ResurRec Japan: demand in Japan and whether it serves all of Asia

Revenue model, ResurRec Japan section: RIAJ 2025 vinyl production
(3.38M records, 8.4bn yen, fifth year of growth), short domestic supply
(6 to 12 month lead times at Toyo Kasei and Sony per P-Vine, orders
placed abroad via brokers), the photographed presses at about a fifth of
Japan's volume on one shift. No published Asia-wide intent; the rest of
Asia has local plants, so Japan-from-Japan and SEA-from-Bangkok is our
reading. Consequence for CNX's ~0.74M regional demand (roadmap item 1).

docs/finance/revenue-model.md

@@ -542,9 +542,64 @@ load is about the same, so per record the AD12s use about a third less
 steam (~1.2 kg against ~1.8 to 1.9 kg at rated output; vendor figures and
 our sizing).
 
+**Demand in Japan.** Japanese labels produced **3.38 million records in
+2025**, worth ¥8.4 billion (about ¥2,500 a record at producer prices),
+the fifth year of growth in a row: 2.69M in 2023, 3.15M in 2024
+([RIAJ series](https://www.riaj.or.jp/data/annual/trends/anlg/),
+[RIAJ release of 22 January 2026](https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000645.000010908.html);
+checked October 2026). These are shipments by RIAJ member labels and the
+non-members they distribute, not plant output: imported records come on
+top, and records Japanese labels press abroad are probably inside (our
+reading). Supply is short:
+
+- P-Vine said orders at Toyo Kasei and Sony, the two large plants, took
+  six months to a year to deliver, which is why it built its own plant
+  (VGAP) in 2024
+  ([Phile-web, 15 October 2024](https://www.phileweb.com/news/audio/202410/15/25744.html)).
+- Toyo Kasei makes about 800 records a day per press
+  ([Audio-Technica, 2024](https://www.audio-technica.co.jp/always-listening/articles/record-craft-02/)).
+- Brokers such as Wolfpack place Japanese orders with GZ Media and other
+  plants abroad
+  ([Wolfpack](https://www.wolfpack-united.jp/service/)).
+
+The three presses in the photo, at 0.60 to 0.76M a year on one shift,
+would be **about a fifth of Japan's 2025 volume** (a little over a third
+to under half on two shifts). Japan alone can fill the plant if it wins
+orders from the long queues and from pressing abroad; it does not need
+the rest of Asia to do so.
+
+**All of Asia?** Nothing ResurRec has published says so. Our reading of
+the evidence:
+
+- Japan is the prize: large, growing, short of domestic capacity, and
+  where ResurRec's Thai pressings were already sold.
+- The rest of Asia has local plants: South Korea (Machang Music &
+  Pictures since 2017, FRYK), Taiwan (Mobineko, which sells to Korean
+  labels and Southeast Asia, and Deep Sound), Hong Kong (PrimeDisc),
+  mainland China (Yongtong, China Etech, Pacific Audio & Video, Purple
+  Media, Starlight) and Indonesia (PHR Pressing, ~30,000 records a month
+  at its 2023 launch), per
+  [GigLife Pro](https://giglifepro.com/articles/vinyl-pressing-plants-in-apac),
+  [Total Sonic](https://totalsonic.net/vinylplants.html) and
+  [Mobineko](https://mobineko.com/uk) (checked October 2026).
+- Japanese labour and power cost more than Thai, so Bangkok stays the
+  cheaper base for Southeast Asia, where it already ships to Hong Kong,
+  Singapore and Vietnam (Bandwagon, 2023).
+
+A split of Japan served from Japan and Southeast Asia from Bangkok fits
+this better than one Asian hub. It is an inference, to ask about in the
+collaboration talks.
+
+For CNX it means the ~0.74M records a year the plan needs from Asian
+labels ([roadmap](../roadmap.md) item 1) has to come more from Southeast
+Asia, the rest of Asia and Western export, where the plants above
+compete, and less from Japan's queue. That makes the buyer conversations
+in item 1 more pressing, not less.
+
 Open questions: where the Japan plant is, since when, how many presses
-and which, whether it plates, and whether Bangkok keeps its orders or
-volume work moves to Japan.
+and which, whether it plates, whether Bangkok keeps its orders or
+volume work moves to Japan, and which markets each plant is meant to
+serve.
 
 ## Pricing assumptions (what a pressing plant charges)