grabowski
3d9bb9af53
Decisions (Alexander, 26 Oct 2026): a second company, not the plant company, holds the catalogue; it owns and licenses titles; language models are self-hosted on premises. catalogue-intelligence.md reworked: the catalogue company is a customer of the plant at arm's length (orders through intake and portal, the plant's price list, standby pressing offered to every customer, no moved dates, no data either way, metal in the archive on customer terms; Revenue Code section 71 bis, 200M THB disclosure threshold per the OECD profile), its own ERPNext site, the run-size rule on the plant's price instead of its direct cost, its own advisor instance on hardware it controls, phasing, cost borne by it, risks, open decisions (shareholders and Poy Records, working capital, standby terms, where its systems run). Mirrors: README (planning bullet, project status), roadmap item 28, digital-factory (tool rule, language-model row in the open-source table), artist-platform (standby pressing proposal, pre-orders), production-timeline, revenue-model, plant-assistant (self-hosted on premises; catalogue data removed; advisor as a separate instance).
195 lines
11 KiB
Markdown
195 lines
11 KiB
Markdown
# Roadmap
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Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated
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by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move.
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Rough durations are estimates.
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## Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now)
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These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
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1. **Market validation**: test the blended pressing price (3.76 to 5.27
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USD at the planned 60 % specials; 3.50 to 4.60 at a standard-heavy mix)
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and regional demand (~0.74M records a year in both Plan A and Plan B, and
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when the second Duplex follows from revenue) in [total investment](finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026),
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with Asian labels and distributors, starting at
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Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest
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assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the
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financing case waits on it. **Partially started**: a first buy-side
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data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are
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recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on
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per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no
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HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest
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argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Making Vinyl
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Europe 2026 added supply-side evidence (strong interest in the
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traceability approach, see the
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[exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show)),
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but no buyer prices yet. Carry the
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open run-size question into these conversations. The
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[artist platform](artist-platform.md)'s price calculator, published
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early with indicative prices and an interest list but no payments,
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collects that run-size distribution from everyone who configures a
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record.
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2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity
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sub-code, and structure the application around the measures that still
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stack: automation and R&D, and the battery if it qualifies. Solar
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installations lost BOI promotion on 1 July 2025 (Announcement 3/2568,
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see [boi.md](boi.md)), so the roof array is not part of the
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application. The application precedes
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company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision
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timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to
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certificate in practice.
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3. **60 rai title check**: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal
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status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the
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[biomass plan](biomass.md); if it clears, plant the coppice immediately
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so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase.
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## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window)
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4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired) for the current fleet: the
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Duplex with an EX 50 and an EX 35 as the Single 2.1 upgrade and as a
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second system,
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the Classic automatic press, and a central hydraulic supply option
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([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)), with PLC/data access as a
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stated purchasing requirement per the
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[traceability spec](traceability.md)
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5. **Pheenix Alpha**: the AD12 left the current fleet plan in October
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2026 (an all-Newbilt fleet); Pheenix stays the comparison for the
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Classic and a galvanics candidate (item 6). After Haarlem the CEO offered a Teams call,
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reference clients and a factory visit near Stockholm; the call follows
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once our questions are ready, and the next Europe trip is planned
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for February 2027 ([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show)).
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ResurRec's new Japan plant appears to run AD12s (photos, October 2026,
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[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md#resurrec-japan-october-2026)), a possible reference in Asia
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6. **Galvanics quotes**: Digital Matrix, and Pheenix Alpha in the same
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conversation as item 5 (it builds the electroforming line too), plus
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OMS (Optical Media Services), named by Sibert as the alternative to a
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Pheenix turnkey line (reference prices of 9 October 2026: EUR 224,000
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basic and 311,000 advanced for a 4-cell wet room, installation extra; a
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dedicated offer needs our plans, ideally after a visit to Baarlo), and
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Sibert's itemised quotation for the stamper
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prep machines (a USD 250k budget for all three is confirmed, its time,
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spares, shipping and travel extra); equipment data in
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[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md). In parallel,
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identify the separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge
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system
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7. **Thai utility RFQs** from the candidates in the
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[utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv), with guaranteed
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northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH
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floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever)
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8. **Solar/BESS engineering check**: match the Gobel rack voltage to the
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chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms,
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confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus
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9. **Site selection**: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang
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(Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent
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treatment and licensing simplicity) and, since October 2026, Payap
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University land in Chiang Mai ([site candidates](site-candidates.md)),
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screened against the
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[scale requirements](scale.md): 6 to 8 rai, 1,400 to 2,000 m² single
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story (including the workshop and visitor corridor), multiple tons per
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m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection, and a frame able to carry an
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overhead crane
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## Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing)
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10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate
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11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must
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arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from
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certificate issuance
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12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only
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with land privileges under BOI)
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13. Order the launch plant's long-lead items (October 2026: everything in
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one capital round, see
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[total investment](finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)):
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the Sillitoe SDMS lathe (built to order; see
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[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)), the Pheenix
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galvanics line, the Sibert stamper-prep line, the Duplex system and the
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Classic, and the first two boiler and chiller modules
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14. No bridge stampers and no outsourced cutting in the launch plant
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(decided October 2026). Stamper Discs and SST in Frankfurt (which
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already cuts for Poy Records and offered help after Haarlem,
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[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md#lacquer-cutting-service-schallplatten-schneid-technik-germany))
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stay contacts for overflow and for a slipping commissioning, not a
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plan
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## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)
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15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities,
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solar and BESS installation, security systems per
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[facility-security.md](facility-security.md), and the overhead crane,
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maintenance workshop and visitor corridor per
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[crane-workshop-tours.md](crane-workshop-tours.md) (the crane-ready
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frame itself is in the construction RFQ, so it is decided before the
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shell is ordered)
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16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site
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commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate
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card)
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17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry
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capture (spec in [traceability.md](traceability.md), systems and build
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order in [digital-factory.md](digital-factory.md); the network, servers
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and edge collectors go in before the machinery arrives)
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18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the
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equipment, not after it. Procedures are written as ERPNext Quality
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Procedures during commissioning, the knowledge base the
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[plant assistant](plant-assistant.md) answers from
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## Phase 4: Launch (the whole chain in-house)
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19. Commission in sequence: cutting room and galvanics first (the presses
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need their stampers), then the Duplex system, then the Classic. First
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test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
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20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the
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regional pitch. Fan-funded campaigns on the
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[artist platform](artist-platform.md) open only after these first
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releases have shipped and lead times are measured
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21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound
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against the European references
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## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)
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22. Since October 2026 the Duplex system 1, the galvanics line, the
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stamper prep, the cutting room and the Classic are in the launch plant
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(Phases 2 to 4); items 23, 24 and 27 below are kept for the record.
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What stays revenue-gated: the second Duplex system, further Classics,
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the parts of the metrology stack bought from revenue, the biomass
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boiler and the phase 2 building
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23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep; see
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[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)) with the
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zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
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**Open question: should this move to Phase 1?** The August 2026 market
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evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press
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capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's
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spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the
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[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md). Sibert, which would sell
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into this line, advised after Haarlem to get presses, boilers,
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operators and live feedback loops right first and to earn some return
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before every manufacturing step is in place
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([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show));
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supplier advice to weigh against the market evidence, not a decision
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24. Second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic automatic press, which
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complete the five-press fleet ([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md))
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25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
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26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
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27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand
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shows up in Phase 4, or to host the joint audio engineering programme
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with Payap University, see [Payap partnership](payap-partnership.md))
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28. **Own catalogue** (October 2026): a second company owns and licenses
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titles and has them pressed at the plant as a customer, in standby
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runs on idle press time, steered by a sales map and a demand model
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([own catalogue](catalogue-intelligence.md)). The data work starts in
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Phase 0 with Poy Records' existing sales; the company, its
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shareholders and its working capital are settled before the build
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## Standing principle
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Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
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before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
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validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
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Since October 2026 the plant launches with everything in one capital
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round (~168M to 296M THB with contingency; for the investor Plan A at
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~180M and Plan B at ~215M THB without it, in
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[total investment](finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026));
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the gates still come before the round is spent, and the growth options
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(more Duplex systems first, then Classics, in a press hall laid out for
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five Duplex systems and four Classics) are funded from revenue.
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