grabowski
917a3eb933
New docs/crane-workshop-tours.md: a 5 t single-girder EOT crane over the whole production compartment (stops at the warehouse fire wall), a machine door and crane-served workshop/machine bay at the ramp end, and a glazed ground-level visitor corridor along the car-park elevation with stations in process order, its own air and acoustic glazing so tours need no PPE. Covers what each changes in the shell (crane-ready frame, hook height under the 7.0 m eave, no full-height cross walls in the crane zone, room lids and crane hatches), safety, costs and open decisions. Propagated: construction RFQ (crane-ready frame, new section 1c, machine door, accessible 1:12 entrance now required), scale zone table (+210 to 280 m2, total ~1,400 to 2,000 m2), facility security, worker safety, roadmap items 9 and 15, total investment added-scope table, README.
122 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
122 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
# Roadmap
|
|
|
|
Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated
|
|
by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move.
|
|
Rough durations are estimates.
|
|
|
|
## Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now)
|
|
|
|
These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
|
|
|
|
1. **Market validation**: test the 3.50 to 4.60 USD blended pressing price
|
|
and regional demand with Asian labels and distributors, starting at
|
|
Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest
|
|
assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the
|
|
financing case waits on it. **Partially started**: a first buy-side
|
|
data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are
|
|
recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on
|
|
per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no
|
|
HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest
|
|
argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Carry the
|
|
open run-size question into these conversations.
|
|
2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity
|
|
sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and
|
|
R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes
|
|
company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision
|
|
timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to
|
|
certificate in practice.
|
|
3. **60 rai title check**: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal
|
|
status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the
|
|
[biomass plan](biomass.md); if it clears, plant the coppice immediately
|
|
so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase.
|
|
|
|
## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window)
|
|
|
|
4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired), with PLC/data access as a
|
|
stated purchasing requirement per the
|
|
[traceability spec](traceability.md)
|
|
5. **Pheenix Alpha**: current metric datasheet and quotes for the AD12 and
|
|
AD12 Manual, evaluating the single-vendor option against Newbilt for
|
|
the semi-auto half
|
|
6. **Digital Matrix**: galvanics line quote; in parallel, identify the
|
|
separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge system
|
|
7. **Thai utility RFQs** from the candidates in the
|
|
[utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv), with guaranteed
|
|
northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH
|
|
floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever)
|
|
8. **Solar/BESS engineering check**: match the Gobel rack voltage to the
|
|
chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms,
|
|
confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus
|
|
9. **Site selection**: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang
|
|
(Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent
|
|
treatment and licensing simplicity), screened against the
|
|
[scale requirements](scale.md): 6 to 8 rai, 1,400 to 2,000 m² single
|
|
story (including the workshop and visitor corridor), multiple tons per
|
|
m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection, and a frame able to carry an
|
|
overhead crane
|
|
|
|
## Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing)
|
|
|
|
10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate
|
|
11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must
|
|
arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from
|
|
certificate issuance
|
|
12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only
|
|
with land privileges under BOI)
|
|
13. Order long-lead items: mastering lathe (Agnew or Sillitoe, both built
|
|
to order, see [vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)),
|
|
stamper-prep machines, first utility packages
|
|
14. Engage Stamper Discs for the bridge-stamper relationship with written
|
|
turnaround SLAs
|
|
|
|
## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)
|
|
|
|
15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities,
|
|
solar and BESS installation, security systems per
|
|
[facility-security.md](facility-security.md), and the overhead crane,
|
|
maintenance workshop and visitor corridor per
|
|
[crane-workshop-tours.md](crane-workshop-tours.md) (the crane-ready
|
|
frame itself is in the construction RFQ, so it is decided before the
|
|
shell is ordered)
|
|
16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site
|
|
commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate
|
|
card)
|
|
17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry
|
|
capture (spec in [traceability.md](traceability.md), systems and build
|
|
order in [digital-factory.md](digital-factory.md); the network, servers
|
|
and edge collectors go in before the machinery arrives)
|
|
18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the
|
|
equipment, not after it
|
|
|
|
## Phase 4: Launch (pressing with bridge stampers)
|
|
|
|
19. First test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
|
|
20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the
|
|
regional pitch
|
|
21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound
|
|
against the European references
|
|
|
|
## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)
|
|
|
|
22. Duplex expansion (second press and extruder are already quoted options)
|
|
23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep) with
|
|
the zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
|
|
**Open question: should this move to Phase 1?** The August 2026 market
|
|
evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press
|
|
capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's
|
|
spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the
|
|
[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md)
|
|
24. Automated press line (the 50/50 fleet target)
|
|
25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
|
|
26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
|
|
27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand
|
|
shows up in Phase 4)
|
|
|
|
## Standing principle
|
|
|
|
Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
|
|
before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
|
|
validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
|
|
The phased entry (~1.7M to 2.9M USD) is the default path; the full vision
|
|
(~4.7M to 8.9M USD) is reached through it, not instead of it.
|