The Test Suite job failed on every push since the black check was added
because the tree had never been formatted, and pre-commit said 120
columns while CI ran black's default 88. pyproject.toml now carries
[tool.black] / [tool.isort] (88, black profile) as the single source;
pre-commit reads it; `make format` applied it (13 files, whitespace only,
146 insertions / 128 deletions, tests unchanged at 146 passed).
ci.yml: lint (black, isort, flake8 hard errors) + pytest. The Docker
registry push, VictoriaMetrics integration test, staging/production
deploy and Apache-Bench jobs were template scaffolding for hosts and
registries that do not exist; production is a systemd unit updated by
git pull. Removed rather than left permanently skipped.
docs.yml: the "Check markdown links" step curl'd every URL in every .md
and failed on localhost examples and the Tailscale IP, and the Sphinx
jobs built artifacts nobody read. Replaced by two checks that mean
something: relative links/images in README, CONTRIBUTING and docs/
resolve inside the repo, and the FastAPI OpenAPI schema exports with
the documented endpoints present (uploaded as an artifact).
src/ml/dam.py loads rid_reservoir_daily into a leakage-safe hourly frame
(daily row visible from 07:00 its own date, ffill capped at 48 h) and is
plumbed through features/train/predict/evaluate exactly like rain, gated
to the six mainstem stations below the Mae Ngat confluence.
The experiment concludes as a documented NEGATIVE result: on the 2024
record-flood backtest every dam-feature subset costs 1-3 h of first-alert
lead (13h -> 10-12h) for <=3 cm of peak-error gain, because the daily RID
report lags up to 31 h and describes yesterday's benign absorbing
reservoir during fast onset. Features therefore default OFF (--dam
opt-in on the training and backtest CLIs; rise_rain_dam/rise_dam harness
variants, excluded from the default variant set). The ablation also
isolated the HII gap-fill as lead-neutral: the acceptance gate holds at
13 h with fill enabled, and docs/img charts are regenerated with the
shipping configuration. Full table in docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md §5.
Review-swarm fixes: evaluate.py skips variants whose feature family is
absent instead of crashing the run; --dam forwards --db-url and warns
loudly when no dam history loads; an empty DB result can no longer wipe
a good dam cache; run-level metrics version claims v4 only when a dam
station is actually in the set.
grabowski