Commit Graph
10 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
grabowski 984ced2485 Biomass steam in both plans, PV on the factory roof only
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 49s
User, 17 Oct 2026: "only put solar on the factory, prepare the other
buildings for solar, option a and b should operate on biomass".

- Steam: two 500 kg/h biomass modules (Getabec class, 6M to 10M THB) plus
  a fuel store and handling block (1M to 2M, estimate) in both plans; the
  electric bank becomes the alternative. ~0.67M THB of fuel a year against
  ~4.9M for electric steam; grid demand ~264 kW instead of ~980 kW.
- Solar: ~520 kWp on the factory roof (the biomass-case optimum is ~500 to
  550 kWp, hourly sketch in sustainability.md "PV size with biomass
  steam"); office roof and parking canopies built PV-ready (~120 kWp
  later). ~87 % used on site, ~61 % of the plant's electricity.
- Calculator: biomass default, bFuel row, pvKWp 520, pvSelf 87, iso fills
  the factory roof first and shows the other roofs as PV-ready.
- Numbers: launch plant ~168M / 232M / 296M with contingency; Plan A
  ~182M (~2M above 180M: the Chinese-route lever priced only electric
  boilers; a Chinese biomass quote is the way back), Plan B ~217M (label
  ~215M), ~35M more. Calculator EBITDA A 2.17M, B 2.23M USD.
- CSV, total-investment, revenue-model, sustainability, scale, biomass,
  site-candidates, boi, steam-cooling, construction RFQ (canopies
  PV-ready), README, roadmap; business plan draft 0.3 rebuilt (A and B
  63 pages) with new renders.
2026-10-17 20:24:55 +07:00
grabowski 9ff5feef11 Solar on every roof, BOI solar correction, open source section
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 54s
Solar (user, 17 Oct 2026: "use as much roof space as possible")
- PV on every roof and canopy: ~640 kWp on the Payap scenario plot
  (factory roof ~523, canopies ~54, flat office roof ~65 kWp around the
  AC units); ~300 kWp on the Mueang Chi hall. Calculator: pvKWp 640,
  new pvSelf 85 % (zero export, hourly sketch), PV cost per kWp times the
  array, office-roof PV in the iso view, roofs drawn full.
- 12.8M to 16.6M THB at 20 to 26 THB/W; CSV baseline 34.37M to 56.34M;
  launch plant ~168M / 231M / 294M THB with contingency; Plan B ~216M
  (label ~215M), ~39M above Plan A; Plan A unchanged (it leases the
  array), its solar lever ~17.5M. PV payback ~4.2 to 5.9 years.
- Permits (rooftop solar no factory licence since 28 Dec 2024, ERC
  exemption under 1,000 kVA, PEA zero export) and PPA discounts sourced
  in sustainability.md.

BOI correction
- Announcement 3/2568 (in force 1 July 2025) ended BOI promotion for
  solar installations; only the battery may qualify (12M THB per MW cap).
  Removed the "BOI solar measure" from boi.md, total-investment,
  revenue-model, sustainability, site-candidates and both plan versions;
  Plan B's case for owning the array is the PPA bill it avoids
  (~0.07M USD a year).

Open source (user, 17 Oct 2026)
- digital-factory.md "Open source throughout, and working with other
  plants": everything we run and build is open source on NixOS, our code
  published (licence to decide), vendor firmware the stated exception;
  later the stack and factory-automation services for other pressing
  plants, not in the revenue.
- Business plan section 5.6 plus an executive-summary bullet, reading
  guide and not-modelled mentions; draft 0.3 rebuilt (A 60, B 61 pages),
  renders re-made with the roofs full.
2026-10-17 17:22:57 +07:00
grabowski ab303618d8 Solar and battery re-priced from Thai market data (October 2026)
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 46s
- Rooftop PV, 300 kWp (size still illustrative): 20 to 26 THB/W installed
  with the Deye hybrid inverters, 6.0M to 7.8M THB (was 25 to 35 THB/W,
  7.5M to 10.5M). Sources in the utilities CSV: DEDE Thailand PV Status
  report (Mahidol survey: 22 to 25 THB/W for factory systems of 10 kW to
  1 MW, 2023), CapSolar 2026 (20 to 25 under 1 MWp), Saimai Solar's list
  (300 kW for 5.4M THB), Deye hybrid inverter retail (160,500 THB per
  50 kW).
- Battery 271 kWh, now installed: 2.0M to 3.5M THB (was the bare Gobel
  list price, 1.4M to 2.0M, which matches DEDE's 5,000 to 7,000 THB/kWh
  for LiFePO4); adds enclosure, fire protection, controls and installation,
  below CapSolar's 12,000 to 15,000 THB/kWh for a fully installed factory
  BESS because the hybrid inverters do the conversion (estimate).
- Utilities baseline 27.57M to 47.50M THB; launch plant ~160M / 222M /
  283M THB with contingency; Plan B ~208M (~149M to 266M), ~31M more than
  Plan A; Plan A's total unchanged, its solar lever ~9.7M. PV payback
  ~3.8 to 5.4 years (sustainability.md). Calculator, README, roadmap,
  revenue model and both business plan versions (renders included)
  updated.
2026-10-17 16:41:14 +07:00
grabowski 3f33babdaa Plan B re-defined: the launch plant with everything in (~210M THB); front view on the cover
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 52s
- Plan B now starts like Plan A with one Duplex system and one Classic,
  but takes none of the six levers: owned solar and battery (with the BOI
  solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor corridor, cassette
  and CD-R, the bought crane and Thai-supplied utilities (user, 17 October
  2026). ~193.8M THB before the reserve, ~209M with it (~150M to 268M),
  ~32M (~18 %) more than Plan A; the second Duplex is a growth step from
  revenue in both (~15.4M THB, estimate).
- total-investment.md "Two plans" re-based (heading and anchor now
  "B at ~210M THB", README and roadmap links updated); revenue-model.md
  operating pictures: same volume and EBITDA as Plan A, depreciation on
  Plan B's capital (operating profit 1.26M USD central, payback ~3.7 yr);
  the extra earns nothing in the modelled table, which the docs say.
- Calculator: Plan B preset = the launch plant with contingency kept out
  (EBITDA 2.07M USD, cash payback year ~4.3, IRR ~21 %); budget card marks
  180M and 180M plus 25 %; preset label "Plan B (~210M, all in)".
- Business plan draft 0.3, both versions rebuilt: every Plan B branch of
  the three content files rewritten; renders regenerated with the
  isometric view turned to the front of the site (road, car park, office,
  corridor facade) for the cover and Figures 8 to 10.
2026-10-17 16:33:18 +07:00
grabowski ffc6cedbca Business plan: isometric calculator views instead of FreeCAD, software section with screenshots
- Cover and section 6.2 now use the isometric plant view of the plant and
  business plan calculator, drawn with each version's own preset: the
  cover (roofs, no labels), Figure 8 the site from above, Figure 9 the
  ground floor cut open, Figure 10 the press hall close up. The FreeCAD
  aerial render, the Mueang Chi site plan and the hall layout sketch are
  no longer in the plan; the captions say the calculator draws the Payap
  scenario model while the 6.2 text and zone table are the Mueang Chi
  hall.
- New section 5.5 "The software: plant overview, factory console and
  artist platform" with six screenshots of the demos: the plant overview
  (simulated SCADA), the factory console press floor and its ERPNext
  link, the artist ordering offer, fan funding and the record passport.
  Simulated data is marked as such; the platform name stays undecided.
- Figures renumbered (budget card 11, cash 12) and named in the
  section 15 source table. Renders in docs/renders/calculator/ and
  docs/renders/demos/; README bullet updated.
2026-10-17 16:06:04 +07:00
grabowski bd357ab03f Business plan draft 0.3 in two versions: Plan A ~180M and Plan B ~225M THB
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 52s
- One build makes both documents: plan_variant.py switches the
  plan-specific text (pick / is_a / label); build_plan.py writes
  CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-A and -B (docx), export_pdf.py exports both PDFs
  with the table of contents filled in. Draft 0.2 (single launch-plant
  plan with contingency) is removed; it stays in the history.
- Plan A: the launch plant with every machine and six cost levers, ~177M
  THB with the ramp-up reserve, no contingency. Plan B: the second Duplex
  at launch, five presses, ~224M THB on the same basis. Each version reads
  as a complete plan with one table comparing it with the other; the
  216M investor-question text is gone, Pheenix is priced at OMS's
  reference plus 20 %.
- Calculator renders in both documents, each from its own preset: the
  plant at a glance (Figure 4), the budget check (Figure 5) and ten years
  of cash (Figure 6), in docs/renders/calculator/.
- Calculator budget card: the verdict and third KPI now name the tightest
  budget the midpoint fits (Plan A: 3.3M to spare under 180M; Plan B:
  0.8M under 225M) instead of always 225M.
- Fixes: CD replication cross-references point to section 4.10; the
  blended price in section 3.3 and roadmap item 1 is 3.76 to 5.27 USD at
  60 % specials (3.50 to 4.60 at a standard-heavy mix).
2026-10-17 15:42:35 +07:00
grabowski 3f1e4452b8 Press hall: five Duplex bays and four Classic positions (balanced at 60 % specials)
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 44s
User (October 2026): "change the hall layout" after the finding that the
60/40 floor split leaves the Classics about half loaded at 60 %+
specials (specials run only on the Duplex systems).

- Press hall now keeps five Duplex bays (four along the visitor
  corridor, the fifth at the head of the second row) and four Classic
  positions: 550 + 200 = ~750 m2 of ~870 m2, ~73/27 by floor, 10 to 4 by
  presses; launch plant fills one of each, growth adds Duplex first.
- Full hall: ~2.9 to 4.4M records a year at 60 % specials, Classics ~80
  to 100 % loaded (60/40 gave ~2.3 to 3.6M); ~3.2 to 4.4M at ~20 %;
  fourteen presses as before: ~2.1 to 2.5 t/h steam, up to ~1.8 MW
  cooling, a utility phase of its own.
- pressing-line.md, scale.md, site-candidates.md, crane-workshop-tours.md,
  roadmap.md, README (FreeCAD model still the earlier layout, not
  redrawn); calculator preset "Full hall (5 D + 4 C)" and ladder; plant
  view reserves 5 Duplex bays and 4 Classic positions; business plan
  draft 0.2 rebuilt.

Checks: renderer 720 checks and functional checks pass, calculator
regression 0 fails, level checks clean; PDF 47 pages, TOC filled.
2026-10-16 20:57:51 +07:00
grabowski d8b2c1e2db Press hall laid out 60/40 for Duplex systems (special pressings first)
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 46s
User (October 2026): "the factory should have more space for duplex
setups than classic, we will mainly focus on special prints and not mono
colours plan it to be 60/40 duplex classic".

- Press hall (~870 m2) planned 60/40 by floor: four Duplex bays along the
  visitor corridor and six Classic positions in the second row (440 + 300
  = ~740 m2 at 110 / 50 m2), the rest open for mould carts and staging;
  the launch plant fills one of each, growth adds Duplex systems first.
  Replaces "room for ten more Classics".
- Full hall: 8 semi-automatic presses + 6 Classics, 57/43 by press count,
  ~1,250 to 1,410 records/h gross, ~3.6 to 4.7M a year on the scale.md
  basis (was 4.7 to 5.8M for 2 Duplex + 11 Classics); ~2.1 to 2.5 t/h
  steam and up to ~1.8 MW cooling, still a utility phase of its own.
  By hourly output the six automatic Classics still press more than the
  eight semi-automatic presses (estimate).
- pressing-line.md, scale.md (capacity table, utilities), site-candidates
  .md, crane-workshop-tours.md, roadmap.md, README (the FreeCAD Payap
  model still draws the earlier layout; noted, not redrawn).
- Calculator: preset "Full hall 60/40 (4 D + 6 C)", fleet ladder Duplex
  first (1+1, 2+1, 3+2, 4+3, 4+6) plus the same floor Classic-led (2+11)
  and Duplex-only (7+0) for comparison; plant view reserves 4 Duplex
  bays and 6 Classic positions.
- Business plan draft 0.2 rebuilt (capacity table row, plot fit, layout).

Checks: renderer 720 checks pass (node budget 2,700 for the Duplex-heavy
stress preset, 60 fps), calculator regression 0 fails, level selector and
page checks clean at 390 / 1024 / 1440 px dark and light; PDF 47 pages
with a filled table of contents.
2026-10-16 20:09:56 +07:00
grabowski d42e99389b Business plan draft 0.2: re-based on the launch plant
The investor business plan (docx + pdf) rebuilt for the launch plant
decided in October 2026: one Duplex system and one Classic, Pheenix
galvanics with zero discharge, the Sibert line, a Sillitoe cutting room,
modular steam and cooling (rooms for four), cassette and CD-R; no bridge
stampers, no outsourced cutting; second Duplex as a growth option.

- Part A: executive summary (what changed since 0.1, the numbers, the
  180M / 216M answer, first release marked open), reading guide, two
  price points (ResurRec and Record Industry), anatomy rewritten for
  Sillitoe, Pheenix, Sibert, Duplex + Classic, lead times without bridge
  stampers, new 4.8 artist platform, cassette 4.9, CD 4.10.
- Part B: traceability with ERPNext as system of record, metrology launch
  tier as the investor's choice, QC, efficiency (PEA tariff, utility
  modules, fuel open, Chinese boilers and DIW rules), site (Mueang Chi,
  Payap zoning result), building blocks, safety, BOI and licences with
  galvanics in the first factory licence.
- Part C: launch-plant investment table, the investor's question and
  levers, tranches, currency, operating picture of the launch plant,
  timeline with the metal path on the critical path, commissioning
  sequence and why the whole chain at launch, team, 22 risks, 17 phase 0
  actions, the ask.
- plan_lib: grid column widths so LibreOffice keeps table widths.
- export_pdf.py: LibreOffice UNO export that fills the table of
  contents (47 pages).
- README: total investment, revenue model and business plan bullets.
2026-10-16 16:01:25 +07:00
grabowski 3934dc1dc4 Add investor business plan (draft 0.1) with its Python builder
Leased land instead of purchase, in-house cassette duplication, CD-R
duplication with CD replication shown as a separate investor decision,
Ploy Printing as packaging partner and intended co-investor, and a
dedicated section on traceability, metrology, QC and efficiency.
2026-09-10 10:20:05 +02:00