grabowski
20c8d283d5
Currency - Base currency moves from EUR to USD and THB throughout. Rates at 5 Aug 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB, 1 EUR = 1.155 USD, 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. EUR/THB lands at ~38, so existing THB research needed no change. - Vendor quotes keep their original currency with a USD/THB equivalent alongside, so they stay checkable against the source PDFs. - Full vision ~4.7-8.9M USD; phased entry ~1.7-2.9M USD. New documents - production-timeline.md: order turnaround stage by stage. Launch 8-14 weeks, mature 5-10, repress 2-3. Quantifies the in-house galvanics turnaround claim the repo had asserted without a number, and flags artwork as an unmodelled fourth approval gate. - project-timeline.md: calendar to first paying release, ~Q4 2028. Critical path is BOI certificate to press order to build to commissioning. Two findings: Newbilt build time is absent from the repo yet carries ~40% of the schedule, and the BOI rule may be over-serialised since duty exemption attaches at importation rather than at contract signature. First market data (ResurRec, Bangkok) - Invoice-derived prices, a factory tour, and a confirmed fleet of one Newbilt Classic 12" automatic plus one semi-automatic. - Price ladder recorded at 300/500/1000-3000/3000+ units. Decomposes to roughly 34-50k THB fixed per title and 535-780 THB variable per unit, which is 4-7x the price this model assumes. - The incumbent presses 230-350k records/yr but buys every stamper as an import. That single constraint plausibly explains their 150-unit floor, their flat discount ladder and their large-run lead time, and it is what an in-house galvanics line attacks. Logged as an open question on whether galvanics should move from phase 5 to phase 1. - Inferences are marked as inferences; the whole set is one buyer and one plant, and the model is deliberately left unrebased until a second data point exists. Corrections - Gross margin arithmetic did not follow from its own inputs. Restated as ~1.95 USD at the midpoint with the 0.75-3.15 spread shown; the previous "40 to 55%" was not supported. - Direct cost low total 1.50 to 1.45 USD; contingency THB high 40M to 38M. - README indexes the construction RFQ, which was missing.
113 lines
5.7 KiB
Markdown
113 lines
5.7 KiB
Markdown
# Roadmap
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Next steps in dependency order. No calendar dates yet: each phase is gated
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by the one before it, and the clock starts when the first-phase items move.
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Rough durations are estimates.
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## Phase 0: Validate and clear the gates (now)
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These three run in parallel and gate everything downstream:
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1. **Market validation**: test the 3.50 to 4.60 USD blended pressing price
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and regional demand with Asian labels and distributors, starting at
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Making Vinyl in Haarlem (Alexander and Simona). This is the biggest
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assumption in the [revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md); the
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financing case waits on it. **Partially started**: a first buy-side
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data point and a factory tour (ResurRec Bangkok, August 2026) are
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recorded in the revenue model. The prices disagree with the model on
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per-title services and run size; the tour showed no plating and no
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HVAC anywhere in the incumbent's operation, which is the strongest
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argument yet for pulling galvanics forward from Phase 5. Carry the
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open run-size question into these conversations.
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2. **BOI track**: engage a BOI-registered consultant, confirm the activity
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sub-code, and structure the application so the solar, automation, and
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R&D measures stack (see [boi.md](boi.md)). The application precedes
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company incorporation and every machinery purchase order. Decision
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timeline once filed: roughly 40 working days, 4 to 6 months to
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certificate in practice.
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3. **60 rai title check**: verify the forestry-classified parcel's legal
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status (Chanote vs Sor Por Kor vs National Forest Reserve). Gates the
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[biomass plan](biomass.md); if it clears, plant the coppice immediately
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so first harvest (2 to 4 years) meets the expansion phase.
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## Phase 1: Quotes and site (parallel with the BOI decision window)
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4. **Newbilt re-quote** (2024 offer expired), with PLC/data access as a
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stated purchasing requirement per the
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[traceability spec](traceability.md)
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5. **Pheenix Alpha**: current metric datasheet and quotes for the AD12 and
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AD12 Manual, evaluating the single-vendor option against Newbilt for
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the semi-auto half
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6. **Digital Matrix**: galvanics line quote; in parallel, identify the
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separate water-treatment vendor for the zero-discharge system
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7. **Thai utility RFQs** from the candidates in the
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[utilities CSV](finance/utilities-investment.csv), with guaranteed
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northern service response as a line item; resolve the 35% vs 45% RH
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floor question (the biggest HVAC cost lever)
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8. **Solar/BESS engineering check**: match the Gobel rack voltage to the
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chosen Deye model, request Gobel certifications and warranty terms,
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confirm the EPC (Solar Nicolo or other) warrants a mixed-vendor DC bus
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9. **Site selection**: candidate buildings/plots in Lamphun and Lampang
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(Northern Region Industrial Estate first for its shared effluent
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treatment and licensing simplicity), screened against the
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[scale requirements](scale.md): 6 to 8 rai, 1,200 to 1,700 m² single
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story, multiple tons per m² slab, 500 to 1,000 kVA connection
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## Phase 2: Commit (after BOI certificate and validated pricing)
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10. Finalize company incorporation under the promotion certificate
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11. Sign the pressing-line order (Newbilt or Pheenix path); machinery must
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arrive within the ~30-month duty-free import window that runs from
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certificate issuance
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12. Secure the site (lease preferred for the phased entry; purchase only
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with land privileges under BOI)
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13. Order long-lead items: mastering lathe (Agnew build times are long),
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stamper-prep machines, first utility packages
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14. Engage Stamper Discs for the bridge-stamper relationship with written
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turnaround SLAs
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## Phase 3: Build and commission (~6 to 12 months after commitment)
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15. Building fit-out: slab verification, HVAC, clean zones, utilities,
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solar and BESS installation, security systems per
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[facility-security.md](facility-security.md)
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16. Machinery installation and vendor commissioning (Newbilt on-site
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commissioning is mandatory for warranty; budget per the service rate
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card)
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17. Traceability software v1: intake, batch genealogy, press telemetry
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capture (spec in [traceability.md](traceability.md))
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18. Hire and train the launch team; safety program stands up with the
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equipment, not after it
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## Phase 4: Launch (pressing with bridge stampers)
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19. First test pressings, QC baselines, reject-rate shakedown
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20. First paying releases; validate turnaround and quality against the
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regional pitch
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21. PVC lab per-lot gate live; begin qualifying Thai/regional compound
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against the European references
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## Phase 5: Expand (revenue-gated)
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22. Duplex expansion (second press and extruder are already quoted options)
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23. Galvanics line in-house (silvering, electroforming, stamper prep) with
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the zero-discharge water plant; Stamper Discs moves to overflow/backup.
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**Open question: should this move to Phase 1?** The August 2026 market
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evidence says the domestic bottleneck is imported metalwork, not press
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capacity, and that a galvanics line could earn from the incumbent's
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spare presses before CNX's own press hall exists — see the
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[revenue model](finance/revenue-model.md)
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24. Automated press line (the 50/50 fleet target)
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25. Full metrology stack and the sampled audio QC station
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26. Biomass boiler, fed by the by-then-mature coppice plus regional fuel
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27. Mastering and cutting room (can move earlier if title-services demand
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shows up in Phase 4)
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## Standing principle
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Nothing in Phases 2 to 5 starts before its gate clears: no machinery order
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before the BOI certificate, no big-block spending before the market
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validates the price, no coppice fuel planning before the land title check.
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The phased entry (~1.7M to 2.9M USD) is the default path; the full vision
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(~4.7M to 8.9M USD) is reached through it, not instead of it.
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