Plan B re-defined: the launch plant with everything in (~210M THB); front view on the cover
Deploy test site / deploy (push) Successful in 52s

- Plan B now starts like Plan A with one Duplex system and one Classic,
  but takes none of the six levers: owned solar and battery (with the BOI
  solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor corridor, cassette
  and CD-R, the bought crane and Thai-supplied utilities (user, 17 October
  2026). ~193.8M THB before the reserve, ~209M with it (~150M to 268M),
  ~32M (~18 %) more than Plan A; the second Duplex is a growth step from
  revenue in both (~15.4M THB, estimate).
- total-investment.md "Two plans" re-based (heading and anchor now
  "B at ~210M THB", README and roadmap links updated); revenue-model.md
  operating pictures: same volume and EBITDA as Plan A, depreciation on
  Plan B's capital (operating profit 1.26M USD central, payback ~3.7 yr);
  the extra earns nothing in the modelled table, which the docs say.
- Calculator: Plan B preset = the launch plant with contingency kept out
  (EBITDA 2.07M USD, cash payback year ~4.3, IRR ~21 %); budget card marks
  180M and 180M plus 25 %; preset label "Plan B (~210M, all in)".
- Business plan draft 0.3, both versions rebuilt: every Plan B branch of
  the three content files rewritten; renders regenerated with the
  isometric view turned to the front of the site (road, car park, office,
  corridor facade) for the cover and Figures 8 to 10.
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@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).
### The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)
*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)
*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)
below. Written against the earlier Pheenix estimate (USD 320k to 650k,
total ~227M THB at the midpoint); its galvanics lever is now the base
price.*
@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology
stack. Until they are in, quote **~216M THB** to the investor as the
target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~225M THB (October 2026)
## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~210M THB (October 2026)
Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
@@ -139,8 +139,12 @@ versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
- **Plan A, ~180M THB**: the launch plant with every machine decided
above (one Duplex system, one Classic, galvanics, Sibert, the cutting
room), brought down with six cost levers.
- **Plan B, ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %)**: the second Duplex system at
launch, so five presses, with everything in.
- **Plan B, ~210M THB**: the same launch plant, one Duplex system and
one Classic, with everything in: none of Plan A's six levers taken.
First drawn as five presses at ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %); re-defined
by the user on 17 October 2026 ("plan b should also only start with 1
duplex and 1 classic, but with all levers"). In both plans the second
Duplex system is a growth step from revenue.
Both are priced **without contingency** (user decision) and **with the
ramp-up reserve**, because the reserve is cash the investor puts in
@@ -159,24 +163,21 @@ reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan A** | | **~177M THB (~5.35M USD)**, ~127M to 226M from the low to the high end of every block |
| Plan B: five presses, everything in | USD | THB, midpoint |
| Plan B: the launch plant, everything in | USD | THB |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~193.8M |
| Second Duplex system: two HRP 12, EX 50 and EX 35 (calculator basis: two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35; no EX 35 price on file) | 230k – 300k | +8.7M |
| Third chiller module, CH-3 (250 kW; the two boiler modules carry 750 to 900 kg/h) | 48k – 78k | +2.1M |
| Freight and installation for the extra machinery | 24k – 48k | +1.2M |
| Working capital for ~1.25M records a year instead of 0.85M | 64k – 139k | +3.4M |
| Subtotal | **4.61M – 8.07M** | **~209.2M (~6.34M USD)** |
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar and battery ~10.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~32M THB at the midpoint) | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M, **~193.8M (~5.87M USD)** at the midpoint |
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan B** | | **~224M THB (~6.79M USD)**, ~162M to 286M from the low to the high end of every block |
| **Plan B** | | **~209M THB (~6.33M USD): ~210M**, ~150M to 268M from the low to the high end of every block |
Plan B keeps what Plan A gives up: owned solar and battery (and with
them the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor
corridor, the bought crane, cassette and CD-R, Thai-supplied utilities.
Its five presses make ~1.0 to 1.5 million records a year at the planned
60 % specials (the [scale](../scale.md#production-capacity) basis; not
Duplex-limited), against ~0.58 to 0.90 million for Plan A's three; the
operating pictures of both are in the
Plan B costs ~32M THB (~18 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
stays within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (its high end, ~268M, does
not). It keeps what Plan A leases or defers:
owned solar and battery (and with them the BOI solar measure), the full
metrology stack from the first release, the visitor corridor and tours
from the start, cassette and CD-R, the bought crane, Thai-supplied
utilities with local service. Both plans have the same three presses and
make the same ~0.58 to 0.90 million records a year at the planned 60 %
specials (Duplex-limited); the operating pictures are in the
[revenue model](revenue-model.md#operating-pictures-of-plan-a-and-plan-b-october-2026).
The [plant and business plan calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) has
both as presets.
@@ -185,17 +186,27 @@ both as presets.
- **Contingency.** The blocks are budgetary (plus or minus 30 to 50 % on
the estimates, top of this page), so the plans carry no buffer for
quotes landing high. At this page's 15 % that would be ~24M THB on
Plan A and ~31M on Plan B at the midpoint.
Plan A and ~29M on Plan B at the midpoint.
- The central hydraulic plant (not costed yet), the archive's mobile
shelving (to quote), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves,
and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).
**What decides between them:** demand. Plan B needs ~1.25 million records
sold a year in its central case, about 70 % more than Plan A's 0.74
million, three fifths of them special editions; market validation
(roadmap item 1) is the evidence for that. Plan A keeps the second Duplex
as a growth step from revenue, with its floor, utility positions and
ring-main tees reserved.
**What decides between them:** not demand, since both make the same
records, but whether the investor funds ~32M THB more at launch for what
Plan A leases or buys from revenue. On the modelled numbers Plan B's
extra earns nothing (same EBITDA, more depreciation, a longer payback);
its case rests on what the operating table leaves out: the BOI solar
measure (only an owned array qualifies), full stamper metrology for the
traceability pitch from the first release, tours and the Payap
programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, and utilities with
local service. Most of Plan B's items can be added to Plan A later from
revenue; the solar measure and the corridor are cheaper to have from
the start. Both plans keep the second Duplex as a growth step, with its
floor, utility positions and ring-main tees reserved: ~15.4M THB at the
midpoint for the system (~8.7M), a third chiller module CH-3 (~2.1M),
their freight and installation (~1.2M) and the working capital for the
extra records (~3.4M), estimates on the calculator's basis, as first
priced for the five-press Plan B.
## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)