cnx_vinyl/docs/finance/total-investment.md

Total Investment: Rough Picture

Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them.

Currency: USD and THB. FX at 5 August 2026: 1 USD = 33 THB. Vendor quotes issued in another currency are kept in that currency wherever they appear next to their source document, and converted here at 1 EUR = 1.155 USD and 1 GBP = 1.35 USD. Original figures compiled July 2026; the underlying THB estimates are unchanged, because EUR/THB at ~38 is where it was when they were made.

Launch plant (October 2026)

Decided (user, October 2026): the plant launches with everything in one capital round, commissioned in sequence, with no bridge stampers and no outsourced cutting:

• one Newbilt Duplex system: two HRP 12 semi-automatic presses, an EX 50 main and an EX 35 colour extruder (pressing line);
• one Newbilt Classic fully automatic press;
• one Pheenix Alpha galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, one PDPU, PMPB) with zero-discharge water treatment (galvanics and stamper prep);
• the Sibert stamper-prep line (VSF, VSP, VSC);
• a Sillitoe SDMS cutting room (vendor landscape);
• the modular steam and cooling plant: two 500 kg/h boiler modules and two 250 kW chiller modules, in a boiler hall and a chiller compound built for four each (scale).

Cassette and CD-R duplication stay in. The second Duplex system and the further Classics are growth options with room reserved, not in this investment. Three presses make roughly 0.7 to 0.95 million records a year on two shifts (estimate: the scale basis gives ~0.71 to 0.97 million, the planning rates of the fleet calculator ~0.94 million).

Block	USD	THB	Basis
Phase 0: BOI consultant, legal and lease work, soil test, re-quotes	40k – 80k	1.3M – 2.6M	estimate
Newbilt Duplex system (two HRP 12, EX 50 + EX 35, trimmer, label oven, shrink wrapper, grinder, label punch)	350k – 370k	11.6M – 12.2M	2024 quote EUR 200,500 for the Single 2.1 plus the quoted second press and extruder ~USD 115k; expired, re-quote
Newbilt Classic	290k – 460k	9.6M – 15.2M	placeholder (the old AD12 band per press); no Newbilt price on file
Pheenix galvanics line (PASU, PPPU, PDPU, PMPB)	324k – 445k	10.7M – 14.7M	OMS's reference plus 20 % (user, October 2026): OMS's 4-cell wet room with the know-how transfer, EUR 234k to 321k (~USD 270k to 371k, galvanics), as the price basis for the Pheenix line; no Pheenix price on file (was 320k to 650k, estimate)
Galvanics water: ZLD evaporator and DI water	97k – 258k	3.2M – 8.5M	utilities CSV rows, now launch scope
Water-treatment building next to galvanics (~12 × 10 m, proposed)	52k – 87k	1.7M – 2.9M	estimate at the building rate below
Sibert VSF, VSP, VSC	250k	8.3M	Sibert's budget confirmation, 5 October 2026; its time, spares, shipping and travel in the freight and working-capital lines
Cutting room: Sillitoe SDMS, spare cutterhead and support, mastering console and chain, monitoring, room build-out	200k – 350k	6.6M – 11.6M	SDMS list price USD 125k (ex tax and shipping); the rest estimate
Metrology and QC stack (XRF, laser confocal, wide-area profiler, inline vision on three presses, audio station)	350k – 810k	11.6M – 26.7M	estimate, phaseable (quality automation)
PVC lab, day-one tier	55k – 150k	1.8M – 5.0M	estimate, quality automation
Utilities, solar, battery, HVAC, clean zones, racking	863k – 1,477k	28.5M – 48.7M	utilities CSV baseline re-sized for three presses: chiller bank two modules instead of three
Building ~1,500 m² plus civil and site works	650k – 1,100k	21.4M – 36.3M	estimate at 12,000 – 20,000 THB/m² plus ~20 % site works; soil is the main variable
Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door	97k – 227k	3.2M – 7.5M	estimate, crane, workshop and tours
Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out	30k – 76k	1.0M – 2.5M	estimate, same
Visitor corridor and accessible entrance	67k – 148k	2.2M – 4.9M	estimate, same
Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules	73k – 122k	2.4M – 4.0M	estimate, scale
Factory software, ERPNext, artist platform public side	115k – 310k	3.8M – 10.2M	estimate: factory software 60k – 170k, ERPNext implementation 15k – 50k (digital factory), artist platform 40k – 90k (artist platform)
Cassette duplication and CD-R duplication	55k – 190k	1.8M – 6.3M	estimate, business plan sections 4.8 and 4.9
Freight, installation, commissioning, training (Pheenix, Sibert, Sillitoe, Newbilt beyond its quoted 5 days)	150k – 300k	5.0M – 9.9M	estimate
Working capital, PVC stock, spares, lease deposit, first-year rent	135k – 290k	4.5M – 9.6M	estimate; land is leased, so no land purchase
Subtotal	~4.24M – 7.50M	~140M – 248M	midpoint ~5.87M USD, ~194M THB
Contingency 15 %	~0.64M – 1.13M	~21M – 37M
Total, launch plant	~4.9M – 8.6M USD	~161M – 285M THB	midpoint ~6.76M USD, ~223M THB

Not in the total: a reserve for the ramp-up (staff hired before first revenue, overheads until volume covers them; ~10M to 20M THB, estimate), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves, the archive's mobile shelving (to quote), and the central hydraulic plant around the Newbilt aggregates: standby pump set, accumulator station and ring main (not costed yet; a Thai HPU builder quotes it, Chinese suppliers). The blocks are vendor prices without Thai duty or import VAT, so they assume BOI promotion: without it, ~5 % duty on ~2.3M USD of imported machinery (~0.11M USD) comes on top, plus ~0.17M USD of import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).

The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)

Superseded by Two plans below. Written against the earlier Pheenix estimate (USD 320k to 650k, total ~227M THB at the midpoint); its galvanics lever is now the base price.

The project's investor asked whether the plant can be built for 180M THB (~5.45M USD), possibly up to 20 % more (216M THB, ~6.55M USD).

Case	Launch plant	Against 180M	Against 216M
Low end of every block	~161M THB	fits, ~19M to spare	fits
Midpoint	~227M THB	~47M over	~11M over
High end of every block	~292M THB	~112M over	~76M over

Read honestly: 216M THB is a realistic target for the full equipment list; 180M THB holds only if the open quotes land low. At the midpoint four levers bring the plant inside 216M without dropping any of the machines decided above (midpoint values with their share of the contingency, estimates):

Lever	Saves	Launch plant after it
Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the EPC owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power) instead of buying them	~12.3M THB	~214M THB
Metrology launch tier (XRF, inline vision, audio station), the laser confocal and the wide-area profiler bought from revenue	~10.1M THB	~204M THB
Pheenix galvanics priced near OMS's reference for a 4-cell wet room	~6.7M THB	~198M THB
Visitor corridor built later; the plant runs without public tours at first	~4.1M THB	~193M THB

Add the ramp-up reserve of ~10M to 20M THB and that is ~203M to 213M THB, inside the 216M. Reaching 180M at the midpoint needs scope cuts on top: cassette and CD-R later (~4.6M THB) and renting a crane for the installations while the frame stays crane-ready (~3.7M THB) give ~185M before the reserve, still above 180M, so 180M is a low-quote outcome, not a plan.

Chinese suppliers for the boilers, compressed air and hydraulics were checked in October 2026 (Chinese suppliers): about 2M THB at the midpoint, ~2.5M with its share of the contingency, mostly on the two boiler modules (ASME-stamped 1.25 MPa units from makers with Thai references, installed by a Thai contractor) and a little on the compressor (a Chinese brand bought through its Thai office). That is about 1 % of the target and does not change the answer; the Newbilt hydraulic aggregates stay Newbilt's. Chinese chillers and HVAC, larger blocks, are not checked yet.

What decides it: the two largest machine lines have no price at all (the Classic and the Pheenix galvanics line), and the building depends on the soil. Four requests settle most of the band: the Newbilt re-quote for the Duplex and the Classic, a Pheenix quote for the galvanics line, the building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology stack. Until they are in, quote ~216M THB to the investor as the target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.

Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~210M THB (October 2026)

Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in two versions for the investor, built from the same documents:

• Plan A, ~180M THB: the launch plant with every machine decided above (one Duplex system, one Classic, galvanics, Sibert, the cutting room), brought down with six cost levers.
• Plan B, ~210M THB: the same launch plant, one Duplex system and one Classic, with everything in: none of Plan A's six levers taken. First drawn as five presses at ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %); re-defined by the user on 17 October 2026 ("plan b should also only start with 1 duplex and 1 classic, but with all levers"). In both plans the second Duplex system is a growth step from revenue.

Both are priced without contingency (user decision) and with the ramp-up reserve, because the reserve is cash the investor puts in before volume carries the plant. Pheenix galvanics is priced at OMS's reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:

Plan A: launch plant with six levers	Saves	Subtotal after it
Launch plant, every block, no contingency		~193.8M THB (~5.87M USD)
Rooftop solar and battery through a solar PPA (the installer owns and finances the array, the plant buys the power)	~10.7M	~183.1M
Metrology launch tier: XRF, inline vision and audio station at launch; laser confocal and wide-area profiler (USD 180k to 350k) bought from revenue	~8.8M	~174.4M
Visitor corridor built later; no public tours at first	~3.6M	~170.8M
Cassette and CD-R duplication later	~4.0M	~166.8M
Crane rented for the installations; frame, runway and machine door stay crane-ready	~3.2M	~163.6M
Boilers and compressor through the Chinese route (Chinese suppliers)	~1.9M	~161.7M (~4.90M USD)
Ramp-up reserve		+10M to 20M
Plan A		~177M THB (~5.35M USD), ~127M to 226M from the low to the high end of every block

Plan B: the launch plant, everything in	USD	THB
Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar and battery ~10.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~32M THB at the midpoint)	4.24M – 7.50M	~140M – 248M, ~193.8M (~5.87M USD) at the midpoint
Ramp-up reserve		+10M to 20M
Plan B		~209M THB (~6.33M USD): ~210M, ~150M to 268M from the low to the high end of every block

Plan B costs ~32M THB (~18 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint, stays within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (its high end, ~268M, does not). It keeps what Plan A leases or defers: owned solar and battery (and with them the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack from the first release, the visitor corridor and tours from the start, cassette and CD-R, the bought crane, Thai-supplied utilities with local service. Both plans have the same three presses and make the same ~0.58 to 0.90 million records a year at the planned 60 % specials (Duplex-limited); the operating pictures are in the revenue model. The plant and business plan calculator has both as presets.

Not in either plan price:

• Contingency. The blocks are budgetary (plus or minus 30 to 50 % on the estimates, top of this page), so the plans carry no buffer for quotes landing high. At this page's 15 % that would be ~24M THB on Plan A and ~29M on Plan B at the midpoint.
• The central hydraulic plant (not costed yet), the archive's mobile shelving (to quote), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves, and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).

What decides between them: not demand, since both make the same records, but whether the investor funds ~32M THB more at launch for what Plan A leases or buys from revenue. On the modelled numbers Plan B's extra earns nothing (same EBITDA, more depreciation, a longer payback); its case rests on what the operating table leaves out: the BOI solar measure (only an owned array qualifies), full stamper metrology for the traceability pitch from the first release, tours and the Payap programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, and utilities with local service. Most of Plan B's items can be added to Plan A later from revenue; the solar measure and the corridor are cheaper to have from the start. Both plans keep the second Duplex as a growth step, with its floor, utility positions and ring-main tees reserved: ~15.4M THB at the midpoint for the system (~8.7M), a third chiller module CH-3 (~2.1M), their freight and installation (~1.2M) and the working capital for the extra records (~3.4M), estimates on the calculator's basis, as first priced for the five-press Plan B.

Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)

The five-press full vision below is superseded by the launch plant above. Scale, pressing line, roadmap, revenue model (which now has a launch-plant operating picture) and the fleet calculator are re-based on the launch plant; the business plan is next. It stays for the record of how the blocks were built.

Block	USD	THB	Basis
Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex	350k – 370k	11.5M – 12.2M	2024 quote EUR 200,500 (~USD 232k) + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~USD 115k; expired, needs re-quote. The fleet has since changed, see the added-scope table
2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12)	580k – 920k	19.1M – 30.5M	unverified ~USD 340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning. Replaced by the Newbilt Classic in the current fleet, see the added-scope table
Galvanics line (Digital Matrix or Pheenix Alpha)	320k – 650k	10.7M – 21.4M	six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research; the Pheenix range (2024 flyers, galvanics and stamper prep) is unpriced too; OMS's reference prices (letter, 9 October 2026) put a complete 4-cell wet room at EUR 224k basic to 311k advanced (~USD 259k to 359k; ~270k to 371k with know-how transfer), installation and water treatment extra: at or below this block's low end, kept until quotes exist
Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD)	90k – 240k	3.0M – 8.0M	utilities CSV option row
Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC)	60k – 170k	1.9M – 5.7M	estimate kept until the re-base; Sibert has since confirmed USD 250k for the three (its time, spares, shipping and travel extra), the difference is in the table below
Mastering and cutting room (Agnew or Sillitoe lathe system, cutter amps, console, room treatment)	290k – 580k	9.6M – 19.1M	estimate, bespoke market; the Sillitoe SDMS lists at USD 125k for lathe, head, amplifier and automation (ex tax, shipping), which makes the low end reachable; band kept until both quotes exist
Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station)	350k – 810k	11.5M – 26.7M	estimate, phaseable
Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline	730k – 1,270k	24.0M – 41.6M	reviewed utilities CSV, THB-native; sized for one Duplex, the five-press re-size is in the table below
Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works	650k – 1,100k	21.4M – 36.2M	estimate at 12,000–20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works
Land 6–8 rai, if purchased	360k – 970k	12.0M – 32.0M	estimate at 2–4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront
Traceability and factory software	60k – 170k	1.9M – 5.7M	estimate
Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment)	120k – 230k	3.8M – 7.6M	estimate
Working capital, PVC stock, spares	120k – 230k	3.8M – 7.6M	estimate
Subtotal	~4.1M – 7.7M	~135M – 254M
Contingency 15%	~0.6M – 1.2M	~20M – 38M
Total, full vision	~4.7M – 8.9M USD	~155M – 294M THB

Added scope, not yet in the roll-up

Decided, or re-priced by a vendor, after the roll-up above was compiled; carried here until the next re-base folds them into the blocks (the building, software and stamper prep lines, and the contingency on top).

Block	USD	THB	Basis
Overhead crane, runway, frame premium, machine door	97k – 227k	3.2M – 7.5M	estimate, crane, workshop and tours
Maintenance workshop and machine bay fit-out	30k – 76k	1.0M – 2.5M	estimate, same
Visitor corridor and accessible entrance	67k – 148k	2.2M – 4.9M	estimate, same
Artist platform, public side (calculator, campaigns, payments)	40k – 90k	1.3M – 3.0M	estimate, artist platform
PVC material lab, day-one tier (incl. plaque press and sample conditioning)	55k – 150k	1.8M – 5.0M	estimate, quality automation; not costed in the metrology block above. The mature tier (torque rheometer, DSC, FTIR, ~120k – 240k) is deferred, with partner labs in between
Stamper prep re-priced: USD 250k for VSP, VSF and VSC against the 60k – 170k block above	+190k (low case) / +80k (high case)	+6.3M / +2.6M	Sibert's budget confirmation, email of 5 October 2026 (galvanics and stamper prep); itemised quotation to follow. Its time, spare parts, shipping and travel are extra and fall into the freight/installation and spares blocks above
Press fleet changed (October 2026) to two Newbilt Duplex systems (two presses each, EX 50 main extruder and EX 35 colour extruder) plus one Newbilt Classic, replacing the two blocks above (930k – 1,290k): Duplex system 1 as the first block (350k – 370k; the quote's second-extruder option becomes the EX 35), system 2 ~230k – 300k (two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set as the yardstick, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35, estimate; no EX 35 price on file), the Classic ~290k – 460k (the AD12 band per press as a placeholder; no Newbilt price on file)	−60k (low case) / −160k (high case)	−2.0M / −5.3M	estimate, pressing line; the Newbilt re-quote replaces it. The utilities for five presses are re-sized in the row below
Utilities re-sized for the five-press fleet (October 2026): boiler bank 2 × 500 kg/h, chiller bank 3 × 250 kW with plate heat exchanger and tanks, larger softener and loop treatment (steam and cooling)	+185k (low case) / +294k (high case)	+6.1M / +9.7M	estimate, utilities CSV re-based from 24.0M – 41.6M to 30.1M – 51.3M THB
Utility yard built for four boiler and four chiller modules (October 2026): yard ~379 m² against 178 m² (scale)	73k – 122k	2.4M – 4.0M	estimate: the building rate above on the ~200 m² the yard grows by; the open chiller compound costs less than a building, so this is the cautious end. The valved branches and feeders for the empty positions are not priced yet
ERPNext for the whole plant (October 2026): configuration with Thai tax, integration with every tool, Nix packaging; vinyl-erp server	to quote	to quote	not in the sum: 3.5 to 6 person-months in-house or a partner quote (Ecosoft), plus 2k to 4k USD hardware (digital factory); no licence fee
Archive mobile shelving for the father and mother archive (October 2026)	to quote	to quote	not in the sum: A-Z Solutions publishes no prices; quote it and a Thai supplier (facility security)
Added so far	~678k – 1,027k	~22.3M – 33.9M	about 13 to 17% on the full-vision subtotal

Phased entry (superseded October 2026)

Superseded by the launch plant above, which launches with galvanics, the cutting room and three presses. The earlier phased entry, kept for reference: a launch phase of roughly 1.7M to 2.9M USD (~57M to 95M THB):

• Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
• Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
• Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full metrology deferred; the PVC lab's day-one tier is the added-scope row above
• Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
• Galvanics, the second Duplex system and the Classic, full metrology, and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions

The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for exactly this reason.

What moves the number

• BOI: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see boi.md). The blocks are vendor prices without Thai duty or import VAT, so the headline assumes promotion: without it, ~0.14M USD of duty and ~0.2M USD of import VAT (reclaimable later) come on top at the start fleet (estimate)
• Buy vs lease on land and building swings roughly 1.0M to 2.1M USD (~34M to 69M THB) of upfront capital, and also moves the launch date by about three quarters; see project-timeline.md
• Biggest uncertainty bands: metrology (partly a choice of ambition), the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the Newbilt Classic (no price on file), and land
• Currency exposure is real and is not modelled here. Revenue is mostly USD/EUR from export customers, the cost base is mostly THB, and the largest single equipment block is EUR-denominated and unhedged against an order that will not be placed for roughly a year (see project-timeline.md). A 10% move in EUR/THB between now and the Newbilt order is worth ~USD 25–35k on that line alone. Ask for the re-quote to state its currency and validity period.
• Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in equipment-suppliers.md lists who to ask