grabowski
4607a4da58
New docs/artist-platform.md: upload master and artwork with automatic audio, artwork and rights checks; an itemised price calculator for every customer (per-title vs per-copy lines, price-per-copy curve, lead time from the production-timeline quote table, versioned price list); and fan-funded campaigns that press and dropship per fan once the goal is reached, refund otherwise. Covers goal maths, payments (charge into a ring-fenced account, CNX as seller of record, legal opinion first; the Qrates failure as the design rule), repress pre-orders, architecture on the cnx-factory stack with the public side on a fleet machine, PDPA, phasing (calculator public early as a run-size probe, campaigns only after first releases ship), cost and open decisions. Backlinks from README, process flow, production timeline, revenue model, digital factory and roadmap items 1 and 20; total investment added-scope table gains the platform line.
91 lines
5.6 KiB
Markdown
91 lines
5.6 KiB
Markdown
# Total Investment: Rough Picture
|
||
|
||
Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked
|
||
"estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the
|
||
researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide
|
||
margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.
|
||
|
||
**Currency: USD and THB.** FX at 5 August 2026: **1 USD = 33 THB**.
|
||
Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency
|
||
wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at
|
||
**1 EUR = 1.155 USD** and **1 GBP = 1.35 USD**. Original figures compiled
|
||
July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at
|
||
~38 is where it was when they were made.
|
||
|
||
## Full vision, all blocks
|
||
|
||
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|
||
|---|---|---|---|
|
||
| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote |
|
||
| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning |
|
||
| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research |
|
||
| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row |
|
||
| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate, pricing unpublished |
|
||
| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 290k – 580k | 9.6M – 19.1M | estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist |
|
||
| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.5M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable |
|
||
| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 730k – 1,270k | 24.0M – 41.6M | reviewed [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv), THB-native |
|
||
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.2M | estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
|
||
| Land 6–8 rai, if purchased | 360k – 970k | 12.0M – 32.0M | estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
|
||
| Traceability and factory software | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate |
|
||
| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
|
||
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
|
||
| Subtotal | ~4.1M – 7.7M | ~135M – 254M | |
|
||
| Contingency 15% | ~0.6M – 1.2M | ~20M – 38M | |
|
||
| **Total, full vision** | **~4.7M – 8.9M USD** | **~155M – 294M THB** | |
|
||
|
||
### Added scope, not yet in the roll-up
|
||
|
||
Decided after the roll-up above was compiled; carried here as estimates
|
||
until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the building and
|
||
software lines, and the contingency on top).
|
||
|
||
| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
|
||
|---|---|---|---|
|
||
| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
|
||
| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
|
||
| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
|
||
| Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments) | 40k – 90k | 1.3M – 3.0M | estimate, [artist platform](../artist-platform.md) |
|
||
| **Added so far** | **~235k – 540k** | **~7.7M – 17.9M** | about 6 to 7% on the full-vision subtotal |
|
||
|
||
## Phased entry
|
||
|
||
A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly **1.7M to 2.9M USD
|
||
(~57M to 95M THB)**:
|
||
|
||
- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
|
||
- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
|
||
- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full
|
||
metrology deferred
|
||
- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
|
||
- Galvanics, automated presses, full metrology, and the biomass boiler
|
||
follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions
|
||
|
||
The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the
|
||
bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass
|
||
steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for
|
||
exactly this reason.
|
||
|
||
## What moves the number
|
||
|
||
- **BOI**: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment
|
||
blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption
|
||
headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see
|
||
[boi.md](../boi.md))
|
||
- **Buy vs lease** on land and building swings roughly **1.0M to 2.1M
|
||
USD (~34M to 69M THB)** of upfront capital, and also moves the launch
|
||
date by about three quarters — see
|
||
[project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)
|
||
- **Biggest uncertainty bands**: metrology (partly a choice of ambition),
|
||
the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the
|
||
automated presses (single unverified price point), and land
|
||
- **Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here.** Revenue is
|
||
mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and
|
||
the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged
|
||
against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see
|
||
[project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)). A 10% move in EUR/THB
|
||
between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line
|
||
alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
|
||
- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in
|
||
[equipment-suppliers.md](../suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md) lists who
|
||
to ask
|