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User (October 2026): we only build tools and interfaces that interact with ERPNext; invoices, stock and the rest are kept there, except telemetry and other machine data. digital-factory.md: standing decision, decisions 2, 3, 6, 7 and 10 rewritten (ERPNext holds every record of the business and of production, including artist gates, metal-part genealogy as serial numbers with parents, and quality inspections; the machine-data store keeps only cycle and record rows, the hash chain and time series, keyed to ERPNext names; ERPNext first, then custom fields or document types in cnx_erp, then a tool, never a second business database). Systems table, architecture labels, factory application section (modules as a table: records in ERPNext, what we build, machine data outside; our only tables are the machine-data ones), ownership table, integration rules 4 and 8, phasing and estimates (cnx_erp app 2 to 3 person-months; total 3.5 to 6). artist-platform.md: campaigns are an ERPNext document from launch, pledges post as advance payment entries; traceability, README, facility security (archive location on the serial number), production timeline (sets per mother on the mother's serial number), crane-workshop spares store, total-investment. Factory console: KPI row no longer touches the postings card (user screenshot); ERPNext page, order card, sidenote and ledger say every record lives in ERPNext and only machine data stays outside; new postings for artist gates, stamper metrology inspections, stamper set serial numbers (grown, retired with play count). Checked headless: Edge dark and light, 1440/1024/390, no overflow or page errors, rows aligned, pw_fc, pw_wo, pw_feed and pw_erp pass.
103 lines
9.6 KiB
Markdown
103 lines
9.6 KiB
Markdown
# Total Investment: Rough Picture
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Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked
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"estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the
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researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide
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margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.
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**Currency: USD and THB.** FX at 5 August 2026: **1 USD = 33 THB**.
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Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency
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wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at
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**1 EUR = 1.155 USD** and **1 GBP = 1.35 USD**. Original figures compiled
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July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at
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~38 is where it was when they were made.
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## Full vision, all blocks
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| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 350k – 370k | 11.5M – 12.2M | 2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote. The fleet has since changed, see the added-scope table |
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| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 580k – 920k | 19.1M – 30.5M | unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning. Replaced by the Newbilt Classic in the current fleet, see the added-scope table |
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| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha) | 320k – 650k | 10.7M – 21.4M | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, [galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)) is unpriced too; OMS's reference prices (letter, 9 October 2026) put a complete 4-cell wet room at EUR 224k basic to 311k advanced (~USD 259k to 359k; ~270k to 371k with know-how transfer), installation and water treatment extra: at or below this block's low end, kept until quotes exist |
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| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 90k – 240k | 3.0M – 8.0M | utilities CSV option row |
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| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate kept until the re-base; Sibert has since confirmed USD 250k for the three (its time, spares, shipping and travel extra), the difference is in the table below |
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| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 290k – 580k | 9.6M – 19.1M | estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist |
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| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 350k – 810k | 11.5M – 26.7M | estimate, phaseable |
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| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 730k – 1,270k | 24.0M – 41.6M | reviewed [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv), THB-native; sized for one Duplex, the five-press re-size is in the table below |
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| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 650k – 1,100k | 21.4M – 36.2M | estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
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| Land 6–8 rai, if purchased | 360k – 970k | 12.0M – 32.0M | estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
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| Traceability and factory software | 60k – 170k | 1.9M – 5.7M | estimate |
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| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
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| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 120k – 230k | 3.8M – 7.6M | estimate |
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| Subtotal | ~4.1M – 7.7M | ~135M – 254M | |
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| Contingency 15% | ~0.6M – 1.2M | ~20M – 38M | |
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| **Total, full vision** | **~4.7M – 8.9M USD** | **~155M – 294M THB** | |
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### Added scope, not yet in the roll-up
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Decided, or re-priced by a vendor, after the roll-up above was compiled;
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carried here until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the
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building, software and stamper prep lines, and the contingency on top).
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| Block | USD | THB | Basis |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door | 97k – 227k | 3.2M – 7.5M | estimate, [crane, workshop and tours](../crane-workshop-tours.md) |
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| Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out | 30k – 76k | 1.0M – 2.5M | estimate, same |
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| Visitor corridor and accessible entrance | 67k – 148k | 2.2M – 4.9M | estimate, same |
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| Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments) | 40k – 90k | 1.3M – 3.0M | estimate, [artist platform](../artist-platform.md) |
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| PVC material lab, day-one tier (incl. plaque press and sample conditioning) | 55k – 150k | 1.8M – 5.0M | estimate, [quality automation](../quality-automation.md); not costed in the metrology block above. The mature tier (torque rheometer, DSC, FTIR, ~120k – 240k) is deferred, with partner labs in between |
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| Stamper prep re-priced: USD 250k for VSP, VSF and VSC against the 60k – 170k block above | +190k (low case) / +80k (high case) | +6.3M / +2.6M | Sibert's budget confirmation, email of 5 October 2026 ([galvanics and stamper prep](../equipment/galvanics.md)); itemised quotation to follow. Its time, spare parts, shipping and travel are extra and fall into the freight/installation and spares blocks above |
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| Press fleet changed (October 2026) to two Newbilt Duplex systems (two presses each, EX 50 main extruder and EX 35 colour extruder) plus one Newbilt Classic, replacing the two blocks above (930k – 1,290k): Duplex system 1 as the first block (350k – 370k; the quote's second-extruder option becomes the EX 35), system 2 ~230k – 300k (two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set as the yardstick, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35, estimate; no EX 35 price on file), the Classic ~290k – 460k (the AD12 band per press as a placeholder; no Newbilt price on file) | −60k (low case) / −160k (high case) | −2.0M / −5.3M | estimate, [pressing line](../equipment/pressing-line.md); the Newbilt re-quote replaces it. The utilities for five presses are re-sized in the row below |
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| Utilities re-sized for the five-press fleet (October 2026): boiler bank 2 × 500 kg/h, chiller bank 3 × 250 kW with plate heat exchanger and tanks, larger softener and loop treatment ([steam and cooling](../steam-cooling.html)) | +185k (low case) / +294k (high case) | +6.1M / +9.7M | estimate, [utilities CSV](utilities-investment.csv) re-based from 24.0M – 41.6M to 30.1M – 51.3M THB |
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| Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules (October 2026): yard ~379 m² against 178 m² ([scale](../scale.md#detached-utility-yard-parking-and-what-that-moves)) | 73k – 122k | 2.4M – 4.0M | estimate: the building rate above on the ~200 m² the yard grows by; the open chiller compound costs less than a building, so this is the cautious end. The valved branches and feeders for the empty positions are not priced yet |
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| ERPNext for the whole plant (October 2026): configuration with Thai tax, integration with every tool, Nix packaging; `vinyl-erp` server | to quote | to quote | not in the sum: 3.5 to 6 person-months in-house or a partner quote (Ecosoft), plus 2k to 4k USD hardware ([digital factory](../digital-factory.md#erpnext-the-plants-erp)); no licence fee |
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| Archive mobile shelving for the father and mother archive (October 2026) | to quote | to quote | not in the sum: A-Z Solutions publishes no prices; quote it and a Thai supplier ([facility security](../facility-security.md#archive-room-mobile-shelving)) |
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| **Added so far** | **~678k – 1,027k** | **~22.3M – 33.9M** | about 13 to 17% on the full-vision subtotal |
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## Phased entry
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A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly **1.7M to 2.9M USD
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(~57M to 95M THB)**:
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- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
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- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
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- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full
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metrology deferred; the PVC lab's day-one tier is the added-scope row
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above
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- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
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- Galvanics, the second Duplex system and the Classic, full metrology,
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and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round
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expansions
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The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the
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bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass
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steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for
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exactly this reason.
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## What moves the number
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- **BOI**: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment
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blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption
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headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see
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[boi.md](../boi.md)). The blocks are vendor prices without Thai duty or
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import VAT, so the headline assumes promotion: without it, ~0.14M USD of
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duty and ~0.2M USD of import VAT (reclaimable later) come on top at the
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start fleet (estimate)
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- **Buy vs lease** on land and building swings roughly **1.0M to 2.1M
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USD (~34M to 69M THB)** of upfront capital, and also moves the launch
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date by about three quarters — see
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[project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)
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- **Biggest uncertainty bands**: metrology (partly a choice of ambition),
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the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the
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Newbilt Classic (no price on file), and land
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- **Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here.** Revenue is
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mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and
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the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged
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against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see
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[project-timeline.md](../project-timeline.md)). A 10% move in EUR/THB
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between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line
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alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
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- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in
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[equipment-suppliers.md](../suppliers/equipment-suppliers.md) lists who
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to ask
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