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Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 52s
- Plan B now starts like Plan A with one Duplex system and one Classic, but takes none of the six levers: owned solar and battery (with the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor corridor, cassette and CD-R, the bought crane and Thai-supplied utilities (user, 17 October 2026). ~193.8M THB before the reserve, ~209M with it (~150M to 268M), ~32M (~18 %) more than Plan A; the second Duplex is a growth step from revenue in both (~15.4M THB, estimate). - total-investment.md "Two plans" re-based (heading and anchor now "B at ~210M THB", README and roadmap links updated); revenue-model.md operating pictures: same volume and EBITDA as Plan A, depreciation on Plan B's capital (operating profit 1.26M USD central, payback ~3.7 yr); the extra earns nothing in the modelled table, which the docs say. - Calculator: Plan B preset = the launch plant with contingency kept out (EBITDA 2.07M USD, cash payback year ~4.3, IRR ~21 %); budget card marks 180M and 180M plus 25 %; preset label "Plan B (~210M, all in)". - Business plan draft 0.3, both versions rebuilt: every Plan B branch of the three content files rewritten; renders regenerated with the isometric view turned to the front of the site (road, car park, office, corridor facade) for the cover and Figures 8 to 10.
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182 lines
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# Roadmap
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Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated
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by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move.
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Rough durations are estimates.
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## Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now)
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These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
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1. **Market validation**: test the blended pressing price (3.76 to 5.27
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USD at the planned 60 % specials; 3.50 to 4.60 at a standard-heavy mix)
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and regional demand (~0.74M records a year in both Plan A and Plan B, and
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when the second Duplex follows from revenue) in [total investment](finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026),
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with Asian labels and distributors, starting at
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Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest
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assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the
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financing case waits on it. **Partially started**: a first buy-side
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data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are
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recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on
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per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no
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HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest
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argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Making Vinyl
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Europe 2026 added supply-side evidence (strong interest in the
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traceability approach, see the
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[exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show)),
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but no buyer prices yet. Carry the
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open run-size question into these conversations. The
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[artist platform](artist-platform.md)'s price calculator, published
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early with indicative prices and an interest list but no payments,
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collects that run-size distribution from everyone who configures a
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record.
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2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity
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sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and
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R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes
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company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision
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timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to
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certificate in practice.
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3. **60 rai title check**: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal
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status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the
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[biomass plan](biomass.md); if it clears, plant the coppice immediately
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so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase.
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## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window)
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4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired) for the current fleet: the
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Duplex with an EX 50 and an EX 35 as the Single 2.1 upgrade and as a
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second system,
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the Classic automatic press, and a central hydraulic supply option
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([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md)), with PLC/data access as a
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stated purchasing requirement per the
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[traceability spec](traceability.md)
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5. **Pheenix Alpha**: the AD12 left the current fleet plan in October
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2026 (an all-Newbilt fleet); Pheenix stays the comparison for the
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Classic and a galvanics candidate (item 6). After Haarlem the CEO offered a Teams call,
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reference clients and a factory visit near Stockholm; the call follows
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once our questions are ready, and the next Europe trip is planned
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for February 2027 ([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show))
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6. **Galvanics quotes**: Digital Matrix, and Pheenix Alpha in the same
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conversation as item 5 (it builds the electroforming line too), plus
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OMS (Optical Media Services), named by Sibert as the alternative to a
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Pheenix turnkey line (reference prices of 9 October 2026: EUR 224,000
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basic and 311,000 advanced for a 4-cell wet room, installation extra; a
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dedicated offer needs our plans, ideally after a visit to Baarlo), and
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Sibert's itemised quotation for the stamper
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prep machines (a USD 250k budget for all three is confirmed, its time,
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spares, shipping and travel extra); equipment data in
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[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md). In parallel,
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identify the separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge
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system
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7. **Thai utility RFQs** from the candidates in the
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[utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv), with guaranteed
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northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH
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floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever)
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8. **Solar/BESS engineering check**: match the Gobel rack voltage to the
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chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms,
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confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus
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9. **Site selection**: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang
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(Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent
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treatment and licensing simplicity) and, since October 2026, Payap
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University land in Chiang Mai ([site candidates](site-candidates.md)),
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screened against the
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[scale requirements](scale.md): 6 to 8 rai, 1,400 to 2,000 m² single
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story (including the workshop and visitor corridor), multiple tons per
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m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection, and a frame able to carry an
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overhead crane
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## Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing)
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10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate
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11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must
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arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from
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certificate issuance
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12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only
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with land privileges under BOI)
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13. Order the launch plant's long-lead items (October 2026: everything in
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one capital round, see
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[total investment](finance/total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)):
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the Sillitoe SDMS lathe (built to order; see
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[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md)), the Pheenix
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galvanics line, the Sibert stamper-prep line, the Duplex system and the
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Classic, and the first two boiler and chiller modules
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14. No bridge stampers and no outsourced cutting in the launch plant
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(decided October 2026). Stamper Discs and SST in Frankfurt (which
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already cuts for Poy Records and offered help after Haarlem,
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[vendor landscape](suppliers/vendor-landscape.md#lacquer-cutting-service-schallplatten-schneid-technik-germany))
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stay contacts for overflow and for a slipping commissioning, not a
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plan
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## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)
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15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities,
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solar and BESS installation, security systems per
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[facility-security.md](facility-security.md), and the overhead crane,
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maintenance workshop and visitor corridor per
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[crane-workshop-tours.md](crane-workshop-tours.md) (the crane-ready
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frame itself is in the construction RFQ, so it is decided before the
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shell is ordered)
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16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site
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commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate
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card)
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17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry
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capture (spec in [traceability.md](traceability.md), systems and build
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order in [digital-factory.md](digital-factory.md); the network, servers
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and edge collectors go in before the machinery arrives)
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18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the
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equipment, not after it
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## Phase 4: Launch (the whole chain in-house)
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19. Commission in sequence: cutting room and galvanics first (the presses
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need their stampers), then the Duplex system, then the Classic. First
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test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
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20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the
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regional pitch. Fan-funded campaigns on the
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[artist platform](artist-platform.md) open only after these first
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releases have shipped and lead times are measured
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21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound
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against the European references
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## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)
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22. Since October 2026 the Duplex system 1, the galvanics line, the
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stamper prep, the cutting room and the Classic are in the launch plant
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(Phases 2 to 4); items 23, 24 and 27 below are kept for the record.
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What stays revenue-gated: the second Duplex system, further Classics,
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the parts of the metrology stack bought from revenue, the biomass
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boiler and the phase 2 building
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23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep; see
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[galvanics and stamper prep](equipment/galvanics.md)) with the
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zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
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**Open question: should this move to Phase 1?** The August 2026 market
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evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press
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capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's
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spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the
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[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md). Sibert, which would sell
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into this line, advised after Haarlem to get presses, boilers,
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operators and live feedback loops right first and to earn some return
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before every manufacturing step is in place
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([exhibitor briefing](suppliers/making-vinyl-europe-2026-exhibitors.md#after-the-show));
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supplier advice to weigh against the market evidence, not a decision
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24. Second Duplex system and the Newbilt Classic automatic press, which
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complete the five-press fleet ([pressing line](equipment/pressing-line.md))
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25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
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26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
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27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand
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shows up in Phase 4, or to host the joint audio engineering programme
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with Payap University, see [Payap partnership](payap-partnership.md))
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## Standing principle
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Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
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before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
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validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
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Since October 2026 the plant launches with everything in one capital
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round (~161M to 285M THB with contingency; for the investor Plan A at
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~180M and Plan B at ~210M THB without it, in
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[total investment](finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026));
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the gates still come before the round is spent, and the growth options
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(more Duplex systems first, then Classics, in a press hall laid out for
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five Duplex systems and four Classics) are funded from revenue.
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