Re-base scale, pressing line, roadmap, revenue model and calculator on the launch plant

Launch plant (user, October 2026): one Duplex system and one Classic,
with cutting and galvanics in-house, everything in one capital round.

- scale.md: capacity table now launch plant 0.71-0.97M records/yr, the
  second Duplex as a growth option; launch utilities (450-540 kg/h on
  B-1/B-2, ~390 kW on 2 x 250 kW); calculator figure ~0.94M.
- pressing-line.md: launch plant section on top; five-press fleet kept as
  the layout fleet the hall and backbone are built for.
- roadmap.md: long-lead orders for the launch plant, no bridge stampers
  or outsourced cutting, commissioning order, what stays revenue-gated.
- revenue-model.md: operating picture of the launch plant: central
  revenue ~3.75M USD, EBITDA ~1.6M, operating profit ~1.1M, payback ~4
  yr on 216M THB, break-even ~0.3M records; adverse corner cannot cover
  depreciation. Five-press table kept and labelled.
- fleet-calculator.html: start fleet 1 Duplex + 1 Classic, target 850k,
  capex base 6.55M (cases 8.9 / 6.55 / 4.9M), Duplex beyond one, chiller
  500 kW, imported machinery 2.3M, ladder from the launch plant.
- total-investment.md: superseded note updated.

docs/finance/revenue-model.md

@@ -575,7 +575,74 @@ base salaries in that way.
   is likely, but price realisation and cost control each move the margin
   by more than a third on their own
 
-## Operating picture at full capacity
+## Operating picture of the launch plant (October 2026)
+
+The plant now launches with one Newbilt Duplex system and one Classic,
+with cutting and galvanics in-house from the start
+([total investment](total-investment.md#launch-plant-october-2026)). Three
+presses make ~0.71 to 0.97 million records a year on two shifts
+([scale](../scale.md#production-capacity)), against 1.0 to 1.5 million for
+the five-press fleet the full-capacity table below was built for. Same
+method and the same three cases, with these changes (all estimates):
+
+- **Volume** 0.71M / 0.84M / 0.97M records a year.
+- **Direct payroll** stays at 3.7M to 5.4M THB a year (two shifts still
+  need the press, finishing, galvanics, QC and maintenance crews), so
+  labour per record rises to 0.12 / 0.16 / 0.23 USD and the direct cost to
+  1.34 / 1.98 / 2.65 USD.
+- **Title services**: 200 / 300 / 400 titles at 580 / 1,155 / 1,730 USD,
+  60 to 70 % contribution after lacquers, styli and nickel. The middle
+  price is the per-title fee of the artist demos (37,836 THB).
+- **Depreciation** on the launch plant: 8.9M USD over 10 years (adverse),
+  the 216M THB target (~6.55M USD) over 12.5 years (central), 4.9M USD
+  over 15 years (favourable).
+- **Cash overheads** unchanged at 0.20M to 0.45M USD, paired high to
+  adverse.
+
+| USD/yr | Adverse | Central | Favourable |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Records | 0.71M | 0.84M | 0.97M |
+| Blended price | 3.50 | 4.05 | 4.60 |
+| Direct cost | 2.65 | 1.98 | 1.34 |
+| Contribution per record | 0.85 | 2.07 | 3.26 |
+| Pressing contribution | 0.60M | 1.74M | 3.17M |
+| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M |
+| **Total contribution** | **0.67M** | **1.96M** | **3.65M** |
+| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
+| **EBITDA** | **0.22M** | **1.63M** | **3.45M** |
+| Depreciation | 0.89M | 0.52M | 0.33M |
+| **Operating profit** | **-0.67M** | **1.11M** | **3.12M** |
+| Revenue | 2.60M (~86M THB) | 3.75M (~124M THB) | 5.15M (~170M THB) |
+| Payback on the launch capital (EBITDA, mature year) | never | ~4 yr (3.0 to 5.5 on 4.9M to 8.9M) | ~1.4 yr |
+
+What it says:
+
+- **The central case works on 216M THB**: EBITDA ~1.6M USD (~54M THB) a
+  year and operating profit ~1.1M USD (~37M THB) once the plant runs at
+  volume, and it breaks even on operating profit at about **0.3 million
+  records a year, a little over a third of capacity**.
+- **The adverse corner cannot pay for itself at any volume the three
+  presses make**: it would need ~1.5 million records to cover
+  depreciation. It stacks the low price, the high cost, the high capital
+  and the high overheads at once; at the central cost and volume the
+  price that covers depreciation is only ~2.7 to 3.0 USD (~90 to 98 THB)
+  a record, below the low price assumed.
+- **The caveats of the full-capacity table hold here too**: the central
+  EBITDA margin (~43 %) is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn,
+  because the direct cost table leaves out indirect labour, freight,
+  scrap above the allowance and commissions. Price realisation and
+  utilisation decide the result, and the ramp year is not in this table
+  (the ramp-up reserve in the investment covers it).
+- Not modelled: cassette and CD-R lines, stamper supply to other
+  pressing plants, dropshipping fees. The solar PPA lever in the
+  investment would add its power price to the energy line instead of
+  capital.
+
+## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
+
+The fleet this table describes (two Duplex systems and a Classic) is now
+a growth option; the launch plant is in the section above.
+
 
 Built from the components above rather than asserted. The
 [press fleet calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) runs the same P&L for
@@ -588,7 +655,7 @@ and nickel; a lacquer blank costs about **70 EUR** (team figure, October
 2026), one per side, so ~160 USD a two-sided title before recuts. Cash overheads (admin, sales, insurance, facility running,
 IT, professional fees, marketing) are estimated at **200–450k USD/yr**
 and deliberately paired high-to-adverse. Depreciation is the 4.7–8.9M
-capex over 10–15 years.
+capex of the earlier full vision over 10–15 years.
 
 | USD/yr | Adverse | Central | Favourable |
 |---|---|---|---|

docs/finance/total-investment.md

@@ -129,8 +129,10 @@ target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
 ## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)
 
 The five-press full vision below is superseded by the launch plant above.
-It stays until the documents that quote its 4.7M to 8.9M USD total (README,
-roadmap, revenue model, business plan) are re-based on the launch plant.
+Scale, pressing line, roadmap, revenue model (which now has a launch-plant
+operating picture) and the fleet calculator are re-based on the launch
+plant; the business plan is next. It stays for the record of how the
+blocks were built.
 
 | Block | USD | THB | Basis |
 |---|---|---|---|