The 2024 snapshot now carries a model track: p_warning and predicted
24 h peak from HGB heads trained ONLY on pre-flood data (an honest
backtest, cutoff 2024-08-31), plus its calibration sigma. During replay:
- the map clock shows the system's state at each moment: 'model: no
flood expected' -> 'elevated risk' -> amber 'MODEL ALERT - flooding
within 24 h likely (predicted peak X m)' -> red 'FLOODING' once the
river actually crosses stage 1. First alert fires 24 Sep 01:00, a
full day before the water crossed the flood line on 25 Sep.
- the flood-risk outlook stage chips re-render each frame from the
historic model prediction (sigmoid over the stage levels), so the
whole outlook panel time-travels with the map.
The replay now drives the entire map from a 120 kB all-station snapshot
(static/flood-2024-all.json: 649 hourly frames x 16 stations of level +
discharge, forward-filled on an aligned grid):
- station markers recolor/resize per frame from historic discharge
- river segments restyle per frame (color/width from the same
nearest-gauge grading as live mode)
- flood zones flood/recede from P.1's historic level
- a large clock overlay on the map shows replay date/time, P.1 level
and total basin flow
- the LIVE DATA pill switches to an amber '2024 REPLAY' (or
'SIMULATION' for the demo_level/demo_rise hooks) and back on finish
- replay end or stop restores the live view via a full dashboard reload
Replaces the P.1-only snapshot (flood-2024-p1.json removed).
grabowski