From 793ea02c2255f8649718e2bd1f894b2e93d3dd00 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: grabowski Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 16:58:23 +0700 Subject: [PATCH] ResurRec Japan: demand in Japan and whether it serves all of Asia Revenue model, ResurRec Japan section: RIAJ 2025 vinyl production (3.38M records, 8.4bn yen, fifth year of growth), short domestic supply (6 to 12 month lead times at Toyo Kasei and Sony per P-Vine, orders placed abroad via brokers), the photographed presses at about a fifth of Japan's volume on one shift. No published Asia-wide intent; the rest of Asia has local plants, so Japan-from-Japan and SEA-from-Bangkok is our reading. Consequence for CNX's ~0.74M regional demand (roadmap item 1). --- docs/finance/revenue-model.md | 59 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-- 1 file changed, 57 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/finance/revenue-model.md b/docs/finance/revenue-model.md index 4dd3241..b33f1d6 100644 --- a/docs/finance/revenue-model.md +++ b/docs/finance/revenue-model.md @@ -542,9 +542,64 @@ load is about the same, so per record the AD12s use about a third less steam (~1.2 kg against ~1.8 to 1.9 kg at rated output; vendor figures and our sizing). +**Demand in Japan.** Japanese labels produced **3.38 million records in +2025**, worth ¥8.4 billion (about ¥2,500 a record at producer prices), +the fifth year of growth in a row: 2.69M in 2023, 3.15M in 2024 +([RIAJ series](https://www.riaj.or.jp/data/annual/trends/anlg/), +[RIAJ release of 22 January 2026](https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000645.000010908.html); +checked October 2026). These are shipments by RIAJ member labels and the +non-members they distribute, not plant output: imported records come on +top, and records Japanese labels press abroad are probably inside (our +reading). Supply is short: + +- P-Vine said orders at Toyo Kasei and Sony, the two large plants, took + six months to a year to deliver, which is why it built its own plant + (VGAP) in 2024 + ([Phile-web, 15 October 2024](https://www.phileweb.com/news/audio/202410/15/25744.html)). +- Toyo Kasei makes about 800 records a day per press + ([Audio-Technica, 2024](https://www.audio-technica.co.jp/always-listening/articles/record-craft-02/)). +- Brokers such as Wolfpack place Japanese orders with GZ Media and other + plants abroad + ([Wolfpack](https://www.wolfpack-united.jp/service/)). + +The three presses in the photo, at 0.60 to 0.76M a year on one shift, +would be **about a fifth of Japan's 2025 volume** (a little over a third +to under half on two shifts). Japan alone can fill the plant if it wins +orders from the long queues and from pressing abroad; it does not need +the rest of Asia to do so. + +**All of Asia?** Nothing ResurRec has published says so. Our reading of +the evidence: + +- Japan is the prize: large, growing, short of domestic capacity, and + where ResurRec's Thai pressings were already sold. +- The rest of Asia has local plants: South Korea (Machang Music & + Pictures since 2017, FRYK), Taiwan (Mobineko, which sells to Korean + labels and Southeast Asia, and Deep Sound), Hong Kong (PrimeDisc), + mainland China (Yongtong, China Etech, Pacific Audio & Video, Purple + Media, Starlight) and Indonesia (PHR Pressing, ~30,000 records a month + at its 2023 launch), per + [GigLife Pro](https://giglifepro.com/articles/vinyl-pressing-plants-in-apac), + [Total Sonic](https://totalsonic.net/vinylplants.html) and + [Mobineko](https://mobineko.com/uk) (checked October 2026). +- Japanese labour and power cost more than Thai, so Bangkok stays the + cheaper base for Southeast Asia, where it already ships to Hong Kong, + Singapore and Vietnam (Bandwagon, 2023). + +A split of Japan served from Japan and Southeast Asia from Bangkok fits +this better than one Asian hub. It is an inference, to ask about in the +collaboration talks. + +For CNX it means the ~0.74M records a year the plan needs from Asian +labels ([roadmap](../roadmap.md) item 1) has to come more from Southeast +Asia, the rest of Asia and Western export, where the plants above +compete, and less from Japan's queue. That makes the buyer conversations +in item 1 more pressing, not less. + Open questions: where the Japan plant is, since when, how many presses -and which, whether it plates, and whether Bangkok keeps its orders or -volume work moves to Japan. +and which, whether it plates, whether Bangkok keeps its orders or +volume work moves to Japan, and which markets each plant is meant to +serve. ## Pricing assumptions (what a pressing plant charges)