grabowski
9b26cfbf7c
quality-automation.md: the day-one per-lot tier becomes a table with an instrument class and a rough price per check (moisture analyzer, strip oven, density balance, spectrophotometer, gloss, sieves, muffle furnace, stereo microscope), plus what was missing: a lab plaque press or two-roll mill so speck, color and DSC tests do not tie up a production press; sample conditioning as part of the method at 60 to 90 % ambient humidity; magnets for metal in lots and regrind. Day-one tier ~USD 55k to 150k (estimate); Karl Fischer and the ISO 182 Thermomat as options. Mature tier priced (~120k to 240k), handheld XRF as an option, and partner labs (Payap pharmacy, CMU science) to defer it. total-investment.md: the day-one tier goes into "Added scope, not yet in the roll-up" (55k to 150k USD, 1.8M to 5.0M THB); added total now ~290k to 690k USD, about 7 to 9 % on the subtotal. Headline total unchanged.
6.1 KiB
6.1 KiB
Total Investment: Rough Picture
Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.
Currency: USD and THB. FX at 5 August 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB. Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at 1 EUR = 1.155 USD and 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. Original figures compiled July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at ~38 is where it was when they were made.
Full vision, all blocks
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote |
| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning |
| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, galvanics and stamper prep) is unpriced too |
| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row |
| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate, pricing unpublished (2021 specifications on file) |
| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 290k – 580k | 9.6M – 19.1M | estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist |
| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.5M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable |
| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 730k – 1,270k | 24.0M – 41.6M | reviewed utilities CSV, THB-native |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.2M | estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
| Land 6–8 rai, if purchased | 360k – 970k | 12.0M – 32.0M | estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
| Traceability and factory software | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate |
| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
| Subtotal | ~4.1M – 7.7M | ~135M – 254M | |
| Contingency 15% | ~0.6M – 1.2M | ~20M – 38M | |
| Total, full vision | ~4.7M – 8.9M USD | ~155M – 294M THB |
Added scope, not yet in the roll-up
Decided after the roll-up above was compiled; carried here as estimates until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the building and software lines, and the contingency on top).
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, crane, workshop and tours |
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
| Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments) | 40k – 90k | 1.3M – 3.0M | estimate, artist platform |
| PVC material lab, day-one tier (incl. plaque press and sample conditioning) | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, quality automation; not costed in the metrology block above. The mature tier (torque rheometer, DSC, FTIR, ~120k – 240k) is deferred, with partner labs in between |
| Added so far | ~290k – 690k | ~9.5M – 22.9M | about 7 to 9% on the full-vision subtotal |
Phased entry
A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly 1.7M to 2.9M USD (~57M to 95M THB):
- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full metrology deferred; the PVC lab's day-one tier is the added-scope row above
- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
- Galvanics, automated presses, full metrology, and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions
The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for exactly this reason.
What moves the number
- BOI: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see boi.md)
- Buy vs lease on land and building swings roughly 1.0M to 2.1M USD (~34M to 69M THB) of upfront capital, and also moves the launch date by about three quarters — see project-timeline.md
- Biggest uncertainty bands: metrology (partly a choice of ambition), the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the automated presses (single unverified price point), and land
- Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here. Revenue is mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see project-timeline.md). A 10% move in EUR/THB between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in equipment-suppliers.md lists who to ask