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Author SHA1 Message Date
grabowski 1f532d0c85 All-equity funding: shareholders fund the whole plant
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User, 20 Oct 2026: the plan is that the shareholders fund the whole
plant and get shares for that (no bank loan).

- total-investment.md "Two plans": Funding paragraph: Plan B's ~217M
  THB paid in as share capital; the lead investor's 60 % at least ~130M,
  the 40 % at most ~87M (~121M / ~81M before the reserve; Plan A ~109M /
  ~73M); capital registered in full and called in instalments against
  the tranches; BOI's 3:1 met with no debt; nothing pledged.
- boi.md, README Project Status and the share-price bullet follow.
- Business plan A and B: the ask, the decisions, section 12.2 (funding
  bullet replaces the 3:1 equity floor), section 14 and the BOI
  requirements paragraph; "not in this plan" now names bank debt; both
  rebuilt (63 pages, checked).
- share-price.md re-based: 2,170,000 shares of 100 THB, the 40 % ~86.8M
  THB; illustrative calls 25/40/20/15 % against the tranches; premium
  rows on 217M; value per share once running with no debt (adverse 11 to
  42 THB, central 80 to 314, favourable 176 to 688 per 100 THB paid);
  VC method and CAPM recomputed; the calculator's ~22 % IRR is now the
  shareholders' pre-tax return (~18 % after tax, rough); missed-call
  rules (CCC 1120 to 1125); the levered case kept as "if a loan were
  added later".
- Deck: slide 12 (all equity, 60/40 bar ~130M / ~87M, none pledged,
  share capital called in instalments), slide 13 (re-based table, chart,
  premium cards, VC line), slide 17 (co-investor card, calls) and notes
  ("lenders" -> "investors"); both PDFs rebuilt; deck verify clean.
2026-10-20 17:17:18 +07:00
grabowski 1829dd2aec Share price for the 40 %: market-based ranges, deck slide 13
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User, 20 Oct 2026: add a page about possible share prices, do some
calculation on normal market data.

- docs/finance/share-price.md (new): market data with sources and
  dates (Damodaran January 2026 EV/EBITDA, P/E and betas for emerging
  markets and global; Thailand ERP 6.18 % (July 2026); ThaiBMA 10-year
  2.30 % (19 Oct 2026); illiquidity discount 20 to 35 %; venture target
  returns by stage; SET peers SCGP, TPAC, SITHAI, GRAMMY; Thai Civil and
  Commercial Code on par value and premiums).
- Results, all estimates: A founding round at par, pari passu: 542,500
  shares of 100 THB at Plan B's 54.25M equity floor, the 40 % ~21.7M
  THB; B a premium only for documented pre-round costs (102 to 137 THB);
  C value per share once running at ~163M THB debt: adverse ~0, central
  126 to 1,016 THB, favourable 508 to 2,512 THB; D a financial investor
  today 18 to 236 THB (central); E calculator cross-check. Recommendation:
  par for the founding round; pre-emption and information rights for the
  40 %.
- Deck: new slide 13 "Share price: what the 40 % could cost" in both
  themes, with notes; the ask slide points to it; 17 slides, both PDFs
  rebuilt; site slide notes trimmed.
- README bullet, layout line and Project Status link; total-investment
  shareholding paragraph links the page.
2026-10-20 15:13:47 +07:00