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0005f7dce1 |
feat: codified backtests, honest docs, belt-and-braces serving, perf fixes
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Retrained on the gap-filled DB (592k -> 976k rows) and re-examined the flood backtests, now reproducible via scripts/backtest_render.py (renders the three docs/img charts and gates on a >=12h 2024 first-alert lead — currently failing by design and documented as such). Findings, all documented in FLOOD_FORECASTING.md: the true 2024 crossing was 24 Sep 17:00 (8h earlier than recorded; confirmed against the independent HII sensor), the historical 24h-warning claim was partly a missing-data artifact, and retrained warn classifiers collapse on the filled grid (P.1 24h PR-AUC 0.900 -> 0.288) while regression MAE improves (11.3 -> 10.5 cm). Serving therefore becomes max(classifier, sigmoid(regression)) so alerting is never worse than the regression path; metrics table, head-gating tiers, honest-limits and runbook expectations all updated to the current model (hgb-v1+d2d0e65). Perf, from Locust load testing (scripts/locustfile.py + load_test.py): single-flight lock around /forecast inference (concurrent cache misses previously each ran ~18s inference and starved the shared thread pool; 200-user run after: 105 rps, 0.01% errors), and /measurements/latest + /health moved off the event loop (synchronous DB/network calls in async handlers were stalling every request under load). |
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f0183faa62 |
feat: discharge-driven river animation speed, replay stat tiles, hourly doc render
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- river dash animation now flows at a speed continuously derived from each segment's discharge (period 260/(Q+45) s, clamped 0.5-5.5 s) via inline per-path animation-duration, so it updates live and per-frame during the replay (CSS speed classes removed - setStyle cannot change classes) - the replay drives the Combined discharge and Strongest flow stat tiles each frame (marked '2024 replay'), restored on finish - docs: hour-by-hour detection detail render (22-28 Sep 2024) showing the model alert at 24 Sep 01:00, flooding at 25 Sep 01:00, and the 24 h warning between them; embedded with commentary - Matrix alerts now link to https://water.buildfor.life/ (override via ALERT_DASHBOARD_URL), replacing the Grafana public dashboard link |