2 Commits

Include renames

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
grabowski	21e9d2e114	feat: hgb-v2 — regression heads predict rise, recovering flood warning lead ... Rolling-origin evaluation (5 monsoon folds x 4 variants, P.1 + P.103; results in models/eval_variants.json) showed the absolute-level target alerting AT the crossing on essentially every event, while the rise target (future max - current level, level added back at serving) gives +6h on the hard 2024 crossings, +45h in 2025, fewer false alarms than weighted/quantile variants, and ~11% better MAE. Weighted and quantile variants rejected: more false alarms, no Brier-score calibration gain. Ported to production: train.py fits rise in both eval and refit passes (sigma/metrics computed in absolute space), bundles stamped hgb-v2 with regression_target='rise', predict.py adds the level back for v2 and stays compatible with v1 bundles, backtest_render.py mirrors the same math. Regenerated backtest charts: 2024 first alert 11:00 24 Sep (6h BEFORE the 17:00 crossing, was 18h after), 2025 alert 45h ahead, and the record-peak underprediction is gone (rise models can exceed the training max). The >=12h acceptance gate still fails honestly at +6h — closing that needs rainfall inputs. New P.1 MAE 5.0/7.2/9.4 cm at 6/12/24h; docs updated throughout.	2026-08-12 15:43:29 +07:00
grabowski	4358d52d55	feat: ML flood-event forecasting from 8 years of gauge history ... Add src/ml/ package predicting, per station and per 6/12/24 h horizon, the probability of exceeding warning (3.0 m) and danger (4.5 m) levels plus expected peak level, trained on the 592k-row PostgreSQL history: - features.py: hourly grid with coverage gating and no future leakage; upstream stations enter at empirically measured travel-time lags (P.20 +17h ... P.103 +1h vs P.1); hour-of-day deliberately excluded (it encodes the scrape schedule, not hydrology) - train.py: HistGradientBoosting regression + warn/danger classifier heads per station x horizon, >=30-positives gate with calibrated sigmoid-on-regression fallback, strict temporal splits, per-event lead-time evaluation; guards against sklearn 1.9.0 crash on degenerate feature columns - predict.py: bundle loading with feature-name checks, heuristic fallback tier, get_latest_forecasts() for the API; raises when no models are trained so the endpoint 503s instead of serving persistence output as forecasts - data.py: Postgres-first loader (FLOOD_ML_DB_URL override), HTTP API fallback (flagged: that path backfills synthetic discharge), csv.gz cache - /forecast endpoint (15-min TTL cache) + dashboard flood-risk panel (hidden until models exist) - docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md: full system doc with measured deployment numbers (~335 MB RSS, CPU negligible, ~6 min full retrain) and retraining policy Validation: out-of-sample backtest of the record 2024 flood season (train <= Aug 2024) alerted 24-48 h ahead of the Oct 5 peak; 2025-26 test split: P.1 6h PR-AUC 0.974, recall 98.3% at 1% false-alarm rate. Also: fix P.81 station coordinates (was Ban Pong/Ratchaburi, 493 km out of basin; now 18.6936 N 99.0819 E per RID station page), pin scikit-learn==1.9.0 and numpy<2, gitignore model artifacts (~100 MB, train on the server via scripts/train_flood_model.py).	2026-08-10 12:49:47 +07:00