4358d52d5583b9af3dcb323dd41b77367c2428cc
3
Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 grabowski
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4358d52d55 |
feat: ML flood-event forecasting from 8 years of gauge history
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Add src/ml/ package predicting, per station and per 6/12/24 h horizon, the probability of exceeding warning (3.0 m) and danger (4.5 m) levels plus expected peak level, trained on the 592k-row PostgreSQL history: - features.py: hourly grid with coverage gating and no future leakage; upstream stations enter at empirically measured travel-time lags (P.20 +17h ... P.103 +1h vs P.1); hour-of-day deliberately excluded (it encodes the scrape schedule, not hydrology) - train.py: HistGradientBoosting regression + warn/danger classifier heads per station x horizon, >=30-positives gate with calibrated sigmoid-on-regression fallback, strict temporal splits, per-event lead-time evaluation; guards against sklearn 1.9.0 crash on degenerate feature columns - predict.py: bundle loading with feature-name checks, heuristic fallback tier, get_latest_forecasts() for the API; raises when no models are trained so the endpoint 503s instead of serving persistence output as forecasts - data.py: Postgres-first loader (FLOOD_ML_DB_URL override), HTTP API fallback (flagged: that path backfills synthetic discharge), csv.gz cache - /forecast endpoint (15-min TTL cache) + dashboard flood-risk panel (hidden until models exist) - docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md: full system doc with measured deployment numbers (~335 MB RSS, CPU negligible, ~6 min full retrain) and retraining policy Validation: out-of-sample backtest of the record 2024 flood season (train <= Aug 2024) alerted 24-48 h ahead of the Oct 5 peak; 2025-26 test split: P.1 6h PR-AUC 0.974, recall 98.3% at 1% false-alarm rate. Also: fix P.81 station coordinates (was Ban Pong/Ratchaburi, 493 km out of basin; now 18.6936 N 99.0819 E per RID station page), pin scikit-learn==1.9.0 and numpy<2, gitignore model artifacts (~100 MB, train on the server via scripts/train_flood_model.py). |
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 grabowskiandClaude
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6a76a88f32 |
Update pyproject.toml to use dependency-groups instead of tool.uv.dev-dependencies
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- Replaced deprecated tool.uv.dev-dependencies with dependency-groups.dev - Follows new uv standard for dependency group declaration Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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grabowskiandClaude
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6c7c128b4d |
Major refactor: Migrate to uv, add PostgreSQL support, and comprehensive tooling
- **Migration to uv package manager**: Replace pip/requirements with modern pyproject.toml - Add pyproject.toml with complete dependency management - Update all scripts and Makefile to use uv commands - Maintain backward compatibility with existing workflows - **PostgreSQL integration and migration tools**: - Enhanced config.py with automatic password URL encoding - Complete PostgreSQL setup scripts and documentation - High-performance SQLite to PostgreSQL migration tool (91x speed improvement) - Support for both connection strings and individual components - **Executable distribution system**: - PyInstaller integration for standalone .exe creation - Automated build scripts with batch file generation - Complete packaging system for end-user distribution - **Enhanced data management**: - Fix --fill-gaps command with proper method implementation - Add gap detection and historical data backfill capabilities - Implement data update functionality for existing records - Add comprehensive database adapter methods - **Developer experience improvements**: - Password encoding tools for special characters - Interactive setup wizards for PostgreSQL configuration - Comprehensive documentation and migration guides - Automated testing and validation tools 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.ai/code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> |