5 Commits

Include renames

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
grabowski	21e9d2e114	feat: hgb-v2 — regression heads predict rise, recovering flood warning lead ... Rolling-origin evaluation (5 monsoon folds x 4 variants, P.1 + P.103; results in models/eval_variants.json) showed the absolute-level target alerting AT the crossing on essentially every event, while the rise target (future max - current level, level added back at serving) gives +6h on the hard 2024 crossings, +45h in 2025, fewer false alarms than weighted/quantile variants, and ~11% better MAE. Weighted and quantile variants rejected: more false alarms, no Brier-score calibration gain. Ported to production: train.py fits rise in both eval and refit passes (sigma/metrics computed in absolute space), bundles stamped hgb-v2 with regression_target='rise', predict.py adds the level back for v2 and stays compatible with v1 bundles, backtest_render.py mirrors the same math. Regenerated backtest charts: 2024 first alert 11:00 24 Sep (6h BEFORE the 17:00 crossing, was 18h after), 2025 alert 45h ahead, and the record-peak underprediction is gone (rise models can exceed the training max). The >=12h acceptance gate still fails honestly at +6h — closing that needs rainfall inputs. New P.1 MAE 5.0/7.2/9.4 cm at 6/12/24h; docs updated throughout.	2026-08-12 15:43:29 +07:00
grabowski	0005f7dce1	feat: codified backtests, honest docs, belt-and-braces serving, perf fixes ... Retrained on the gap-filled DB (592k -> 976k rows) and re-examined the flood backtests, now reproducible via scripts/backtest_render.py (renders the three docs/img charts and gates on a >=12h 2024 first-alert lead — currently failing by design and documented as such). Findings, all documented in FLOOD_FORECASTING.md: the true 2024 crossing was 24 Sep 17:00 (8h earlier than recorded; confirmed against the independent HII sensor), the historical 24h-warning claim was partly a missing-data artifact, and retrained warn classifiers collapse on the filled grid (P.1 24h PR-AUC 0.900 -> 0.288) while regression MAE improves (11.3 -> 10.5 cm). Serving therefore becomes max(classifier, sigmoid(regression)) so alerting is never worse than the regression path; metrics table, head-gating tiers, honest-limits and runbook expectations all updated to the current model (hgb-v1+d2d0e65). Perf, from Locust load testing (scripts/locustfile.py + load_test.py): single-flight lock around /forecast inference (concurrent cache misses previously each ran ~18s inference and starved the shared thread pool; 200-user run after: 105 rps, 0.01% errors), and /measurements/latest + /health moved off the event loop (synchronous DB/network calls in async handlers were stalling every request under load).	2026-08-12 10:46:00 +07:00
grabowski	27fa292e09	docs: September 2025 flood render - deployed config, 24 h warning, peak within 7 cm ... Hour-by-hour chart of the 25-28 Sep 2025 event as forecast by the exact deployed configuration (trained through 2024, event unseen): first alert 26 Sep 18:00, flooding began 27 Sep 18:00 (24 h lead), predicted peak 4.00 m vs actual 3.93 m. The near-miss 3.51 m crest on 26 Sep correctly never alerted.	2026-08-10 18:35:55 +07:00
grabowski	f0183faa62	feat: discharge-driven river animation speed, replay stat tiles, hourly doc render ... - river dash animation now flows at a speed continuously derived from each segment's discharge (period 260/(Q+45) s, clamped 0.5-5.5 s) via inline per-path animation-duration, so it updates live and per-frame during the replay (CSS speed classes removed - setStyle cannot change classes) - the replay drives the Combined discharge and Strongest flow stat tiles each frame (marked '2024 replay'), restored on finish - docs: hour-by-hour detection detail render (22-28 Sep 2024) showing the model alert at 24 Sep 01:00, flooding at 25 Sep 01:00, and the 24 h warning between them; embedded with commentary - Matrix alerts now link to https://water.buildfor.life/ (override via ALERT_DASHBOARD_URL), replacing the Grafana public dashboard link	2026-08-10 18:29:01 +07:00
grabowski	6112c681a7	docs: render of actual vs predicted through the 2024 flood; adaptive replay speed ... docs/img/backtest-2024-p1.png: observed P.1 level vs the 24h-ahead predicted peak issued at each hour by a model trained only on pre-flood data, with the warning-probability panel below (first alert 24 Sep 01:00, 24 h before flooding began). Embedded in FLOOD_FORECASTING.md's headline-validation section with an honest reading, including the ~0.4 m peak under-prediction. Replay pacing is now adaptive: 4 h/frame through quiet days, 2 h when risk is elevated, 1 h (hour-by-hour) while the model is alerting or the river is near/above flood stage - so viewers can watch the detection sequence unfold.	2026-08-10 18:10:48 +07:00