grabowski
89da2af9c3
All sums and conversions reviewer-recomputed; every block carries its basis (quote, researched range, or marked estimate)
3.4 KiB
3.4 KiB
Total Investment: Rough Picture
Everything priced or estimated so far, rolled into one view. Blocks marked "estimate" have no vendor confirmation; the rest trace to quotes or the researched ranges in this repo. Treat all figures as budgetary with a wide margin (plus or minus 30 to 50% on the estimates) until RFQs replace them. FX: ~38 THB/EUR. Compiled July 2026.
Full vision, all blocks
| Block | Low (EUR) | High (EUR) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbilt semi-auto line, full Duplex | 300,000 | 320,000 | 2024 quote 200,500 + quoted 2nd press/extruder ~100,000; expired, needs re-quote |
| 2 automated presses (Pheenix AD12) | 500,000 | 800,000 | unverified ~$340k/press indicative + delivery and commissioning |
| Galvanics line (Digital Matrix) | 280,000 | 560,000 | six-figure-USD turnkey inference from vendor research |
| Zero-discharge water treatment (ZLD) | 80,000 | 210,000 | utilities CSV option row, 3-8M THB |
| Stamper prep (Sibert VSP, VSF, VSC) | 50,000 | 150,000 | estimate, pricing unpublished |
| Mastering and cutting room (Agnew lathe and head, cutter amps, console, room treatment) | 250,000 | 500,000 | estimate, bespoke market |
| Metrology and QC stack (confocal, profiler, XRF, inline vision, audio station) | 300,000 | 700,000 | estimate, phaseable |
| Utilities, solar, HVAC, racking baseline | 630,000 | 1,100,000 | reviewed utilities CSV, 23.98-41.63M THB |
| Building ~1,500 m² plus civil works | 560,000 | 950,000 | estimate at 12,000-20,000 THB/m² Thai industrial construction plus ~20% site works |
| Land 6-8 rai, if purchased | 315,000 | 840,000 | estimate at 2-4M THB/rai industrial; leasing cuts this to near zero upfront |
| Traceability and factory software | 50,000 | 150,000 | estimate |
| Freight, installation, training (non-Newbilt equipment) | 100,000 | 200,000 | estimate |
| Working capital, PVC stock, spares | 100,000 | 200,000 | estimate |
| Subtotal | ~3,500,000 | ~6,700,000 | |
| Contingency 15% | ~500,000 | ~1,000,000 | |
| Total, full vision | ~4,000,000 | ~7,700,000 | ~150M to 290M THB |
Phased entry
A credible launch phase is far smaller, roughly 1.5M to 2.5M EUR:
- Newbilt Single system (not Duplex yet)
- Bridge stampers from Stamper Discs, so no galvanics line at launch
- Basic QC (microscope, benchtop PVC lab, sampled listening), full metrology deferred
- Leased building instead of purchase, modest first solar array
- Galvanics, automated presses, full metrology, and the biomass boiler follow as revenue-funded or second-round expansions
The planning already supports this: the Duplex-ready hydraulics, the bridge-supplier role for Stamper Discs, the staged electric-to-biomass steam path, and the phaseable metrology stack are all documented for exactly this reason.
What moves the number
- BOI: machinery duty exemption applies across most of the equipment blocks, and the solar and automation spend converts into CIT-exemption headroom; the application precedes every purchase order (see boi.md)
- Buy vs lease on land and building swings roughly 0.9M to 1.8M EUR of upfront capital
- Biggest uncertainty bands: metrology (partly a choice of ambition), the mastering/cutting room (bespoke vendor, no public pricing), the automated presses (single unverified price point), and land
- Every band narrows only with RFQs; the supplier map in equipment-suppliers.md lists who to ask