Plan B re-defined: the launch plant with everything in (~210M THB); front view on the cover
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- Plan B now starts like Plan A with one Duplex system and one Classic, but takes none of the six levers: owned solar and battery (with the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor corridor, cassette and CD-R, the bought crane and Thai-supplied utilities (user, 17 October 2026). ~193.8M THB before the reserve, ~209M with it (~150M to 268M), ~32M (~18 %) more than Plan A; the second Duplex is a growth step from revenue in both (~15.4M THB, estimate). - total-investment.md "Two plans" re-based (heading and anchor now "B at ~210M THB", README and roadmap links updated); revenue-model.md operating pictures: same volume and EBITDA as Plan A, depreciation on Plan B's capital (operating profit 1.26M USD central, payback ~3.7 yr); the extra earns nothing in the modelled table, which the docs say. - Calculator: Plan B preset = the launch plant with contingency kept out (EBITDA 2.07M USD, cash payback year ~4.3, IRR ~21 %); budget card marks 180M and 180M plus 25 %; preset label "Plan B (~210M, all in)". - Business plan draft 0.3, both versions rebuilt: every Plan B branch of the three content files rewritten; renders regenerated with the isometric view turned to the front of the site (road, car park, office, corridor facade) for the cover and Figures 8 to 10.
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@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).
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### The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)
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*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)
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*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)
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below. Written against the earlier Pheenix estimate (USD 320k to 650k,
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total ~227M THB at the midpoint); its galvanics lever is now the base
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price.*
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@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology
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stack. Until they are in, quote **~216M THB** to the investor as the
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target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
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## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~225M THB (October 2026)
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## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~210M THB (October 2026)
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Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
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versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
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@@ -139,8 +139,12 @@ versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
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- **Plan A, ~180M THB**: the launch plant with every machine decided
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above (one Duplex system, one Classic, galvanics, Sibert, the cutting
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room), brought down with six cost levers.
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- **Plan B, ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %)**: the second Duplex system at
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launch, so five presses, with everything in.
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- **Plan B, ~210M THB**: the same launch plant, one Duplex system and
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one Classic, with everything in: none of Plan A's six levers taken.
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First drawn as five presses at ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %); re-defined
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by the user on 17 October 2026 ("plan b should also only start with 1
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duplex and 1 classic, but with all levers"). In both plans the second
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Duplex system is a growth step from revenue.
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Both are priced **without contingency** (user decision) and **with the
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ramp-up reserve**, because the reserve is cash the investor puts in
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@@ -159,24 +163,21 @@ reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
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| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
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| **Plan A** | | **~177M THB (~5.35M USD)**, ~127M to 226M from the low to the high end of every block |
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| Plan B: five presses, everything in | USD | THB, midpoint |
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| Plan B: the launch plant, everything in | USD | THB |
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|---|---|---|
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| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~193.8M |
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| Second Duplex system: two HRP 12, EX 50 and EX 35 (calculator basis: two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35; no EX 35 price on file) | 230k – 300k | +8.7M |
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| Third chiller module, CH-3 (250 kW; the two boiler modules carry 750 to 900 kg/h) | 48k – 78k | +2.1M |
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| Freight and installation for the extra machinery | 24k – 48k | +1.2M |
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| Working capital for ~1.25M records a year instead of 0.85M | 64k – 139k | +3.4M |
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| Subtotal | **4.61M – 8.07M** | **~209.2M (~6.34M USD)** |
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| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar and battery ~10.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~32M THB at the midpoint) | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M, **~193.8M (~5.87M USD)** at the midpoint |
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| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
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| **Plan B** | | **~224M THB (~6.79M USD)**, ~162M to 286M from the low to the high end of every block |
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| **Plan B** | | **~209M THB (~6.33M USD): ~210M**, ~150M to 268M from the low to the high end of every block |
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Plan B keeps what Plan A gives up: owned solar and battery (and with
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them the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor
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corridor, the bought crane, cassette and CD-R, Thai-supplied utilities.
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Its five presses make ~1.0 to 1.5 million records a year at the planned
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60 % specials (the [scale](../scale.md#production-capacity) basis; not
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Duplex-limited), against ~0.58 to 0.90 million for Plan A's three; the
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operating pictures of both are in the
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Plan B costs ~32M THB (~18 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
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stays within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (its high end, ~268M, does
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not). It keeps what Plan A leases or defers:
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owned solar and battery (and with them the BOI solar measure), the full
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metrology stack from the first release, the visitor corridor and tours
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from the start, cassette and CD-R, the bought crane, Thai-supplied
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utilities with local service. Both plans have the same three presses and
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make the same ~0.58 to 0.90 million records a year at the planned 60 %
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specials (Duplex-limited); the operating pictures are in the
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[revenue model](revenue-model.md#operating-pictures-of-plan-a-and-plan-b-october-2026).
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The [plant and business plan calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) has
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both as presets.
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@@ -185,17 +186,27 @@ both as presets.
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- **Contingency.** The blocks are budgetary (plus or minus 30 to 50 % on
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the estimates, top of this page), so the plans carry no buffer for
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quotes landing high. At this page's 15 % that would be ~24M THB on
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Plan A and ~31M on Plan B at the midpoint.
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Plan A and ~29M on Plan B at the midpoint.
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- The central hydraulic plant (not costed yet), the archive's mobile
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shelving (to quote), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves,
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and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).
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**What decides between them:** demand. Plan B needs ~1.25 million records
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sold a year in its central case, about 70 % more than Plan A's 0.74
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million, three fifths of them special editions; market validation
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(roadmap item 1) is the evidence for that. Plan A keeps the second Duplex
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as a growth step from revenue, with its floor, utility positions and
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ring-main tees reserved.
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**What decides between them:** not demand, since both make the same
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records, but whether the investor funds ~32M THB more at launch for what
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Plan A leases or buys from revenue. On the modelled numbers Plan B's
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extra earns nothing (same EBITDA, more depreciation, a longer payback);
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its case rests on what the operating table leaves out: the BOI solar
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measure (only an owned array qualifies), full stamper metrology for the
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traceability pitch from the first release, tours and the Payap
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programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, and utilities with
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local service. Most of Plan B's items can be added to Plan A later from
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revenue; the solar measure and the corridor are cheaper to have from
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the start. Both plans keep the second Duplex as a growth step, with its
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floor, utility positions and ring-main tees reserved: ~15.4M THB at the
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midpoint for the system (~8.7M), a third chiller module CH-3 (~2.1M),
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their freight and installation (~1.2M) and the working capital for the
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extra records (~3.4M), estimates on the calculator's basis, as first
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priced for the five-press Plan B.
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## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)
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