diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index b351190..230444b 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -86,6 +86,7 @@ steps are open planning items. Plan B** (19 October 2026); the investor deck leads with it. The main investor holds **at least 60 % of the company**, so at most 40 % is for sale to co-investors (Ploy Printing, the founders, others; + [possible share prices](docs/finance/share-price.md); [shareholding](docs/finance/total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026), 20 October 2026). Chinese boilers, compressor and hydraulics save about 2M THB of that @@ -325,7 +326,15 @@ The detail lives in dedicated documents: same output, payback ~3.8 years on ~217M THB: its extra pays back through what the table leaves out), the five-press table, and the levers and caveats behind the numbers -- [Investor deck](docs/pitch/index.html) (October 2026): the plant in 16 +- [Share price](docs/finance/share-price.md): possible prices for the 40 % + of the company open to co-investors (the lead investor holds at least + 60 %), from market data (Damodaran industry multiples, the Thai risk + premium and bond yield, illiquidity discounts, venture target returns, + Thai listed peers): the founding round at par (~21.7M THB for 40 % at + Plan B's equity floor), a premium only for documented pre-round costs, + and what a share could be worth once the plant runs, with the adverse + case at zero +- [Investor deck](docs/pitch/index.html) (October 2026): the plant in 17 web slides for BOI, bank and institutional readers, proposing Plan B (~215M THB) with Plan A as the comparison, in a light and a dark theme (press T), with a presenter view (press P) and a PDF of each theme @@ -381,7 +390,7 @@ docs/ │ │ bill of materials) │ └── pressing-line.md Press fleet strategy and equipment plan ├── finance/ Project cost overviews, revenue model, -│ construction RFQ, PEA electricity tariff +│ share price, construction RFQ, PEA electricity tariff │ schedule (pea/), biomass fuel market │ reports (biomass/) ├── suppliers/ Supplier contacts, vendor landscape, supplier map, diff --git a/docs/finance/share-price.md b/docs/finance/share-price.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1084d1a --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/finance/share-price.md @@ -0,0 +1,352 @@ +# Share price for the 40 % on offer: market-based ranges (October 2026) + +What a share in the plant company could cost the co-investors who take up +the 40 % beside the lead investor, and what it could be worth once the +plant runs, worked from public market data (dated and linked below) and +the plan's own figures. **This page is not a valuation opinion and not an +offer price.** Every result is an estimate or an illustration, given as a +range or as scenarios; the share price itself is for the shareholders' +agreement (business plan B, section 12.2). Computed 20 October 2026. + +Owning documents: [total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026) +(plans and shareholding), [revenue model](revenue-model.md#operating-pictures-of-plan-a-and-plan-b-october-2026) +(operating pictures), [BOI](../boi.md) (debt-to-equity and incentives), the +[plant and business plan calculator](../fleet-calculator.html) (ten-year +cash view) and the [business plan, Plan B](../business-plan/CNX-Vinyl-Business-Plan-B.pdf) +(section 12.2, ownership and structure). + +## What is decided + +- **Shareholding** (user, 20 October 2026): the lead investor holds **at + least 60 %** of the company that holds the plant and the BOI promotion, + so **at most 40 % is for sale**. Ploy Printing (intended strategic + co-investor, in cash, in kind or both), any founders' shares and any + further co-investor all come out of that 40 % + ([total investment](total-investment.md#two-plans-a-at-180m-thb-and-b-at-215m-thb-october-2026)). +- **Plan B is the proposal**: ~217M THB at the midpoint (201.6M before + the 10M to 20M ramp-up reserve), labelled ~215M; ~156M to 277M from the + low to the high end of every block; no contingency (~30M at 15 % is not + in the price). Plan A (~182M) is the comparison only. +- **BOI**: debt-to-equity no higher than 3:1 for the life of the + privileges, so equity is at least a quarter of the funding: **~54M THB + for Plan B** (217 / 4 = 54.25), and the debt at most ~163M. Vinyl + pressing is expected in incentive **Group B: no corporate income tax + holiday on the core activity**; upgrade measures (automation, R&D) may + add limited exemptions, to be structured by a BOI consultant + ([BOI](../boi.md)). This page uses the 20 % Thai corporate tax rate. +- **Operating picture, Plan B, mature year at 60 % specials** + ([revenue model](revenue-model.md#operating-pictures-of-plan-a-and-plan-b-october-2026)): + revenue 2.28 / 3.65 / 5.41M USD, EBITDA 0.23 / 1.73 / 3.79M USD, + operating profit -0.55 / 1.24 / 3.50M USD (adverse / central / + favourable). The central EBITDA margin (~47 %) is far above the 15 to + 25 % pressing plants earn, so **the adverse column is the honest one**; + the central column is used here only with that caveat. +- **Calculator, preset planB** ([fleet-calculator.html](../fleet-calculator.html), + read 20 October 2026): ten-year cumulative cash -6.56M to +12.92M USD, + cash payback in year ~4.2, IRR ~22 % (22.2 %), NPV ~4.7M USD (4.68M). + Its basis, from the page source: discount rate **10 %** (input + `discRate`, marked estimate), **pre-tax and pre-financing**, no terminal + value, "Corporate income tax and BOI's CIT exemptions ... are not + modelled", ramp 35 / 70 / 90 % in years 1 to 3. +- **FX**: 33 THB/USD (planning rate, total investment). +- **No loan terms are on file.** No interest rate, repayment schedule or + debt-service figure appears on this page. Where equity value needs net + debt, it is shown at the most the 3:1 rule allows (~163M THB, nothing + repaid: the conservative case) and at half repaid (~81M, a sensitivity). + +## Thai company law basics + +From the Civil and Commercial Code (Thai text from the Office of the +Council of State with English translation on +[ThaiLawOnline](https://www.thailawonline.com/thai-civil-code/section-1105/), +cross-checked against the [Siam Legal library](https://library.siam-legal.com/thai-law/civil-and-commercial-code-limited-companies-section-1096-1116/); +checked 20 October 2026; to be confirmed by Thai counsel in phase 0): + +- **Section 1117**: a share may not be less than **5 THB**. The par value + is otherwise free; 100 THB a share is a common choice and is used below + as the worked example (not decided). +- **Section 1105**: shares **may not be issued below par**. Issuing above + par (a share premium) is permitted **only if the memorandum of + association sanctions it**, and the premium is paid with the first + payment. The **first payment must be at least 25 %** of par; the rest is + called later (sections 1120 and 1121: by the directors, at least 21 days' + notice), which fits a round paid in tranches. +- **Section 1108** (amended by Act No. 23 B.E. 2565, in force 7 February + 2023): the statutory meeting ratifies the promoters' contracts and + expenses, fixes any payment to promoters, and fixes the shares to be + allotted as paid up **otherwise than in money**; the service or property + given for them must be described expressly to the meeting. **Section + 1119**: otherwise every share is paid in money. After formation, new + shares paid in kind need a special resolution (**section 1221**). This + is the route for founders' work, the lead investor's pre-round costs and + Ploy Printing's in-kind contribution. +- **Section 1220**: capital is increased by special resolution; + **section 1222**: all new shares must first be offered to existing + shareholders in proportion to their holdings (statutory pre-emption). +- **Section 1194** (amended 2008): a special resolution needs **three + quarters of the votes of the shareholders present and entitled to + vote**. A 60 % holder alone therefore cannot pass one when the 40 % + attends: capital increases, in-kind allotments after formation and + changes to the memorandum or articles need part of the 40 %. + +## Market data + +Checked 20 October 2026. Damodaran files are the January 2026 release +(dated 5 January 2026) under +`https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/`, read with pandas. + +| Item | Value | Source | Data date | +|---|---|---|---| +| EV/EBITDA, Emerging Markets, firms with positive EBITDA | Packaging & Container **13.3x** (341 firms); Entertainment 14.9x; Machinery 25.0x; Chemical (Specialty) 16.0x; Total Market 12.3x | Damodaran, [vebitdaemerg.xls](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/vebitdaemerg.xls) | 5 Jan 2026 | +| EV/EBITDA, Global (cross-check) | 9.6x; 18.7x; 16.9x; 13.1x; 14.7x (same order) | [vebitdaGlobal.xls](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/vebitdaGlobal.xls) | 5 Jan 2026 | +| P/E, aggregate market cap / net income of money-making firms, EM (cross-check) | 18.9x; 18.8x; 35.7x; 24.8x; 16.6x | [peemerg.xls](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/peemerg.xls) | 5 Jan 2026 | +| P/E, same basis, Global | 16.2x; 27.8x; 27.9x; 21.9x; 20.3x | [peGlobal.xls](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/peGlobal.xls) | 5 Jan 2026 | +| Unlevered beta corrected for cash, EM | **0.61**; 1.22; 1.50; 1.11; **0.85** | [betaemerg.xls](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/betaemerg.xls) | 5 Jan 2026 | +| Unlevered beta corrected for cash, Global | 0.58; 0.98; 1.33; 1.04; 0.83 | [betaGlobal.xls](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/betaGlobal.xls) | 5 Jan 2026 | +| Thailand equity risk premium | **6.18 %** = mature market 4.20 % + country risk premium 1.98 % (Moody's Baa1, rating-based default spread 1.27 %); January 2026 file: 6.30 %; CDS-based alternative 5.04 % | Damodaran, [ctrypremJuly26.xlsx](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/ctrypremJuly26.xlsx) | 1 Jul 2026 (spreads corrected 9 Jul) | +| Thai corporate income tax | 20 % | same file, "Country Tax Rates" | 2025 | +| Thai government bond yield, 10 years | **2.30 %** | ThaiBMA, [government bond yield curve](https://www.thaibma.or.th/compositerpt/GovYieldCurve.aspx) | 19 Oct 2026 | +| Illiquidity discount (DLOM) | Restricted-stock studies **25 to 35 %** (Maher 35.4 % mean, 1969 to 1973; Silber 33.75 % median, 1981 to 1988; Johnson 20 %); after controlling for issuer differences Bajaj et al. ~7 %; pre-IPO transactions ~45 % (Emory), 32 to 75 % (Willamette); conventional practice 20 to 30 %; McCord v. Commissioner (2003): court accepted 20 % | Damodaran, [Marketability and Value: Measuring the Illiquidity Discount](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/papers/liquidity.pdf), pp. 17, 28 to 30, 35 to 36 | July 2005 | +| Target returns of venture investors by stage | Start-up 50 to 70 %; **first stage 40 to 60 %**; second stage 35 to 50 %; bridge / IPO 25 to 35 %. Actual returns far lower (20-year early-stage VC 21.4 %, all VC 16.9 %, to 2007), the gap being failure risk | Damodaran, [Valuing Young, Start-up and Growth Companies](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/papers/younggrowth.pdf), Tables 2 and 3, p. 15 (the paper gives no source line for Table 2) | May 2009 | +| SET-listed Thai peers, EV/EBITDA and P/E (secondary market-data site) | SCGP (SCG Packaging) 10.1x, 21.0x, EBITDA margin 14.8 %; TPAC (Thai Plaspac) **4.7x**, 5.5x, margin 18.0 %; SITHAI (Srithai Superware) 3.2x, 7.3x; GRAMMY (GMM Grammy, music and media) 8.6x, 51.9x | stockanalysis.com statistics pages, e.g. [SCGP](https://stockanalysis.com/quote/bkk/SCGP/statistics/), [TPAC](https://stockanalysis.com/quote/bkk/TPAC/statistics/), [SITHAI](https://stockanalysis.com/quote/bkk/SITHAI/statistics/), [GRAMMY](https://stockanalysis.com/quote/bkk/GRAMMY/statistics/) | 19 to 20 Oct 2026 | + +Not used: a bank lending rate. The methods below need none, and none is on +file for this project. + +## Method + +All amounts in M THB unless stated; EBITDA converted at 33 THB/USD. + +- **A. Founding round at par, pari passu.** Everyone pays the same price, + par, in money (or in kind at the same value). Equity = Plan B's 217M x + a quarter (the 3:1 floor), a third, or a half; shares = equity / 100 THB; + the lead investor's 60 % and the 40 % in shares and THB. Plan A's floor + as the one comparison line. +- **B. Development premium.** Work and money spent before the round + (phase 0 at 1.3M to 2.6M THB; design, vendor work, the platform + software) credited as a pre-money value P of 0, 1.3, 2.6, 5, 10 or 20M. + The new cash C is the equity floor (54.25M). Post-money = P + C. With + the share count held at the par case (542,500), the cash pays (P + C) / + 542,500 a share, the developers receive P / that price in shares paid + otherwise than in money, and the 40 % costs 0.4 x (P + C). A pre-money + credit and shares at par for the same amount give the same ownership; + the table shows it as a price because that is how a co-investor sees it. +- **C. Value once the plant runs** (mature year, ~year 4 to 5). + Enterprise value = mature-year EBITDA x EV/EBITDA; equity = EV minus net + debt; minority stake in a private company: less a 20 to 35 % illiquidity + discount (the restricted-stock range and the court's 20 %); per share at + the floor's 542,500 shares. Three multiples: **4.7x**, the median of the + three SET-listed plastics and packaging peers (TPAC, SITHAI, SCGP); + **13.3x**, Emerging Markets Packaging & Container, the closest industry; + **14.9x**, the median of the five EM industries (Machinery's 25.0x + reflects machine builders and is not used on its own). Net debt + 162.75M (all the debt 3:1 allows, nothing repaid, no cash netted) and + 81.4M (half repaid). EBITDA: adverse, central, favourable, plus a + cross-check at an industry-norm margin: 20 % (the middle of the 15 to + 25 % in the revenue model; the SET peers earn 15 to 18 %) of central + revenue, 0.73M USD. +- **D. Price a financial co-investor would pay today (venture-capital + method).** Post-money value today = equity value in year 5 from C, + before the illiquidity discount (the target returns already price + illiquidity and failure), divided by (1 + r) to the fifth. Pre-money = + post-money minus the 54.25M paid in; the justified price per share = + 100 THB x post-money / 54.25M. **Stage: first stage, 40 to 60 %.** The + technology is proven (vendor presses, galvanics and cutting lines in + use elsewhere) and the product is known, so this is not a start-up + inventing a product; but there is no plant, no customer and no + validated price (roadmap item 1 is open), so it is not second stage. + Start-up rates (50 to 70 %) apply if market validation fails to + produce buyer prices; second-stage rates once the plant runs and sells. + Cross-check: a CAPM cost of equity, 2.30 % + beta x 6.18 %, with the EM + unlevered beta relevered at 3:1 and 20 % tax (beta x (1 + 0.8 x 3)): + Packaging & Container 0.61 to **2.08**, cost of equity **15.2 %**; Total + Market 0.85 to **2.88**, **20.1 %**. The 10-year yield contains + Thailand's default spread; netting it out, as Damodaran does, would + lower both by about 1.3 points, so the gross yield is the cautious + choice. +- **E.** The calculator's project return against these rates. + +## Results + +### A. Founding round at par, pari passu (estimate) + +| Case | Equity | Debt at most (3:1) | Shares at 100 THB | Lead investor, 60 % | Co-investors, 40 % | 25 % first payment | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| **Plan B, 3:1 floor** (a quarter of 217M) | **54.25M** | 162.75M | **542,500** | 325,500 shares, **32.6M** | 217,000 shares, **21.7M** | 13.6M | +| Plan B, equity a third | 72.3M | 144.7M | ~723,300 | ~434,000 shares, 43.4M | ~289,300 shares, 28.9M | 18.1M | +| Plan B, equity a half | 108.5M | 108.5M | 1,085,000 | 651,000 shares, 65.1M | 434,000 shares, 43.4M | 27.1M | +| Plan A, 3:1 floor (comparison) | 45.5M | 136.5M | 455,000 | 273,000 shares, 27.3M | 182,000 shares, 18.2M | 11.4M | + +The price is **100 THB a share in every row**; more equity means more +shares, not a different price. At the legal minimum par of 5 THB the +floor would be 10,850,000 shares at 5 THB: the same money for the same +40 %. In practice the registered capital is set to a round figure. The +40 % at the floor, ~21.7M THB, matches the plan's "at most ~22M" (total +investment, business plan 12.2). + +### B. Development premium (illustrative) + +New cash at the floor, 54.25M; share count held at 542,500. + +| Pre-money credited | Post-money | Price the cash pays | Premium over par | Shares to the developers (share of company) | The 40 % costs | +|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| 0 (par) | 54.3M | 100 THB | 0 % | 0 | 21.7M | +| 1.3M (phase 0, low end) | 55.6M | 102 THB | 2.4 % | 12,696 (2.3 %) | 22.2M | +| 2.6M (phase 0, high end) | 56.9M | 105 THB | 4.8 % | 24,811 (4.6 %) | 22.7M | +| 5M | 59.3M | 109 THB | 9.2 % | 45,781 (8.4 %) | 23.7M | +| 10M | 64.3M | 118 THB | 18.4 % | 84,436 (15.6 %) | 25.7M | +| 20M | 74.3M | 137 THB | 36.9 % | 146,128 (26.9 %) | 29.7M | + +A premium must rest on documented costs or assets: invoices for the +phase 0 work, time records at an agreed rate, the platform code and +designs handed to the company. Money already spent on the company's +behalf is most simply counted as capital at par or reimbursed as a +promoter's expense ratified at the statutory meeting (section 1108); +either way it gives the same 2 to 5 % as the phase 0 rows. Credit beyond +documented spending is a valuation of work and needs a basis the other +shareholders accept. Whose credit it is matters for the 60/40: founders' +in-kind shares come out of the 40 % (at 10M they would be 15.6 % of the +company, leaving 24.4 % for Ploy Printing and others), the lead +investor's out of the 60 %. **For a company without a plant or revenue, +the defensible default is par.** + +### C. What a share could be worth once the plant runs (estimate) + +Mature year, net debt **162.75M (nothing repaid)**, 542,500 shares paid at +100 THB. Each cell: equity value before the discount; value per share +after a 35 % to 20 % illiquidity discount; in brackets, the multiple on +the 100 THB paid. + +| Mature-year EBITDA | Thai listed peers, 4.7x | EM packaging, 13.3x | EM industry median, 14.9x | +|---|---|---|---| +| **Adverse**, 0.23M USD (7.6M THB) | -127.2M: debt exceeds value, **share worth ~0** | -61.6M: **~0** | -49.5M: **~0** | +| Industry-norm margin, 20 % of central revenue, 0.73M USD (24.1M THB) | -49.8M: **~0** | 158.4M: 190 to 234 THB (1.9 to 2.3x) | 196.7M: 236 to 290 THB (2.4 to 2.9x) | +| Central, 1.73M USD (57.1M THB) | 105.0M: 126 to 155 THB (1.3 to 1.5x) | 598.3M: 717 to 882 THB (7.2 to 8.8x) | 689.0M: 826 to 1,016 THB (8.3 to 10.2x) | +| Favourable, 3.79M USD (125.1M THB) | 423.8M: 508 to 625 THB (5.1 to 6.3x) | 1,504.4M: 1,803 to 2,219 THB (18 to 22x) | 1,703.3M: 2,041 to 2,512 THB (20 to 25x) | + +Sensitivity, **half the debt repaid** (net debt 81.4M), value per share +after the discount: + +| Mature-year EBITDA | 4.7x | 13.3x | 14.9x | +|---|---|---|---| +| Adverse | ~0 (equity -45.8M) | 24 to 29 THB (0.2 to 0.3x) | 38 to 47 THB (0.4 to 0.5x) | +| Industry-norm margin | 38 to 47 THB (0.4 to 0.5x) | 287 to 354 THB (2.9 to 3.5x) | 333 to 410 THB (3.3 to 4.1x) | +| Central | 223 to 275 THB (2.2 to 2.7x) | 814 to 1,002 THB (8.1 to 10.0x) | 923 to 1,136 THB (9.2 to 11.4x) | +| Favourable | 605 to 745 THB (6.1 to 7.5x) | 1,900 to 2,339 THB (19 to 23x) | 2,138 to 2,632 THB (21 to 26x) | + +Read with the caveats: at the maximum debt the adverse case leaves the +shares worth nothing at any multiple, and so does an industry-norm +margin at Thai listed multiples. Leverage at 3:1 is what makes the +central and favourable rows large: equity is a quarter of the funding, +so every baht of enterprise value above the debt goes to a small equity +base. The choice of multiple moves the result more than anything else: +Thai listed plastics and packaging companies trade at 3 to 10x EBITDA, +the EM industries at 12 to 25x. + +### D. What a financial co-investor would pay today (estimate) + +Year-5 equity value from C (nothing repaid, before the illiquidity +discount), discounted over five years. Price per share justified against +par (100 THB); a price above 100 means the round could carry a premium at +that return, below 100 means par is already rich. + +| Year-5 equity, central case | First stage 40 % | First stage 60 % | CAPM 15.2 % | CAPM 20.1 % | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| 4.7x, 105.0M | post-money 19.5M, **36 THB** | 10.0M, **18 THB** | 51.8M, 96 THB | 42.0M, 77 THB | +| 13.3x, 598.3M | 111.2M, **205 THB** | 57.1M, **105 THB** | 295.4M, 544 THB | 239.2M, 441 THB | +| 14.9x, 689.0M | 128.1M, **236 THB** | 65.7M, **121 THB** | 340.2M, 627 THB | 275.5M, 508 THB | + +Other cases at the first-stage rates (40 % / 60 %): **adverse 0 at every +multiple**; industry-norm margin 0 at 4.7x, 54 / 28 THB at 13.3x, 67 / +35 THB at 14.9x; favourable 145 / 75 THB at 4.7x, 516 / 264 THB at 13.3x, +584 / 299 THB at 14.9x. So a purely financial investor at first-stage +target returns would pay **about par (105 to 236 THB) only if it believes +the central case and an EM-industry multiple**; on the Thai listed +multiple, or at an industry-norm margin, par is already rich (18 to 67 +THB). Pre-money values: negative wherever the price is below 100 (for +example -44.2M at 4.7x and 60 %), +2.8M to +73.9M for the central case at +the EM multiples. + +### E. Cross-check with the calculator + +The calculator's ~22 % IRR and ~4.7M USD NPV at 10 % are a project return +on the whole 6.56M USD, before tax and financing: it clears the +unlevered cost of capital the market data give (2.30 % + 0.61 to 0.85 x +6.18 % = 6.1 to 7.5 %) and the calculator's own 10 %, but sits well below +the 40 to 60 % first-stage targets, so the calculator alone would not +support a premium to a financial investor. Equity funded at 3:1 earns +more than the project when the plant earns more than its loans cost and +loses faster when it does not (the adverse rows in C); with no loan terms +on file, no equity IRR is stated here. + +## What it means + +- **A founding round pari passu at par is the defensible default.** Until + the plant exists, a share is worth the cash behind it. At par (100 THB) + the 40 % costs ~21.7M THB at the 3:1 equity floor, ~28.9M at a third and + ~43.4M at a half, for 217,000, ~289,300 or 434,000 shares; the lead + investor's 60 % costs one and a half times as much at the same price. + The memorandum needs no premium clause for this. +- **A development premium only for documented costs or assets.** Phase 0 + money (1.3M to 2.6M THB) is worth 2 to 5 % of the floor round and is + most simply counted as capital at par. Anything above documented + spending is a valuation of work; in-kind shares need their description + before the statutory meeting (section 1108) or a special resolution + later (section 1221), and a premium needs the memorandum's sanction + (section 1105). +- **Later entrants pay a market-based price.** Once the plant runs and + its accounts show the real EBITDA, the market multiples put a share + anywhere from nothing to many times par, so shares issued after the + founding round should be priced from results (C and D with actual + figures), not at par. Statutory pre-emption (section 1222) lets the + founding shareholders keep their share of such a round. +- **The adverse case shows why co-investors need protection.** At the + maximum debt the 3:1 rule allows, the adverse case and an + industry-norm margin at Thai listed multiples leave the shares worth + nothing, while the lead investor controls 60 % of the votes. Items for + the shareholders' agreement: keep statutory pre-emption and do not + waive it in the articles; information rights (monthly management + accounts, the BOI progress and annual reports, the lender's reports + once loans exist); a board seat or observer for the 40 %; reserved + matters; and keep the three-quarters threshold for special resolutions + (section 1194), which already gives the 40 % a say on capital increases, + in-kind allotments and changes to the memorandum. Ploy Printing as a + supplier and the founders as operators have reasons to hold at par that + a purely financial investor does not (D). + +## Caveats + +- **Not a valuation opinion, not an offer price.** Ranges and scenarios + from public data and the plan's estimates, for discussion. No share + price is agreed; it goes into the shareholders' agreement. +- **No loan terms are on file.** Net debt is the most the 3:1 rule allows + and one sensitivity; no interest rate, schedule or debt-service figure + is assumed. Interest and repayment would change the year-5 net debt + either way. +- **The extra cost of specials is not modelled** in the revenue model's + direct cost, so every EBITDA here is an upper bound until compound + quotes exist. +- **Central is optimistic, adverse is honest.** The central EBITDA margin + (~47 %) is far above the 15 to 25 % pressing plants earn and the 15 to + 18 % of the SET peers; the industry-norm row shows the difference. +- **Contingency is not in the price.** At 15 % (~30M THB) a cost overrun + funded by equity at par adds shares at 100 THB; funded by debt, it + raises net debt and lowers every value in C and D. +- **Market multiples are for listed companies**, most of them far larger + than this plant; a small private company would usually be priced below + them (estimate). The illiquidity discount covers + part of that, not all. Damodaran's Emerging Markets set (27,360 firms) + spans many countries and is not a Thai benchmark; the Thai listed peers + are only three plastics and packaging companies, read from a secondary + market-data site. +- **Taxes and BOI**: EV/EBITDA is a pre-tax measure; the calculator is + pre-tax and pre-financing. The tax at 20 % in the CAPM line assumes no + CIT holiday on the core activity (Group B, [BOI](../boi.md)); any + upgrade-measure exemption would raise after-tax values somewhat. +- **Timing**: year 5 after the round is the plant's third or fourth year + of sales (the build takes ~1.5 to 2 years), so a mature-year EBITDA by + then is itself optimistic; each extra year of delay divides D's values + by a further 1.4 to 1.6 at the first-stage rates. +- **Law**: the Code summaries are from English translations checked + against the Thai text online; Thai counsel confirms them in phase 0, + along with how BOI counts in-kind capital for the 3:1 ratio. diff --git a/docs/finance/total-investment.md b/docs/finance/total-investment.md index bba1a04..dbfb054 100644 --- a/docs/finance/total-investment.md +++ b/docs/finance/total-investment.md @@ -150,7 +150,8 @@ of it were paid in at one share price, the main investor's 60 % would be at least ~32M THB and the 40 % at most ~22M THB (arithmetic only: the share price, the valuation, the total equity above the floor and any founders' or in-kind shares are not agreed). The terms go into the -shareholders' agreement (business plan section 12.2). +shareholders' agreement (business plan section 12.2). Possible share +prices for the 40 % from market data: [share price](share-price.md). Decided (user, October 2026): the business plan comes in **two versions** for the investor, built from the same documents: diff --git a/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck-light.pdf b/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck-light.pdf index 8253cee..eb1e324 100644 Binary files a/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck-light.pdf and b/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck-light.pdf differ diff --git a/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck.pdf b/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck.pdf index ece477c..1e099ed 100644 Binary files a/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck.pdf and b/docs/pitch/CNX-Vinyl-Investor-Deck.pdf differ diff --git a/docs/pitch/index.html b/docs/pitch/index.html index a0ec7c1..3725307 100644 --- a/docs/pitch/index.html +++ b/docs/pitch/index.html @@ -329,8 +329,21 @@ svg.chart .z{stroke:var(--zero);stroke-width:1} .cmp td.n:nth-child(2),.kp td.n:nth-child(2){color:var(--tx);font-weight:600} .cmp td.n:nth-child(3),.kp td.n:nth-child(3){color:var(--mu)} +/* ---------- share price (after BOI and financing) ---------- */ +.s11b .bd{grid-template-columns:800px 1fr;gap:72px;margin-top:30px} +.sp td{font-size:20px;padding:12px 12px} +.sp th{padding:0 12px 8px} +.sp td:first-child{color:var(--tx)} +.s11b .nt{font-size:16px;line-height:1.45;color:var(--mu);margin-top:12px} +.dev{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:18px} +.dev .card{padding:18px 22px} +.dev .v{font-family:var(--serif);font-size:40px;line-height:1.16;color:var(--ac);white-space:nowrap;padding-bottom:.1em} +.dev .l{font-size:16.5px;line-height:1.42;color:var(--tx2);margin-top:6px} +.vcl{margin-top:26px;font-size:19px;line-height:1.42;color:var(--tx2);padding:14px 20px;border-left:3px solid var(--bf);background:var(--bs);border-radius:0 10px 10px 0} +.vcl b{color:var(--tx);font-weight:600} + /* Palatino's descent runs below the line box: keep it inside the element */ -h1,h2,.stat .v,.s1 .keys .v,.big3 .v,.tot2 .v,.fin .need .v,.ask .v,.kp4 .v,.chain .nm,.flow .fs .nm,.ppl .nm,.pill4 .h,.feat .h,.unl .h{padding-bottom:.1em} +h1,h2,.stat .v,.s1 .keys .v,.big3 .v,.tot2 .v,.fin .need .v,.ask .v,.kp4 .v,.dev .v,.chain .nm,.flow .fs .nm,.ppl .nm,.pill4 .h,.feat .h,.unl .h{padding-bottom:.1em} h1{padding-bottom:.14em} /* screenshots of the web tools: a dark and a light version, swapped with the theme */ @@ -593,7 +606,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}

Source: business plan B, sections 6.1 and 6.2; site-candidates.md; scale.md; crane-workshop-tours.md; Payap rezoning: land-listings/payap/rezoning-2026-10-20.md (Town Planning Act B.E. 2562, section 35; the planning department's amendment work plan, ~70 to 82 weeks). Render: fleet-calculator.html, Plan B preset (figure 9). The 60 × 25 m hall is the Mueang Chi design; the layout is fixed once a plot passes zoning and lease-ability.

- + @@ -796,7 +809,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}
Collateral
The machinery and equipment, in Plan B including the owned PV array and battery. The building only if the lease grants its ownership and the right to mortgage it. No land collateral: the site is a long lease of raw land.
-
Use of funds
Equipment (presses, metal path, metrology, lab) ~85M THB; building, crane, workshop and corridor ~40M; utilities ~35M; solar and battery ~15M; software, cassette and CD-R, freight, working capital and phase 0 ~28M (block midpoints est.), plus the reserve, in tranches (slide 16).
+
Use of funds
Equipment (presses, metal path, metrology, lab) ~85M THB; building, crane, workshop and corridor ~40M; utilities ~35M; solar and battery ~15M; software, cassette and CD-R, freight, working capital and phase 0 ~28M (block midpoints est.), plus the reserve, in tranches (slide 17).

Financing structure to be agreed: no loan terms, interest rate or debt-service figures are on file.

@@ -806,6 +819,40 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none} + +
+
Share price: what the 40 % could cost
+

At par, the 40 % costs ~21.7M THB; what it is worth later is a range

+
+
+

Founding round at par, pari passu: Plan B at the 3:1 equity floor

+ + + + + +
100 THB a share exampleSharesTHB
The lead investor, at least 60 %325,50032.6M
Co-investors, at most 40 %217,00021.7M
Equity at the floor: a quarter of ~217M542,50054.25M
+

With a third or half of the funding as equity the price stays 100 THB and the 40 % costs ~28.9M or ~43.4M. Thai law: no shares below par, par at least 5 THB, a premium only if the memorandum allows it.

+

Development premium, only for documented costs

+
+
105 THB +5 %
phase 0 spending, 2.6M THB, credited: the 40 % costs 22.7M
+
118 THB +18 %
10M THB credited for pre-round work: the 40 % costs 25.7M
+
+

A financial co-investor today (venture-capital method, first-stage target return 40 to 60 %, central case in year 5): 18 to 236 THB a share depending on the multiple; nothing in the adverse case.

+
+
+

Value of one 100 THB share once the plant runs est.

+
Range across market multiples, after the illiquidity discountPar paid
+ +

EV/EBITDA 4.7x (Thai listed plastics and packaging) to 14.9x (emerging-market industries), less a 20 to 35 % discount for a private minority stake; net debt the most 3:1 allows, ~163M THB; 542,500 shares.

+

Ranges, not a valuation or an offer price. The adverse case is the honest one: the central margin (~47 %) is far above the 15 to 25 % plants earn. No loan terms are on file; co-investors need pre-emption and information rights.

+
+
+

Source: share-price.md (October 2026); total-investment.md "Two plans"; revenue-model.md "Operating pictures"; Damodaran industry EV/EBITDA and betas (January 2026), country risk premiums (July 2026), illiquidity discount (2005), venture target returns (2009); ThaiBMA 10-year yield 2.30 % (19 October 2026); SET peers via stockanalysis.com (20 October 2026); Civil and Commercial Code ss. 1105, 1117, 1222. Estimates.

+ + +
+
Schedule
@@ -906,7 +953,7 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}

Now: phase 0

1.3M to 2.6M THB

~USD 40k to 80k over 3 to 6 months, part of the plan price: the BOI consultant, Thai counsel for the lease, zoning and the shareholders' agreement, a soil test, the quotes.

-

On offer to co-investors

Up to 40 %

of the company, beside the lead investor's at least 60 %: Ploy Printing, the founders, others. Share price and valuation not agreed; terms in the shareholders' agreement.

+

On offer to co-investors

Up to 40 %

of the company, beside the lead investor's at least 60 %: Ploy Printing, the founders, others. Share price not agreed: par is the default, ranges on slide 13; terms in the shareholders' agreement.

Then Plan B at ~215M THB in tranches: share of the investment before the reserve est.

@@ -944,14 +991,14 @@ body.pvmode .stage,body.pvmode .ctl{display:none}

Source: business plan B, sections 8.3, 12.2, 14.1 and 14.2; total-investment.md "Two plans" (shareholding); roadmap.md phases 0 to 2. Tranche amounts are the shares applied to Plan B's ~201.6M THB before the reserve (arithmetic). Gates before any order: market validation, the BOI certificate, and land (zoning, lease terms, soil).

CNX Vinyl · Investment proposal, Plan B (~215M THB) · Draft for discussion, October 2026
- +