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grabowski 7b31d4d0dd
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feat: "Is the model getting better?" - live verification per model version
src/ml/skill.py joins forecast_history (what each deployed version
predicted for the 24 h peak, hourly) to water_measurements (what the
river did) and reports per version: verified hours, peak MAE, bias, the
persistence baseline (peak = current level), skill = 1 - MAE/persistence,
and the same MAE restricted to observed peaks >= 2 m. Only forecasts
whose window has elapsed with >= 75 % of hours observed count; a
version needs 24 verified hours before it is compared.

GET /api/forecast/skill?station_code=P.1&horizon=24 returns it (SWR
cached, 15 min). The dashboard's forecast card gains a panel with a
one-line verdict (current vs previous version), the per-version table,
and a caveat that quiet weeks measure quiet-river accuracy only: the
model is judged on flood-onset lead, which the backtests cover. EN + TH.

On today's production data: hgb-v3+28b62e5 (369 h, Aug 13 - Sep 1)
MAE 15.2 cm, skill -0.05; hgb-v2+f6570ac (224 h, Sep 1 - 11) MAE
12.3 cm, skill 0.36 - the "worse" v2 model scores better on a quieter
fortnight, which is exactly why the panel shows the >= 2 m column and
the caveat. Tests: 3, sqlite, synthetic.

scripts/dev_proxy.py: DEV_PROXY_LOCAL lets a not-yet-deployed endpoint be
answered from a local JSON file while everything else goes to prod.
2026-09-11 23:44:44 +02:00

59 lines
2.4 KiB
Python

"""Serve the working-copy dashboard locally with API calls proxied to the
live server, so browser-side changes can be checked against real data
before deploy. Usage: python scripts/dev_proxy.py [port]"""
import http.server
import os
import sys
import urllib.request
from pathlib import Path
UPSTREAM = "https://water.buildfor.life"
STATIC = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "src" / "static"
class Handler(http.server.BaseHTTPRequestHandler):
def do_GET(self):
if self.path == "/" or self.path.startswith("/?"):
body = (STATIC / "dashboard.html").read_bytes()
self._send(200, "text/html; charset=utf-8", body)
return
# Local overrides for endpoints not yet deployed: DEV_PROXY_LOCAL=/api/x=file.json,...
for pair in filter(None, os.environ.get("DEV_PROXY_LOCAL", "").split(",")):
prefix, file = pair.split("=", 1)
if self.path.split("?")[0] == prefix:
self._send(200, "application/json", Path(file).read_bytes())
return
if self.path.startswith("/static/"):
f = STATIC / self.path[len("/static/"):].split("?")[0]
if f.is_file():
ctype = "application/json" if f.suffix in (".json", ".geojson") else "application/octet-stream"
self._send(200, ctype, f.read_bytes())
return
try:
req = urllib.request.Request(
UPSTREAM + self.path,
headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0 (dev_proxy; +https://buildfor.life)", "Accept": "application/json"},
)
with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=60) as r:
self._send(r.status, r.headers.get("Content-Type", "application/json"), r.read())
except urllib.error.HTTPError as e:
self._send(e.code, "application/json", e.read())
def _send(self, code, ctype, body):
self.send_response(code)
self.send_header("Content-Type", ctype)
self.send_header("Content-Length", str(len(body)))
self.send_header("Cache-Control", "no-store")
self.end_headers()
self.wfile.write(body)
def log_message(self, *a):
pass
if __name__ == "__main__":
port = int(sys.argv[1]) if len(sys.argv) > 1 else 8765
print(f"http://localhost:{port}/ (API -> {UPSTREAM})")
http.server.ThreadingHTTPServer(("127.0.0.1", port), Handler).serve_forever()