Poll the open api-v3.thaiwater.net public endpoints (rain_24h,
waterlevel_load), filter to the Ping basin, and persist to new
hii_rain_stations/hii_rainfall and hii_wl_stations/hii_waterlevel tables
(auto-created; sqlite/postgresql/mysql). Water levels stay in their own
tables since HII reports m MSL from a different station set; rid_code
maps mirrors like ridhydro_P.1 to P.1 and offset_msl converts MSL to
gauge datum. Runs every scraping cycle in web-api and continuous modes
(hourly cadence even during 1-minute RID retry), one-shot via
--collect-hii; docs/DATA_SOURCES.md catalogs all probed endpoints.
New SQLAdapter.get_database_stats() aggregates totals, station count,
date range, and hourly-slot coverage in one query per dialect. The
endpoint follows the existing 503-guard/to_thread/TTL-cache pattern;
the dashboard gains a five-tile stats strip on the existing refresh
cadence. Coverage denominator is hour-truncated so off-hour endpoints
cannot push it past 100%; MySQL slot expression avoids % characters
that would break under pyformat bind interpolation.
Gap detection is now hour-granular: days with partial data (missing
hourly slots) are re-fetched, not just days with no rows at all. The
API's hour-24-is-next-midnight quirk is handled by re-fetching day D-1
when day D is missing its 00:00 slot. SQL adapters gain single-query
range and recorded-hours lookups; non-SQL backends fall back to the
old day-granular check.
Security: POST/PUT/DELETE /stations, POST /scrape/trigger and GET
/config now require an X-API-Key header matching ADMIN_API_KEY.
Secure by default - with no key configured those endpoints return 503
instead of being open. Comparison via secrets.compare_digest. Dashboard
and read endpoints stay public.
Data: the validator rejected any measurement whose discharge_percent
exceeded 200 - which silently deleted the Oct 2024 record-flood peaks
(the river genuinely ran at 201-226% of channel capacity). The cap is
now 500%, and an out-of-range percent nulls that auxiliary field
instead of discarding the whole row (water level and discharge are the
data that matter). Surfaced by the user's historical backfill log.
Hour-by-hour chart of the 25-28 Sep 2025 event as forecast by the exact
deployed configuration (trained through 2024, event unseen): first alert
26 Sep 18:00, flooding began 27 Sep 18:00 (24 h lead), predicted peak
4.00 m vs actual 3.93 m. The near-miss 3.51 m crest on 26 Sep correctly
never alerted.
- river dash animation now flows at a speed continuously derived from
each segment's discharge (period 260/(Q+45) s, clamped 0.5-5.5 s) via
inline per-path animation-duration, so it updates live and per-frame
during the replay (CSS speed classes removed - setStyle cannot change
classes)
- the replay drives the Combined discharge and Strongest flow stat
tiles each frame (marked '2024 replay'), restored on finish
- docs: hour-by-hour detection detail render (22-28 Sep 2024) showing
the model alert at 24 Sep 01:00, flooding at 25 Sep 01:00, and the
24 h warning between them; embedded with commentary
- Matrix alerts now link to https://water.buildfor.life/ (override via
ALERT_DASHBOARD_URL), replacing the Grafana public dashboard link
docs/img/backtest-2024-p1.png: observed P.1 level vs the 24h-ahead
predicted peak issued at each hour by a model trained only on pre-flood
data, with the warning-probability panel below (first alert 24 Sep
01:00, 24 h before flooding began). Embedded in FLOOD_FORECASTING.md's
headline-validation section with an honest reading, including the
~0.4 m peak under-prediction.
Replay pacing is now adaptive: 4 h/frame through quiet days, 2 h when
risk is elevated, 1 h (hour-by-hour) while the model is alerting or the
river is near/above flood stage - so viewers can watch the detection
sequence unfold.
The 2024 snapshot now carries a model track: p_warning and predicted
24 h peak from HGB heads trained ONLY on pre-flood data (an honest
backtest, cutoff 2024-08-31), plus its calibration sigma. During replay:
- the map clock shows the system's state at each moment: 'model: no
flood expected' -> 'elevated risk' -> amber 'MODEL ALERT - flooding
within 24 h likely (predicted peak X m)' -> red 'FLOODING' once the
river actually crosses stage 1. First alert fires 24 Sep 01:00, a
full day before the water crossed the flood line on 25 Sep.
- the flood-risk outlook stage chips re-render each frame from the
historic model prediction (sigmoid over the stage levels), so the
whole outlook panel time-travels with the map.
The replay now drives the entire map from a 120 kB all-station snapshot
(static/flood-2024-all.json: 649 hourly frames x 16 stations of level +
discharge, forward-filled on an aligned grid):
- station markers recolor/resize per frame from historic discharge
- river segments restyle per frame (color/width from the same
nearest-gauge grading as live mode)
- flood zones flood/recede from P.1's historic level
- a large clock overlay on the map shows replay date/time, P.1 level
and total basin flow
- the LIVE DATA pill switches to an amber '2024 REPLAY' (or
'SIMULATION' for the demo_level/demo_rise hooks) and back on finish
- replay end or stop restores the live view via a full dashboard reload
Replaces the P.1-only snapshot (flood-2024-p1.json removed).
- header button 'Replay Oct 2024 flood': animates the real Sep 15 -
Oct 12 2024 P.1 hourly series (~45 s) through the flood-zone display;
zones flood blue as the river climbs to the 5.30 m record and recede
as it falls; click again to stop; restores live state when done
- replay reads a pre-extracted 15 kB static snapshot
(static/flood-2024-p1.json, 335 frames) instead of pulling the 4.6 MB
all-time history on every click; falls back to the history API if the
snapshot is missing
- demo hooks for testing/presentations: ?demo_level=4.4 pins a simulated
P.1 level, ?demo_rise=1 animates rising water to 5.30 m; both label
the outlook line as SIMULATION with the real level alongside
When P.1's current level reaches a zone's trigger level the zone fills
water-blue (solid border, .62 opacity) instead of the amber risk ramp,
and the zone layer adds itself to the map automatically - no toggle
needed during an actual flood. A manual hide sets a session flag so
auto-show does not fight the user.
src/static/custom-markers.json holds user points of interest
({name, lat, lon, optional note}); the dashboard renders them as pin
markers whose popups show which inundation zone the point sits in, its
P.1 trigger level, and the live 24 h exceedance probability (ray-cast
point-in-polygon against the zone geojson; smallest matching zone wins).
Seeded with the owner's four properties.
The 7 Chiang Mai inundation zones are now hand-traced by the project
owner against the real basemap (cnx_flood.geojson), replacing the
scan-digitized approximation and its georeferencing error entirely.
Features are ordered zone 7 -> 1 so the earlier-flooding (smaller)
zones render on top of the wider extents in Leaflet.
The P.1 marker (Nawarat Bridge, 18.7875) sat inside zone 2 near its top
edge, but the bridge IS Chang Khlan's northern boundary - the layer was
~0.0095 deg too far north (the district-centroid correction in c4e0fb6
overshot). Zone 2's north edge now lands at the bridge.
The previous affine fit slid along the mostly north-south river (an
ill-conditioned direction) leaving the zones ~1 km south-west of their
true position. New approach: extract the scanned river band by color,
match it to the OSM Ping mainstem centerline by arc length (which pins
the along-river position), then correct residual translation using
known district locations cross-checked against the river residual
(533 m -> ~300 m median; Chang Khlan zone centroid now within 200 m).
Mountain-area artifacts are clipped away via the municipality hull.
Zones were also nearly invisible at fillOpacity 0.16 - base opacity is
now 0.38, rising with the live 24 h exceedance probability, and 0.72
with a solid red border once the river is at or above a zone's level.
Digitize the 7 Chiang Mai inundation zones from the municipal map into
geojson polygons: pixels classified by legend color, vectorized via
marching squares, and georeferenced by a 6-parameter affine fitted
least-squares to the OSM Ping centerline (109 m median residual after
outlier-filtered refits - the scanned image overlay could never scale
correctly and is removed).
The dashboard renders the zones as a Leaflet geoJSON layer styled live
from the forecast: fill opacity scales with each zone's 24 h exceedance
probability, zones whose trigger level the river has already reached get
a solid red border, and each polygon's popup shows its trigger level and
live probability. Zone styles refresh with every forecast load.
From the adversarial review and threshold backtest (swarm verification):
- predict.py: when a bundle's trained thresholds differ from the current
config (deploy before retrain), skip its stale classifier heads and
derive p_warning/p_danger from the regression + sigma against the
CURRENT thresholds - the dashboard can no longer show contradictory
old-threshold classifier output next to new-threshold stages
- features.py: decouple the low-coverage regression-label rescue from
the warning threshold (now the station's own p97.5 level); the old
coupling silently dropped 34% of P.5's regression training rows and
cost +46% MAE when its threshold rose
- features.py: P.82 danger 3.80 -> 3.75 (3.80 was above the station's
8-year maximum of 3.78, so danger could never train or fire)
- data.py / predict.py: anchor models/cache paths to the repo root; the
relative paths silently returned zero rows when run from another CWD
- annotate P.4A thresholds as low-confidence (11 supporting readings)
47 tests pass. Retrain required for the label-rescue and P.82 changes
to reach the classifier heads.
The push-CI gates (black/isort/mypy) had never actually run before the
branch-trigger fix, and the codebase predates them. Formatting is now
black/isort clean repo-wide. mypy keeps running but non-blocking: 86
pre-existing errors are a separate cleanup, not a gate to hold hostage.
Workflows listened on 'main'/'develop' but the repo's default branch is
master, so push events never started a job (every historical run is a
schedule event). Point push/PR triggers and the deploy-gate refs at
master, and trim the test matrix to 3.11/3.12 to match
requires-python >=3.11.
Replace the network-wide (3.0, 4.5) m thresholds with per-station values
calibrated from the DB's discharge_percent (RID % of channel capacity):
warning = median level at 75-85% capacity, danger = median at 95-105%.
Fixes P.103 over-alerting (bank-full ~6.75 m, not 4.5) and P.67
under-alerting (overflow ~2.9 m). Requires a retrain to take effect in
the classifier heads.
P.1 uses the official Chiang Mai municipal inundation map instead:
warning 3.70 m (stage 1, city flooding begins), danger 4.20 m (stage 5),
with the full 7-stage table (3.70-4.60 m + discharge) in
features.P1_FLOOD_STAGES. Forecast rows for P.1 now include per-stage
exceedance probabilities computed from the regression head + calibration
sigma - available immediately without retraining.
Dashboard: "Chiang Mai city flood outlook" block above the forecast grid
(predicted peak + 7 stage-probability chips) and a toggleable
georeferenced overlay of the official flood-zone map
(static/flood-zones-p1.jpg, bounds tunable in FLOOD_ZONE_BOUNDS).
scikit-learn 1.9.0 supports only Python >=3.11, so uv could not resolve
the >=3.9 range. The deployment runs 3.11. Also pins numpy back to
1.26.4 in the lockfile (pandas 2.0.3 ABI).
Add src/ml/ package predicting, per station and per 6/12/24 h horizon,
the probability of exceeding warning (3.0 m) and danger (4.5 m) levels
plus expected peak level, trained on the 592k-row PostgreSQL history:
- features.py: hourly grid with coverage gating and no future leakage;
upstream stations enter at empirically measured travel-time lags
(P.20 +17h ... P.103 +1h vs P.1); hour-of-day deliberately excluded
(it encodes the scrape schedule, not hydrology)
- train.py: HistGradientBoosting regression + warn/danger classifier
heads per station x horizon, >=30-positives gate with calibrated
sigmoid-on-regression fallback, strict temporal splits, per-event
lead-time evaluation; guards against sklearn 1.9.0 crash on
degenerate feature columns
- predict.py: bundle loading with feature-name checks, heuristic
fallback tier, get_latest_forecasts() for the API; raises when no
models are trained so the endpoint 503s instead of serving
persistence output as forecasts
- data.py: Postgres-first loader (FLOOD_ML_DB_URL override), HTTP API
fallback (flagged: that path backfills synthetic discharge), csv.gz
cache
- /forecast endpoint (15-min TTL cache) + dashboard flood-risk panel
(hidden until models exist)
- docs/FLOOD_FORECASTING.md: full system doc with measured deployment
numbers (~335 MB RSS, CPU negligible, ~6 min full retrain) and
retraining policy
Validation: out-of-sample backtest of the record 2024 flood season
(train <= Aug 2024) alerted 24-48 h ahead of the Oct 5 peak; 2025-26
test split: P.1 6h PR-AUC 0.974, recall 98.3% at 1% false-alarm rate.
Also: fix P.81 station coordinates (was Ban Pong/Ratchaburi, 493 km
out of basin; now 18.6936 N 99.0819 E per RID station page), pin
scikit-learn==1.9.0 and numpy<2, gitignore model artifacts (~100 MB,
train on the server via scripts/train_flood_model.py).
Station selection showed no history since 21ca844: Chart.js v4 datasets
had parsing:false with plain number arrays, drawing empty axes. Remove
the flag so the chart parses values again.
Backend hardening for the same flow:
- /measurements/history/{code} no longer 503s on non-Postgres configs;
it falls back to the configured adapter (reversed to ascending order)
- DB_TYPE defaults to postgresql when POSTGRES_CONNECTION_STRING is set
and DB_TYPE is unset, so the .env psql wins over the sqlite default
- zero readings (0.0) are no longer coerced to None, which would fail
MeasurementResponse validation and 500 /measurements/latest
Map visualization:
- river segments are now colored, widened and dash-speed-animated by
the discharge at the nearest gauge (same scale as the marker legend)
- fix z-order bug that drew the animated flow line behind its casing
- legend entries for river lines, reduced-motion fallback
River geometry: rebuild ping-river-network.geojson from Overpass
(110 -> 202 features), restoring missing Ping mainstem reaches through
the Bhumibol reservoir and the Tak-Kamphaeng Phet braided section
(unnamed waterway=river ways in OSM), with short synthetic connectors
(connector: true) bridging remaining sub-8 km holes.
Extract the inline root() dashboard markup into src/static/dashboard.html,
loaded once at import. Keeps HTML out of the Python module (web_api 616 -> 576
lines) with a defensive fallback if the file is missing.
Full <500 compliance for web_api still needs the endpoints split into
APIRouter modules; tracked as remaining #4 work.
Cover the previously-untested, highest-risk parsing in
fetch_water_data_for_date by mocking the HTTP call:
- hour 1-23 map to the same day; hour 24 rolls to next-day midnight
- qvalues "***" / None yield discharge None (no crash)
- None water level is skipped
- out-of-range (0, 25) and empty hourlytime rows are skipped
- missing "rows" key returns an empty list
This gives the scraper a safety net before its module is split.
Move the seven request/response models out of web_api.py into a dedicated
src/schemas.py (separation of concerns; first step of the file-size cleanup).
web_api.py imports them back, so behaviour is unchanged.
Note: web_api.py is still over the 500-line guideline; the remaining bulk is
the inline HTML dashboard in root(), to be extracted in a follow-up.
- tests/conftest.py: put repo root on sys.path so `import src...` resolves
under pytest regardless of invocation directory.
- test_matrix_formatting.py: lock in HTML formatted_body + plain-text fallback,
URL linkification, HTML escaping, and send_alert field rendering.
- test_station_persistence.py: cover default-load, save/reload round-trip
(incl. Thai text), runtime-file precedence, and atomic-write cleanup.
These are real assert-based tests (unlike the existing print-style scripts) so
CI can gate on them. 13 tests, all passing.
- .env now chmod 0600 and APP_DIR chmod 0750 after chown, so the Matrix token
and DB credentials are not world-readable.
- uv auto-install (curl | sh as root) is now opt-in via AUTO_INSTALL_UV=1 and
pins a specific uv version; otherwise the script requires uv to be
pre-installed and fails with instructions, avoiding unattended remote code
execution as root.
- scripts/install.sh: one-command hardened deploy (creates the water-monitor
system user, deploys to /opt, builds a uv-managed venv, installs and enables
the systemd unit). Idempotent; excludes .env/*.db/stations.json from sync so
runtime state is preserved.
- Fix placeholder Documentation= URL in water-monitor.service.
- README: document the script as the primary systemd install path, with manual
steps kept as a fallback.
grabowski