room as the first pump set on the manifold; one compressor |
| Duplex system 1 complete (second press, EX 35) | B-1 at 60 to 72 % load | CH-1 covers ~96 % of the hot-afternoon peak (~261 kW): the cold tank and cycle overlap carry the rest, or CH-2 comes forward if the hot season arrives first | Tap the ring main; the Single 2.1 unit is already sized for the second press |
| Duplex system 2 | **B-2** | **CH-2** | A pump set added on the manifold; a second compressor if the air demand needs it |
| Classic | Carried by B-1 and B-2 | **CH-3** | A pump set, if the Classic runs from the central plant (Newbilt re-quote) |
| Options | **B-3** (N+1); **B-4** for about three more presses; ACC-1 accumulator; ECON-1 on a fired bank | **CH-4** (N+1); TC-1 dry cooler; pads for the ~350 kW frame | A standby pump set, or the Single 2.1 unit as standby |

Also built at launch: one controller that sequences the boilers, chillers
and pump sets lead and lag from the first module, and switchboard space and
feeders for every later module. Beyond four modules, the ten optional
Classics (~2.3 to 2.7 t/h, ~1.9 MW) are a utility phase of their own, on
reserved ground with its own header connection.

Two things to watch early:

- A fired 500 kg/h boiler serving one press runs at ~30 to 36 % and cycles.
  Newbilt's steam accumulator (ACC-1) steadies it; or the first module is
  electric and biomass follows at the expansion ([biomass](biomass.md)),
  at the price of the demand charge.
- One large boiler or chiller bought at launch would run poorly at part
  load, tie up capital in unused capacity and stop the plant when it fails.

The hydraulic side and its re-quote questions are in
[pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md); the plant diagram and its
operating cases in [steam and cooling](steam-cooling.html#phasing).

## People

Rough mature-operation headcount (estimate): 4 to 6 press/finishing
operators per shift, 2 to 3 galvanics, 1 to 2 mastering/cutting engineers,
1 to 2 QC, 2 maintenance, 3 to 5 admin/sales/logistics. Roughly **15 to 25
people** across shifts at maturity, fewer than half that at launch. For
galvanics, OMS's rule of thumb (one person runs about 20 stampers a day,
two from about 30) against the 8 to 20 parts a day at full capacity
points to one operator per shift
([galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)).

## Money (cross-references)

Figures in USD and THB at 1 USD = 33 THB (5 August 2026); vendor quotes
keep their original currency alongside.

- Newbilt semi-auto line: **~USD 232k (~7.7M THB)**, from the June 2024
  quote of EUR 200,500 — expired, in
  [pressing-line](equipment/pressing-line.md)
- Thai-sourced utilities, HVAC, racking, solar, BESS baseline: **~30M to
  51M THB (~USD 910k to 1.56M)** for the five-press fleet, detail in the
  [utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv)
- Not yet priced: the second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic
  (estimates in [total investment](finance/total-investment.md)),
  galvanics line, mastering/cutting room, metrology, building
  construction/fit-out, land