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grabowski 0005f7dce1 feat: codified backtests, honest docs, belt-and-braces serving, perf fixes
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Retrained on the gap-filled DB (592k -> 976k rows) and re-examined the
flood backtests, now reproducible via scripts/backtest_render.py (renders
the three docs/img charts and gates on a >=12h 2024 first-alert lead —
currently failing by design and documented as such).

Findings, all documented in FLOOD_FORECASTING.md: the true 2024 crossing
was 24 Sep 17:00 (8h earlier than recorded; confirmed against the
independent HII sensor), the historical 24h-warning claim was partly a
missing-data artifact, and retrained warn classifiers collapse on the
filled grid (P.1 24h PR-AUC 0.900 -> 0.288) while regression MAE improves
(11.3 -> 10.5 cm). Serving therefore becomes max(classifier,
sigmoid(regression)) so alerting is never worse than the regression path;
metrics table, head-gating tiers, honest-limits and runbook expectations
all updated to the current model (hgb-v1+d2d0e65).

Perf, from Locust load testing (scripts/locustfile.py + load_test.py):
single-flight lock around /forecast inference (concurrent cache misses
previously each ran ~18s inference and starved the shared thread pool;
200-user run after: 105 rps, 0.01% errors), and /measurements/latest +
/health moved off the event loop (synchronous DB/network calls in async
handlers were stalling every request under load).
2026-08-12 10:46:00 +07:00
grabowski f0183faa62 feat: discharge-driven river animation speed, replay stat tiles, hourly doc render
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- river dash animation now flows at a speed continuously derived from
  each segment's discharge (period 260/(Q+45) s, clamped 0.5-5.5 s) via
  inline per-path animation-duration, so it updates live and per-frame
  during the replay (CSS speed classes removed - setStyle cannot change
  classes)
- the replay drives the Combined discharge and Strongest flow stat
  tiles each frame (marked '2024 replay'), restored on finish
- docs: hour-by-hour detection detail render (22-28 Sep 2024) showing
  the model alert at 24 Sep 01:00, flooding at 25 Sep 01:00, and the
  24 h warning between them; embedded with commentary
- Matrix alerts now link to https://water.buildfor.life/ (override via
  ALERT_DASHBOARD_URL), replacing the Grafana public dashboard link
2026-08-10 18:29:01 +07:00