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Plan B re-defined: the launch plant with everything in (~210M THB); front view on the cover
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- Plan B now starts like Plan A with one Duplex system and one Classic,
  but takes none of the six levers: owned solar and battery (with the BOI
  solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor corridor, cassette
  and CD-R, the bought crane and Thai-supplied utilities (user, 17 October
  2026). ~193.8M THB before the reserve, ~209M with it (~150M to 268M),
  ~32M (~18 %) more than Plan A; the second Duplex is a growth step from
  revenue in both (~15.4M THB, estimate).
- total-investment.md "Two plans" re-based (heading and anchor now
  "B at ~210M THB", README and roadmap links updated); revenue-model.md
  operating pictures: same volume and EBITDA as Plan A, depreciation on
  Plan B's capital (operating profit 1.26M USD central, payback ~3.7 yr);
  the extra earns nothing in the modelled table, which the docs say.
- Calculator: Plan B preset = the launch plant with contingency kept out
  (EBITDA 2.07M USD, cash payback year ~4.3, IRR ~21 %); budget card marks
  180M and 180M plus 25 %; preset label "Plan B (~210M, all in)".
- Business plan draft 0.3, both versions rebuilt: every Plan B branch of
  the three content files rewritten; renders regenerated with the
  isometric view turned to the front of the site (road, car park, office,
  corridor facade) for the cover and Figures 8 to 10.
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docs/finance/revenue-model.md
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@@ -669,44 +669,38 @@ What it says:
## Operating pictures of Plan A and Plan B (October 2026)
The business plan comes in two versions
([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)):
**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers, three
presses) and **Plan B** (~224M THB, the second Duplex at launch, five
presses), both priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve.
Same method and cases as above, at the planned 60 % specials (estimates):
([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)):
**Plan A** (~177M THB, the launch plant with six cost levers) and
**Plan B** (~209M THB, the same launch plant with everything in), both
priced without contingency and with the ramp-up reserve. Both run the
same three presses, so volume, price, direct cost, title services and
overheads are those of the launch-plant table above; only the
depreciation follows each plan's capital (estimates):
- **Plan A** runs the launch plant, so volume, price, direct cost, title
services and overheads are those of the table above; only the
depreciation follows its lower capital: the high end of Plan A's blocks
(6.25M USD) over 10 years, the midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low
end (3.56M USD) over 15. The solar PPA adds its power price to the
energy line (~0.03M USD a year in the calculator), not shown here.
- **Plan B**'s five presses are not Duplex-limited at 60 % specials: the
four semi-automatic presses (240 to 320 records an hour) carry the
specials and the Classic the rest, so volume is the five-press band,
**1.0 / 1.25 / 1.5M** records. Direct cost per record is the five-press
table's 2.58 / 1.94 / 1.30 USD (the same payroll over more records);
title services 300 / 375 / 400 titles at 580 / 1,155 / 1,730 USD and 60
/ 65 / 70 % contribution (the five-press table's 0.10 / 0.28 / 0.48M);
depreciation on Plan B's blocks: 8.07M USD over 10 years, 6.34M over
12.5, 4.61M over 15.
- **Plan A**: the high end of its blocks (6.25M USD) over 10 years, the
midpoint (4.90M USD) over 12.5, the low end (3.56M USD) over 15. The
solar PPA adds its power price to the energy line (~0.03M USD a year in
the calculator), not shown here.
- **Plan B**: 7.50M USD over 10 years, 5.87M over 12.5, 4.24M over 15.
Its owned solar saves the PPA power bill; cassette and CD-R sales, tours
and the Payap programmes it opens from the start are not modelled.
- **Payback** is counted on the whole plan price including the ramp-up
reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.92M / 6.79M /
8.67M USD from the low to the high end).
reserve (Plan A 3.86M / 5.35M / 6.85M USD, Plan B 4.55M / 6.33M /
8.11M USD from the low to the high end).
| USD/yr | A adverse | A central | A favourable | B adverse | B central | B favourable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Records | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M | 1.0M | 1.25M | 1.5M |
| Records | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M | 0.58M | 0.74M | 0.90M |
| Blended price (60 % specials) | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 | 3.76 | 4.49 | 5.27 |
| Direct cost | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 | 2.58 | 1.94 | 1.30 |
| Pressing contribution | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M | 1.18M | 3.19M | 5.96M |
| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M | 0.10M | 0.28M | 0.48M |
| Direct cost | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 | 2.70 | 2.00 | 1.35 |
| Pressing contribution | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M | 0.61M | 1.83M | 3.51M |
| Title-services contribution | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M | 0.07M | 0.23M | 0.48M |
| Cash overheads | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M | 0.45M | 0.33M | 0.20M |
| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** | **0.83M** | **3.14M** | **6.24M** |
| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.81M | 0.51M | 0.31M |
| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **0.02M** | **2.63M** | **5.93M** |
| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 3.93M (~130M THB) | 6.05M (~200M THB) | 8.60M (~284M THB) |
| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~10.5 yr | ~2.2 yr (1.6 to 2.8) | ~0.8 yr |
| **EBITDA** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** | **0.23M** | **1.73M** | **3.79M** |
| Depreciation | 0.62M | 0.39M | 0.24M | 0.75M | 0.47M | 0.28M |
| **Operating profit** | **-0.39M** | **1.34M** | **3.55M** | **-0.52M** | **1.26M** | **3.51M** |
| Revenue | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) | 2.28M (~75M THB) | 3.65M (~120M THB) | 5.41M (~179M THB) |
| Payback on the plan price (EBITDA, mature year) | ~30 yr | ~3.1 yr (2.2 to 4.0) | ~1.0 yr | ~35 yr | ~3.7 yr (2.6 to 4.7) | ~1.2 yr |
What it says:
@@ -714,29 +708,27 @@ What it says:
year**; its adverse corner still loses money, because it would need
~0.9 million records to cover depreciation and the three presses make
0.58 million at that rate.
- **Plan B** breaks even at ~0.22 million records and its adverse corner
just covers depreciation (~1.0 million records needed, 1.0 million
made): more presses spread the same crews, overheads and title services
over more records. Its central EBITDA is ~1.8 times Plan A's for ~27 %
more money.
- **But Plan B only earns this if the records sell.** Its central case
needs ~1.25 million records a year, ~0.75 million of them special
editions, against 0.74 million for Plan A; nothing in the market data
so far shows that demand (roadmap item 1). The ramp to that volume is
longer, and the ramp-up reserve (10M to 20M THB) is the same estimate
as for Plan A.
- **The caveats above hold for both:** central EBITDA margins of ~47 %
(A) and ~52 % (B) are far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn,
the cost of specials is not in the direct cost yet, and neither plan
carries a contingency. Treat the adverse columns as the honest ones.
- **Plan B** breaks even at **~0.23 million records**, and its adverse
corner loses more (~1.1 million records needed to cover depreciation).
At the central cost and volume the price that covers its depreciation
is ~2.8 USD (~91 THB) a record.
- **On these numbers Plan B's extra ~32M THB earns nothing**: the same
EBITDA, more depreciation and a longer payback. Its case rests on what
the table leaves out: the BOI solar measure on the owned array, the
PPA power bill it avoids, full stamper metrology from the first
release, tours, the Payap programmes, and cassette and CD-R sales.
- **The caveats above hold for both:** a central EBITDA margin of ~47 %
is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn, the cost of specials
is not in the direct cost yet, and neither plan carries a contingency.
Treat the adverse columns as the honest ones.
The [calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) presets, at the team's
planning rates (3 records a minute per Duplex system) and its own cost
build-up, give: **Plan A** at 850k records EBITDA 2.04M USD, payback 2.4
build-up, give at 850k records: **Plan A** EBITDA 2.04M USD, payback 2.4
years on the investment, cash payback in year ~3.9 and ~25 % IRR over ten
years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** at 1.25M records EBITDA
3.25M USD, payback 2.0 years, cash payback in year ~3.3 and ~32 % IRR
(pre-tax, pre-financing, estimates).
years with the reserve in year 0; **Plan B** EBITDA 2.07M USD, payback 2.8
years, cash payback in year ~4.3 and ~21 % IRR (pre-tax, pre-financing,
estimates).
## Operating picture at full capacity (five-press fleet)
docs/finance/total-investment.md
+37 -26
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@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ import VAT paid at the border and reclaimed later (estimates).
### The investor's question: 180M THB, maybe 20 % more (October 2026)
*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-225m-thb-october-2026)
*Superseded by [Two plans](#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-210m-thb-october-2026)
below. Written against the earlier Pheenix estimate (USD 320k to 650k,
total ~227M THB at the midpoint); its galvanics lever is now the base
price.*
@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ building RFQ with a soil test, and distributor quotes for the metrology
stack. Until they are in, quote **~216M THB** to the investor as the
target with the levers above, and 180M as the low-quote case.
## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~225M THB (October 2026)
## Two plans: A at ~180M THB and B at ~210M THB (October 2026)
Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two
versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
@@ -139,8 +139,12 @@ versions** for the investor, built from the same documents:
- **Plan A, ~180M THB**: the launch plant with every machine decided
above (one Duplex system, one Classic, galvanics, Sibert, the cutting
room), brought down with six cost levers.
- **Plan B, ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %)**: the second Duplex system at
launch, so five presses, with everything in.
- **Plan B, ~210M THB**: the same launch plant, one Duplex system and
one Classic, with everything in: none of Plan A's six levers taken.
First drawn as five presses at ~225M THB (Plan A plus 25 %); re-defined
by the user on 17 October 2026 ("plan b should also only start with 1
duplex and 1 classic, but with all levers"). In both plans the second
Duplex system is a growth step from revenue.
Both are priced **without contingency** (user decision) and **with the
ramp-up reserve**, because the reserve is cash the investor puts in
@@ -159,24 +163,21 @@ reference plus 20 % in both. Midpoints, estimates:
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan A** | | **~177M THB (~5.35M USD)**, ~127M to 226M from the low to the high end of every block |
| Plan B: five presses, everything in | USD | THB, midpoint |
| Plan B: the launch plant, everything in | USD | THB |
|---|---|---|
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~193.8M |
| Second Duplex system: two HRP 12, EX 50 and EX 35 (calculator basis: two presses at the quoted ~115k per press and extruder set, plus hydraulic unit and EX 35; no EX 35 price on file) | 230k – 300k | +8.7M |
| Third chiller module, CH-3 (250 kW; the two boiler modules carry 750 to 900 kg/h) | 48k – 78k | +2.1M |
| Freight and installation for the extra machinery | 24k – 48k | +1.2M |
| Working capital for ~1.25M records a year instead of 0.85M | 64k – 139k | +3.4M |
| Subtotal | **4.61M – 8.07M** | **~209.2M (~6.34M USD)** |
| Launch plant, every block, no contingency (the six lever items included: owned solar and battery ~10.7M, full metrology ~8.8M, visitor corridor ~3.6M, cassette and CD-R ~4.0M, bought crane ~3.2M, Thai boilers and compressor ~1.9M, together ~32M THB at the midpoint) | 4.24M – 7.50M | ~140M – 248M, **~193.8M (~5.87M USD)** at the midpoint |
| Ramp-up reserve | | +10M to 20M |
| **Plan B** | | **~224M THB (~6.79M USD)**, ~162M to 286M from the low to the high end of every block |
| **Plan B** | | **~209M THB (~6.33M USD): ~210M**, ~150M to 268M from the low to the high end of every block |
Plan B keeps what Plan A gives up: owned solar and battery (and with
them the BOI solar measure), the full metrology stack, the visitor
corridor, the bought crane, cassette and CD-R, Thai-supplied utilities.
Its five presses make ~1.0 to 1.5 million records a year at the planned
60 % specials (the [scale](../scale.md#production-capacity) basis; not
Duplex-limited), against ~0.58 to 0.90 million for Plan A's three; the
operating pictures of both are in the
Plan B costs ~32M THB (~18 %) more than Plan A and, at the midpoint,
stays within the investor's 180M THB plus 20 % (its high end, ~268M, does
not). It keeps what Plan A leases or defers:
owned solar and battery (and with them the BOI solar measure), the full
metrology stack from the first release, the visitor corridor and tours
from the start, cassette and CD-R, the bought crane, Thai-supplied
utilities with local service. Both plans have the same three presses and
make the same ~0.58 to 0.90 million records a year at the planned 60 %
specials (Duplex-limited); the operating pictures are in the
[revenue model](revenue-model.md#operating-pictures-of-plan-a-and-plan-b-october-2026).
The [plant and business plan calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) has
both as presets.
@@ -185,17 +186,27 @@ both as presets.
- **Contingency.** The blocks are budgetary (plus or minus 30 to 50 % on
the estimates, top of this page), so the plans carry no buffer for
quotes landing high. At this page's 15 % that would be ~24M THB on
Plan A and ~31M on Plan B at the midpoint.
Plan A and ~29M on Plan B at the midpoint.
- The central hydraulic plant (not costed yet), the archive's mobile
shelving (to quote), CD replication, financing costs, currency moves,
and Thai duty and import VAT (the blocks assume BOI promotion).
**What decides between them:** demand. Plan B needs ~1.25 million records
sold a year in its central case, about 70 % more than Plan A's 0.74
million, three fifths of them special editions; market validation
(roadmap item 1) is the evidence for that. Plan A keeps the second Duplex
as a growth step from revenue, with its floor, utility positions and
ring-main tees reserved.
**What decides between them:** not demand, since both make the same
records, but whether the investor funds ~32M THB more at launch for what
Plan A leases or buys from revenue. On the modelled numbers Plan B's
extra earns nothing (same EBITDA, more depreciation, a longer payback);
its case rests on what the operating table leaves out: the BOI solar
measure (only an owned array qualifies), full stamper metrology for the
traceability pitch from the first release, tours and the Payap
programmes from day one, cassette and CD-R sales, and utilities with
local service. Most of Plan B's items can be added to Plan A later from
revenue; the solar measure and the corridor are cheaper to have from
the start. Both plans keep the second Duplex as a growth step, with its
floor, utility positions and ring-main tees reserved: ~15.4M THB at the
midpoint for the system (~8.7M), a third chiller module CH-3 (~2.1M),
their freight and installation (~1.2M) and the working capital for the
extra records (~3.4M), estimates on the calculator's basis, as first
priced for the five-press Plan B.
## Full vision, all blocks (July 2026, superseded)