grabowski
d8b2c1e2db
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 46s
User (October 2026): "the factory should have more space for duplex setups than classic, we will mainly focus on special prints and not mono colours plan it to be 60/40 duplex classic". - Press hall (~870 m2) planned 60/40 by floor: four Duplex bays along the visitor corridor and six Classic positions in the second row (440 + 300 = ~740 m2 at 110 / 50 m2), the rest open for mould carts and staging; the launch plant fills one of each, growth adds Duplex systems first. Replaces "room for ten more Classics". - Full hall: 8 semi-automatic presses + 6 Classics, 57/43 by press count, ~1,250 to 1,410 records/h gross, ~3.6 to 4.7M a year on the scale.md basis (was 4.7 to 5.8M for 2 Duplex + 11 Classics); ~2.1 to 2.5 t/h steam and up to ~1.8 MW cooling, still a utility phase of its own. By hourly output the six automatic Classics still press more than the eight semi-automatic presses (estimate). - pressing-line.md, scale.md (capacity table, utilities), site-candidates .md, crane-workshop-tours.md, roadmap.md, README (the FreeCAD Payap model still draws the earlier layout; noted, not redrawn). - Calculator: preset "Full hall 60/40 (4 D + 6 C)", fleet ladder Duplex first (1+1, 2+1, 3+2, 4+3, 4+6) plus the same floor Classic-led (2+11) and Duplex-only (7+0) for comparison; plant view reserves 4 Duplex bays and 6 Classic positions. - Business plan draft 0.2 rebuilt (capacity table row, plot fit, layout). Checks: renderer 720 checks pass (node budget 2,700 for the Duplex-heavy stress preset, 60 fps), calculator regression 0 fails, level selector and page checks clean at 390 / 1024 / 1440 px dark and light; PDF 47 pages with a filled table of contents.
178 lines
10 KiB
Markdown
178 lines
10 KiB
Markdown
# Roadmap
|
|
|
|
Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated
|
|
by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move.
|
|
Rough durations are estimates.
|
|
|
|
## Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now)
|
|
|
|
These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
|
|
|
|
1. **Market validation**: test the 3.50 to 4.60 USD blended pressing price
|
|
and regional demand with Asian labels and distributors, starting at
|
|
Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest
|
|
assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the
|
|
financing case waits on it. **Partially started**: a first buy-side
|
|
data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are
|
|
recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on
|
|
per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no
|
|
HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest
|
|
argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Making Vinyl
|
|
Europe 2026 added supply-side evidence (strong interest in the
|
|
traceability approach, see the
|
|
[exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show)),
|
|
but no buyer prices yet. Carry the
|
|
open run-size question into these conversations. The
|
|
[artist platform](artist-platform.md)'s price calculator, published
|
|
early with indicative prices and an interest list but no payments,
|
|
collects that run-size distribution from everyone who configures a
|
|
record.
|
|
2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity
|
|
sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and
|
|
R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes
|
|
company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision
|
|
timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to
|
|
certificate in practice.
|
|
3. **60 rai title check**: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal
|
|
status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the
|
|
[biomass plan](biomass.md); if it clears, plant the coppice immediately
|
|
so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase.
|
|
|
|
## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window)
|
|
|
|
4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired) for the current fleet: the
|
|
Duplex with an EX 50 and an EX 35 as the Single 2.1 upgrade and as a
|
|
second system,
|
|
the Classic automatic press, and a central hydraulic supply option
|
|
([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)), with PLC/data access as a
|
|
stated purchasing requirement per the
|
|
[traceability spec](traceability.md)
|
|
5. **Pheenix Alpha**: the AD12 left the current fleet plan in October
|
|
2026 (an all-Newbilt fleet); Pheenix stays the comparison for the
|
|
Classic and a galvanics candidate (item 6). After Haarlem the CEO offered a Teams call,
|
|
reference clients and a factory visit near Stockholm; the call follows
|
|
once our questions are ready, and the next Europe trip is planned
|
|
for February 2027 ([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show))
|
|
6. **Galvanics quotes**: Digital Matrix, and Pheenix Alpha in the same
|
|
conversation as item 5 (it builds the electroforming line too), plus
|
|
OMS (Optical Media Services), named by Sibert as the alternative to a
|
|
Pheenix turnkey line (reference prices of 9 October 2026: EUR 224,000
|
|
basic and 311,000 advanced for a 4-cell wet room, installation extra; a
|
|
dedicated offer needs our plans, ideally after a visit to Baarlo), and
|
|
Sibert's itemised quotation for the stamper
|
|
prep machines (a USD 250k budget for all three is confirmed, its time,
|
|
spares, shipping and travel extra); equipment data in
|
|
[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md). In parallel,
|
|
identify the separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge
|
|
system
|
|
7. **Thai utility RFQs** from the candidates in the
|
|
[utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv), with guaranteed
|
|
northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH
|
|
floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever)
|
|
8. **Solar/BESS engineering check**: match the Gobel rack voltage to the
|
|
chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms,
|
|
confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus
|
|
9. **Site selection**: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang
|
|
(Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent
|
|
treatment and licensing simplicity) and, since October 2026, Payap
|
|
University land in Chiang Mai ([site candidates](site-candidates.md)),
|
|
screened against the
|
|
[scale requirements](scale.md): 6 to 8 rai, 1,400 to 2,000 m² single
|
|
story (including the workshop and visitor corridor), multiple tons per
|
|
m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection, and a frame able to carry an
|
|
overhead crane
|
|
|
|
## Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing)
|
|
|
|
10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate
|
|
11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must
|
|
arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from
|
|
certificate issuance
|
|
12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only
|
|
with land privileges under BOI)
|
|
13. Order the launch plant's long-lead items (October 2026: everything in
|
|
one capital round, see
|
|
[total investment](finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)):
|
|
the Sillitoe SDMS lathe (built to order; see
|
|
[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)), the Pheenix
|
|
galvanics line, the Sibert stamper-prep line, the Duplex system and the
|
|
Classic, and the first two boiler and chiller modules
|
|
14. No bridge stampers and no outsourced cutting in the launch plant
|
|
(decided October 2026). Stamper Discs and SST in Frankfurt (which
|
|
already cuts for Poy Records and offered help after Haarlem,
|
|
[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md#lacquer-cutting-service-schallplatten-schneid-technik-germany))
|
|
stay contacts for overflow and for a slipping commissioning, not a
|
|
plan
|
|
|
|
## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)
|
|
|
|
15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities,
|
|
solar and BESS installation, security systems per
|
|
[facility-security.md](facility-security.md), and the overhead crane,
|
|
maintenance workshop and visitor corridor per
|
|
[crane-workshop-tours.md](crane-workshop-tours.md) (the crane-ready
|
|
frame itself is in the construction RFQ, so it is decided before the
|
|
shell is ordered)
|
|
16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site
|
|
commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate
|
|
card)
|
|
17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry
|
|
capture (spec in [traceability.md](traceability.md), systems and build
|
|
order in [digital-factory.md](digital-factory.md); the network, servers
|
|
and edge collectors go in before the machinery arrives)
|
|
18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the
|
|
equipment, not after it
|
|
|
|
## Phase 4: Launch (the whole chain in-house)
|
|
|
|
19. Commission in sequence: cutting room and galvanics first (the presses
|
|
need their stampers), then the Duplex system, then the Classic. First
|
|
test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
|
|
20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the
|
|
regional pitch. Fan-funded campaigns on the
|
|
[artist platform](artist-platform.md) open only after these first
|
|
releases have shipped and lead times are measured
|
|
21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound
|
|
against the European references
|
|
|
|
## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)
|
|
|
|
22. Since October 2026 the Duplex system 1, the galvanics line, the
|
|
stamper prep, the cutting room and the Classic are in the launch plant
|
|
(Phases 2 to 4); items 23, 24 and 27 below are kept for the record.
|
|
What stays revenue-gated: the second Duplex system, further Classics,
|
|
the parts of the metrology stack bought from revenue, the biomass
|
|
boiler and the phase 2 building
|
|
23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep; see
|
|
[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)) with the
|
|
zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
|
|
**Open question: should this move to Phase 1?** The August 2026 market
|
|
evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press
|
|
capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's
|
|
spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the
|
|
[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md). Sibert, which would sell
|
|
into this line, advised after Haarlem to get presses, boilers,
|
|
operators and live feedback loops right first and to earn some return
|
|
before every manufacturing step is in place
|
|
([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show));
|
|
supplier advice to weigh against the market evidence, not a decision
|
|
24. Second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic automatic press, which
|
|
complete the five-press fleet ([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md))
|
|
25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
|
|
26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
|
|
27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand
|
|
shows up in Phase 4, or to host the joint audio engineering programme
|
|
with Payap University, see [Payap partnership](payap-partnership.md))
|
|
|
|
## Standing principle
|
|
|
|
Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
|
|
before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
|
|
validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
|
|
Since October 2026 the plant launches with everything in one capital
|
|
round (~161M to 292M THB, target ~216M with the levers in
|
|
[total investment](finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026));
|
|
the gates still come before the round is spent, and the growth options
|
|
(more Duplex systems first, then Classics, in a press hall laid out 60/40
|
|
for Duplex) are funded from revenue.
|