Share price for the 40 %: market-based ranges, deck slide 13

User, 20 Oct 2026: add a page about possible share prices, do some
calculation on normal market data.

- docs/finance/share-price.md (new): market data with sources and
  dates (Damodaran January 2026 EV/EBITDA, P/E and betas for emerging
  markets and global; Thailand ERP 6.18 % (July 2026); ThaiBMA 10-year
  2.30 % (19 Oct 2026); illiquidity discount 20 to 35 %; venture target
  returns by stage; SET peers SCGP, TPAC, SITHAI, GRAMMY; Thai Civil and
  Commercial Code on par value and premiums).
- Results, all estimates: A founding round at par, pari passu: 542,500
  shares of 100 THB at Plan B's 54.25M equity floor, the 40 % ~21.7M
  THB; B a premium only for documented pre-round costs (102 to 137 THB);
  C value per share once running at ~163M THB debt: adverse ~0, central
  126 to 1,016 THB, favourable 508 to 2,512 THB; D a financial investor
  today 18 to 236 THB (central); E calculator cross-check. Recommendation:
  par for the founding round; pre-emption and information rights for the
  40 %.
- Deck: new slide 13 "Share price: what the 40 % could cost" in both
  themes, with notes; the ask slide points to it; 17 slides, both PDFs
  rebuilt; site slide notes trimmed.
- README bullet, layout line and Project Status link; total-investment
  shareholding paragraph links the page.

docs/pitch/index.html

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 .cmp td.n:nth-child(3),.kp td.n:nth-child(3){color:var(--mu)}
 
+/* ---------- share price (after BOI and financing) ---------- */
+.s11b .bd{grid-template-columns:800px 1fr;gap:72px;margin-top:30px}
+.sp td{font-size:20px;padding:12px 12px}
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+.vcl b{color:var(--tx);font-weight:600}
+
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-h1,h2,.stat .v,.s1 .keys .v,.big3 .v,.tot2 .v,.fin .need .v,.ask .v,.kp4 .v,.chain .nm,.flow .fs .nm,.ppl .nm,.pill4 .h,.feat .h,.unl .h{padding-bottom:.1em}
+h1,h2,.stat .v,.s1 .keys .v,.big3 .v,.tot2 .v,.fin .need .v,.ask .v,.kp4 .v,.dev .v,.chain .nm,.flow .fs .nm,.ppl .nm,.pill4 .h,.feat .h,.unl .h{padding-bottom:.1em}
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 /* screenshots of the web tools: a dark and a light version, swapped with the theme */
@@ -593,7 +606,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
   </div>
   <p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md; scale.md; crane-workshop-tours.md; Payap rezoning: land-listings/payap/rezoning-2026-10-20.md (Town Planning Act B.E. 2562, section 35; the planning department's amendment work plan, ~70 to 82 weeks). Render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan B preset (figure 9). The 60 × 25 m hall is the Mueang Chi design; the layout is fixed once a plot passes zoning and lease-ability.</p>
   <footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
-  <aside class="notes">The strategy is a long lease of raw land with a purpose-built plant on it. That keeps an estimated 12M to 32M THB of land purchase out of the round, but it also means there is no land to pledge: the lease must give the company ownership of the buildings and the right to mortgage or assign them. Mueang Chi in Lamphun is the working candidate; its zoning is still unverified. Payap University land in Chiang Mai remains an option: the plot it first gave is zoned residential, and on 20 October Payap said it can be rezoned. That is an amendment of the city plan under section 35 of the Town Planning Act, which the planning department itself schedules at about 16 to 19 months, so it would move first production unless the request starts now. The next step is to ask Payap for the plot and the planning office's answer in writing. Plan B builds the crane and the visitor corridor from the start. The render shows the calculator's Payap scenario layout, not a decided site. Sources: business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md.</aside>
+  <aside class="notes">The strategy is a long lease of raw land with a purpose-built plant: it keeps an estimated 12M to 32M THB of land purchase out of the round, but there is no land to pledge, so the lease must give the company the buildings and the right to mortgage them. Mueang Chi in Lamphun is the working candidate; its zoning is still unverified. Payap University land in Chiang Mai stays an option: its first plot is zoned residential, and Payap says it can be rezoned. That is a city-plan amendment the planning department schedules at about 16 to 19 months, so it would move first production unless it starts now; we need the plot and the planning office's answer in writing. Sources: business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md.</aside>
 </section>
 
 <!-- 7 -->
@@ -796,7 +809,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
       </div>
       <dl class="dl" style="margin-top:16px;grid-template-columns:130px 1fr;gap:12px 18px">
         <dt>Collateral</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">The machinery and equipment, in Plan B including the owned PV array and battery. The building only if the lease grants its ownership and the right to mortgage it. No land collateral: the site is a long lease of raw land.</dd>
-        <dt>Use of funds</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">Equipment (presses, metal path, metrology, lab) ~85M THB; building, crane, workshop and corridor ~40M; utilities ~35M; solar and battery ~15M; software, cassette and CD-R, freight, working capital and phase 0 ~28M (block midpoints <span class="e">est.</span>), plus the reserve, in tranches (slide 16).</dd>
+        <dt>Use of funds</dt><dd style="font-size:17.5px">Equipment (presses, metal path, metrology, lab) ~85M THB; building, crane, workshop and corridor ~40M; utilities ~35M; solar and battery ~15M; software, cassette and CD-R, freight, working capital and phase 0 ~28M (block midpoints <span class="e">est.</span>), plus the reserve, in tranches (slide 17).</dd>
       </dl>
       <p class="tbd">Financing structure to be agreed: no loan terms, interest rate or debt-service figures are on file.</p>
     </div>
@@ -806,6 +819,40 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
   <aside class="notes">Vinyl pressing lands in BOI Group B: duty-free machinery, full foreign ownership and work permits, no tax holiday on the core activity. Solar is no longer promoted; Plan B owns its array for the bill. The condition that shapes financing is debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1: at least a quarter of Plan B's 217M, about 54M THB, is equity. The lead investor holds at least 60&nbsp;% of the company, so at most 40&nbsp;% is open to co-investors; at that floor and one share price, about 32M and 22M THB, arithmetic only. No loan terms are on file. Collateral: machinery, array, battery; the land is leased. Sources: boi.md; business plan B, sections 7.1 and 12.2.</aside>
 </section>
 
+<!-- share price, after BOI and financing -->
+<section class="slide s11b" data-title="Share price">
+  <div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Share price: what the 40&nbsp;% could cost</div>
+  <h2>At par, the 40&nbsp;% costs ~21.7M THB; what it is worth later is a range</h2>
+  <div class="bd">
+    <div>
+      <h3>Founding round at par, pari passu: Plan B at the 3:1 equity floor</h3>
+      <table class="tb sp">
+        <tr><th>100 THB a share <span class="e">example</span></th><th class="n">Shares</th><th class="n">THB</th></tr>
+        <tr><td>The lead investor, at least 60&nbsp;%</td><td class="n">325,500</td><td class="n">32.6M</td></tr>
+        <tr><td>Co-investors, at most 40&nbsp;%</td><td class="n">217,000</td><td class="n ac">21.7M</td></tr>
+        <tr class="tot"><td>Equity at the floor: a quarter of ~217M</td><td class="n">542,500</td><td class="n">54.25M</td></tr>
+      </table>
+      <p class="nt">With a third or half of the funding as equity the price stays 100 THB and the 40&nbsp;% costs ~28.9M or ~43.4M. Thai law: no shares below par, par at least 5 THB, a premium only if the memorandum allows it.</p>
+      <h3 style="margin-top:34px">Development premium, only for documented costs</h3>
+      <div class="dev">
+        <div class="card"><div class="v">105 THB <span class="e">+5&nbsp;%</span></div><div class="l">phase 0 spending, 2.6M THB, credited: the 40&nbsp;% costs 22.7M</div></div>
+        <div class="card"><div class="v">118 THB <span class="e">+18&nbsp;%</span></div><div class="l">10M THB credited for pre-round work: the 40&nbsp;% costs 25.7M</div></div>
+      </div>
+      <p class="vcl"><b>A financial co-investor today</b> (venture-capital method, first-stage target return 40 to 60&nbsp;%, central case in year 5): <b>18 to 236 THB a share</b> depending on the multiple; nothing in the adverse case.</p>
+    </div>
+    <div>
+      <h3>Value of one 100 THB share once the plant runs <span class="e">est.</span></h3>
+      <div class="legend" style="margin-bottom:6px"><span><i style="background:var(--acf)"></i>Range across market multiples, after the illiquidity discount</span><span><i style="background:transparent;height:2px;border-top:2px dashed var(--bf);border-radius:0;vertical-align:4px"></i>Par paid</span></div>
+      <svg class="chart" id="chShare" width="840" height="448" viewBox="0 0 840 448" role="img" aria-label="Value per share once the plant runs, by case, against the par price paid"></svg>
+      <p class="nt">EV/EBITDA 4.7x (Thai listed plastics and packaging) to 14.9x (emerging-market industries), less a 20 to 35&nbsp;% discount for a private minority stake; net debt the most 3:1 allows, ~163M THB; 542,500 shares.</p>
+      <div class="card warn" style="margin-top:16px;padding:16px 22px"><p class="t" style="font-size:17px"><b>Ranges, not a valuation or an offer price.</b> The adverse case is the honest one: the central margin (~47&nbsp;%) is far above the 15 to 25&nbsp;% plants earn. No loan terms are on file; co-investors need pre-emption and information rights.</p></div>
+    </div>
+  </div>
+  <p class="src"><b>Source:</b> share-price.md (October 2026); total-investment.md "Two plans"; revenue-model.md "Operating pictures"; Damodaran industry EV/EBITDA and betas (January 2026), country risk premiums (July 2026), illiquidity discount (2005), venture target returns (2009); ThaiBMA 10-year yield 2.30&nbsp;% (19 October 2026); SET peers via stockanalysis.com (20 October 2026); Civil and Commercial Code ss. 1105, 1117, 1222. Estimates.</p>
+  <footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
+  <aside class="notes">Before the plant exists a share is worth the cash behind it, so the defensible founding price is par, the same for everyone. At 100 THB a share and the 54M THB equity floor, the 40&nbsp;% is 217,000 shares, about 21.7M THB. Crediting documented phase 0 spending adds 2 to 5&nbsp;%; credit beyond that needs a documented basis. Once the plant runs, market multiples put a share anywhere from nothing in the adverse case to many times par in the central case; a financial investor at venture target returns would pay at most about par today. Hence pre-emption and information rights for the 40&nbsp;%. No loan terms are on file. Sources: share-price.md; revenue-model.md.</aside>
+</section>
+
 <!-- 13 -->
 <section class="slide s12" data-title="Schedule">
   <div class="kicker"><i class="disc"></i>Schedule</div>
@@ -906,7 +953,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
     <div>
       <div class="ask" style="display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:44px;align-items:start">
         <div><h3>Now: phase 0</h3><div class="v">1.3M to 2.6M THB</div><p class="s" style="margin-top:8px">~USD 40k to 80k over 3 to 6 months, part of the plan price: the BOI consultant, Thai counsel for the lease, zoning and the shareholders' agreement, a soil test, the quotes.</p></div>
-        <div><h3>On offer to co-investors</h3><div class="v">Up to 40&nbsp;%</div><p class="s" style="margin-top:8px">of the company, beside the lead investor's at least 60&nbsp;%: Ploy Printing, the founders, others. Share price and valuation not agreed; terms in the shareholders' agreement.</p></div>
+        <div><h3>On offer to co-investors</h3><div class="v">Up to 40&nbsp;%</div><p class="s" style="margin-top:8px">of the company, beside the lead investor's at least 60&nbsp;%: Ploy Printing, the founders, others. Share price not agreed: par is the default, ranges on slide 13; terms in the shareholders' agreement.</p></div>
       </div>
       <h3 style="margin-top:24px">Then Plan B at ~215M THB in tranches: share of the investment before the reserve <span class="e">est.</span></h3>
       <table class="tb tr">
@@ -944,14 +991,14 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
   </div>
   <p class="src"><b>Source:</b> business plan B, sections 8.3, 12.2, 14.1 and 14.2; total-investment.md "Two plans" (shareholding); roadmap.md phases 0 to 2. Tranche amounts are the shares applied to Plan B's ~201.6M THB before the reserve (arithmetic). Gates before any order: market validation, the BOI certificate, and land (zoning, lease terms, soil).</p>
   <footer class="ft"><span>CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026</span><span class="pg"></span></footer>
-  <aside class="notes">Now: approve phase 0, about 1.3M to 2.6M THB over three to six months, for the BOI consultant, counsel for the lease and the shareholders' agreement, the soil test and the quotes. Then, once validation, the BOI certificate and the land gates clear, a commitment in principle to Plan B at about 215M THB, released in tranches. On offer to co-investors: up to 40&nbsp;% of the company, as the lead investor holds at least 60&nbsp;%; share price and valuation are not agreed. Decisions: the equity and debt mix within 3:1, the shareholders' agreement, funding quotes that land high. Why not A? It stays on file as the lowest-capital variant. Sources: business plan B, sections 8.3, 12.2 and 14.</aside>
+  <aside class="notes">Now: approve phase 0, about 1.3M to 2.6M THB over three to six months: the BOI consultant, counsel for the lease and the shareholders' agreement, the soil test and the quotes. Then, once validation, the BOI certificate and the land gates clear, a commitment in principle to Plan B at about 215M THB, released in tranches. On offer to co-investors: up to 40&nbsp;%, as the lead investor holds at least 60&nbsp;%; share price not agreed, par the default (slide 13). Decisions: the equity and debt mix within 3:1, the shareholders' agreement, funding quotes that land high. Why not A? It stays on file as the lowest-capital variant. Sources: business plan B, sections 8.3, 12.2 and 14.</aside>
 </section>
 
 </div>
 
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   <button type="button" id="bPrev" title="Previous slide (Left)" aria-label="Previous slide"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M15 5l-7 7 7 7"/></svg></button>
-  <span class="cnt" id="cnt">1 / 16</span>
+  <span class="cnt" id="cnt">1 / 17</span>
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@@ -978,7 +1025,8 @@ const SRC = {
   bio:    "biomass.md; business plan B, sections 1 and 8.4",
   pv:     "sustainability.md 'What ~520 kWp means on the grid'; business plan B, section 1",
   tl:     "project-timeline.md, Gantt (August 2026 calendar)",
-  bp10:   "Business plan B, section 10"
+  bp10:   "Business plan B, section 10",
+  sp:     "share-price.md (October 2026): par round, development premium, value per share (Damodaran EV/EBITDA January 2026, SET peers 20 October 2026, illiquidity discount 20 to 35 %), venture-capital method"
 };
 const DATA = {
   fx: { usdThb: 33, src: "ti" },
@@ -1016,6 +1064,19 @@ const DATA = {
   },
   steam: { biomass: 0.67, electric: 4.9, src: "bio" },
   solar: { used: 633, plant: 1036, share: 61, src: "pv" },
+  /* share price for the 40 %: founding round at par (A), development premium (B), value per share once running (C,
+     floor share count, net debt 162.75M, after a 20 to 35 % illiquidity discount), VC-method price today (D) */
+  share: {
+    par: 100, shares: 542500, equity: 54.25, lead: { sh: 325500, thb: 32.55 }, open: { sh: 217000, thb: 21.7 }, src: "sp",
+    dev: [ { pre: 2.6, price: 105, prem: 4.8, cost40: 22.7 }, { pre: 10, price: 118, prem: 18.4, cost40: 25.7 } ],
+    value: { axis: 2600, src: "sp", rows: [
+      { k: "adv",  label: "Adverse",              sub: "EBITDA 7.6M THB a year",  lo: 0,   hi: 0,    neg: 1 },
+      { k: "norm", label: "Industry-norm margin", sub: "20 % of central revenue", lo: 0,   hi: 290,  x: "up to 2.9x par", faint: 1 },
+      { k: "cen",  label: "Central",              sub: "EBITDA 57.1M THB a year", lo: 126, hi: 1016, x: "1.3x to 10x par" },
+      { k: "fav",  label: "Favourable",           sub: "EBITDA 125.1M THB a year", lo: 508, hi: 2512, x: "5x to 25x par" }
+    ] },
+    vc: { lo: 18, hi: 236, rate: [40, 60], src: "sp" }
+  },
   gantt: { from: "2026-08-01", to: "2029-07-31", src: "tl", rows: [
     { g: "Phase 0", label: "Market validation",                  s: "2026-08-01", e: "2026-11-29" },
     { g: "Phase 0", label: "BOI consultant and application",     s: "2026-08-01", e: "2026-12-14" },
@@ -1177,6 +1238,34 @@ function chSolar() {
   el(s, "text", { x: W - 2, y: 64, "text-anchor": "end", fill: C.mu, "font-size": 14 }, "~" + D.used + " of ~" + D.plant.toLocaleString("en-US") + " MWh");
 }
 
+/* value of one share once running: a bar per case from the lowest to the highest market multiple, par paid as a dashed line */
+function chShare() {
+  const s = document.getElementById("chShare"); if (!s) return;
+  const S = DATA.share, D = S.value, L = 300, R = 828, T = 36, rh = 94, X = v => L + Math.max(0, v) / D.axis * (R - L);
+  const B = T + D.rows.length * rh, nf = v => v.toLocaleString("en-US");
+  for (const t of [0, 500, 1000, 1500, 2000, 2500]) {
+    el(s, "line", { x1: X(t), x2: X(t), y1: T - 4, y2: B, class: t ? "gr" : "ax" });
+    el(s, "text", { x: X(t), y: B + 24, "text-anchor": t ? "middle" : "start", "font-size": 14 }, nf(t));
+  }
+  el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: B + 24, "font-size": 14, fill: C.dim }, "THB a share");
+  const px = X(S.par);
+  el(s, "line", { x1: px, x2: px, y1: T - 22, y2: B, stroke: C.bf, "stroke-width": 2, "stroke-dasharray": "5 4" });
+  el(s, "text", { x: px + 8, y: T - 12, fill: C.b, "font-size": 14, "font-weight": 600 }, "par paid, " + S.par + " THB");
+  D.rows.forEach((r, i) => {
+    const y = T + i * rh;
+    el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: y + 38, fill: C.tx, "font-size": 19, "font-weight": 600 }, r.label);
+    el(s, "text", { x: 0, y: y + 63, fill: C.mu, "font-size": 15 }, r.sub);
+    el(s, "rect", { x: L, y: y + 44, width: R - L, height: 18, rx: 3, fill: C.track });
+    if (r.neg) {
+      el(s, "rect", { x: L - 1, y: y + 38, width: 6, height: 30, rx: 2, fill: C.negf });
+      el(s, "text", { x: px + 10, y: y + 32, fill: C.neg, "font-size": 16.5, "font-weight": 600 }, "~0: the debt exceeds the plant's value at every multiple");
+      return;
+    }
+    el(s, "rect", { x: X(r.lo), y: y + 44, width: Math.max(4, X(r.hi) - X(r.lo)), height: 18, rx: 3, fill: C.acf, "fill-opacity": r.faint ? 0.55 : 0.92 });
+    el(s, "text", { x: Math.max(X(r.lo), px + 10), y: y + 32, fill: r.faint ? C.tx2 : C.ac, "font-size": 16.5, "font-weight": 700 }, nf(r.lo) + " to " + nf(r.hi) + " THB \u00b7 " + r.x);
+  });
+}
+
 function chGantt() {
   const s = document.getElementById("chGantt"); if (!s) return;
   const D = DATA.gantt, L = 390, R = 1700, T = 30, rh = 24;
@@ -1435,7 +1524,7 @@ let idle = 0;
 function wake() { document.body.classList.add("ui"); clearTimeout(idle); idle = setTimeout(() => document.body.classList.remove("ui"), 2600); }
 
 function init() {
-  chPrice(); chInvest(); chOp(); chCash(); chSteam(); chSolar(); chGantt();
+  chPrice(); chInvest(); chOp(); chCash(); chSteam(); chSolar(); chGantt(); chShare();
   fit();
   window.addEventListener("resize", () => { fit(); if (ovOpen) scaleMinis(ov); if (pv) scaleMinis(pv); });
   document.addEventListener("keydown", onKey);