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docs/equipment/pheenix-alpha/: the four Pheenix Alpha electroforming flyers (2024: PASU silvering, PPPU pre-plating, PDPU dual-cell plating, PMPB passivation bench), renamed from their download hashes. docs/equipment/sibert/: the VSP, VSF and VSC technical specifications (2021), plus Sibert's 2008-09 optical-disc SPS literature and the 2008 Blu-ray stamper characteristics paper in sps-optical-disc-2009/. Two byte-identical duplicates in the download were dropped. New docs/equipment/galvanics.md, the metal-path counterpart to pressing-line.md: datasheet tables for both ranges and what they change. Pheenix is a second turnkey galvanics vendor next to Digital Matrix and can quote lacquer-to-record as one vendor; neither range includes water treatment. Utilities from the sheets (~27 kVA connected per line, DI water, 12-20 C cooling water, extraction sizes), ~5.6 m2 of footprint, and a cell count estimate (one PDPU at the low end, two at the high end). The Sibert machines are single-phase, 200/250/600 kg on castors, centre manually and list no data interface; the VSC locates on the punched hole; the finisher's water carries nickel. Weights, cycle times, prices and mould fit are listed as quote questions. Backlinks and small updates: README (bullet, layout tree, vendor list), roadmap items 6 and 23, vendor landscape, supplier map, exhibitor briefing (on-file notes, Sibert three-phase question answered), digital factory (Pheenix PLC data, Sibert data question, RFQ clause 5), quality automation (hardness on the centre slug, BD paper as the acceptance-spec model), sustainability (finisher water), total investment block label (numbers unchanged), scale (galvanics feeder note), crane weight table, process flow, pressing-line stamper-fit question, plant page detail lines.
133 lines
6.9 KiB
Markdown
133 lines
6.9 KiB
Markdown
# Roadmap
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Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated
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by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move.
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Rough durations are estimates.
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## Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now)
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These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
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1. **Market validation**: test the 3.50 to 4.60 USD blended pressing price
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and regional demand with Asian labels and distributors, starting at
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Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest
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assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the
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financing case waits on it. **Partially started**: a first buy-side
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data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are
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recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on
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per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no
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HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest
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argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Carry the
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open run-size question into these conversations. The
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[artist platform](artist-platform.md)'s price calculator, published
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early with indicative prices and an interest list but no payments,
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collects that run-size distribution from everyone who configures a
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record.
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2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity
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sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and
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R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes
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company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision
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timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to
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certificate in practice.
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3. **60 rai title check**: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal
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status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the
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[biomass plan](biomass.md); if it clears, plant the coppice immediately
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so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase.
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## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window)
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4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired), with PLC/data access as a
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stated purchasing requirement per the
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[traceability spec](traceability.md)
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5. **Pheenix Alpha**: current metric datasheet and quotes for the AD12 and
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AD12 Manual, evaluating the single-vendor option against Newbilt for
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the semi-auto half
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6. **Galvanics quotes**: Digital Matrix, and Pheenix Alpha in the same
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conversation as item 5 (it builds the electroforming line too), plus
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Sibert prices for the stamper prep machines; equipment data in
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[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md). In parallel,
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identify the separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge
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system
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7. **Thai utility RFQs** from the candidates in the
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[utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv), with guaranteed
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northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH
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floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever)
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8. **Solar/BESS engineering check**: match the Gobel rack voltage to the
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chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms,
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confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus
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9. **Site selection**: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang
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(Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent
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treatment and licensing simplicity), screened against the
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[scale requirements](scale.md): 6 to 8 rai, 1,400 to 2,000 m² single
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story (including the workshop and visitor corridor), multiple tons per
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m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection, and a frame able to carry an
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overhead crane
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## Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing)
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10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate
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11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must
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arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from
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certificate issuance
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12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only
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with land privileges under BOI)
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13. Order long-lead items: mastering lathe (Agnew or Sillitoe, both built
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to order, see [vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)),
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stamper-prep machines, first utility packages
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14. Engage Stamper Discs for the bridge-stamper relationship with written
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turnaround SLAs
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## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)
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15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities,
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solar and BESS installation, security systems per
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[facility-security.md](facility-security.md), and the overhead crane,
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maintenance workshop and visitor corridor per
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[crane-workshop-tours.md](crane-workshop-tours.md) (the crane-ready
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frame itself is in the construction RFQ, so it is decided before the
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shell is ordered)
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16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site
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commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate
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card)
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17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry
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capture (spec in [traceability.md](traceability.md), systems and build
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order in [digital-factory.md](digital-factory.md); the network, servers
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and edge collectors go in before the machinery arrives)
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18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the
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equipment, not after it
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## Phase 4: Launch (pressing with bridge stampers)
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19. First test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
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20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the
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regional pitch. Fan-funded campaigns on the
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[artist platform](artist-platform.md) open only after these first
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releases have shipped and lead times are measured
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21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound
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against the European references
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## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)
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22. Duplex expansion (second press and extruder are already quoted options)
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23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep; see
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[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)) with the
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zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
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**Open question: should this move to Phase 1?** The August 2026 market
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evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press
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capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's
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spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the
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[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md)
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24. Automated press line (the 50/50 fleet target)
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25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
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26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
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27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand
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shows up in Phase 4)
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## Standing principle
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Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
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before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
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validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
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The phased entry (~1.7M to 2.9M USD) is the default path; the full vision
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(~4.7M to 8.9M USD) is reached through it, not instead of it.
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